美联储哈玛克：美国经济呈现出强劲的韧性。 ...

IMF首席经济学家Gourinchas：美国经济正从强势起点出发。 ...

美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）主席：并购对美国经济有利。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the expected investment returns will be in line with market benchmarks within the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the second consecutive meeting, adjusting inflation forecasts upward while lowering economic growth predictions, which aligns with market expectations [3][5]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell indicated that inflation caused by tariffs is considered temporary, which has significantly eased market concerns, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets and a decline in bond yields [3][5][11]. - The report anticipates 2-3 potential interest rate cuts within the year, driven by economic pressures and the expected implementation of tax cuts later in the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting on March 20 resulted in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the next meeting scheduled for May 7 [2]. - The Fed's statement showed minor changes, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7]. Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts while lowering GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with GDP growth rates adjusted down by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [8][9]. - The median PCE inflation rate for 2025 is now projected at 2.7%, up from 2.5% in December [9]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.4% [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5 basis points to 3.99% [4]. Economic Health Assessment - Powell described the U.S. economy as "healthy," despite acknowledging an increased risk of recession, attributing recent economic data fluctuations to the initial turbulence of the Trump administration [11][21]. - The report highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with significant inflation pressures anticipated to manifest in the upcoming months [11][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and indicates a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction process [7][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time since the rate cut in September 2024, while also reducing the monthly limit for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's economic outlook shows a weakening economy, with an upward revision of the unemployment rate to 4.4% for 2025, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward to 2.7% for the same year [15][20]. - The dot plot indicates that nearly 80% of members expect at least a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with close to 60% anticipating a 50 basis point cut [13][15]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, with the total assets decreasing from a peak of $8.96 trillion in March 2022 to $6.8 trillion as of March 12, 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's statement removed the phrase "risk balance" and emphasized economic stability, noting that recent indicators show steady economic expansion [10][20]. Economic Projections - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, while maintaining long-term growth expectations at 1.8% [15][17]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2025, with core inflation expectations adjusted to 2.8% for the same year [15][17]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a rate cut in June 2025, with a potential 50 basis point reduction anticipated [20][21]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell stated that there is no rush to cut rates, emphasizing the need for clearer market signals before making policy adjustments [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, indicates that there is no immediate need to lower interest rates despite uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies. The current economic conditions remain stable, and the Fed will adopt a patient approach while awaiting clearer signals regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Powell emphasizes that the U.S. economy is currently in good shape, with a balanced and robust job market. The Fed's focus is on distinguishing genuine signals from market noise amid economic changes [1][4]. - The February non-farm payroll report showed a job growth of 151,000, slightly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest since November of the previous year [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's trade policies is acknowledged as a significant factor affecting economic conditions. The Fed is assessing the impact of these trade policy changes, which have heightened economic uncertainty [1][4]. - Powell notes that the rise in tariffs is pushing up prices for certain goods, which could affect inflation expectations. However, long-term inflation expectations remain stable and aligned with the Fed's targets [5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer and business inflation expectations, as these can become self-fulfilling. If long-term inflation expectations rise, the Fed may reconsider its stance on interest rate cuts [5]. - Powell suggests that if the tariff impacts are deemed temporary, the Fed may choose to ignore them in its monetary policy decisions [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices initially dropped but later rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising over 0.9%. Treasury yields also experienced fluctuations, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's communication [7].

美元意外大跌。 全球汇率市场风云突变，美元指数连续两日大跌超0.9%后，今日再度跳水，跌破105关口，创去年11月12日以 来新低。这让不少押注美元在"贸易战"下有望走强的投资者措手不及。 有分析称，投资者担忧贸易战升级将削弱美国经济，动摇美元避险地位。另外，越来越多的投资者押注美联储 将在未来几个月内恢复降息，美元可能进一步走弱。 值得一提的是，华尔街对美元的前景展望正在发生重大转变。其中，德意志银行在最新发布的报告中表示，随 着全球市场适应新的地缘政治秩序，美元可能会失去其传统的避险地位；Pepperstone策略师迈克尔·布朗表 示，美元已从"最好的货币"变为"不想碰的货币"；加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场外汇策略主管Sarah Ying也表 示，市场正从系统性看涨美元转向看跌美元。 美元大跌 在特朗普掀起"贸易战"的背景下，美元意外大跌。 本周以来，美元指数持续下挫，周一大跌0.96%后，周二再度大幅收跌0.94%。今日，美元指数再度跳水，跌 破105关口，创去年11月12日以来新低。 市场分析称，投资者担忧贸易战升级将削弱美国经济，动摇美元避险地位。 与此同时，华尔街对美元的前景展望也正在发生重大转变。 ...