Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated May 27, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Co., Ltd. [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with support around 4750 yuan/ton. The supply side shows a decrease in PVC capacity utilization rate last week, while the demand side has a slight increase in downstream开工率. The inventory is in a destocking trend with limited pressure. However, factors such as the strengthening of caustic soda spot, potential passive increase in PVC supply due to liquid chlorine backlog, digestion of previous macro - positive factors, approaching traditional consumption off - season, and uncertainties in export markets and cost fluctuations will affect the market. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4793 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan; the trading volume is 839,870 lots, up 175,748 lots; the open interest is 1,018,526 lots, up 51,238 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 57,580 lots, down 20,462 lots. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China drops by 5 yuan/ton. The Chinese CIF price of PVC rises by 10 dollars/ton to 710 dollars/ton, and other international prices remain stable. The basis of PVC is - 119 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central, North, and Northwest China all decline, with decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia change, with a decrease of 14 dollars/ton in the Far East and an increase of 9 dollars/ton in Southeast Asia. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.19%, down 1.51%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC drops by 2.88% to 74.81%, while the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC rises by 2.05% to 79.78%. The total social inventory of PVC is 37.75 tons, down 1.96 tons, with a decrease in East China and an increase in South China. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.86, down 0.1. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment all increase. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC increase, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options decrease. [3] 3.7 Industry News - On May 27, the ex - warehouse spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 drops by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. From May 17 to 23, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 76.19%, down 1.51% month - on - month and up 0.67% year - on - year. As of May 22, the social inventory of PVC decreases by 2.84% month - on - month to 62.33 tons, down 29.49% year - on - year. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 65.10 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of suspended PVC production capacities will gradually increase, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The reduction of the US tariff rate on China is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by the uncertainty of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties and the rainy season; the US tariffs on Vietnam have not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene have remained stable recently. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4890 and resistance around 5060 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4986 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the trading volume was 1,532,605 lots, up 584,462 lots; the open interest was 988,857 lots, down 93,652 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 763,073 lots, down 9,277 lots; the short position was 808,218 lots, down 46,678 lots; the net long position was -45,145 lots, up 37,401 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4704.23 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4785.62 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -306 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.34% last week, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.43%, up 4.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.84%, up 1.99 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.7%, up 1.98 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.7%, up 1.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. - According to Longzhong Information, on May 13, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4720 yuan/ton. V2509 rose 3.02% to close at 4986 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC capacity utilization rate last week increased by 1.01% week - on - week to 80.34%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC last week increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9%. From May 3rd to 9th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, up 1.01% from the previous period. As of May 8th, the PVC social inventory of the new (41 - company) sample decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 65.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71% [3].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC social inventory maintained a destocking trend with a week-on-week decrease of 0.41% to 651,000 tons, indicating low inventory pressure. The number of PVC parking capacities will gradually increase in May, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days, which is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by BIS certification, anti-dumping tax uncertainty and the rainy season; the US tariff on Vietnam has not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price is expected to decline, but the uncertainty of power rationing still affects the future price; the ethylene US dollar market is in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4,770 and resistance around 4,900 [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,837 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the trading volume was 948,143 lots, down 197,842 lots; the open interest was 1,082,509 lots, up 18,197 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 772,350 lots, up 6,550 lots; the short positions were 854,896 lots, down 14,286 lots; the net long positions were -82,546 lots, up 20,836 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,683.08 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,754.38 yuan/ton, down 13.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the inventory in East China was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the inventory in South China was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.05%, down 1.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.85%, down 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.72%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.75%, down 1.1 percentage points [3] Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days. Considering the previous 20% tariff imposed by the US on fentanyl, the final tariff rate imposed by the US on China is 30%. On May 13, the cash - on - delivery price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,620 to 4,720 yuan/ton. V2509 opened higher and closed lower at 4,837 yuan/ton. From May 3 to 9, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points week - on - week. As of May 8, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory (41 companies) decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 651,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71%. From May 12 to 18, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13% and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the V2509 contract will fluctuate at a low level. The supply pressure is expected to increase due to the reduced marginal maintenance losses in May and the possible commissioning of Wanhua's 500,000 - ton facility. The export of Chinese PVC raw materials may be affected by factors such as the BIS certification and anti - dumping tax uncertainties in the Indian market, and the US tariff restrictions on Vietnamese PVC floor exports. [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2509) is 4,854 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; the trading volume is 542,507 lots, down 43,957 lots; the open interest is 969,200 lots, up 74,454 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 88,094 lots, down 25,878 lots. [3] 现货市场 - In the East China market, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,781.54 yuan/ton, down 24.62 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,848.75 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis is - 154 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan. [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China it is 2,823.33 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan, and in Northwest China it is 2,618 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 534 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia it is 551 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 196 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia it is 181 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars. [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.33%, up 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79%, up 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 80.19%, up 1.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 40.36 tons, down 1.7 tons; the inventory in East China is 36.18 tons, down 1.94 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.18 tons, up 0.24 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7,733.44 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan. [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.53%, up 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.71%, up 0.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.18%, up 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, up 0.13 percentage points. [3] Industry News - On May 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday, ranging from 4,630 to 4,780 yuan/ton. - From April 26 to May 2, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.33%, up 0.70% from the previous period. - As of April 24, the social inventory of PVC (41 samples from Longzhong) decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons. [3] Viewpoint Summary - The pipe production operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 48.34%, and the profile production operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points to 34.15%. The pre - holiday PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the maintenance loss of PVC will decrease marginally, and Wanhua's 500,000 - ton facility may be put into production, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. The Indian market is still affected by the uncertainties of BIS certification and anti - dumping tax; the export of Vietnamese PVC floors is restricted by US tariffs, which may affect China's PVC raw material exports. There is no sign of relief in the US tariff policy during the May Day holiday. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - V2509 fluctuates weakly, closing at 4,949 yuan/ton. The supply - side PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 1.29% week - on - week to 78.63% last week. The demand - side downstream PVC start - up rate increased by 0.07% week - on - week to 48.16%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.62% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate stable at 39.9%. As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% to 68.77 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend. The spring inspection intensity of PVC in April was less than in previous years. This week, affected by the restart of Bohua and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. PVC floor enterprises are affected by tariffs and stop production for observation, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate situation. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to an expected inventory build - up for PVC. V2509 has support around 4,900 yuan/ton and resistance around 5,050 yuan/ton [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,949 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the trading volume is 628,494 lots, down 93,658 lots; the open interest is 925,138 lots, up 14,879 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 735,797 lots, down 11,471 lots; the short position is 800,257 lots, down 11,778 lots; the net long position is - 64,460 lots, up 307 lots [3] 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4,818.46 yuan/ton, up 9.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,070 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4,875 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 169 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2,806.67 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2,588 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The VCM CFR Far East mid - price is 529 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia mid - price is 546 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East mid - price is 201 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia mid - price is 211 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [3] 4. Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC is 78.63%, up 1.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 78.64%, down 0.71 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.61%, up 6.52 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 42.06 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the total social inventory in East China is 38.12 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the total social inventory in South China is 3.94 million tons, down 0.68 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7,733.44 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3] 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.84%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.59%, up 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.58%, up 0.24 percentage points [3] 7. Industry News - On April 29, the cash - on - delivery price of Changzhou PVC SG5 in the warehouse decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4,720 to 4,860 yuan/ton. From April 19 to 25, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, up 1.29% week - on - week. As of April 24, the PVC social inventory (41 samples) decreased by 5.15% week - on - week to 68.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 28 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [4] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [4] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Closing price of PVC: 4989 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [3] - Trading volume of PVC: 722152 lots, up 102224 lots [3] - Open interest of PVC: 910259 lots, down 33564 lots [3] - Long positions of top 20 futures holders: 747268 lots, down 8122 lots [3] - Short positions of top 20 futures holders: 812035 lots, down 28438 lots [3] - Net long positions of top 20 futures holders: - 64767 lots, up 20316 lots [3] Spot Market - East China PVC (ethylene method): 5075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - East China PVC (calcium carbide method): 4809.23 yuan/ton, up 3.08 yuan [3] - South China PVC (ethylene method): 5070 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - South China PVC (calcium carbide method): 4865 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - China PVC CIF: 700 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Southeast Asia PVC CIF: 670 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Northwest Europe PVC FOB: 785 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - PVC basis: - 209 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - Calcium carbide (Central China): 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Calcium carbide (North China): 2806.67 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Calcium carbide (Northwest China): 2588 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Liquid chlorine (Inner Mongolia): 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - VCM CFR Far East: 529 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [3] - VCM CFR Southeast Asia: 546 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [3] - EDC CFR Far East: 201 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars [3] - EDC CFR Southeast Asia: 211 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - PVC capacity utilization rate: 78.63%, up 1.28% [3] - PVC (calcium carbide method) capacity utilization rate: 78.64%, down 0.71% [3] - PVC (ethylene method) capacity utilization rate: 78.61%, up 6.52% [3] - Total PVC social inventory: 42.06 tons, down 2.08 tons [3] - East China PVC social inventory: 38.12 tons, down 1.4 tons [3] - South China PVC social inventory: 3.94 tons, down 0.68 tons [3] Downstream Situation - National real - estate climate index: 93.96, up 0.16 [3] - Cumulative new housing construction area: 12996.46 square meters, up 6382.46 square meters [3] - Cumulative real - estate construction area: 613705.44 square meters, up 7733.44 square meters [3] - Cumulative real - estate development investment: 11002.02 billion yuan, up 4891.31 billion yuan [3] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of PVC: 15.81%, up 0.3% [3] - 40 - day historical volatility of PVC: 14.63%, up 0.12% [3] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put option of PVC: 21.34%, up 1.76% [3] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of PVC: 21.34%, up 1.75% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On April 28, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4750 - 4860 yuan/ton [3] - From April 19 to 25, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [3] - As of April 24, the PVC social inventory (41 samples) decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 68.