PCE通胀

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金十图示:2025年06月19日(周四)美联储经济预期
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:18
Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, with a long-term forecast also at 1.8% [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 4.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 4.2% [2] - PCE inflation is forecasted at 3.0% for 2025, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term target of 2.0% [2] - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 3.1% in 2025, dropping to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term goal of 2.0% [2] - The federal funds rate is projected to be 3.9% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 3.0% [2]
美联储经济预期中的图表显示,FOMC与会者中多数认为PCE通胀、核心PCE通胀面临的不确定性更高,风险倾向上行。
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:07
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook indicates that most FOMC participants perceive higher uncertainty regarding PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, with an upward risk bias [1]
City Index和Forex.com的Fawad Razaqzada:疲软的(PCE通胀)数据可能会加速美联储降息。美联储现在更有可能更快出手降息以支撑疲软的经济,而疲软的数据可能也会促使特朗普放松关税,更快达成协议。
news flash· 2025-04-30 21:53
Core Viewpoint - Weak PCE inflation data may accelerate the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to support a sluggish economy, which could also prompt Trump to ease tariffs and reach agreements more quickly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is now more likely to act quickly on interest rate cuts due to weak economic data [1] - Weak data may lead to a faster resolution of trade agreements by prompting tariff relaxations [1]