在此背景下，IDC正式发布最新报告。数据显示，2024年中国SASE产品服务市场规模约为11.4亿元，同 比增长37.8%，市场实现高速增长。其中，深信服（300454）科技、火山引擎、华为、南凌科技和中国 电信（601728）在激烈的市场竞争中占据了主导地位。 最新机构调研中，南凌科技表示，2025年公司秉承以国内市场为基础、国际市场为补充的发展战略布 局，致力于在全球范围内构建卓越的SASE服务网络。公司将不断优化和拓展海外基础设施与服务能 力，以满足业务在不同国家和地区落地开展的需求。南凌科技将充分利用公司的品牌优势和自主产品优 势，与国外合作伙伴紧密合作，逐步拓展海外市场覆盖面。为中国企业"走出去"和海外企业"走进来"提 供全方位的"云智网安"解决方案，促进国际经济合作与交流。 近日，IDC发布《IDCMarketShare：中国安全访问服务边缘市场份额，2024：云网安融合加速，SASE 市场规模同比实现37.8%的高速增长》，南凌科技（300921）占据了主导地位，位居中国市场第四位。 国际数据公司(IDC)最新发布的2025年全球未来企业连接十大预测提出，到2026年，全球60%的企业将 通过部 ...

Core Insights - Fortinet (FTNT) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) are significant players in the network security market, with Fortinet focusing solely on security and Cisco integrating security with broader networking solutions [1][2] Market Overview - The network security market is projected to grow from $24.95 billion in 2025 to $42.93 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 11.47% during the forecast period [2] Fortinet's Performance - Fortinet has shown strong momentum in network security, maintaining its position as the leading firewall vendor globally and achieving double-digit growth in FortiGate hardware revenues [3][4] - The unified Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) platform has been a key growth driver, with 18% year-over-year growth in SASE billings and a 73% penetration rate in large enterprise SD-WAN [4][6] - The launch of the FortiGate 700G series has enhanced Fortinet's competitive edge, delivering 5x to 10x performance over competitors [5] - Fortinet's sovereign SASE solution is gaining traction in regulated sectors, ensuring compliance while maintaining performance [6] Cisco's Performance - Cisco's network security business reported strong results, with security orders rising in the high double digits year over year, driven by product innovation and customer demand [7] - The company added over 370 new customers, benefiting from partnerships that enhance its AI-ready secure infrastructure [8] - Despite strong performance, Cisco faces challenges with historical growth comparisons and uncertainties related to tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [9] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, FTNT shares have returned 10.2%, outperforming CSCO's 7.7% gain and the sector's decline of 1.5% [10] - FTNT's forward 12-month P/S ratio is 11.16X, significantly higher than CSCO's 4.38X, reflecting investor confidence in FTNT's growth potential [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FTNT's 2025 earnings is $2.47 per share, indicating a 4.22% year-over-year increase, while CSCO's estimate is $3.73 per share, showing no change year over year [16][17] Investment Outlook - Fortinet presents a stronger investment opportunity with consistent double-digit revenue growth and expanding SASE adoption [19] - Cisco, while promising, faces delayed revenue realization and macro uncertainties, making its near-term outlook less compelling compared to Fortinet [20]

Core Insights - Fortinet's share prices increased by 74% over the past year, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq Composite index's 17% gain [1] - Despite exceeding revenue and earnings expectations in Q1 2025, Fortinet's stock price fell due to lukewarm guidance [2] Financial Performance - Fortinet's Q1 revenue grew by 14% year over year, while adjusted earnings surged by 35% [4] - The company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) for unified SASE grew by 19% year over year, compared to 12% growth in overall RPO [6][7] - Fortinet's total RPO reached $6.5 billion, with SecOps and unified SASE accounting for nearly one-third of this total [9] Market Opportunities - The SecOps market is projected to nearly double over the next decade, potentially generating $84 billion in annual revenue by 2034 [8] - Fortinet anticipates $1.62 billion in revenue for the current quarter, reflecting a 13% increase from the previous year [10] - Analysts expect Fortinet's earnings to grow at a faster pace in 2027, with raised earnings guidance for 2025 and 2026 [11] Valuation Concerns - Fortinet's stock trades at 42 times earnings, which is considered expensive compared to the Nasdaq-100 index's earnings multiple of 29 [13] - The company's valuation requires a stronger growth profile to justify current levels, leading some investors to seek better entry points [14]

