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申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250923
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices dropped, then strengthened again starting Friday evening and reached new highs this week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The market anticipates further rate cuts in the remaining two meetings this year. Despite the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts under Trump's pressure, the outlook for rate cuts is clear. The strong US retail sales in August and progress in trade negotiations have led to expectations of investment growth in Q4. The long - term drivers for gold remain clear due to the US fiscal deficit, expanding debt, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. After a short - term adjustment, the expectation of continued Fed rate cuts has sustained bullish sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - **Precious Metal Futures Prices**: The prices of SHFE gold and silver futures contracts (2510 and 2512) all increased, with silver showing higher percentage increases. For example, the price of SHFE silver 2512 rose by 3.78% to 10348.00, and SHFE gold 2512 rose by 2.46% to 850.98 [2] - **Precious Metal Futures Positions and Volumes**: The trading volumes and open interests of SHFE gold and silver futures contracts were relatively large. For instance, the trading volume of SHFE silver 2512 was 571883, and its open interest was 433982 [2] - **Precious Metal Futures Premiums**: The spot premiums of SHFE gold and silver futures were all negative [2] Spot Market - **Precious Metal Spot Prices**: The prices of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold T + D, and Shanghai silver T + D all increased. London silver had a relatively high increase of 1.21%, reaching 843.32 dollars per ounce [2] - **Precious Metal Spot Ratios**: The ratios between different precious metal spot prices and futures prices showed some changes. For example, the ratio of gold to silver decreased from 84.04 to 83.10 [2] Inventory - **Precious Metal Inventories**: The inventory of SHFE gold increased by 999.00 kilograms to 57429 kilograms, while the inventory of SHFE silver decreased by 44080.00 kilograms to 1159443 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 183001.68 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 43194 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - **Related Market Indexes**: The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.6519, the S&P index increased by 0.49% to 6664.36, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.73% to 4.14, and Brent crude oil price decreased slightly by 0.01% to 66.05. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate increased by 0.15% to 7.1196 [2] ETF and CFTC Data - **ETF Holdings**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1.00 ton to 44315 tons [2] - **CFTC Speculative Positions**: The net long positions of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while those in gold decreased by 1451 [2] Macro News - **Argentina's Situation**: Argentine President Milei is negotiating to curb market selling and avoid a debt crisis and plans to meet with US President Trump in New York on Tuesday [3] - **Fed Officials' Statements**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some are cautious about canceling restrictive monetary policies, some support the recent rate cut as an insurance measure, and some oppose further rate cuts due to high inflation. However, newly - appointed Fed理事Milan is strongly dovish and calls for significant and rapid rate cuts [3] - **US Economic Data**: US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% (estimated 0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth [3] - **US Trade Negotiations**: There are multi - party progress in US trade negotiations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation may be limited [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250919
Group 1: Market Data - The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 825.86 and 828.08 respectively; the current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9869.00 and 9902.00 respectively [2] - The price changes of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 1.76 and 1.26 respectively, with price change rates of 0.21% and 0.15% respectively; the price changes of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 61.00 and 67.00 respectively, with price change rates of 0.62% and 0.68% respectively [2] - The open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 87731 and 228640 respectively; the open interest of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 144039 and 395854 respectively [2] - The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 192704 and 221255 respectively; the trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 301538 and 646031 respectively [2] - The spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are -1.33 and -3.55 respectively; the spot premiums and discounts of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are -58.00 and -91.00 respectively [2] - The price changes of Shanghai Gold T+D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/ounce) are -5.72, -2.62, and -15.12 respectively, with price change rates of -0.69%, -0.31%, and -0.41% respectively; the price change of Shanghai Silver T+D is -65.00, with a price change rate of -0.66%; the price change of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 0.16, with a price change rate of 0.38% [2] - The current values of the differences between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2510, and between Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2510 are 2.22 and 33 respectively; the current value of the gold/silver ratio (spot) is 84.04; the current values of the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.04 and 7.30 respectively [2] - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 56,430 kg and 1,203,523 kg respectively; the current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 39,280,534 and 524,086,477 respectively [2] - The current values of the US Dollar Index, S&P Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and USD/CNY are 97.3696, 6631.96, 4.11, 66.97, and 7.1087 respectively; their changes are 0.34%, 0.48%, 1.23%, 0.01%, and 0.09% respectively [2] - The current holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each; the current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - In July, non-US investors increased their holdings of US Treasuries, with the total holdings reaching a record high. Japan's holdings of US Treasuries increased by $3.8 billion to $1.1514 trillion; the UK's holdings increased by $41.3 billion to $899.3 billion, reaching a record high. Mainland China's holdings decreased by $25.7 billion to $730.7 billion; Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion to $381.4 billion, the lowest since April [3] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The expected number was 240,000, and the previous value was revised from 263,000 to 264,000. Although the number of initial claims decreased, the number of continued claims remained above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3] Group 3: Core Views and Strategies - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a risk - management move, in line with market expectations. Only newly - appointed Fed Governor Milan supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [4] - The dot - plot shows that the Fed's current neutral expectation is to cut interest rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and to below 3.5% next year. Under Trump's continuous pressure, the Fed's stance on rate cuts remains cautious [4] - The US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% (the forecast was 0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. The CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core inflation remained at 3.1% year - on - year [4] - Multiple data this month show a weak employment market in the US economy, especially the non - farm payrolls of 22,000, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000. Trade negotiations have shown multiple developments, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The market is still observing the continuation of the impact of tariff inflation [4] - The US fiscal deficit and debt continue to expand, and central banks represented by China continue to increase their gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold are still clear. Due to the lack of expectations for recession - style rate cuts, attention should be paid to the adjustment of profit - taking after the short - term expectations are fulfilled [4]
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250915
申银万国期货研究所 林新杰(从业编号:F3032999 交易咨询号:Z0014722) 20250915申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | 期 | 现价 | 834.00 | 836.00 | 10051.00 | 10075.00 | | | | 前收盘价 | 830.78 | 832.84 | 9798.00 | 9821.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 3.22 | 3.16 | 253.00 | 254.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.39% | 0.38% | 2.58% | 2.59% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 114423 | 210404 | 203343 | 353668 | | | | 成交量 | 165360 | 107160 | 301985 | 196315 | | | | 现货升贴水 | -7. ...
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250912
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Gold has entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the weak employment data further confirmed the prospect of a rate cut in September, which boosted gold prices. The market is speculating on a 50bp rate cut, but multiple rate cuts within the year are more likely. Gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, but short - term adjustments due to profit - taking should be noted [5] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - For gold futures contracts (沪金2510 and 沪金2512), prices decreased with a decline of 0.18% and 0.13% respectively. For silver futures contracts (沪银2510 and 沪银2512), prices increased by 0.90% and 0.93% respectively [2] Spot Market - In the spot market, the prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D decreased, while the price of London Silver increased by 0.87% [2] Inventory - The inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4,200 kg, while the inventory of silver decreased by 11,983 kg. COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,384,668 [2] Related Derivatives - The SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 1 ton each. The CFTC net long position for silver increased by 481, while that for gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Group 4: Macro News Summary - US August CPI data was released, with CPI同比 at 2.9% (in line with expectations), CPI环比 at 0.4% (slightly higher than expected), and core CPI同比 at 3.1% and环比 at 0.3% (both in line with expectations and previous values). The number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021. After the data release, traders fully priced in three rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [3] - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves (excluding the Fed) has exceeded US Treasuries for the first time since 1996 [3] - The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, believing that inflation pressure has been effectively curbed and the euro - zone economy remains robust. Traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy, suggesting that the rate - cut cycle has ended [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250904
Report Overview - The report is a daily strategy report on precious metals by Shenwan Futures, covering market data, macro news, and analysis of precious metal trends [1] Market Data Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 821.68 and 823.66 respectively, with daily increases of 0.83% and 0.86%. Their trading volumes are 265,502 and 111,269, and open interests are 142,330 and 193,360 [2] - **Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9,918.00 and 9,940.00 respectively, with daily increases of 1.00% and 0.98%. Their trading volumes are 627,101 and 238,141, and open interests are 270,592 and 333,080 [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: Shanghai Gold T+D closed at 809.97 the previous day, up 1.27% with a gain of 10.19. London Gold closed at 817.04, up 0.77% with a gain of 6.27 [2] - **Silver Spot**: Shanghai Silver T+D closed at 9,780.00 the previous day, down 0.20% with a loss of 20.00. London Silver closed at 41.19, up 0.91% with a gain of 0.37 [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,251 