| 1.前言 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 2.美国经济的基本情况展示 | 2 | | 3.美国重要宏观经济指标预测 | 5 | | 4.大类资产配置时钟信号 | 6 | | 5.其他跟踪指标 | 6 | | 6.总结 | 7 | | 图 | 1：美国重要宏观经济指标 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：美大中小企业增长态势 | 2 | | 图 | 3：美国通胀率背板 | 3 | | 图 | 4：美国失业率背板 | 3 | | 图 | 5：美国联邦基金利率背板 | 3 | | 图 | 6：美国马歇尔 K 超额流动性度量 | 4 | | 图 | 7：主要利差走势 | 4 | | 图 | 8：美联储扩表行为 | 4 | | 图 | 9：美国实际利率跟踪 | 5 | | 图 | 10：美国 OECD 预测模型 | 5 | | 图 | 11：美国 CPI 预测模型 | 6 | | 图 | 12：大类资产配置时钟状态 | 6 | | 图 | 13：恐慌指数 VIX 涨跌幅 | 7 | 宏观研究 1.前言 本报告的目的在于，对美国经济情况进行跟踪从而更好的把握海外市场的基本面 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 2025年初以来，美国大幅"抢进口"，但"累库存"现象相对滞后。展望未来，美国"抢进口"能否持续，"安 全"库存水平会否提升？ 热点思考： 美国经济："消失的"库存？ 一、2025年初以来，美国累库幅度大幅落后于"超额进口" 年初以来，美国"抢进口"现象极为显著。 特朗普胜选以来，随着加征关税预期升温，美国"抢进口"现象 极为显著。中国出口、美国进口、港口数据对"抢进口"现象均有所反映。5月12日中美日内瓦谈判以来， 中国-美国集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已拉开序幕。 但是，一季度美国补库幅度远弱于商品进口，库存"去哪儿了"？ 美国一季度GDP中，商品进口拖累经济 增速5个百分点（环比年化），但库存仅拉动GDP增速2.6个百分点，幅度仅为商品进口的一半。从月度 数据角度来看，美国商品进口增速也远超库存增速。 二、如何理解美国库存与进口的分歧？一季度内需稳健+库存统计滞后 内需韧性和统计的滞后性可解释"消失"的库存。 1）一季度，美国多数行业库存增速提升，但由于美国 内需保持韧性，尤其是投资需求，导致库销比相对稳定。3月，美国商业库销比仅为1.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not comment on the U.S. economy or the FOMC interest rate outlook in his prepared remarks [1] Group 1 - The absence of commentary on the U.S. economy suggests a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy [1] - The lack of insights into interest rate projections may indicate uncertainty in the current economic climate [1]

美联储戴利：美联储货币政策和美国经济处于良好状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved significantly, leading to a cautious outlook on gold prices due to various economic factors and policy decisions [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Federal Court ruling against Trump's tariff policy has reduced concerns over international trade tensions, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures and a continuation of the downward trend in spot gold [3]. - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of a rate cut in June (2.2%) and a higher probability in September (60%), which has made gold bulls wary [3]. - Strong consumer confidence data has bolstered views on the robustness of the U.S. economy, leading to a decrease in pessimism regarding economic conditions and a reduction in gold's safe-haven demand [3]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold has formed a pattern of three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a weak short-term outlook, with key support levels at 3243 and 3214 [5]. - On the four-hour chart, gold is in a downtrend, currently in the fifth wave of a decline from 3365, with immediate support levels at 3243 and 3235, and resistance levels at 3280-3290 [7].

一、美债利率上行的原因 美东时间5月21日，美债利率全线上升，10年期美债利率突破4.6%，30年期美债利率突破5.0%，我们对此点评 如下： 第一，20年期美债拍卖结果较差，这是利率上行的导火索。 20年期美债最终得标利率为5.05%，相较4月高出 约20BP，也是自2023年11月以来首次突破5.0%整数大关，投标倍数同样出现了明显下滑。 第四，美国经济硬数据稳健，市场对通胀存在担忧，叠加美联储在降息问题上维持定力，基本面和货币政策对 利率偏空。 二、美债策略展望：短期波动不改震荡趋势，配置中短久期美债，回避长债 短期来看，上述利空因素可能将继续发酵，利率存在进一步冲高的风险，但美国评级下调等因素偏短期，影响 预计难以持久，同时美国经济在关税和通胀背景下仍有压力，认为美债利率不具备持续大幅上行的条件，维持 利率宽幅震荡的观点不变。考虑到美债票息收益可观，仍值得配置，建议维持中短久期美债的配置，以票息策 略为主，长久期债券建议回避，若10Y国债利率上升至4.7%-5%区间，可能是一个较好的配置窗口。 -END- 本期作者 陈峤 资本市场研究员 chenqiao426 @cmbch ina .com 刘东亮 ...

当地时间5月21日，路透社对经济学家的最新民调显示，逾半数受访经济学家认为特朗普政府的相关政 策对美国经济造成了重大伤害。 这项于5月14日至21日进行的调查显示，所有受访经济学家一致认为，特朗普政府的相关政策对美国经 济造成了负面影响，其中超过55%认为"造成了重大伤害"。对美国通胀的预期几乎没有变化。经济学家 普遍认为，通胀水平将在未来几年持续高于美联储2%的目标，至少延续至2027年。（央视新闻） ...

路透调查：所有41位受访经济学家均认为美国总统特朗普的政策对美国经济造成了负面影响，其中23位 认为影响显著。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government policies, including trade, have not harmed the U.S. economy, and the effects of related adjustments will take time to manifest [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes that current government policies are not detrimental to economic performance [1] - It suggests that the impacts of policy changes will require a longer time frame to become evident [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs may significantly hinder the development of the U.S. economy and weaken the labor market, as highlighted by St. Louis Fed President Musalem [1][3] - Musalem emphasized that even with recent tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. economy remain substantial [3] - The increase in tariffs raises the prices of imported goods, leading to higher consumer costs and increased production costs for businesses reliant on imported materials, which could suppress economic activity [3] Group 2 - Musalem, as a voting member of the FOMC, believes that U.S. monetary policy is well-prepared to respond flexibly to any changes in economic outlook [4] - He stressed the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, indicating that maintaining public confidence in combating inflation is crucial for economic stability [4] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market could exacerbate existing economic uncertainties, affecting market interest rates and borrowing costs [4][5] Group 3 - Bostic expressed satisfaction with the current policy stance, acknowledging that increased uncertainty may delay the normalization of U.S. monetary policy [5] - He cautioned that aggressive policy adjustments in a high-uncertainty environment could introduce more risks, hindering economic recovery [5]