周五美股盘前交易中，Cloudflare(NET.US)股价一度大涨约11%，该公司亮眼的一季报业绩及前瞻指引 获得分析师普遍看好。 分析师补充道，尽管估值高于高增长SaaS企业，但Cloudflare是少数能实现增速回升且基本面持续改善 的公司。 Jefferies维持Cloudflare"持有"评级，但将该股的目标价从170美元下调至150美元。 美国银行证券维持"买入"评级，目标价为160美元。 以Brent Thill为首的分析师表示，Cloudflare营收超预期幅度达2.3%(创五个季度新高)，同时维持2025年 营收指引。尽管尚未出现宏观逆风，但该公司对营收指引保持审慎。 以Madeline Brooks为首的分析师表示，Cloudflare一季度营收达4.79亿美元，较指引高出1000万美元，超 出市场预期300个基点，表现强劲。 该行分析师补充道，一份为期五年、价值1.3亿美元的合约印证了其在AI时代的基础架构价值和战略地 位。一季度运营利润率仅符合预期，在营收超预期背景下略显遗憾，但大额订单印证了市场潜力。 该行分析师补充道，安全访问服务边缘(SASE)和Workers产品的大额订单成为主 ...

Core Insights - Fortinet Inc. reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, with both earnings and revenues exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year improvement [1][2]. Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS for Q1 2025 was 58 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.43%, and up 34.9% from 43 cents in the same quarter last year [1]. - Total revenues reached $1.54 billion, surpassing the consensus mark by 0.21% and reflecting a 13.8% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in services and product revenues [2]. - Product revenues increased by 12.3% year over year to $459.1 million, with notable growth in both hardware and software solutions [3]. - Service revenues grew 14.4% year over year to $1.08 billion, accounting for 70% of total revenues, with security subscriptions rising 16% [4]. Growth Metrics - Fortinet added over 6,300 new logos in Q1, supported by investments in channel partners [2]. - Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) grew 12% to $6.5 billion, while total billings rose 14% to $1.6 billion, driven by growth in AI-driven SecOps and Unified SASE [2]. - AI-driven Security Operations billings increased by 29%, representing 10% of Fortinet's business [5]. Margins and Efficiency - Total gross margin increased by 380 basis points to 81.9%, exceeding the high end of the guided range by 90 basis points [6]. - Operating margin reached a record 34.2%, up 570 basis points, reflecting strong gross margins and cost efficiencies [7]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Fortinet ended Q1 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $4.78 billion, an increase from $4 billion at the end of Q4 2024 [8]. - Cash flow from operations was $863.3 million, compared to $830.4 million in Q1 2024, while free cash flow rose to $782.8 million from $608.5 million [9]. Guidance - For Q2 2025, Fortinet estimates revenues between $1.59 billion and $1.65 billion, with billings expected between $1.685 billion and $1.765 billion [10]. - For the full year 2025, revenues are projected between $6.65 billion and $6.85 billion, with services revenues expected between $4.575 billion and $4.725 billion [11].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue growth of 14%, reaching $1,540,000,000, with product revenue increasing by 12% to $459,000,000 [14][15] - Total billings grew 14% to $1,600,000,000, driven by 18% growth in unified SaaS and 29% growth in AI-driven SecOps [14][15] - The operating margin reached a record 34%, exceeding the high end of guidance by 320 basis points [17][31] - Free cash flow was a record $783,000,000, representing a margin of 51% [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unified SaaS billing growth was 18%, accounting for 25% of total business, while secure operations and unified SaaS saw strong growth with security service edge billing growth over 110% [7][14] - Security subscriptions revenue increased by 16%, while support and related service revenues grew by 12% [15][16] - AI-driven security operations accounted for 10% of the business, with a 29% increase in revenue [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EMEA was the best-performing geography with mid-teens growth, particularly in financial services and government sectors, which grew over 20% [24][25][101] - The number of new logos increased by 14% to over 6,300, driven by investments in channel partners [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the number one player in the SASE market, leveraging its strong SASE strategy and unified operating system [19][20] - Continued investment in AI capabilities is expected to drive growth, with over 500 issued and pending AI patents [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its offerings in OT security and AI as key growth drivers over the next five years [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for cybersecurity solutions despite geopolitical uncertainties, with a growing pipeline and robust close rates [26][27] - The company is maintaining its full-year guidance to account for potential top-line risks associated with the evolving geopolitical environment [29][31] - The management noted that the firewall upgrade cycle is expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2025 [30] Other Important Information - The company announced a transition in CFO roles, with Keith Jensen stepping down and Christiana Ohlgart taking over [3][4] - The company has not seen significant impacts from U.S. tariffs in Q1 and does not expect meaningful impacts in Q2 [27][73] Q&A