1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic calcium carbide method device load is increased to compensate for the loss of ethylene method device production, and the supply side changes little. The downstream is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and the operating rate is expected to recover to a relatively high level throughout the year. Many overseas devices in countries such as South Korea are shut down due to raw material supply problems, which is beneficial for PVC exports. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical news, and technically, pay attention to the support around 5540 and the resistance around 6045 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan; the trading volume is 2,005,916 lots, a decrease of 425,714 lots; the open interest is 855,380 lots, a decrease of 46,740 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures is 1,029,916 lots, a decrease of 45,358 lots; the short position is 1,044,625 lots, a decrease of 40,512 lots; the net long position is -14,709 lots, a decrease of 4,846 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 6,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,737.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.52 yuan. In South China, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,856.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 910 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,643 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 787 US dollars/ton, an increase of 245 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 788 US dollars/ton, an increase of 210 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 300 US dollars/ton, an increase of 55 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 299 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 81.35%, an increase of 0.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 82.93%, an increase of 2.28%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.6%, a decrease of 4.61%. The total social inventory of PVC is 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons. The total social inventory in East China is 58.08 million tons, unchanged; in South China, it is 5.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598.9029 million square meters, an increase of 38.2409 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, an increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 37.97%, a decrease of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.22%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 58.76%, a decrease of 5.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 58.75%, a decrease of 5.75% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 81.35%, an increase of 0.24% compared with the previous period. From March 7th to 13th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 3.49% to 39.33% compared with the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 38%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 30%. As of March 12th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.4072 million tons, an increase of 0.24% compared with the previous week. From March 6th to 12th, the national average cost of calcium carbide method increased by 8.02% to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene method increased by 20.22% to 6,452 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide method increased by 159 yuan/ton to 267 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method increased by 48 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the domestic PVC maintenance capacity increases, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly from a high level. After the Lantern Festival, downstream enterprises fully resume work, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually rise to the annual high. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated, but the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and the high - level inventory is difficult to reduce. The cost support of the calcium carbide method is weak, and the cost of the ethylene method has a strengthening trend but the impact is relatively limited. The upward space of V2605 in the short term is expected to be limited, and attention should be paid to the support around 4760 and the pressure around 4980 technically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4939 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 71; the trading volume is 2274341 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 279227; the open interest is 1149647 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 58135. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1117193 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 36795; the short position is 1218510 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 68824; the net long position is - 101317 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 32029 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4654.81 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24.44. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4768.75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16.88. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 700 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 730 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 268 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 86 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2700 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.67; in Northwest China, it is 2378 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, with no change. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 492 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 528 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 220 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 224 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 82.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01%; the operating rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 81.88%, with no change; the operating rate of PVC ethylene method is 82.54%, with no change. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.56 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06; the total social inventory in the East China region is 56.2 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the total social inventory in the South China region is 5.36 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 5313.26; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 3824.09; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2871.41 [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.84; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.64%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.84 [3] 3.7 Industry News - From February 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.08%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. From February 21st to 27th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 17.11% week - on - week to 17.11%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 13.6% week - on - week to 13.6%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 11.3% week - on - week to 11.3%. As of February 26th, the PVC social inventory was 135.30 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%. From February 20th to 26th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide method decreased to 4991 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method increased to 4984 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 439 yuan/ton, and the loss was alleviated; the profit of the ethylene method was 11 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to high开工 rates, high inventories, weak demand, and limited cost - side support. The V2605 daily K - line should focus on the support around 4860 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4911 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the trading volume is 1160706 lots, down 162779 lots; the open interest is 1060308 lots, down 34793 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1027821 lots, down 47257 lots; the short positions are 1126948 lots, down 37426 lots; the net long positions are - 99127 lots, down 9831 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4875 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4732.69 yuan/ton, up 76.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4930 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4758.12 yuan/ton, up 93.75 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2715 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2543 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 402 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 433 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, down 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80%, up 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, down 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 tons, up 1.49 tons; the inventory in East China is 52.74 tons, up 1.12 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.91 tons, up 0.37 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 20.15%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.86%, up 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 21.73%, up 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.73%, up 1.27 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average national cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased, and the profit decreased to - 800 yuan/ton; the average national cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased, and the profit increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The domestic supply - demand imbalance of PVC is difficult to improve. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily range estimated to be around 4650 - 4820 yuan/ton. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the demand side is weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates from April will have a negative impact on the far - end price, and foreign buyers' resistance to high prices weakens price support. The upstream calcium carbide supply - demand tight balance may strengthen the cost support of the calcium carbide method [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan; the trading volume is 1324283 lots, a decrease of 37449 lots; the open interest is 1071654 lots, an increase of 34533 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1092451 lots, an increase of 40442 lots; the short positions are 1167227 lots, an increase of 24205 lots; the net long positions are - 74776 lots, an increase of 16237 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4790 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4578.08 yuan/ton with no change. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4835 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4605 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 660 US dollars/ton with no change, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 630 US dollars/ton with no change. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton with no change. The basis of PVC is - 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton with no change, in North China is 2698.33 yuan/ton with no change, and in Northwest China is 2561 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 402 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 428 US dollars/ton with no change. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton with no change, and in Southeast Asia is 194 US dollars/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.63%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.98%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.79%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 56.16 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 51.62 tons, an increase of 1.43 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 4.54 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.9, a decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 53456.7 million square meters, an increase of 4395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 656066.2 million square meters, an increase of 3127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 42024.57 billion yuan, an increase of 3041.6 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.31%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.49%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.95%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.95%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04% to 79.63%. From January 10th to 16th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.11% to 43.91%, among which the operating rate of pipes remained stable at 35.4%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.31% to 29.91%. As of January 16th, the PVC social inventory was 114.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.70%. From January 10th to 16th, the average cost of the calcium carbide method nationwide increased to 5094 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method nationwide decreased to 5003 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 663 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 138 yuan/ton. The 400,000 - ton plant of Qinzhou Huayi restarted, while the 200,000 - ton plant of Yibin Tianyuan and the 500,000 - ton plant of Wanhua Fujian were shut down for maintenance [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - V2605 oscillated weakly and closed at 4,878 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month due to the influence of plant operations. The downstream pipe and profile开工率 changed slightly, and the PVC product开工率 increased slightly. Social inventory accumulated month - on - month and was much higher than the same - period level. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method changed differently, and the profit was repaired due to the strong spot. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to change little this week. The influence of chlor - alkali plant maintenance in January is seasonally weak, and the开工率 remains at a relatively high level overall. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the开工率 of hard products such as pipes and profiles before the Spring Festival decreases seasonally, with weak demand on the demand side. Regarding exports, the export tax - refund cancellation policy starting from April is negative for far - end prices, and the actual impact of short - term "rush to export" needs to be observed. In the short term, V2605 is expected to oscillate, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4,800 and the pressure around 5,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the trading volume was 1,193,959 lots, a decrease of 421,571 lots; the open interest was 1,028,094 lots, a decrease of 6,529 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 1,063,166 lots, and the short position was 1,150,455 lots, a decrease of 296 lots. The net long position was - 87,289 lots, an increase of 309 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,765 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,686.92 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,658.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 610 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 218 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,665 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,491 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far - East intermediate price of VCM was 397 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 428 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far - East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 546,300 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 501,800 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 44,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.560662 billion square meters, an increase of 31.2717 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, an increase of 30.416 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 23.07%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.78%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.78%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03%. From January 3rd to 9th, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.08 percentage points month - on - month to 44.02%, among which the pipe开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 35.4%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.44 percentage points month - on - month to 30.22%. As of January 8th, the PVC social inventory was 1.1141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is facing significant supply - demand contradictions. With high开工 rates, high inventories, and low demand, the valuation repair lacks an opportunity. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a daily range around 4500 - 4610 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4581 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 499,375 hands, a decrease of 103,394 hands. The open interest is 1,397,880 hands, a decrease of 9,251 hands [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,020,736 hands, a decrease of 1,671 hands; the short position is 1,257,192 hands, an increase of 1,657 hands; the net long position is - 236,456 hands, a decrease of 3,328 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,546.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,692.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,602.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.62 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2,508 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.75%, an increase of 2.49 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 81.21%, an increase of 3.78 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 79.69%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 545,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The inventory in East China is 497,500 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the inventory in South China is 48,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.49%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.22%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.89%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.9%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 1st to 7th, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.49% week - on - week to 80.75%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 49.6%, with the pipe operating rate decreasing by 2.6% to 39.4% and the profile operating rate decreasing by 0.22% to 37.61% [3]. - As of November 6th, the PVC social inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.13%. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,158 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5,264 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 769 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 465 yuan/ton [3]. 3.8 Outlook - The 400,000 - ton Henan Lianchuang device will be shut down for maintenance, and the 360,000 - ton Qilu Petrochemical device will restart. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decrease slightly week - on - week. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali device maintenance, and PVC will generally maintain a high operating state [3]. - As the temperature drops, the terminal demand in infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream operating rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated November 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC futures contract V2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 4,630 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased, and the operating rates of downstream pipes and profiles rose slightly. Inventory change was small, and the high - inventory accumulation trend slowed down. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits recovered. The high - operating state of PVC may continue. The operating rate of downstream PVC is expected to decline seasonally. Overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4,570 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The trading volume was 736,089 lots, a decrease of 32,196 lots. The open interest was 1,315,311 lots, an increase of 33,017 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 198,008 lots, a decrease of 23,628 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged at 4,780 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,644.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,673.33 yuan/ton, and 2,508 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly average prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remained unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 54.46 tons, a decrease of 1.01 tons. The inventory in the East China region was 49.53 tons, a decrease of 0.99 tons, and the inventory in the South China region was 4.93 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.36%, a decrease of 1.09%. The 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 10.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC was 14.22%, an increase of 0.53% [3] Group 4: Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83%. As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton. The calcium carbide method profit decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method profit increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC futures market is expected to fluctuate in the low - valuation range, with technical support around 4640 and resistance around 4820 [3]. - With the arrival of winter, terminal demand for infrastructure and real estate weakens, and there is a seasonal decline expectation for the downstream PVC operating rate. The anti - dumping tax in India has no specific implementation time, and overseas demand remains uncertain. Domestic supply - demand contradictions are significant, making PVC de - stocking difficult, and high inventory pressure may persist [3]. - The high - operating state of PVC may continue as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance. The restart of some plants is expected to keep the capacity utilization rate rising [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; trading volume was 649,206 lots, a decrease of 117,205 lots; open interest was 1,243,783 lots, an increase of 7,046 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 155,901 lots, a decrease of 1,460 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4606.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4691.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.38 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 518 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.9%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.26%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC was 14.57%, an increase of 0.54 and 0.53 percentage points respectively [3]. Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.26%, a 1.69% increase from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 0.8% to 42% and the profile operating rate increasing by 1.96% to 37.83% [3]. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons compared with the previous period, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5201 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5288 yuan/ton [3]. Profit Situation - The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-10-13 [2] - Researchers: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently facing multiple challenges. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support near the low point of 4690 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply pressure of PVC remains at a relatively high level, and the demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real estate market. The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, and the cost - end support is limited [3] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the trading volume is 641,958 lots, down 46,657 lots; the open interest is 1,235,033 lots, up 17,477 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 906,556 lots, up 9,186 lots; the short position is 1,059,609 lots, up 12,492 lots; the net long position is - 153,053 lots, down 3,306 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4,644.23 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4,885 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4,699.38 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [3] Upstream Market - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, down 11.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 524 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 549 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points; the operating rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 82.94%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of PVC ethylene method is 81.9%, up 2.15 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 557,000 tons, up 19,300 tons; the inventory in the East China region is 502,700 tons, up 14,300 tons; the inventory in the South China region is 54,300 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] Downstream Market - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, up 45.95 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, up 4.37794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 11.32%, down 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.15%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 14.41%, down 0.74 percentage points [3] Group 5: Industry News Summary - From October 4th to 10th, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 7.6% to 32.83%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 23.04% to 15.87%. As of October 9th, the PVC social inventory was 1.0363 million tons, up 5.58% from the previous week. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of PVC calcium carbide method decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene method decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide method increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook is bearish, putting overall pressure on the market, but the price is at a historically low level, limiting the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 [3]. - This week, the restart of devices such as Zhongtai and Taishu Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization rate. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand [3]. - India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC will significantly increase the anti - dumping duty on Chinese PVC, and the policy is expected to be implemented as early as September [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4894 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume is 767,794 lots, down 38,602 lots; the open interest is 1,199,736 lots, up 4,503 lots [3]. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 920,712 lots, up 5,834 lots; the sell order volume is 1,034,431 lots, down 2,973 lots; the net buy order volume is - 113,719 lots, up 8,807 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 5040 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 4905 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and South China are 4721.92 yuan/ton (down 8.08 yuan) and 4801.88 yuan/ton (down 22.5 yuan) respectively [3]. - The CIF prices of PVC in China, Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Northwest Europe are 710 dollars/ton, 670 dollars/ton, and 690 dollars/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2573.33 yuan/ton (down 16.67 yuan), and 2373 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The middle - prices of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 503 dollars/ton (down 18 dollars) and 539 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars) respectively; the middle - prices of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars) and 201 dollars/ton (up 12 dollars) respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly overall PVC operating rate is 76.02%, down 1.59%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, and the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is down 6.64% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 772,500 tons, up 4,400 tons; the social inventory of ethylene - based PVC is 521,900 tons, up 13,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in East China is 463,600 tons, up 13,400 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 58,300 tons, up 500 tons [3]. - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26; the cumulative new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.2%, down 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.08%, unchanged [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 14.53%, down 0.41%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, down 0.39% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 1, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 23 to 29, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59% [3]. - As of August 28, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.10% month - on - month to 896,300 tons. Last week, PVC production decreased by 2.05% to 455,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 42.6%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 33.61%, and the profile operating rate increased by 4.95% to 42.6% [3].