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3] Group 4: Core View - V2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 4989 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 1.29% month - on - month to 78.63%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.07% month - on - month to 48.16%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.62% month - on - month to 49.06%, and the profile operating rate remained stable at 39.9%. As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 68.77 tons, maintaining a destocking trend. The spring inspection intensity of PVC in April was less than in previous years. This week, affected by the restart of Bohua and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue the upward trend. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are waiting and seeing due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate situation. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to an expected inventory build - up of PVC [3] - In terms of cost, this week, the calcium carbide supply in some areas has recovered, but power - rationing factors still exist; the downstream of ethylene US dollar goods is actively inquiring, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The support level of V2509 is around 4900, and the resistance level is around 5060 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry's supply side has seen some devices undergoing maintenance, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization rate. The demand side shows mixed trends, with PVC pipe production starting rate increasing slightly and profile production starting rate decreasing. PVC social inventory continues to decline. In April, domestic PVC devices are scheduled for centralized maintenance, and capacity utilization is expected to drop further. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream PVC flooring product enterprises have mostly shut down, while pipe and profile enterprises are less affected. Cost - wise, the price of calcium carbide is expected to decline slightly, and the price of ethylene has room to fall. For the V2509 contract, pay attention to the support around 5000 below and the resistance around 5160 above [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5054 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; trading volume is 368,542 lots, down 145,044 lots; open interest is 706,686 lots, up 258,548 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 759,979 lots, up 274 lots; the short position is 821,940 lots, up 789 lots; the net long position is - 61,961 lots, down 515 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5090 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4866.92 yuan/ton, down 23.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5120 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4953.75 yuan/ton, up 13.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton, both with no change. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 805 US dollars/ton with no change. The basis of PVC is - 111 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2950 yuan/ton with no change, in North China is 2865 yuan/ton with no change, and in Northwest China is 2617 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 541 US dollars/ton, both with no change. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 226 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 221 US dollars/ton, both with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly starting rate of PVC is 76.67%, down 3.35%; the starting rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.22%, down 3.18%; the starting rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.98%, down 3.79%. The total social inventory of PVC is 45.06 tons, down 0.33 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 40.52 tons, down 0.01 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 4.54 tons, down 0.32 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Housing Climate Index is 93.8, up 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 66140,000 square meters, down 67,278,840 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 605,972,000 square meters, down 127,275,360 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 611.071 billion yuan, down 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.5%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 13.64%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC is 20.3%, both down 4.32% [3]. Industry News - On April 16, the spot - cash warehouse - pickup price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of Yihua, Jintai, Zhongyan, and Ordos are between 4820 - 4870 yuan/ton, and the prices of Zhongtai and Tianye are between 4880 - 4920 yuan/ton. From April 5th to April 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%. As of April 10th, the new (41 - company) sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% month - on - month to 753,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.55%. The main PVC contract has switched to the 09 contract. V2509 fluctuated weakly and closed at 5054 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The 104% tariff imposed by the US on China will inhibit the export of domestic PVC products and raw materials. The supply pressure is expected to ease due to the concentrated maintenance of domestic PVC plants in April. The downstream product enterprises' operating load is expected to continue to increase seasonally, but the growth rate is expected to slow down marginally. The calcium carbide price in Inner Mongolia may remain stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,861 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 957,470 lots, up 20,551 lots; the open interest was 658,920 lots, down 44,546 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 733,650 lots, up 3,930 lots; the short position was 819,193 lots, down 28,581 lots; the net long position was -85,543 lots, up 32,511 lots [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of ethylene-based PVC in East China was 5,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,832.31 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. In South China, the ethylene-based PVC was 5,080 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,933.75 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe was 805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -107 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,933.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,747 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 541 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 226 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 221 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.02%, up 0.21 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.4%, up 0.51 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, down 0.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 45.39 tons, down 1.52 tons; in East China, it was 40.53 tons, down 1.35 tons; in South China, it was 4.86 tons, down 0.17 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.8, up 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 6,6140,000 square meters, down 67,278.840,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,059,720,000 square meters, down 127,275.360,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 611.071 billion yuan, down 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 16.23%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.12%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 24.71%, down 0.88 percentage points [3]. Industry News - On April 9, the 104% tariff imposed by the US on China took effect. On April 9, the cash - remittance price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou warehouses dropped by 50 - 60 yuan/ton. From March 29 to April 4, the PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.02%, up 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. As of April 3, the PVC social inventory decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 777,800 tons, and decreased by 11.65% year - on - year [3].

预计环比上升；4月检修计划多集中在下旬，短期内供应压力依然偏高。下游制品企业开工负荷预计持续季 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 节性提升。成本方面，内蒙古地区电石供需有所增长，价格或持稳运行；乙烯货源较充裕，价格仍有下滑 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-04-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5072 | -27 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 615867 | 69572 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 830996 | -19750 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 769608 | 16020 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 898245 | 29952 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -128637 | ...