Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the V2509 contract will fluctuate at a low level. The supply pressure is expected to increase due to the reduced marginal maintenance losses in May and the possible commissioning of Wanhua's 500,000 - ton facility. The export of Chinese PVC raw materials may be affected by factors such as the BIS certification and anti - dumping tax uncertainties in the Indian market, and the US tariff restrictions on Vietnamese PVC floor exports. [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2509) is 4,854 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; the trading volume is 542,507 lots, down 43,957 lots; the open interest is 969,200 lots, up 74,454 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 88,094 lots, down 25,878 lots. [3] 现货市场 - In the East China market, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,781.54 yuan/ton, down 24.62 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,848.75 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis is - 154 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan. [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China it is 2,823.33 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan, and in Northwest China it is 2,618 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 534 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia it is 551 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 196 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia it is 181 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars. [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.33%, up 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79%, up 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 80.19%, up 1.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 40.36 tons, down 1.7 tons; the inventory in East China is 36.18 tons, down 1.94 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.18 tons, up 0.24 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7,733.44 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan. [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.53%, up 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.71%, up 0.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.18%, up 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, up 0.13 percentage points. [3] Industry News - On May 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday, ranging from 4,630 to 4,780 yuan/ton. - From April 26 to May 2, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.33%, up 0.70% from the previous period. - As of April 24, the social inventory of PVC (41 samples from Longzhong) decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons. [3] Viewpoint Summary - The pipe production operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 48.34%, and the profile production operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points to 34.15%. The pre - holiday PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the maintenance loss of PVC will decrease marginally, and Wanhua's 500,000 - ton facility may be put into production, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. The Indian market is still affected by the uncertainties of BIS certification and anti - dumping tax; the export of Vietnamese PVC floors is restricted by US tariffs, which may affect China's PVC raw material exports. There is no sign of relief in the US tariff policy during the May Day holiday. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - V2509 fluctuates weakly, closing at 4,949 yuan/ton. The supply - side PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 1.29% week - on - week to 78.63% last week. The demand - side downstream PVC start - up rate increased by 0.07% week - on - week to 48.16%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.62% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate stable at 39.9%. As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% to 68.77 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend. The spring inspection intensity of PVC in April was less than in previous years. This week, affected by the restart of Bohua and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. PVC floor enterprises are affected by tariffs and stop production for observation, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate situation. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to an expected inventory build - up for PVC. V2509 has support around 4,900 yuan/ton and resistance around 5,050 yuan/ton [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,949 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the trading volume is 628,494 lots, down 93,658 lots; the open interest is 925,138 lots, up 14,879 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 735,797 lots, down 11,471 lots; the short position is 800,257 lots, down 11,778 lots; the net long position is - 64,460 lots, up 307 lots [3] 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4,818.46 yuan/ton, up 9.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,070 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4,875 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 169 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2,806.67 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Northwest China is 2,588 yuan/ton (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The VCM CFR Far East mid - price is 529 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia mid - price is 546 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East mid - price is 201 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia mid - price is 211 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [3] 4. Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC is 78.63%, up 1.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 78.64%, down 0.71 percentage points; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.61%, up 6.52 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 42.06 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the total social inventory in East China is 38.12 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the total social inventory in South China is 3.94 million tons, down 0.68 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7,733.44 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3] 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.84%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.52%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.59%, up 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.58%, up 0.24 percentage points [3] 7. Industry News - On April 29, the cash - on - delivery price of Changzhou PVC SG5 in the warehouse decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4,720 to 4,860 yuan/ton. From April 19 to 25, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, up 1.29% week - on - week. As of April 24, the PVC social inventory (41 samples) decreased by 5.15% week - on - week to 68.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 28 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [4] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [4] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Closing price of PVC: 4989 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [3] - Trading volume of PVC: 722152 lots, up 102224 lots [3] - Open interest of PVC: 910259 lots, down 33564 lots [3] - Long positions of top 20 futures holders: 747268 lots, down 8122 lots [3] - Short positions of top 20 futures holders: 812035 lots, down 28438 lots [3] - Net long positions of top 20 futures holders: - 64767 lots, up 20316 lots [3] Spot Market - East China PVC (ethylene method): 5075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - East China PVC (calcium carbide method): 4809.23 yuan/ton, up 3.08 yuan [3] - South China PVC (ethylene method): 5070 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - South China PVC (calcium carbide method): 4865 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - China PVC CIF: 700 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Southeast Asia PVC CIF: 670 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Northwest Europe PVC FOB: 785 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - PVC basis: - 209 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - Calcium carbide (Central China): 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Calcium carbide (North China): 2806.67 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Calcium carbide (Northwest China): 2588 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Liquid chlorine (Inner Mongolia): 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - VCM CFR Far East: 529 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [3] - VCM CFR Southeast Asia: 546 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [3] - EDC CFR Far East: 201 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars [3] - EDC CFR Southeast Asia: 211 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - PVC capacity utilization rate: 78.63%, up 1.28% [3] - PVC (calcium carbide method) capacity utilization rate: 78.64%, down 0.71% [3] - PVC (ethylene method) capacity utilization rate: 78.61%, up 6.52% [3] - Total PVC social inventory: 42.06 tons, down 2.08 tons [3] - East China PVC social inventory: 38.12 tons, down 1.4 tons [3] - South China PVC social inventory: 3.94 tons, down 0.68 tons [3] Downstream Situation - National real - estate climate index: 93.96, up 0.16 [3] - Cumulative new housing construction area: 12996.46 square meters, up 6382.46 square meters [3] - Cumulative real - estate construction area: 613705.44 square meters, up 7733.44 square meters [3] - Cumulative real - estate development investment: 11002.02 billion yuan, up 4891.31 billion yuan [3] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of PVC: 15.81%, up 0.3% [3] - 40 - day historical volatility of PVC: 14.63%, up 0.12% [3] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put option of PVC: 21.34%, up 1.76% [3] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option of PVC: 21.34%, up 1.75% [3] Group 3: Industry News - On April 28, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4750 - 4860 yuan/ton [3] - From April 19 to 25, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [3] - As of April 24, the PVC social inventory (41 samples) decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 68.