Economic Factors - As of April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months as of May[4] - Consumer inflation expectations rose to 6.6%, the highest since 1981, according to a May survey[4] Market Impact - The US stock market lost over $6 trillion in market value within two trading days following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2[29] - The dollar index fell by 8.3% year-to-date as of May 31, indicating pressure on the dollar's dominance[33] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged from 4.01% to 4.48% within five trading days, reflecting market volatility[29] Political Dynamics - The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in Congress, with 219 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate as of May 31[8] - Trump's tariff policies face legal challenges, but he may utilize other legal provisions to impose tariffs quickly[34] - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 could pressure Trump to deliver on tariff promises to maintain voter support[36] International Relations - The US has not reached tariff agreements with major economies like the EU and Japan, complicating trade negotiations[38] - Other economies are adopting a cautious approach in negotiations with the US, influenced by China's strong countermeasures[38] - The potential for a "tech war" and "financial war" against China is increasing, with measures that could restrict Chinese access to technology and financial systems[46]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, which raises concerns about the overall economic outlook [1][3] - Businesses are hesitant to invest or expand due to unpredictable policy changes, while consumers face rising prices and stagnant wages, leading to more cautious spending habits [3][4] - The financial markets reacted to the news with volatility, as investors speculated on the potential for reduced corporate profitability and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy, suggesting that developments in the U.S. economy could have broader implications for financial markets and consumer behavior worldwide [4][5] - The discussions among investors reflect a mix of strategies, with some considering whether to buy into the stock market or exchange currencies based on the evolving economic landscape [4]

2025 年 6 月 7 日 2025 年 6 月 6 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 5 月非农数据：新增非农就业 13.9 万人，预期 13.0 万人，前值由 17.7 万人修正为 14.7 万人；5 月失业率 4.2%， 预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%；平均时薪同比升 3.9%，预期升 3.7%，前值由升 3.8% 修正至升 3.9%。 核心观点： 2025 年 5 月美国新增就业高于市场预期，缓和经济衰退担忧。5 月非农就业人 口增 13.9 万人，高于市场预期的增 13.0 万人，失业率也稳定在 4.2%，显示美 国就业市场相对稳健。其中，5 月底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念日，拉动出行需求， 休闲酒店业新增就业升至+4.8 万人，高于前值的+2.9 万人，是 5 月就业数据保 持稳定的主要贡献项。 从降息节奏看，5 月非农数据相对稳健，强化美联储观望态度，市场预期 6 月美 联储将不再降息，首次降息时间为 9 月。本次非农数据高于预期，失业率也未上 行，就业市场依旧稳健，短期内美联储或继续保持观望，等待经济转弱的更多信 号。非农数据公布后，10 年期国债收益率上行 11 个 bp 至 4.51%。市场预 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

宏观经济点评 2025 年 06 月 07 日 美国就业市场仍有隐忧 宏观研究团队 ——美国 5 月非农就业数据点评 3. 劳动力市场供需关系压力边际上行 从 JOLTS 数据来看，4 月份职位空缺数为 739.1 万人，较 3 月上升约 19.1 万 人，职位空缺率为 4.4%，目前每个求职者对应约 1.02 个工作岗位，美国劳动力 市场的供需紧张程度边际上行。同时，职工主动离职率录得 2.0%、解雇裁员率 录得 1.3%，主动离职率与解雇裁员率走势分化，我们认为，可能是在不确定性 较高的 4 月，企业选择加大裁员力度，而员工则选择减少离职。 美国就业数据仍有隐忧，美联储或将保持观望 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 5 月非农就业数据。其中新增非农就业 13.9 万，超市场预期。 失业率为 4.2%，符合市场预期。平均时薪同比增长 3.9%，超市场预期。 新增非农略超预期，失业 ...

Core Insights - The May non-farm payroll report from the U.S. Department of Labor indicates a resilient labor market, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the market expectation of 126,000 [2] - However, significant downward revisions to previous months' data, with a total adjustment of 95,000 jobs, suggest that the actual momentum in the labor market may not be as strong as it appears [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, reflecting labor market stability [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, indicating an improvement in consumers' purchasing power [2] Industry Performance - The healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors were the main contributors to job growth, adding 126,000 new positions [2] - Conversely, manufacturing, retail, and federal government employment experienced declines, with federal government jobs decreasing by 22,000 [2] - The downturn in manufacturing and retail may be linked to uncertainties surrounding trade policies [2] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.2%, reaching a new high for the year [3] - The dollar index initially rose but recorded a decline over the week due to previous weak ADP data [3] - Interest rate expectations shifted, with the market now anticipating a 25 basis point cut in both November and December, rather than a larger cut [3] Economic Outlook - The non-farm data presents mixed signals, with strong job additions and wage growth supporting consumer spending, while the downward revisions and manufacturing decline raise concerns about investment and expansion [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, likely holding rates steady in September while awaiting further data [4] - Future focus will be on inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, particularly the upcoming CPI report on June 11 and the interest rate decision on June 19 [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months, which is better than market expectations but below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department significantly revised down the employment data for March and April, reducing the combined job growth for these two months by 95,000 [1] - Employment growth in May was primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, which collectively added 126,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing and retail sectors, which are closely tied to trade, showed signs of weakness, with manufacturing losing 8,000 jobs and retail shedding 6,500 jobs [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in May was $36.24, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The cautious sentiment surrounding the May employment data reflects businesses' uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic growth [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slight cooling in May, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, the lowest since February, and previous months' figures revised down by 95,000 [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above economists' expectations [2][7] - The report alleviated concerns about a potential recession, as it indicated that employers are cautious but not drastically cutting jobs despite higher costs from tariffs and a slowing economy [1][3] Group 2 - The service sector, particularly healthcare and leisure industries, showed strong performance, while manufacturing jobs unexpectedly decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [3][6] - Federal government job cuts totaled 22,000 in May, the largest since 2020, raising concerns about the impact of government spending cuts on the job market [6] - Despite large layoffs from major companies like Microsoft and Disney, job openings in April unexpectedly increased, indicating a mixed picture for the labor market [6] Group 3 - The non-farm payroll data was seen as favorable for the stock market, with predictions from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan indicating potential increases in the S&P 500 index following the report [8][9] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain intact, with traders betting on two rate cuts this year, the first likely in September [9][10] - Economists are closely monitoring labor supply and demand dynamics, especially in light of inflation risks associated with tariff policies [7][11]

金十数据6月6日讯，机构分析师就美国非农报告表示，一些数据确实表明就业市场将继续走软。前两个 月的就业数据下修幅度很大，参与率下降，而且，家庭调查数据疲弱。然而，这并不意味着美国经济状 况正在急剧下滑，但它确实增强了今年下半年美国经济将面临更大挑战的观点。 分析师：非农数据增强了美国经济在下半年面临挑战的观点 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected increase of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 177,000 to 147,000, reflecting a downward adjustment of 95,000 jobs over the past two months [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. for May stood at 4.2%, consistent with both the expected value and the previous value [1] - The data suggests a slowdown in employment growth in May, with previous months' figures being revised down, indicating that employers are cautious about growth prospects amid the economic policies of the Trump administration [1]