衍生品研究 新券定价——唯品会奥莱 REIT 宁波奥特莱斯登录资本市场 2025 年 8 月 22 日 衍生品研究/事件点评 发行 10.0 亿份，战配、网下、公众分别占比 70%、21%、9%，2025/8/13 网下询价，2025/8/20 缴款，预期 9 月下旬登录资本市场。网下有效认购倍数 254.19 倍，由此推算中签率 0.39%。 初始IRR 7.75%，今明两年可供分配金额预测分别 1.51亿元和 1.64亿元， 预测年化派息率分别 6.94%和 5.65%。发行价 3.48 元，上限发行，发行 P/NAV 1.20 倍，对应 23.05 倍 P/FFO，今明两年调整后预期年化派息率 5.79%、4.71%。 新券二级市场估值推导 目前已上市产权类消费基础设施 REITs 共 9 只，过去三个月平均 P/NAV 中位数 1.41 倍，P/FFO 中位数 25.02 倍，派息率 TTM 中位数 3.69%。 我们认为，最可比的是华夏首创奥特莱斯 REIT(508005.SH)，过去三个 月平均 P/NAV、P/FFO 和派息率 TTM 分别 1.58 倍、25.43 倍和 2.95%。 考虑到唯 ...

Financial analyst by day and a seasoned investor by passion, I've been involved in the world of investing for over 15 years and honed my skills in analyzing lucrative opportunities within the market.I specialize in uncovering high quality dividend stocks and other assets that offer potential for long term-growth that pack a serious punch for bill-paying potential. I use myself as an example that with a solid base of classic dividend growth stocks, sprinkling in some Business Development Companies, REITs, an ...

Senior living REITs such as Venas and Welltowwer seeing big gains over the last year. Shares of Welltowwer, for example, up more than 40%. You can see that in this week's property play, Diane Olic sat down with the Venus CEO talking about the big opportunities that she is seeing in that space and she joins me now.Diana, well David, more than 4 million baby boomers will hit 80 in the next 5 years and occupancy at senior living communities is hitting new highs. As you said, I sat down with the CEO of Ventas, ...

国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年，民间项目投资（扣除房地产开发民间投资）同比增长5.1％， 实现稳定增长。日前召开的中央政治局会议提出，"激发民间投资活力，扩大有效投资"。这意味着下半 年投资工作要进一步聚焦效益精准发力，通过拓展有效投资空间，推动我国民间投资持续回暖和结构优 化。 政策利好提振信心 民间投资是稳增长、调结构、促就业的重要支撑力量。民间投资的活跃程度，很大程度上能反映出 一个经济体的内生动力。 受房地产开发投资下滑影响，上半年我国民间投资增速同比下降0.6％，但一些投资亮点依然可圈 可点，诸如新能源汽车、人工智能以及计算机通信、通用设备、专用设备制造业等，都是民间投资较快 增长的领域。 分行业看，上半年民间投资分化较为明显。其中，住宿和餐饮业民间投资增长20.3％，基础设施民 间投资增长9.5％，文化、体育和娱乐业民间投资增长8.4％，制造业民间投资增长6.7％。 "民间投资增速的波动，与我国经济转型和结构调整的进程紧密相关。"国家信息中心经济预测部政 策仿真实验室副主任张晓兰表示，今年以来，随着整治"内卷式"竞争的推进，一些低端产能正加快从市 场出清，越来越多的民间资本把目标锚定在高成长赛道， ...

As market indexes continue to hover near all-time highs, it's becoming more difficult to locate attractive opportunities within the equities market. In scenarios like this, income funds are a much easier bet to make because theyFinancial analyst by day and a seasoned investor by passion, I've been involved in the world of investing for over 15 years and honed my skills in analyzing lucrative opportunities within the market.I specialize in uncovering high quality dividend stocks and other assets that offer p ...