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3] Group 4: Core View - V2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 4989 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 1.29% month - on - month to 78.63%. On the demand side, last week, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.07% month - on - month to 48.16%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.62% month - on - month to 49.06%, and the profile operating rate remained stable at 39.9%. As of April 24, PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 68.77 tons, maintaining a destocking trend. The spring inspection intensity of PVC in April was less than in previous years. This week, affected by the restart of Bohua and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue the upward trend. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are waiting and seeing due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate situation. During the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production, leading to an expected inventory build - up of PVC [3] - In terms of cost, this week, the calcium carbide supply in some areas has recovered, but power - rationing factors still exist; the downstream of ethylene US dollar goods is actively inquiring, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The support level of V2509 is around 4900, and the resistance level is around 5060 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC industry's supply side has seen some devices undergoing maintenance, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization rate. The demand side shows mixed trends, with PVC pipe production starting rate increasing slightly and profile production starting rate decreasing. PVC social inventory continues to decline. In April, domestic PVC devices are scheduled for centralized maintenance, and capacity utilization is expected to drop further. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream PVC flooring product enterprises have mostly shut down, while pipe and profile enterprises are less affected. Cost - wise, the price of calcium carbide is expected to decline slightly, and the price of ethylene has room to fall. For the V2509 contract, pay attention to the support around 5000 below and the resistance around 5160 above [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5054 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; trading volume is 368,542 lots, down 145,044 lots; open interest is 706,686 lots, up 258,548 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 759,979 lots, up 274 lots; the short position is 821,940 lots, up 789 lots; the net long position is - 61,961 lots, down 515 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5090 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4866.92 yuan/ton, down 23.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5120 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4953.75 yuan/ton, up 13.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton, both with no change. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 805 US dollars/ton with no change. The basis of PVC is - 111 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2950 yuan/ton with no change, in North China is 2865 yuan/ton with no change, and in Northwest China is 2617 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 541 US dollars/ton, both with no change. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 226 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 221 US dollars/ton, both with no change [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly starting rate of PVC is 76.67%, down 3.35%; the starting rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.22%, down 3.18%; the starting rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.98%, down 3.79%. The total social inventory of PVC is 45.06 tons, down 0.33 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 40.52 tons, down 0.01 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 4.54 tons, down 0.32 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Housing Climate Index is 93.8, up 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 66140,000 square meters, down 67,278,840 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 605,972,000 square meters, down 127,275,360 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 611.071 billion yuan, down 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.5%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 13.64%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC is 20.3%, both down 4.32% [3]. Industry News - On April 16, the spot - cash warehouse - pickup price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of Yihua, Jintai, Zhongyan, and Ordos are between 4820 - 4870 yuan/ton, and the prices of Zhongtai and Tianye are between 4880 - 4920 yuan/ton. From April 5th to April 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%. As of April 10th, the new (41 - company) sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% month - on - month to 753,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.55%. The main PVC contract has switched to the 09 contract. V2509 fluctuated weakly and closed at 5054 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The 104% tariff imposed by the US on China will inhibit the export of domestic PVC products and raw materials. The supply pressure is expected to ease due to the concentrated maintenance of domestic PVC plants in April. The downstream product enterprises' operating load is expected to continue to increase seasonally, but the growth rate is expected to slow down marginally. The calcium carbide price in Inner Mongolia may remain stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,861 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 957,470 lots, up 20,551 lots; the open interest was 658,920 lots, down 44,546 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 733,650 lots, up 3,930 lots; the short position was 819,193 lots, down 28,581 lots; the net long position was -85,543 lots, up 32,511 lots [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of ethylene-based PVC in East China was 5,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,832.31 yuan/ton, down 1.15 yuan. In South China, the ethylene-based PVC was 5,080 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,933.75 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe was 805 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -107 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,933.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,747 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 541 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 226 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 221 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.02%, up 0.21 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.4%, up 0.51 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, down 0.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 45.39 tons, down 1.52 tons; in East China, it was 40.53 tons, down 1.35 tons; in South China, it was 4.86 tons, down 0.17 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.8, up 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 6,6140,000 square meters, down 67,278.840,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,059,720,000 square meters, down 127,275.360,000 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 611.071 billion yuan, down 496.9943 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 16.23%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.12%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 24.71%, down 0.88 percentage points [3]. Industry News - On April 9, the 104% tariff imposed by the US on China took effect. On April 9, the cash - remittance price of PVC SG5 in Changzhou warehouses dropped by 50 - 60 yuan/ton. From March 29 to April 4, the PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.02%, up 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. As of April 3, the PVC social inventory decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 777,800 tons, and decreased by 11.65% year - on - year [3].

预计环比上升；4月检修计划多集中在下旬，短期内供应压力依然偏高。下游制品企业开工负荷预计持续季 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 节性提升。成本方面，内蒙古地区电石供需有所增长，价格或持稳运行；乙烯货源较充裕，价格仍有下滑 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-04-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5072 | -27 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 615867 | 69572 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 830996 | -19750 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 769608 | 16020 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 898245 | 29952 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -128637 | ...