Session Summary Question: Dynamics behind maintenance and services revenue - Management explained that the slight decline was affected by Q4 having two more days than Q1, impacting daily revenue rates [38][39] Question: Guidance for the next quarter - Management indicated that while there is good momentum, they are being cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [46][47] Question: Customer hesitancy in purchasing - Management noted that while there is hesitancy, they have not seen delays yet, and positive feedback from channel activities is expected to resolve this [54][55] Question: Large transactions and their drivers - Management confirmed that large transactions are primarily driven by SD WAN deployments, with customers buying additional solutions [67] Question: Impact of tariffs on margins - Management stated that they do not expect significant impacts from tariffs in Q1 or Q2, as only a few products are subject to tariffs [73][75] Question: Changes in channel partner behavior ahead of tariffs - Management reported no specific acceleration of deals due to tariffs, although there were inquiries about potential price increases [77][79] Question: Upcoming refresh cycle assumptions - Management indicated that smaller customers are buying more, while larger customers' strategies vary based on consolidation or upgrading [119][120]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fortinet reported a revenue growth of 14% year-over-year, reaching $1,540,000,000 in Q1 2025, with product revenue increasing by 12% to $459,000,000 [12][14] - The operating margin reached a record 34%, reflecting strong gross margins and cost efficiencies [16][30] - Free cash flow was a record $783,000,000, with a margin of 51%, up six points from the previous year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unified SaaS billing grew by 18%, driven by a 110% increase in security service edge billing, accounting for 25% of the business [6][13] - AI-driven security operations revenue increased by 29%, representing 10% of total business [9][10] - Security subscriptions revenue grew by 16%, while support and related service revenues increased by 12% [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EMEA was the best-performing geography with mid-teens growth, particularly in financial services and government sectors, which grew over 20% [24][95] - The number of new logos increased by 14% to over 6,300, driven by investments in channel partners [13][14] - Large enterprise customers showed a growth of around 30%, with an increase in deals greater than $1,000,000 [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Fortinet aims to maintain its leadership in the firewall market and expand its presence in the SASE and OT security markets [6][10] - The company is focusing on integrating AI capabilities into its products, holding over 500 AI patents, and enhancing its SASE strategy [10][11] - Fortinet is also investing in Sovereign SASE solutions for large enterprises and service providers, ensuring compliance with local regulations [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued adoption of Fortinet solutions despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing strong customer demand [18][25] - The company is cautious in its guidance due to potential risks from geopolitical factors but remains optimistic about achieving growth targets [28][30] - The upcoming firewall upgrade cycle is expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2025 [29] Other Important Information - The company announced the FortiGate 700 series, a high-performance firewall aimed at mid-sized businesses, which is expected to enhance market share [11] - Infrastructure investments decreased to $67,000,000, reflecting a lower level of real estate investment [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Dynamics behind maintenance and services revenue - Management explained that the slight decline in service revenue was affected by fewer days in Q1 compared to Q4, impacting daily revenue rates [36][38] Question: Lightness in guidance for the next quarter - Management acknowledged some uncertainty in customer purchasing decisions due to geopolitical factors but noted strong close rates and sales momentum [44][45] Question: Conversations with customers regarding hesitancy to commit - Management indicated that while there is hesitancy due to macro news, they have not seen delays in deals yet [50][51] Question: Impact of tariffs on hardware sales - Management stated that tariffs are not expected to have a significant impact on operating margins, as only a few components are subject to tariff charges [68][70] Question: Large transactions and their representation of the Fortinet platform - Management confirmed that large transactions are primarily driven by SD WAN deployments, with customers expanding into the Fortinet security fabric [63][64] Question: Service revenue downtick and customer refresh dynamics - Management noted that the service revenue decline was partly due to customers refreshing appliances without adding new subscriptions [84][91]