Core Viewpoint - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that private project investment (excluding real estate development) grew by 5.1% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting stable growth. The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to "stimulate the vitality of private investment and expand effective investment," suggesting a focus on enhancing investment efficiency in the second half of the year [1] Investment Environment - Private investment is a crucial support for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting employment. The level of private investment activity reflects the internal dynamics of an economy. Despite a 0.6% year-on-year decline in private investment growth due to a drop in real estate development investment, sectors like new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and various manufacturing industries showed significant growth [2] - In the first half of the year, private investment growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in accommodation and catering (20.3%), infrastructure (9.5%), culture, sports, and entertainment (8.4%), and manufacturing (6.7%) [2] Policy Support - The policy environment for private investment has been improving throughout the year. The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law on May 20 marked a significant step in supporting the high-quality development of the private economy, boosting confidence among private enterprises. The Supreme People's Court has also issued guidelines to ensure judicial support for the private economy [3] - A series of policies across fiscal, financial, and industrial sectors have been introduced to facilitate the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law, including a new negative list for market access and the promotion of over 3 trillion yuan worth of new projects to private capital [3] Investment Opportunities - Under the "Two New" and "Two Heavy" policies, private investment is increasingly directed towards new and green projects. Recent approvals for nuclear power projects have increased the participation of private enterprises, with total investments exceeding 200 billion yuan [4] - Local governments are actively listing private investment projects, with Jiangsu province alone having 228 major projects funded by private enterprises, totaling an investment of 150 billion yuan [4] Future Directions - The National Development and Reform Commission is working to enhance mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major national projects, particularly in sectors like nuclear power and railways [5] - The launch of the first public real estate investment trusts (REITs) for data centers indicates a removal of financing barriers for private enterprises in large infrastructure projects, which is expected to broaden investment opportunities in various sectors [6] - The government plans to continue stimulating private investment through legal guarantees, investment incentives, and improved policy environments, focusing on both "hard investments" and "soft construction" to maximize investment potential [7] Recommendations - Experts suggest guiding more private capital into major infrastructure and social welfare projects to stabilize market expectations and enhance the role of private investment in driving domestic demand and economic growth [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2]. Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 1.49% this week, with operational rights down 1.45% and property rights down 2.01%. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.37% and the CSI 500 Index increased by 3.88% [5][17]. - The report highlights significant events, including the announcement of the issuance of fund shares for the CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT, which was oversubscribed by 253.26 times, and the completion of a targeted expansion for the Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the strong allocation attributes of REITs in the long term, suggesting investors pay attention to sector rotation and expansion opportunities while being mindful of macroeconomic and policy environments [5][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total number of listed companies in the REITs sector is 73, with a total market capitalization of 217.78 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 102.88 billion yuan [2]. - The trading volume for the week was 3.27 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.9% compared to the previous week, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.6% [10]. Key Events - The CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT announced a fund share issuance at a price of 3.480 yuan per share, with a total effective subscription amounting to 53,184,400 thousand shares [10]. - The Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT completed a targeted expansion, issuing 388,788,630 shares at a price of 4.433 yuan per share [12]. Market Performance - The report notes that 7 REITs increased in value, while 66 declined, resulting in an overall drop of 1.49% for the REITs sector [21]. - The correlation of REITs with the 10-year government bonds, 1-year government bonds, and convertible bonds is reported as 0.08, -0.12, and 0.69, respectively, indicating a differentiated performance compared to the stock market [17][21].

Group 1 - The article promotes a research service focused on various income-generating investment vehicles such as REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs, highlighting its extensive research capabilities and positive user testimonials [1] - It mentions that there are 438 testimonials, with most being rated 5 stars, indicating high customer satisfaction and trust in the service [1] Group 2 - The article includes a disclosure from the analyst stating a beneficial long position in several companies, which may influence the analysis presented [2] - It clarifies that the opinions expressed are those of the author and not influenced by compensation from any mentioned companies, ensuring transparency in the analysis [2] Group 3 - The article contains a disclaimer from Seeking Alpha, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results and that no specific investment advice is being provided [3] - It notes that the views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, indicating a diversity of opinions among its analysts [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a hybrid investment strategy that combines classic dividend growth stocks with Business Development Companies, REITs, and Closed End Funds to