| | | 产，中长期增大行业供应压力。国内制品订单不足，下游企业逢低采买为主。终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 累国内需求。印度PVC反倾销调查终裁大幅提升中国PVC反倾销税，政策预计最快将于9月落地。基本面偏 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 空使得盘面整体承压，而价格处于历史偏低水平又意味着下行空间受到限制。短期V2601运行区间预计在48 PVC产业日报 2025-09-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4894 | -13 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 767794 | -38602 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1199736 | 4503 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 920712 | 58 ...

PVC产业日报 2025-08-06 | | | 有限，价格预计维稳。目前盘面小幅升水。受焦煤盘面上涨利好，近期V2509有所反弹。但由于供需基本面 免责声明 改善有限，V2509反弹空间预计受限。技术上，日度K线关注5120附近压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5051 | 9 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 876411 | -21950 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 674125 | -37521 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 78 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-06-30 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 吨，库存趋势由降转升，库存压力不大。目前国内PVC行业处于检修密集阶段。下周停车装置影响扩大，产 权不得卸货，后期乙烷供应或将逐步放松。目前PVC供需双弱，成本端对价格起主导作用。短期V2509预计 偏弱震荡，日度K线关注4830附近支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4889 | -30 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 792725 | -2657 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4793 | -72 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 839870 | 175748 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1018526 | 51238 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 769730 | 28481 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 827310 | 48943 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -57580 | -20462 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5025 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4766.54 | -5 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5000 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4816.25 | 0 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 710 | 10 PVC:东南亚:到岸 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 65.10 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of suspended PVC production capacities will gradually increase, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The reduction of the US tariff rate on China is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by the uncertainty of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties and the rainy season; the US tariffs on Vietnam have not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene have remained stable recently. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4890 and resistance around 5060 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4986 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the trading volume was 1,532,605 lots, up 584,462 lots; the open interest was 988,857 lots, down 93,652 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 763,073 lots, down 9,277 lots; the short position was 808,218 lots, down 46,678 lots; the net long position was -45,145 lots, up 37,401 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4704.23 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4785.62 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -306 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.34% last week, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.43%, up 4.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.84%, up 1.99 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.7%, up 1.98 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.7%, up 1.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. - According to Longzhong Information, on May 13, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4720 yuan/ton. V2509 rose 3.02% to close at 4986 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC capacity utilization rate last week increased by 1.01% week - on - week to 80.34%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC last week increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9%. From May 3rd to 9th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, up 1.01% from the previous period. As of May 8th, the PVC social inventory of the new (41 - company) sample decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 65.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71% [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4837 | 1 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 948143 | -197842 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1082509 | 18197 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 772350 | 6550 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 854896 | -14286 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -82546 | 20836 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5000 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4683.08 | -13.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4940 | -40 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4754.38 | -13.12 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 700 | 0 PV ...

供应压力预计上升。印度市场仍受BIS认证、反倾销税不确定性扰动；越南PVC地板出口受美国关税限制， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 或影响中国PVC原料出口。五一假期美国关税政策尚无缓解迹象。PVC基本面偏弱，盘面价格处于偏低水平 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 ，预计V2509低位震荡。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-05-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-04-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4949 | -40 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 628494 | -93658 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 925138 | 14879 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 735797 | -11471 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 800257 | -11778 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -64460 | 307 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5075 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4818.46 | 9.23 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5070 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4875 | 10 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4989 | 28 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 722152 | 102224 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 910259 | -33564 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 747268 | -8122 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 812035 | -28438 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -64767 | 20316 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5075 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4809.23 | 3.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5070 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4865 | 0 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 700 | 0 PVC:东南亚:到岸价(日 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-04-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5054 | 123 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 368542 | -145044 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 706686 | 258548 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 759979 | 274 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 821940 | 789 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -61961 | -515 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5090 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4866.92 | -23.46 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5120 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4953.75 | 13.75 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日 ...