Core Insights - Fortinet reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 34%, up 570 basis points year over year, and billings growth of 14% year over year [3][5][6]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached $1.54 billion, reflecting a 14% increase from $1.35 billion in Q1 2024 [5][6]. - Product revenue was $459 million, up 12% from $408.9 million in the same quarter last year [5][6]. - Service revenue amounted to $1.08 billion, a 14.4% increase compared to $944.4 million in Q1 2024 [6]. - Total billings were $1.60 billion, marking a 13.5% increase from $1.41 billion in Q1 2024 [6]. - Remaining performance obligations stood at $6.49 billion, up 11.7% year over year, with an expected revenue recognition of approximately $3.38 billion over the next 12 months [6]. Growth Areas - Unified SASE Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 26% to $1.15 billion, while Security Operations ARR grew by 30% to $434.5 million [5][6]. - The company continues to invest in Unified SASE and Security Operations markets, aiming to strengthen its leadership in Secure Networking [3]. Profitability Metrics - GAAP operating income was $453.8 million, with a GAAP operating margin of 29.5%, compared to 23.7% in Q1 2024 [6][29]. - Non-GAAP operating income reached $526.2 million, resulting in a non-GAAP operating margin of 34.2%, up from 28.5% in the previous year [6][32]. - GAAP net income was $433.4 million, with diluted net income per share of $0.56, compared to $299.3 million and $0.39 per share in Q1 2024 [6][29][32]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash flow from operations was a record $863 million, compared to $830.4 million in Q1 2024 [5][12]. - Free cash flow also set a record at $783 million, up from $608.5 million in the same quarter last year [12][35]. Guidance - For Q2 2025, Fortinet expects revenue between $1.590 billion and $1.650 billion, and billings between $1.685 billion and $1.765 billion [12]. - For the full fiscal year 2025, revenue is projected to be in the range of $6.650 billion to $6.850 billion [12].

Core Viewpoint - Fortinet's valuation is a concern for investors as it trades at a significant premium compared to the broader Zacks Security industry, with a Price/Book ratio of 53.65 versus the industry's 25.04, indicating high growth expectations from investors [1][2] Valuation Concerns - The current Price/Book ratio of Fortinet is 53.65, significantly higher than the industry average of 25.04, suggesting a stretched valuation [1] - The Value Score of F indicates that Fortinet's valuation is currently stretched [1] Competitive Landscape - Fortinet operates in a highly competitive cybersecurity market, facing strong competition from companies like Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, and CrowdStrike [5] - Competitors are rapidly innovating and making strategic acquisitions, which could impact Fortinet's market share and technological relevance if it fails to keep pace [6][7] Macroeconomic Pressures - Fortinet is experiencing pressures from macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tensions and economic instability in key markets such as Latin America, Mexico, and Canada [8] - The company faces potential disruptions in the U.S. federal market due to staffing issues, which could negatively affect sales [8] - Broader stock market weakness and high interest rates are also impacting Fortinet, making its elevated valuations more risky [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 earnings is 53 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 23.26%, with revenues expected to reach $1.54 billion, reflecting a 13.54% year-over-year growth [11] - Fortinet has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 24.76% [11] Stock Performance - Fortinet shares have gained 10.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index, which declined by 10.7% and 5.8%, respectively [13] - The company's outperformance is attributed to its strong position in the SASE solutions market, which is seeing accelerated adoption [14] Growth Drivers - Fortinet's growth is driven by its Unified SASE strategy integrated into the FortiOS operating system, providing seamless networking and security [16] - SASE Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has grown by 96%, and FortiSASE deals have increased by 60% in 2024, indicating strong customer interest and adoption [17] - A recent partnership with Vodafone Business aims to expand Fortinet's reach in European markets, enhancing its growth potential [18] Conclusion - Current valuations suggest that investors might benefit from waiting for a better entry point, as Fortinet's strengths are countered by challenges from increased competition and macroeconomic uncertainties [19][20]

Fortinet (FTNT) Q4 2024 Earnings Call February 06, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants Aaron Ovadia - Senior Director - IRKen Xie - Founder, Chairman & CEOKeith Jensen - CFOChristiane Ohlgart - Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting OfficerBrian Essex - Executive DirectorFatima Boolani - Managing Director, Co-Head US Software Equity ResearchJoseph Gallo - Senior Vice President Conference Call Participants Jonathan Eisenson - AnalystTal Liani - AnalystGabriela Borges - AnalystShaul Eyal - AnalystR ...