Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is facing significant supply - demand contradictions. With high开工 rates, high inventories, and low demand, the valuation repair lacks an opportunity. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a daily range around 4500 - 4610 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4581 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 499,375 hands, a decrease of 103,394 hands. The open interest is 1,397,880 hands, a decrease of 9,251 hands [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,020,736 hands, a decrease of 1,671 hands; the short position is 1,257,192 hands, an increase of 1,657 hands; the net long position is - 236,456 hands, a decrease of 3,328 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,546.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,692.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,602.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.62 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2,508 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.75%, an increase of 2.49 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 81.21%, an increase of 3.78 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.69%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 545,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The inventory in East China is 497,500 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the inventory in South China is 48,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.49%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.22%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.89%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.9%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 1st to 7th, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.49% week - on - week to 80.75%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 49.6%, with the pipe operating rate decreasing by 2.6% to 39.4% and the profile operating rate decreasing by 0.22% to 37.61% [3]. - As of November 6th, the PVC social inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,158 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5,264 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 769 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 465 yuan/ton [3]. 3.8 Outlook - The 400,000 - ton Henan Lianchuang device will be shut down for maintenance, and the 360,000 - ton Qilu Petrochemical device will restart. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decrease slightly week - on - week. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali device maintenance, and PVC will generally maintain a high operating state [3]. - As the temperature drops, the terminal demand in infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream operating rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated November 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC futures contract V2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 4,630 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased, and the operating rates of downstream pipes and profiles rose slightly. Inventory change was small, and the high - inventory accumulation trend slowed down. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits recovered. The high - operating state of PVC may continue. The operating rate of downstream PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4,570 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The trading volume was 736,089 lots, a decrease of 32,196 lots. The open interest was 1,315,311 lots, an increase of 33,017 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 198,008 lots, a decrease of 23,628 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged at 4,780 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,644.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,673.33 yuan/ton, and 2,508 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly average prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remained unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 54.46 tons, a decrease of 1.01 tons. The inventory in the East China region was 49.53 tons, a decrease of 0.99 tons, and the inventory in the South China region was 4.93 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.36%, a decrease of 1.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 10.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC was 14.22%, an increase of 0.53% [3] Group 4: Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83%. As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton. The calcium carbide method profit decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method profit increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC futures market is expected to fluctuate in the low - valuation range, with technical support around 4640 and resistance around 4820 [3]. - With the arrival of winter, terminal demand for infrastructure and real estate weakens, and there is a seasonal decline expectation for the downstream PVC operating rate. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. Domestic supply - demand contradictions are significant, making PVC de - stocking difficult, and high inventory pressure may persist [3]. - The high - operating state of PVC may continue as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance. The restart of some plants is expected to keep the capacity utilization rate rising [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; trading volume was 649,206 lots, a decrease of 117,205 lots; open interest was 1,243,783 lots, an increase of 7,046 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 155,901 lots, a decrease of 1,460 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4606.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4691.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.38 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.9%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.26%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 14.57%, an increase of 0.54 and 0.53 percentage points respectively [3]. Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a 1.69% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83% [3]. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons compared with the previous period, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5288 yuan/ton [3]. Profit Situation - The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-10-13 [2] - Researchers: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently facing multiple challenges. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support near the low point of 4690 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply pressure of PVC remains at a relatively high level, and the demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real estate market. The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, and the cost - end support is limited [3] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the trading volume is 641,958 lots, down 46,657 lots; the open interest is 1,235,033 lots, up 17,477 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 906,556 lots, up 9,186 lots; the short position is 1,059,609 lots, up 12,492 lots; the net long position is - 153,053 lots, down 3,306 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4,644.23 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4,885 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4,699.38 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [3] Upstream Market - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, down 11.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 524 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 549 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points; the operating rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 82.94%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of PVC ethylene method is 81.9%, up 2.15 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 557,000 tons, up 19,300 tons; the inventory in the East China region is 502,700 tons, up 14,300 tons; the inventory in the South China region is 54,300 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] Downstream Market - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, up 45.95 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, up 4.37794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 11.32%, down 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.15%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 14.41%, down 0.74 percentage points [3] Group 5: Industry News Summary - From October 4th to 10th, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 7.6% to 32.83%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 23.04% to 15.87%. As of October 9th, the PVC social inventory was 1.0363 million tons, up 5.58% from the previous week. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of PVC calcium carbide method decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene method decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide method increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook is bearish, putting overall pressure on the market, but the price is at a historically low level, limiting the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 [3]. - This week, the restart of devices such as Zhongtai and Taishu Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization rate. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand [3]. - India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC will significantly increase the anti - dumping duty on Chinese PVC, and the policy is expected to be implemented as early as September [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4894 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume is 767,794 lots, down 38,602 lots; the open interest is 1,199,736 lots, up 4,503 lots [3]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 920,712 lots, up 5,834 lots; the sell order volume is 1,034,431 lots, down 2,973 lots; the net buy order volume is - 113,719 lots, up 8,807 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5040 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 4905 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4721.92 yuan/ton (down 8.08 yuan) and 4801.88 yuan/ton (down 22.5 yuan) respectively [3]. - The CIF prices of PVC in China, Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Northwest Europe are 710 dollars/ton, 670 dollars/ton, and 690 dollars/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2573.33 yuan/ton (down 16.67 yuan), and 2373 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The middle - prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 503 dollars/ton (down 18 dollars) and 539 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars) respectively; the middle - prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars) and 201 dollars/ton (up 12 dollars) respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly overall PVC operating rate is 76.02%, down 1.59%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, and the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is down 6.64% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 772,500 tons, up 4,400 tons; the social inventory of ethylene - based PVC is 521,900 tons, up 13,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in East China is 463,600 tons, up 13,400 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 58,300 tons, up 500 tons [3]. - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26; the cumulative new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.2%, down 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.08%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 14.53%, down 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, down 0.39% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 1, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 23 to 29, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [3]. - As of August 28, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.10% month - on - month to 896,300 tons. Last week, PVC production decreased by 2.05% to 455,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 42.6%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 33.61%, and the profile operating rate increased by 4.95% to 42.6% [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-08-06 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Assistant Analyst: Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - V2509 rose 1.18% to close at 5051 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased 0.05% to 76.84% week-on-week. The downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The new capacity will gradually increase the supply in August. The restart of devices this week will likely increase the capacity utilization rate. The domestic downstream demand is weak, and the rainy season hinders overseas demand. The cost of calcium carbide has price support, and the ethylene price is expected to remain stable. The V2509 rebound is limited due to the limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 5120 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Closing price of PVC futures: 5051 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; trading volume: 876,411 lots, down 21,950 lots; open interest: 674,125 lots, down 37,521 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 17,781 lots to - 10,891 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4901.15 yuan/ton, up 26.15 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5035 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4918.12 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2598.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2378 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.84%, up 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 76.03%, down 3.22 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 78.99%, up 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, up 21,000 tons. The inventory in East China was 394,800 tons, up 16,600 tons; in South China, it was 53,200 tons, up 4400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, up 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 2447.55 billion yuan, up 532.069 billion yuan [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.69%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.83%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 17.26%, up 0.32 and 0.33 percentage points respectively [3]. 7. Industry News - On August 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 4900 - 4980 yuan/ton. From July 26 to August 1, the PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, up 0.05% week - on - week. As of July 31, the PVC social inventory increased 5.67% to 722,100 tons week - on - week and decreased 24.10% year - on - year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the cost side playing a dominant role in prices. In the short - term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 4830 on the daily K - line [3][4]. - The current domestic PVC industry is in a period of intensive maintenance. Next week, the impact of shutdown devices will expand, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4889 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the trading volume is 792,725 lots, down 265,709 lots; the open interest is 926,073 lots, down 7,777 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 18,970 lots, down 30,768 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4965 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4817.31 yuan/ton, up 55.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4965 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4893.75 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central China region is 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north China region, it is 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwest region, it is 2508 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.09%, down 0.53 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80.97%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 70.46%, down 3.35 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 36.17 tons, up 0.66 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23,183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,250,195,400 square meters, up 4704.49 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 191.5481 billion yuan, up 42.8168 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 13.28%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.83%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.74%, up 2.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.74%, up 2.22 percentage points [3]. Industry News - On June 30, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou remained stable compared to last Friday, ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 21 to 27, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. As of June 26, the social inventory of PVC increased by 1.03% month - on - month to 575,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.06% [3].

Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated May 27, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Co., Ltd. [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with support around 4750 yuan/ton. The supply side shows a decrease in PVC capacity utilization rate last week, while the demand side has a slight increase in downstream开工率. The inventory is in a destocking trend with limited pressure. However, factors such as the strengthening of caustic soda spot, potential passive increase in PVC supply due to liquid chlorine backlog, digestion of previous macro - positive factors, approaching traditional consumption off - season, and uncertainties in export markets and cost fluctuations will affect the market. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4793 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan; the trading volume is 839,870 lots, up 175,748 lots; the open interest is 1,018,526 lots, up 51,238 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 57,580 lots, down 20,462 lots. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China drops by 5 yuan/ton. The Chinese CIF price of PVC rises by 10 dollars/ton to 710 dollars/ton, and other international prices remain stable. The basis of PVC is - 119 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central, North, and Northwest China all decline, with decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia change, with a decrease of 14 dollars/ton in the Far East and an increase of 9 dollars/ton in Southeast Asia. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.19%, down 1.51%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC drops by 2.88% to 74.81%, while the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC rises by 2.05% to 79.78%. The total social inventory of PVC is 37.75 tons, down 1.96 tons, with a decrease in East China and an increase in South China. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.86, down 0.1. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment all increase. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC increase, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options decrease. [3] 3.7 Industry News - On May 27, the ex - warehouse spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 drops by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. From May 17 to 23, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 76.19%, down 1.51% month - on - month and up 0.67% year - on - year. As of May 22, the social inventory of PVC decreases by 2.84% month - on - month to 62.33 tons, down 29.49% year - on - year. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 65.10 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of suspended PVC production capacities will gradually increase, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The reduction of the US tariff rate on China is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by the uncertainty of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties and the rainy season; the US tariffs on Vietnam have not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene have remained stable recently. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4890 and resistance around 5060 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4986 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the trading volume was 1,532,605 lots, up 584,462 lots; the open interest was 988,857 lots, down 93,652 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 763,073 lots, down 9,277 lots; the short position was 808,218 lots, down 46,678 lots; the net long position was -45,145 lots, up 37,401 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4704.23 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4785.62 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -306 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.34% last week, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.43%, up 4.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.84%, up 1.99 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.7%, up 1.98 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.7%, up 1.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. - According to Longzhong Information, on May 13, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4720 yuan/ton. V2509 rose 3.02% to close at 4986 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC capacity utilization rate last week increased by 1.01% week - on - week to 80.34%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC last week increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9%. From May 3rd to 9th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, up 1.01% from the previous period. As of May 8th, the PVC social inventory of the new (41 - company) sample decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 65.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71% [3].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC social inventory maintained a destocking trend with a week-on-week decrease of 0.41% to 651,000 tons, indicating low inventory pressure. The number of PVC parking capacities will gradually increase in May, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, stating that the reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days, which is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by BIS certification, anti-dumping tax uncertainty and the rainy season; the US tariff on Vietnam has not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price is expected to decline, but the uncertainty of power rationing still affects the future price; the ethylene US dollar market is in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4,770 and resistance around 4,900 [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,837 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the trading volume was 948,143 lots, down 197,842 lots; the open interest was 1,082,509 lots, up 18,197 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 772,350 lots, up 6,550 lots; the short positions were 854,896 lots, down 14,286 lots; the net long positions were -82,546 lots, up 20,836 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,683.08 yuan/ton, down 13.08 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4,940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4,754.38 yuan/ton, down 13.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the inventory in East China was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the inventory in South China was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.05%, down 1.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.85%, down 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.72%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.75%, down 1.1 percentage points [3] Industry News - On May 12, the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The reciprocal tariff rates between the two countries will be reduced to 10% within 90 days. Considering the previous 20% tariff imposed by the US on fentanyl, the final tariff rate imposed by the US on China is 30%. On May 13, the cash - on - delivery price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,620 to 4,720 yuan/ton. V2509 opened higher and closed lower at 4,837 yuan/ton. From May 3 to 9, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.34%, up 1.01 percentage points week - on - week. As of May 8, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory (41 companies) decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 651,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71%. From May 12 to 18, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13% and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9% [3]