| | | PVC产业日报 2025-11-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4630 | -8 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 736089 | -32196 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1315311 | 33017 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 973883 | 46058 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1171891 | 69686 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -198008 | -23628 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4780 | -10 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4585 | -18.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4780 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4644.38 | -34.38 | | | PVC:中国 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-11-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4670 | -10 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 649206 | -117205 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1243783 | 7046 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 914940 | -1146 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1070841 | 314 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -155901 | -1460 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4790 | -25 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4606.54 | -33.46 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4810 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4691.25 | -14.38 | | | PVC:中 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-10-13 免责声明 弱震荡，日度K线关注4690附近低点支撑。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 持续放量，中长期看PVC供应压力仍处于偏高水平。节后下游企业陆续复产，但需求增长空间受国内地产市 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 场弱势抑制。受印度反倾销税影响，出口市场或保持观望为主。库存预计维持高位累库趋势。当前电石法 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 工艺深度亏损，氯碱企业"以碱补氯"；但电石供应宽松、价格偏弱，成本端支撑有限。短期V2601预计偏 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook is bearish, putting overall pressure on the market, but the price is at a historically low level, limiting the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 [3]. - This week, the restart of devices such as Zhongtai and Taishu Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization rate. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand [3]. - India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC will significantly increase the anti - dumping duty on Chinese PVC, and the policy is expected to be implemented as early as September [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4894 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume is 767,794 lots, down 38,602 lots; the open interest is 1,199,736 lots, up 4,503 lots [3]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 920,712 lots, up 5,834 lots; the sell order volume is 1,034,431 lots, down 2,973 lots; the net buy order volume is - 113,719 lots, up 8,807 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5040 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 4905 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4721.92 yuan/ton (down 8.08 yuan) and 4801.88 yuan/ton (down 22.5 yuan) respectively [3]. - The CIF prices of PVC in China, Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Northwest Europe are 710 dollars/ton, 670 dollars/ton, and 690 dollars/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2573.33 yuan/ton (down 16.67 yuan), and 2373 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The middle - prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 503 dollars/ton (down 18 dollars) and 539 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars) respectively; the middle - prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars) and 201 dollars/ton (up 12 dollars) respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly overall PVC operating rate is 76.02%, down 1.59%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, and the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is down 6.64% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 772,500 tons, up 4,400 tons; the social inventory of ethylene - based PVC is 521,900 tons, up 13,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in East China is 463,600 tons, up 13,400 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 58,300 tons, up 500 tons [3]. - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26; the cumulative new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.2%, down 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.08%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 14.53%, down 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, down 0.39% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 1, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 23 to 29, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [3]. - As of August 28, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.10% month - on - month to 896,300 tons. Last week, PVC production decreased by 2.05% to 455,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 42.6%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 33.61%, and the profile operating rate increased by 4.95% to 42.6% [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-08-06 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Assistant Analyst: Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - V2509 rose 1.18% to close at 5051 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased 0.05% to 76.84% week-on-week. The downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The new capacity will gradually increase the supply in August. The restart of devices this week will likely increase the capacity utilization rate. The domestic downstream demand is weak, and the rainy season hinders overseas demand. The cost of calcium carbide has price support, and the ethylene price is expected to remain stable. The V2509 rebound is limited due to the limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals. Technically, the daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 5120 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Closing price of PVC futures: 5051 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; trading volume: 876,411 lots, down 21,950 lots; open interest: 674,125 lots, down 37,521 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders increased by 17,781 lots to - 10,891 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4901.15 yuan/ton, up 26.15 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 5035 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 4918.12 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2598.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2378 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.84%, up 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 76.03%, down 3.22 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 78.99%, up 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, up 21,000 tons. The inventory in East China was 394,800 tons, up 16,600 tons; in South China, it was 53,200 tons, up 4400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, up 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 2447.55 billion yuan, up 532.069 billion yuan [3]. 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.69%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.83%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 17.26%, up 0.32 and 0.33 percentage points respectively [3]. 7. Industry News - On August 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 4900 - 4980 yuan/ton. From July 26 to August 1, the PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, up 0.05% week - on - week. As of July 31, the PVC social inventory increased 5.67% to 722,100 tons week - on - week and decreased 24.10% year - on - year [3].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-06-30 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 吨，库存趋势由降转升，库存压力不大。目前国内PVC行业处于检修密集阶段。下周停车装置影响扩大，产 权不得卸货，后期乙烷供应或将逐步放松。目前PVC供需双弱，成本端对价格起主导作用。短期V2509预计 偏弱震荡，日度K线关注4830附近支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4889 | -30 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 792725 | -2657 ...

Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated May 27, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Co., Ltd. [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with support around 4750 yuan/ton. The supply side shows a decrease in PVC capacity utilization rate last week, while the demand side has a slight increase in downstream开工率. The inventory is in a destocking trend with limited pressure. However, factors such as the strengthening of caustic soda spot, potential passive increase in PVC supply due to liquid chlorine backlog, digestion of previous macro - positive factors, approaching traditional consumption off - season, and uncertainties in export markets and cost fluctuations will affect the market. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4793 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan; the trading volume is 839,870 lots, up 175,748 lots; the open interest is 1,018,526 lots, up 51,238 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 57,580 lots, down 20,462 lots. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China drops by 5 yuan/ton. The Chinese CIF price of PVC rises by 10 dollars/ton to 710 dollars/ton, and other international prices remain stable. The basis of PVC is - 119 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central, North, and Northwest China all decline, with decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia change, with a decrease of 14 dollars/ton in the Far East and an increase of 9 dollars/ton in Southeast Asia. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.19%, down 1.51%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC drops by 2.88% to 74.81%, while the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC rises by 2.05% to 79.78%. The total social inventory of PVC is 37.75 tons, down 1.96 tons, with a decrease in East China and an increase in South China. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.86, down 0.1. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment all increase. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC increase, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options decrease. [3] 3.7 Industry News - On May 27, the ex - warehouse spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 drops by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. From May 17 to 23, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 76.19%, down 1.51% month - on - month and up 0.67% year - on - year. As of May 22, the social inventory of PVC decreases by 2.84% month - on - month to 62.33 tons, down 29.49% year - on - year. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.41% week-on-week to 65.10 million tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the number of suspended PVC production capacities will gradually increase, which may relieve the future supply pressure. After the holiday, the downstream product enterprises resumed work, but the order performance was poor. The reduction of the US tariff rate on China is beneficial to the export of domestic PVC flooring. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by the uncertainty of BIS certification and anti-dumping duties and the rainy season; the US tariffs on Vietnam have not been alleviated, which may affect the export of Chinese PVC raw materials. In terms of cost, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene have remained stable recently. In the short term, V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 4890 and resistance around 5060 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4986 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan; the trading volume was 1,532,605 lots, up 584,462 lots; the open interest was 988,857 lots, down 93,652 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 763,073 lots, down 9,277 lots; the short position was 808,218 lots, down 46,678 lots; the net long position was -45,145 lots, up 37,401 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4704.23 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene-based PVC was 4940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide-based PVC was 4785.62 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was -306 yuan/ton, down 149 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2823.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 538 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 567 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 162 US dollars/ton, down 34 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 164 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 80.34% last week, up 1.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.33%, up 2.33 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.75%, down 2.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 409,800 tons, up 6,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 367,400 tons, up 5,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 42,400 tons, up 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 77.3344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.43%, up 4.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.84%, up 1.99 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.7%, up 1.98 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.7%, up 1.95 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rate stipulated in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 of the Tariff Commission of the State Council was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff rate on the United States was suspended for 90 days; the tariff measures stipulated in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped. - According to Longzhong Information, on May 13, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in the Changzhou market remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4720 yuan/ton. V2509 rose 3.02% to close at 4986 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC capacity utilization rate last week increased by 1.01% week - on - week to 80.34%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC last week increased by 2.01% week - on - week to 45.99%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 48.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.5% to 35.9%. From May 3rd to 9th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.34%, up 1.01% from the previous period. As of May 8th, the PVC social inventory of the new (41 - company) sample decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 65.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.71% [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4837 | 1 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 948143 | -197842 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1082509 | 18197 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 772350 | 6550 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 854896 | -14286 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -82546 | 20836 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5000 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4683.08 | -13.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4940 | -40 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4754.38 | -13.12 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) | 700 | 0 PV ...

供应压力预计上升。印度市场仍受BIS认证、反倾销税不确定性扰动；越南PVC地板出口受美国关税限制， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 或影响中国PVC原料出口。五一假期美国关税政策尚无缓解迹象。PVC基本面偏弱，盘面价格处于偏低水平 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 ，预计V2509低位震荡。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-05-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘 ...