利率下调
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最新预测!澳联储或降息至2.6%,房价有望再次上涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 02:29
RealEstate网站5月9日报道,最新调查显示,澳洲民众对房地产市场的信心在连续 3个季度下跌后出现 大幅反弹。与此同时,澳洲最大银行之一预测利率将回归至疫 情时期水平。 周五发布的NABResidential Property Index指出,今年3月,该指数"大幅上涨至 远超平均水平的40点, 此前连续3个季度呈下降趋势"。 预计未来12个月内该指数将 达到51点,未来两年将达到54点。 澳洲国民银行(NAB)首席经济学家Sally Auld预计,利率下调将支撑经济增长, 澳洲经济将实现'软着 陆'。 今年下半年的通胀率将稳定在澳联储目标区间的中间水 平,失业率将保持在4.5%以下。 (图片来源:RealEstate) "也就是说,全球经济正面临逆风,全球增长放缓可能对澳洲经济增长产生负面影 响,同时也会起到抑 制通胀的作用。这意味着澳联储需要更快实现利率正常化,并 进一步降低利率以提供额外支持。" "因此,我们现在预计澳联储将在8月前将现金利率降至3.1%,并在2026年初降至 2.6%。" (图片来源:RealEstate) 最新调查发现,未来12个月的房价增长预期几乎翻了一番,达到2.3%(此前 ...
存款利率处下行通道,有民营银行自4月以来调整四次
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-09 04:48
Group 1 - Fujian Huadong Bank announced adjustments to personal notice deposit rates, effective May 10, 2025, with rates set at 0.8% for 1-day and 1% for 7-day deposits [1] - This marks the fourth adjustment of deposit rates by Fujian Huadong Bank since April, with significant reductions in various term deposit rates, including a 45 basis point decrease for the 3-year personal term deposit rate [3] - The bank's previous adjustments included lowering the 3-year and 5-year personal term deposit rates to 2.8% and 2.9% respectively, and various other term rates were also reduced during April [3] Group 2 - Jilin Yilian Bank adjusted its fixed-term deposit rates starting May 3, with the 2-year rate decreased from 2.4% to 2.2%, the 3-year rate from 2.6% to 2.4%, and the 5-year rate from 2.5% to 2.3%, each by 20 basis points [4] - Since April, multiple private banks have announced interest rate cuts, reflecting a broader trend in the banking sector [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the policy rate by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to influence the loan market quotation rate (LPR) to decrease by the same margin, prompting commercial banks to lower deposit rates accordingly [4]
MacroPolicy Perspectives创始人:(美联储)在某个时点将利率下调50个基点“完全合理”。劳动力市场数据显示我们正逐渐陷入衰退。
news flash· 2025-05-07 18:01
Core Viewpoint - The founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives suggests that it is "completely reasonable" for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 50 basis points at some point, indicating concerns about the labor market and a potential recession [1] Labor Market Insights - Labor market data indicates that the economy is gradually slipping into a recession, highlighting the need for potential monetary policy adjustments [1]
2025年新加坡房地产市场展望报告-虽有迷雾难掩曙光
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 15:21
Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that despite uncertainties in the Singapore real estate market, there are positive factors supporting its development [1][2] - Global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are identified as significant external challenges impacting the market [2][9] - Singapore's position as a regional financial hub and government policies are seen as stabilizing factors for the real estate market [2][10] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Singapore's GDP growth is projected to decelerate to 1-3% in 2025, down from 4.0% in 2024 [5][9] - Inflation is expected to ease to 1.5-2.5% in 2025, following a decline from 4.8% in 2023 [5][19] - Interest rates in Singapore are anticipated to follow a downward trend, with projections suggesting a decrease to 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025 [5][21] Group 3: Office Market - The office market saw a net absorption of 1.91 million sq. ft. in 2024, the highest since 2017, driven by new Grade A office developments [28] - Vacancy rates for Core CBD (Grade A) offices decreased to 4.9% by the end of 2024, indicating a flight to quality among occupiers [30] - Core CBD (Grade A) rents are expected to grow modestly by around 2% in 2025, supported by limited supply and continued demand for high-quality spaces [39] Group 4: Industrial & Logistics Market - E-commerce and logistics sectors accounted for 39% of leasing demand in 2024, indicating resilience despite challenges [46] - An estimated 4.92 million sq. ft. of logistics supply is expected in 2025, which is about 3.9% of existing warehouse stock [53] - Average prime logistics rents rose by 1.1% to $1.87 psf per month in 2024, with expectations of stability in 2025 [54] Group 5: Retail Market - Tourism recovery is projected to continue in 2025, with visitor numbers expected to rise due to new attractions and events [62][63] - Approximately 0.50 million sq. ft. of retail space is expected to complete in 2025, significantly lower than previous years, which should support retail rents [70] - Overall average retail prime rents are expected to grow by 2-3% in 2025, recovering to pre-pandemic levels [74]
路透调查:28位经济学家中有20位预计泰国央行将在4月30日将其关键利率下调至1.75%。泰国央行预计到三季度末将基准利率降至1.50%,较二月份的临时调查中公布的2.00%有所下降。
news flash· 2025-04-28 09:59
路透调查:28位经济学家中有20位预计泰国央行将在4月30日将其关键利率下调至1.75%。泰国央行预 计到三季度末将基准利率降至1.50%,较二月份的临时调查中公布的2.00%有所下降。 ...
路透调查:预计印尼央行将在2025年第二季将7天期逆回购利率下调25个基点至5.50%(与3月调查结果相同)。
news flash· 2025-04-21 08:16
Core Insights - The article indicates that the Bank of Indonesia is expected to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% in the second quarter of 2025, consistent with the results from a March survey [1] Group 1 - The anticipated rate cut aligns with previous survey findings, suggesting a stable outlook for monetary policy [1] - The adjustment reflects ongoing economic conditions and central bank strategies aimed at stimulating growth [1] - The forecasted rate of 5.50% indicates a cautious approach by the Bank of Indonesia in managing inflation and economic stability [1]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250418
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 10:12
Group 1: Hot News - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, the 7th rate cut since last June, in line with market expectations [2] - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council pointed out during the 13th special study session that policies should be implemented promptly at key time - windows and a "combination punch" should be used when necessary [2] - Domestic refined oil prices saw the "fourth decline" this year, with the largest drop in nearly three years. Since 24:00 on April 17, gasoline and diesel prices per ton were reduced by 480 yuan and 465 yuan respectively [2] - US President Trump said the Fed is responsible for lowering interest rates, and he believes Fed Chair Powell will cut rates and leave if asked [2] - As of the week ending April 17, the apparent demand for rebar increased for the ninth consecutive week, factory inventories and production decreased, and social inventories decreased for the sixth consecutive week. Apparent rebar demand was 273.82 million tons, up 21.14 million tons or 8.37% from last week [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, crude oil, asphalt, Shanghai copper, lithium carbonate, and PVC [3] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 3.33%, precious metals 28.61%, oilseeds and oils 12.59%, soft commodities 2.96%, non - ferrous metals 18.28%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.15%, energy 2.52%, chemicals 12.94%, grains 1.81%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.82% [3] Group 3: Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is presented in a graphical form without detailed numerical descriptions [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly decline of 1.66%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.13%. The Hang Seng Index rose 1.61% daily, declined 7.46% monthly, and increased 6.66% year - to - date [5] - **Fixed - income**: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures declined 0.15% daily, increased 1.04% monthly, and had a 0.06% year - to - date increase [5] - **Commodity**: WTI crude oil rose 3.36% daily, declined 9.62% monthly, and had a 10.22% year - to - date decline. London spot gold declined 0.47% daily, increased 6.53% monthly, and had a 26.78% year - to - date increase [5] - **Other**: The US dollar index rose 0.16% daily, declined 4.58% monthly, and had an 8.35% year - to - date decline. The CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, increased 46.50% monthly, and had an 88.13% year - to - date increase [5]
Are HYSAs less favorable when interest rates are low?
Yahoo Finance· 2024-12-16 20:12
Core Insights - High-yield savings accounts (HYSAs) have seen a decline in interest rates, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement further rate cuts, making these accounts less attractive compared to previous years [1][2][3] - Despite the drop, HYSAs still offer competitive rates, with some accounts providing 4% APY or more, significantly higher than traditional savings or checking accounts [2][4] - HYSAs are recommended for short to medium-term savings, such as emergency funds or specific upcoming expenses, due to their higher returns compared to most bank accounts [3][6] Summary by Sections Current State of HYSAs - The best HYSAs previously offered over 5% APY, but current rates have dropped, with the national average for checking accounts at 0.07% and savings at 0.4% as of September 2025 [1][4] - HYSAs continue to outperform traditional bank accounts, making them a viable option for savers [4] Suitability of HYSAs - HYSAs are ideal for funds that are not needed for daily expenses, with recommendations to save three to six months' worth of living expenses in an emergency fund [5][6] - They are not suitable for day-to-day spending due to potential withdrawal limits, and alternatives like checking accounts or money market accounts may be better for such needs [6][8] Alternatives to HYSAs - Money market accounts (MMAs) offer features like checks and debit cards, making them more accessible through traditional banks [8][9] - Certificates of deposit (CDs) provide fixed interest rates for a set period, but early withdrawals incur penalties, contrasting with the variable rates of HYSAs [9]