enhance investment income while achieving total returns comparable to traditional index funds [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on high-quality dividend stocks and assets that provide long-term growth potential, which can significantly contribute to income generation [1]. - The strategy aims to create a balanced portfolio that captures total returns on par with the S&P 500, indicating a robust performance relative to market benchmarks [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall year-on-year revenue growth rate of public REITs declined marginally by 3 pct to -3%. The financial completion rate remained at a high level. Except for the water supply limitation of Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water, resulting in a 68% revenue completion rate for the water conservancy facilities sector, the revenue completion rates of the remaining sectors were above 93%. Due to the non-arrival of subsidies, the distributable amount completion rate of the energy sector was only 48%, while the completion rates of the remaining sectors were all above 94% [2]. - Consumption and affordable housing are still high-performing sectors with high revenue growth. Consumption revenue increased by 4% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 102%/114% (revenue/distributable amount, excluding new bonds, the same below), continuing to lead. The month-on-month changes of individual bonds were divergent. Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱 and Huaan Bailian were weaker than other individual bonds. The market seemed to accept the seasonal attribution of Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱's manager, and it rose slightly by 1.48% after the release of the second-quarter report (from July 18th to July 29th, the same throughout the text). Huaan Bailian, on the other hand, fell by 8.88%. Affordable housing revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 100%/98%, and the occupancy rate remained relatively stable [2]. - The performance of warehousing and logistics was better than expected. Although it continued to "exchange price for volume", most assets were able to achieve a stable or increasing occupancy rate, and the sector's revenue stabilized marginally. The year-on-year revenue decreased by 4%, with a month-on-month growth rate increase of 2 pct, and the completion rate was 97%/98%. The main operating pressure on the sector came from the entry of competitors rather than trade frictions. The coastal warehousing and logistics operations of Hongtu Yantian Port and Huaxia Shenzhen International Hangzhou Project were not weak [3]. - The energy sector had a high revenue completion rate, but the quarterly fluctuations in distributable amounts dragged down the market performance. The year-on-year revenue increased by 1%, with a completion rate of 99%/48%. The delayed payment of national subsidies for wind and solar projects led to cash flow shortages, and the distributable completion rate of some projects was below 53%. If the subsidies are concentrated in the second half of the year, the completion rate is expected to improve [3]. - The sectors with weak performance were mainly industrial parks and transportation. The revenue of industrial parks decreased by 14% year-on-year, and the decline marginally widened by 4 pct. The completion rates were 93%/96%, both relatively low among all sectors. Many industrial parks mentioned the pressure from the entry of competitors, and the occupancy rates generally decreased month-on-month. However, factory projects showed operational resilience, and the occupancy rates of some factories increased against the trend. After the release of the second-quarter report, the market repriced the operational resilience of Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park [3]. - The revenue of the transportation sector decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 2 pct marginally. Only a few individual bonds showed operational improvements [3]. - Since late June, risk appetite has recovered, and stable, high-dividend assets have weakened. As of July 29th, the CSI REITs Total Return Index has corrected by 3% from its peak. In late June, the CSI REITs Total Return Index reached a phased high in February 2023, and its relative cost-effectiveness compared to stocks and bonds was relatively low. Driven by the recovery of risk appetite and the increase in REITs supply, REITs prices have declined. Valuation compression was the main theme of trading during the quarterly report period. Sectors and individual bonds with high year-to-date gains tended to fall, and price changes did not fully match performance. However, individual bonds with outstanding performance were also priced [4]. - REITs may enter a volatile range, and stable sectors are still preferred. On the one hand, REITs valuations are not low, and the improvement in risk appetite may continue. June may be a phased high. On the other hand, on July 25th, the cash distribution rate of property rights REITs was 3.86%, and the overall market IRR was 4.05%. There was still a spread of 232 BP between the IRR and the 10-year Treasury bond, supporting investor demand. Observe whether the REITs index can stabilize at the previous low price level (such as the level at the end of April). Currently, it is judged that the volatile range of the CSI Dividend Total Return is between 1052 - 1125 (1052 is the low in April, and 1125 is the high in June). If risk appetite changes drastically, it may break through the volatile range, while a slowdown in REITs supply will help stabilize the bottom of the range. When selecting bonds, first, the valuation advantages of sectors with relatively stable cycles are not extreme (the IRR spread is at the median), and stable sectors have performance support. It is expected that stable sectors such as consumption and affordable housing will still perform better. Second, the arrival of national subsidies is theoretically a short-term impact, and there may be investment opportunities after the adjustment of new energy individual bonds is in place. Third, factory-type individual bonds in industrial parks are still worthy of attention [5]. Summary by Directory REITs Overall - The overall revenue growth rate of REITs was -3% year-on-year, a 3 pct decline compared to Q1 2025. The revenue of property rights REITs decreased by 4% year-on-year. Consumption and affordable housing had positive year-on-year growth, warehousing and logistics and affordable housing stabilized marginally, while industrial parks continued to decline. The year-on-year revenue growth rates of industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, affordable housing, and consumption were -14%, -4%, +6%, and +4% respectively, with marginal changes of -4 pct, +2 pct, +6 pct, and -53 pct compared to Q1 2025. The revenue of franchise rights REITs decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the energy sector performed relatively well. The year-on-year revenue growth rates of transportation, energy, and environmental protection were -2%, +1%, and -6% respectively, with marginal changes of -2 pct, +19 pct, and -2 pct compared to Q1 2025 [17]. - After excluding the impact of new bonds, the overall market operating revenue completion rate was 96%. The revenue completion rates of the municipal, consumption, and affordable housing sectors met the standards. The distributable amount completion rate of the energy sector was relatively low due to the existence of an account period for new energy subsidies, resulting in quarterly fluctuations in the distributable amount. The completion rates of the remaining sectors were all above 94% [18][23]. Market Reaction - Since late June, risk appetite has recovered, and stable, high-dividend assets have weakened. The CSI REITs Total Return Index reached its peak on June 20th and had corrected by 3% by July 29th. Valuation compression was the main theme of trading during the quarterly report period, causing the rise and fall of REITs to not fully match performance. The month-on-month increase of individual bonds after the release of the quarterly report was generally negatively correlated with the year-to-date increase. The affordable housing sector with a high year-on-year revenue growth rate fell by 2.86%, not significantly better than other sectors, which was related to its high valuation and year-to-date increase. The industrial park sector with the most obvious marginal weakening of performance did not decline significantly, possibly because its valuation was not high, and the cash distribution rate on July 18th was at the 53% percentile in history. Some individual bonds with low valuations did not decline significantly even if their performance remained weak, such as CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley and Jianxin Zhongguancun. Some individual bonds with performance that exceeded expectations, such as Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway, and Huaxia JINMAO Commercial, continued to rise on the basis of their significant increases this year. Several energy REITs with low distributable amounts and Guangfa Chengdu Gaotou with a large decline in occupancy rate fell significantly. Consumption had a high year-to-date increase and was still one of the three best-performing sectors after the quarterly report, indicating strong market recognition of this sector [27]. Sector Analysis - **Industrial Parks**: The revenue of industrial parks decreased by 14% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 4 pct compared to the previous quarter. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 93% and 96% respectively. The occupancy rates generally decreased month-on-month, while rents varied. Factory-type projects showed performance resilience. New supply led to intensified competition. Some individual bonds faced significant performance pressure. At the individual bond level, Jianxin Zhongguancun Industrial Park, Huaxia Hefei High-tech, Huaxia Hangzhou HeDa High-tech, CICC Hubei KeTou, and others were worthy of attention [31][32]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: The revenue of warehousing and logistics decreased by 4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 2 pct compared to the previous quarter. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 97% and 98% respectively. It adopted a strategy of "exchanging price for volume", and the occupancy rates of most assets were stable or increasing. The main operating pressure came from the entry of surrounding competitors. At the individual bond level, Hongtu Yantian Port, CICC Puluosi, Huaxia Shenzhen International Warehouse Logistics, and others were worthy of attention [36]. - **Affordable Housing**: The revenue of the affordable housing sector increased by 6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 6 pct compared to the previous quarter. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 100% and 98% respectively. The occupancy rates of the underlying assets fluctuated slightly, with most fluctuations within 2 pct [45]. - **Consumption**: The revenue of the consumption sector increased by 4% year-on-year. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 102% and 114% respectively. The month-on-month revenue was divergent. Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱 and Huaan Bailian's month-on-month revenue were at least 10 pct lower than other individual bonds. At the individual bond level, Huaxia Vanke Commercial, Huaxia Capital and CIFI Group's CM奥莱, and Yifangda Huawai Agricultural Trade were worthy of attention [46]. - **Transportation**: The revenue of the transportation sector decreased by 2% year-on-year, and the decline widened by 2 pct compared to Q1 2025. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable amount completion rate were 95% and 97% respectively. Some individual bonds, such as Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe, CICC Anhui Expressway, and Huatai Jiangsu Expressway, performed well. At the individual bond level, Huaxia China Communications Construction, CICC Anhui Expressway, Zhongjin Shandong High-Speed, and others were worthy of attention [51]. - **Energy**: The revenue of the energy sector increased by 1% year-on-year, a 19 pct increase compared to Q1 2025, reflecting the large quarterly fluctuations in the revenue of the energy sector. The revenue and distributable amount completion rates were 99% and 48% respectively. The accounts receivable of new energy REITs such as photovoltaic and wind power were relatively high, resulting in a significantly lower distributable amount completion rate than the revenue completion rate. It is expected that the distributable amount completion rate will gradually increase in the second half of the year. At the individual bond level, Penghua Shenzhen Energy, CITIC Construction Investment National Power Investment New Energy, and others were worthy of attention [55]. - **Utilities**: Except for Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water, the revenue completion rates were at a relatively high level of 95% - 110%. At the individual bond level, AVIC Shougang Biology and Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water were worthy of attention [63].