美国前副总统哈里斯：特朗普关税明显引发经济衰退。 ...

美国参议院否决了推翻特朗普关税的最新提议 周三，美国参议院否决了推翻特朗普一系列关税的最新提议。几小时前，美国政府数据显示，在关税计 划混乱的情况下，美国经济出现了三年来的首次萎缩。旨在阻止特朗普关税的措施以49赞成和49票反对 的投票结果无法获得通过，三名与特朗普决裂的共和党人投了赞成票。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：华尔街对特朗普关税的看法是错误的，因为他们没有看到"全局"。 ...

据PUNCHBOWL：亚马逊(AMZN.O)将展示每件产品受特朗普关税影响的成本。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated that the implementation of tariffs by former President Trump will depend on what trade partners desire [1] Group 1 - The decision on tariffs is influenced by the demands and negotiations with trade partners [1]

智通财经4月23日电，越南政府称，由于特朗普关税隐现，政府正在寻求更多贸易协议以驱动增长。 ...

Market Performance - The U.S. market experienced a significant downturn on April 21, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 971.82 points, a decline of 2.48%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.36% and 2.55% respectively [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.10% to close at 98.278, marking a 16-month low and the sixth time it has dropped below the 100 mark since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 [2] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds faced a sell-off, leading to a steepening yield curve, with the ratio of U.S. government bonds to global counterparts hitting a 13-month low, indicating a rapid deterioration in U.S. Treasury performance [2] Institutional Investor Behavior - Institutional investors are strategically divesting from U.S. dollar assets due to the impact of "Trump tariffs," with significant sell-offs in U.S. stocks, dollars, and Treasuries [5] - PIMCO, a major bond management firm, has adopted a "low allocation to dollars" strategy, reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries while increasing holdings in European, Japanese, and emerging market bonds [5] - Japanese insurance company Fukoku Mutual Life has announced plans to reduce foreign debt holdings and increase purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds, indicating a shift away from U.S. Treasuries [5] Federal Reserve Independence - There are concerns regarding the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence as President Trump pressures for interest rate cuts amid market volatility [3][8] - Trump's attempts to challenge the Fed's independence and possibly remove Chairman Powell face significant legal hurdles, as historical precedents require "just cause" for such actions [8][9] - Even if Powell were to be removed, he would still hold voting rights as one of the seven members of the Fed's board, limiting the impact of any potential removal [9] Economic Implications of Rate Cuts - A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while aimed at alleviating economic concerns stemming from tariffs, may not effectively restore confidence in U.S. dollar assets [11][12] - The U.S. Treasury's net interest expenditure for fiscal year 2024 is projected to be $882 billion, which constitutes 3.06% of GDP, exceeding military spending [11] - The ongoing tariff war is expected to increase core inflation rates in the U.S. by 2.5% to 3.5%, with new tariffs potentially raising annual household expenses by 10% to 15% [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic repercussions of Trump's tariff policies, drawing parallels to Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, suggesting that these actions could lead to significant instability in the dollar and the global trade order [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The long-term effects of current tariff policies could mirror the impact of Nixon's decision to abandon the gold standard, which ended the post-war financial framework established with WWII allies [2]. - Nixon's measures, including a 10% import tariff and price controls, failed to achieve their intended goals and instead led to a loss of business confidence and stagflation, contributing to severe inflation in the 1970s [2][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the dollar index has dropped from a high of 110.18 to 100.10, a decline of over 9%, investors are reassessing their strategies, leading to a shift towards gold and physical assets for preservation of value [4]. - There is a noticeable trend of investors moving away from U.S. assets, with a reevaluation of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, indicating a rapid process of de-dollarization [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The short-term political tool of tariffs may lead to long-term economic pain, as seen in Nixon's case where the economic shockwaves lasted for decades [10]. - The current financial landscape may react more swiftly to policy changes than in 1971, with the bond market potentially exerting pressure on politicians to alter their strategies more rapidly [12].

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by Trump are expected to significantly harm the U.S. economy, with the average tariff rate on all imported goods projected to rise from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, the highest since 1937, leading to an estimated decline in imports by approximately $800 billion [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has caused U.S. companies to delay major investment decisions, reflecting a broader hesitation in both corporate and consumer spending due to unpredictable economic conditions [3][4] - Major technology companies, including Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, have seen a combined market value loss of $1 trillion as a result of increased costs and supply chain pressures stemming from the tariffs [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investor and consumer confidence has been shaken, leading to a cautious approach in capital investments and spending, which in turn has contributed to a slowdown in economic activity [3] - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased, with JPMorgan raising the probability of a recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%, and other indicators reflecting a similar trend [5] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant sell-offs, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rising sharply, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. debt as a safe haven [9] Group 3: Dollar's International Standing - The tariffs are undermining the credibility of the U.S. and diminishing global demand for the dollar, particularly as countries like China may seek to reduce their dollar reserves in favor of alternatives like gold [8] - The dollar's dominance in global trade and finance is being challenged, with its share of global foreign exchange reserves at 58% and 64% of global debt denominated in dollars, raising concerns about its future stability [6][7] - The potential for a shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency is increasing, as countries may seek alternatives due to the perceived risks associated with U.S. economic policies and political actions [10]

不过，日本企业对"特朗普关税"的担忧也很强烈。对于从征税对象国家向美国出口产品、零部件 和消费品的日本企业来说，关税将会导致额外成本。关于扩大美国业务所面临的课题，列举"政策 不明朗"的企业最多，比例达到73.0％。 从行业来看，机电及精密制造、机械及材料（包括化学和纺织）以及食品等行业较为突出。从扩 大业务或开展新业务的内容（复选）来看，选择"销售"的比例最高，达到74.6％，其次是"生 产"（50.8％）、"并购"（M&A，47.6％）和"对初创企业出资"（34.9％）。 从中长期来看，在IT、能源、食品等广泛领域，美国市场有望扩大。日本企业擅长的高附加值产 品和服务存在商机。日清食品控股将于8月时隔46年在美国启动生产方便面的新工厂。住友化学 将新建半导体制造工序用清洗液工厂。 为了提高美国国内产业的活力，特朗普政府正在积极吸引外资。日本首相石破茂2月初表示，将 把日本对美投资提高到1万亿美元（约150万亿日元）。日本的企业将响应这一号召。 此次的问卷调查也询问了是否增加对美投资的问题，41.4％的日本企业回答将会增加投资或实施 新投资。这一比例较2024年12月的上次调查（16.9％）大幅上升。三菱食 ...