kilograms, an increase of 627 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 38,957,798 ounces [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,207,227 kilograms, an increase of 11,231 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,164,636 ounces to 516,067,724 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US Dollar Index is 98.1485, up 0.29% from the previous day. The S&P Index is 6,460.26, down 0.64%. The US Treasury yield is 4.22%, down 1.40%. Brent crude oil is at $67.39, up 0.01%. The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1221, up 0.02% [2] Macro News - The Fed's latest Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed in recent weeks. Consumer spending is flat or declining as wages fail to keep up with price increases. All regions reported price increases, with 10 reporting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 reporting "strong input price growth" [3] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings in July dropped to 7.181 million from a revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and well below the expected 7.382 million [3] - Fed Governor Waller suggests starting interest - rate cuts this month and making multiple cuts in the coming months, but remains open to the specific pace. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem believes the current interest - rate level is suitable for the economic environment [3] - The final Eurozone Composite PMI for August slightly rose to 51, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary value, reaching a 12 - month high. The Services PMI dropped from 51 in July to 50.5 [3] Analysis and Strategy - Gold and silver have strengthened, with gold showing a convergent breakout. The market is focused on Friday's non - farm payroll data [3] - The decrease in US job openings, Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, and the proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list have influenced the market [3] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting are considered dovish, increasing expectations of a September interest - rate cut. Coupled with disappointing July non - farm payroll data, it is beneficial for precious metals [3] - The Fed's internal views are divided. Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. However, due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, the Fed may still take a preventive approach to interest - rate cuts in September [3] - Trade negotiations have shown progress, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases support the long - term trend of gold [3] - Overall, gold and silver are likely to show a stronger trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the Fed's independence. The market is focused on this week's non - farm payroll data [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250822
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Gold and silver are oscillating, and the market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Last week's unexpectedly high US inflation data pressured gold and silver, while positive signals from recent US - Russia negotiations eased geopolitical risks. The July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but there are divided views within the Fed, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations. Trade negotiations have made progress in multiple aspects, but the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China provides long - term support for gold, but gold is hesitant to rise at current high prices. Overall, gold and silver may show an oscillating trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts intensifies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 776.08 and 778.06 respectively, with daily changes of 0.96 and 0, and daily change rates of 0.12% and 0.00%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9233.00 and 9253.00 respectively, with daily changes of 71.00 and 69.00, and daily change rates of 0.77% and 0.75% [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 183215 and 133322 respectively, and the trading volumes are 128755 and 23298 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 307098 and 228190 respectively, and the trading volumes are 311338 and 67972 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.42 and - 6.40 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 89.00 and - 109.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.66 and 770.79 respectively, with daily changes of 1.83 and - 1.59, and daily change rates of 0.24% and - 0.21%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.935, with a daily change of - 8.4 and a daily change rate of - 0.25%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver were 9144.00 and 38.12 respectively, with daily changes of 122.00 and 0.27, and daily change rates of 1.35% and 0.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 1.98, 20, 84.39, 7.19, and 7.46 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.08, 22, 85.33, 7.15, and 7.41 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 36,642 kg and 1,115,055 kg respectively, with changes of 60.00 kg and - 25,144.00 kg compared to the previous values. The current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 38,573,764 and 508,499,193 respectively, with a change of 9,952.03 for COMEX gold and 0 for COMEX silver [2] Related Assets - **Values and Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6526, 6370.17, 4.33, 67.67, and 7.1833 respectively, with changes of 0.42%, - 0.40%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.03% compared to the previous values [2] Derivatives - **Holdings and Changes**: The current holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Macroeconomic Information - **Trade Agreement**: The EU and the US issued a joint statement detailing a new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and plans to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips by 2028 [3] - **Renewable Energy Stance**: US President Trump criticized renewable energy as a "century - long scam". Even though the electricity demand in some US regions significantly exceeds supply, the US government will not approve new wind or photovoltaic projects. Trump blames the rising electricity prices in the US on renewable energy [3] - **PMI Data**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service industry PMI slightly dropped to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3] - **Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - **Real Estate Data**: The National Association of Realtors in the US stated that the annualized sales of second - hand homes in July increased by 2% to 4.01 million units, higher than the market expectation of 3.92 million units. The median price of second - hand homes increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the slowest increase in two years [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250820
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver, and recent positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut. Although the employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts all declined, with the decline rates of Shanghai gold futures at -0.32% and that of Shanghai silver futures at -1.37% and -1.35% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of spot gold and silver also decreased, with the decline rate of London silver reaching -1.66%. The price differences between different contracts and the ratios of Shanghai gold/silver to London gold/silver changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX changed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory increasing by 11,020 kilograms and the COMEX's gold inventory decreasing by 17,425.86 ounces [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators**: The US dollar index rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index fell by -0.59%, the US Treasury yield decreased by -0.92%, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased slightly [2]. Macro News - Trump stated that the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. The US planned a tripartite meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest [3]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50% [3]. - Japan and the US planned to closely discuss the implementation of a $550 billion investment in the US and set up a mechanism to verify national interests [3]. - The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the US in July increased by 5.2%, reaching 1.428 million units, higher than market expectations [3]. Comments and Strategies - The unexpected inflation data in the US last week pressured gold and silver, and the positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut [4]. - Previously, the US Treasury Secretary believed that there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, but the inflation data has changed this expectation [4]. - The employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, but the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4].
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250818
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week's unexpected inflation data pressured gold and silver. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, far higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and 3.3% year - on - year, hitting a five - month high, cooling the expectation of significant interest rate cuts. However, the employment market's weakening may support gold and silver prices. The overall trade environment is still deteriorating, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" is pushing up the US fiscal deficit expectation. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts warms up [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 775.08 and 777.18 respectively, with price drops of - 0.72 and - 0.62, and declines of - 0.09% and - 0.08%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9217.00 and 9236.00 respectively, with price increases of 13.00 and 10.00, and rises of 0.14% and 0.11% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 160609 and 30505, and the open interests are 197655 and 131073. The trading volumes of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 420183 and 93581, and the open interests are 346128 and 224024 [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 1.99 and - 4.09, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 29.00 and - 48.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 773.09, 770.26, and 9188.00 respectively. The price changes are - 2.01, 0.47, and - 86.00, and the changes are - 0.26%, 0.06%, and - 0.93%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver is 37.99, with a price increase of 0.01 and a rise of 0.03% [2] - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.10, 19, 84.14, 7.21, and 7.52 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 2.00, 22, 83.58, 7.23, and 7.60 [2] Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current inventories of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 36,345 kg, 1,141,555 kg, 38,636,332, and 507,551,254 respectively. The changes are - (no change), - 9,227.00 kg, - 6,088.67, and 536643 [2] Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury Yield, Brent Crude Oil, and USD/CNY are 97.8467, 6449.8, 4.33, 66.13, and 7.1891 respectively. The changes are - 0.36%, - 0.29%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.09% [2] Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2] Macro News - **Geopolitical News**: US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on August 18, and there may be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia has made "some concessions" on five Ukrainian regions, and Putin has agreed to include a "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee clause in the future peace agreement. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - **Economic Data**: The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year, far higher than expectations. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, slightly higher than expected. The July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down [3]
20250731申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250731
Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core View - Gold continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but two Fed officials voted against the decision. Powell stated that no decision has been made on the first rate cut in September as expected by the market, but "downside risks in the labor market are obvious." With the progress of trade negotiations, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold prices weakened continuously. Silver also declined against the backdrop of an overall correction in industrial products. After the US reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, risk aversion cooled, but there is still some uncertainty in China-US negotiations. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, but rates are expected to remain unchanged in July, and the market is speculating on a possible rate cut in September. Recent US economic data shows resilience, US CPI has rebounded, and the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, with subsequent impacts likely to gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill further boosts expectations of US fiscal deficits, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long-term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For Shanghai Gold 2510, the current price is 770.68, down 3.10 (-0.40%) from the previous close, with an open interest of 214,105 and trading volume of 206,379. For Shanghai Gold 2512, the current price is 772.76, down 3.00 (-0.39%), with an open interest of 115,693 and trading volume of 25,383. For Shanghai Silver 2510, the current price is 9,090.00, down 102.00 (-1.11%), with an open interest of 392,370 and trading volume of 689,866. For Shanghai Silver 2512, the current price is 9,110.00, down 103.00 (-1.12%), with an open interest of 210,377 and trading volume of 71,085 [2] Spot Market - The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 769.48, up 2.29 (0.30%); the previous closing price of London Gold was 758.13, down 9.39 (-1.22%); the previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 9,166.00, up 3.00 (0.03%); the previous closing price of London Silver was 37.10, down 1.10 (-2.87%) [2] Inventory - The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 33,462 kg, an increase of 2,199.00 kg from the previous value; the current value of the silver inventory is 1,208,094 kg, an increase of 3,228.00 kg. The current value of COMEX gold inventory is 38,514,461, an increase of 347,929.37; the current value of COMEX silver inventory is 504,338,309, an increase of 2,041,750 [2] Related Derivatives - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.9684, up 1.06% from the previous value; the S&P index is 6,362.9, down 0.12%; the US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.92%; Brent crude oil is 72.75, up 0.01%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2123, up 0.44%. The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton; the SLV Silver ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481; the net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2] Macroeconomic News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time early today, in line with expectations. Powell said it's too early to say whether the Fed will cut rates in September as the financial market expects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1. The US GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 2.5%, down from 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3%. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations but still far below last year's average [3][4]
黄金:FOMC回落释放鹰派预期,白银:高位回落
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations; Gold trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from recent highs; Silver trend intensity is -1, also suggesting a bearish view [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: - Gold:沪金2510昨日收盘价773.78,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价770.68,夜盘跌幅0.32%;黄金T+D昨日收盘价769.48,日涨幅0.30%,夜盘收盘价767.00,夜盘跌幅0.32%;Comex黄金2510昨日收盘价3327.90,日涨幅0.08% [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日收盘价9192,日跌幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9090.00,夜盘跌幅1.32%;白银T+D昨日收盘价9166,日涨幅0.03%,夜盘收盘价9062,夜盘跌幅1.23%;Comex白银2510昨日收盘价37.175,日跌幅3.15% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金2510合约对2512合约价差昨日成交206,379,较前日减少13,553,持仓214,105,较前日增加1,698;Comex黄金2510昨日成交199,901,较前日增加90,801,持仓322,961,较前日增加256,168 [2]. - Silver:沪银2510昨日成交689,866,较前日增加97,939,持仓392,370,较前日减少373;Comex白银2510昨日成交71,289,较前日增加29,664,持仓121,325, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓955.37,较前日减少1;沪金库存33,462千克,较前日增加2,199;Comex黄金库存(前日)38,166,532金衡盎司,较前日增加132,494 [2]. - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓(前天)15,149.90,较前日减少24;沪银库存1,208,094千克,较前日增加3228;Comex白银库存(前日)502,296,559金衡盎司,较前日增加599,929 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU251 -价差昨日为 -4.30, unchanged from the previous day;买沪金12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为4.77,较前日减少0.87;黄金T+D对伦敦金的价差昨日为385.68,较前日减少0.60 [2]. - Silver:白银T+D对AG2510价差昨日为32,较前日增加6;沪银2510合约对2512合约价差昨日为 -8,441,较前日增加16;买沪银12月抛6月跨期套利成本昨日为73.41,较前日减少11.3;白银T+D对伦敦银的价差昨日为4,247,较前日减少799 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - 美元指数昨日为99.94,日涨幅1.05%;美元兑人民币(CNY即期)昨日为7.18,日涨幅0.04%;欧元兑美元昨日为1.15,较前日减少0.01;美元兑日元昨日为148.59,较前日增加0.05;英镑兑美元昨日为1.21, unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slowing economic growth. Powell did not provide guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2][4]. - **China's Policies**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide on the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyzed the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August [7]. - **Trade Policies**: Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, etc. (excluding cathode copper and refined copper), causing a 20% plunge in New York copper prices. The US suspended the minimum exemption for low - value goods. Trump said the US would impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, and announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, with South Korea to provide $350 billion in investment to the US. Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by seven days [7]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than expected. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations, but employers are more cautious about hiring decisions [7]. - **Natural Disaster**: An 8.8 - magnitude earthquake struck the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia, triggering a tsunami alert in the Pacific Rim, and China launched a second - level emergency response to marine disasters [5].