国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：继续回落 白银：高位震荡 07 锡：微观基本面转弱 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：微观边际转弱，宏观缺乏确定性，价格震荡 铝：关注回调压力 氧化铝："反内卷"暂未出行业细则，估值不宜给高 04 铸造铝合金：成本支撑逻辑仍在，价格窄幅震荡 05 锌：累库较慢 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was signed by Trump on July 4, marking a new phase in U.S. fiscal policy [1] - The core purpose of the bill is to alleviate economic pressure caused by significant tariff increases, with the government opting for tariffs to offset fiscal deficits from corporate tax cuts and expanded spending [1][5] - Trump plans to send tariff notifications to over 170 trade partners starting July 5, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive negotiation strategy [1][3] Group 2 - India has submitted a notification to the WTO regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on imported cars and parts, planning retaliatory measures against U.S. goods [5] - The deadlock in negotiations between the U.S. and India is largely due to disagreements over agricultural and dairy products, with India unwilling to lower tariffs on key agricultural imports [5][9] - Japan is facing potential tariffs of 30% to 35% from the U.S., with ongoing disputes over automotive and agricultural issues, highlighting the complexity of U.S.-Japan trade relations [9][10] Group 3 - The EU and South Korea are prepared to take more aggressive measures if negotiations are not completed by July 9, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [10] - The outcomes of these negotiations will depend on the strength and resolve of the involved parties, including India, Japan, the EU, and South Korea [10]

特朗普称8月1日起实施新关税最高税率或达70% 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴，设定新的单边关税税 率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九"从8月1日开始生效。 特朗普表示，从7月4日开始，美国将向多个国家发出信件，预计当天会有"10或12封"发出，更多信件将 在未来几天寄出。特朗普称，他预计这些信件将会在9日前全部送达。此前，特朗普将7月9日设为关税 谈判的最后期限。 对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可能从60%、70%到10%、20%不等"。特朗普称，"我们已 经完成了(信函的)最终文本，它将基本说明这些国家将要支付的关税是多少"。 美国有线电视新闻网报道说，目前尚不清楚哪些国家将收到这些信件，但特朗普曾点名"批评"包括欧盟 和日本在内的某些贸易伙伴在谈判中过于强硬。特朗普本周曾威胁要向"被宠坏的"日本发出一封信，将 其关税税率设定为高达35%。 今年4月，特朗普对美国的多数贸易伙伴征收了高达50%的"对等"关税。美国彭博社称，如果新关税比 所谓"对等关税"的税率更高，将增加美国经济的通胀风险。美国有线电视新闻网称，50%的关税曾在4 月导致美国股市陷入熊市区域， ...

Group 1 - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of US tariffs on Indian automotive exports [1] - The EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the US on tariffs before the July 9 deadline, but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [3] - Japan and the US trade negotiations are at a standstill, with key issues being automotive and agricultural tariffs [3] Group 2 - India and the US are in discussions regarding tariffs, but remain divided on agricultural and dairy products, which India considers "red lines" [4] - India's Finance Minister has emphasized the importance of protecting domestic farmers' interests in trade negotiations with the US [4] - The EU's readiness to defend its economic interests indicates a potential escalation in trade tensions if agreements are not reached [3]

金十数据7月4日讯，印尼首席经济部长：在关税谈判中，印尼已提议对美国20种主要出口商品提供近零 关税的优惠待遇。国防采购并未纳入印尼与美国的关税谈判内容。印尼对与美国达成协议持乐观态度， 并计划向美国企业提供参与关键矿产项目投资的机会。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 印尼对美释放善意 20类出口产品享近零关税 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-04原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：伊朗外交部长表示，尽管该国宣布暂停与联合国核监督机构的合作，但将继续与该机构接触； 美国6月非农就业数据超预期，失业率降至4.1%，经季节性因素调整后，6月非农就业人数增加14.7万人， 高于预期的11万人；媒体援引不愿透露姓名的代表称，OPEC+已开始讨论在8月份再增加每日41.1万桶的产 量，此举在该组织本周末的视频会议前已提上议程；中性 2.基差：7月3日，阿曼原油现货价为69.84美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.42美元/桶，基差13.66元 /桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存： ...

Core Viewpoint - Maersk estimates that the effective average tariff rate on container goods shipped to the U.S. is 21%, significantly reduced from the peak of 54% prior to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs in April [1] Group 1: Tariff Insights - The effective average tariff rate of 21% is a notable decrease, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [1] - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs is set to expire in July and August, which may impact global trade and consumer sentiment in the coming months [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Client Behavior - Maersk observed strong growth in container demand during the first half of the year, attributed to clients placing orders ahead of tariff announcements [1] - Many large U.S. clients have reduced their reliance on China, with some apparel and fashion clients depending on China to a single-digit percentage, while other products like home improvement goods still show significant reliance on Chinese manufacturing [1]

现在距离美方设定的所谓关税谈判截止日期还剩不到一周时间，欧盟、日本、印度等多方都强调了捍卫 自身利益的坚定立场。欧盟两手准备应对与美关税谈判，3日，欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务 的委员谢夫乔维奇在华盛顿与美国代表举行会谈。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当天表示，在关税问题上欧 盟希望通过谈判解决问题，并"准备好与美国达成一项原则性协议"；但若谈判失败，欧盟将坚决采取反 制措施以保护欧洲经济，"所有应对手段都在考虑之中"。目前，美国对欧盟汽车及零部件征收25%关 税，对钢铝产品征收50%关税。同时，美国正考虑将对欧盟的关税进一步扩大到木材、航空零部件、药 品、芯片和关键矿产等领域。(央视新闻) ...

韩国贸易部长将于周五前往美国进行关税谈判。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for the dollar is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, dispelling the expectation of an interest rate cut in July. The employment market remained resilient, but its structure deteriorated. The data supported the Fed to continue to observe cautiously. Market expectations of an interest rate cut cooled further after the data release [1][2][3] - Strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. However, the market underestimated the deterioration of the employment market structure, and the subsequent weakening of the employment market might cause disturbances [4][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US June Non - farm Payrolls Situation - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected and the previous value [2][9] - In terms of industries, new jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (51,000), leisure and hospitality (20,000), and government departments (73,000). Layoffs increased in some sectors such as professional and business services (7,000), wholesale (6,600), and other services (5,000) [2][18] 2. Investment Advice - The overall strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. The market was trading around tariff negotiations and tax cut bills. The implementation of the tax cut bill continued to support market risk appetite. The dollar and US Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks were oscillating strongly, and gold still faced a correction risk [4][40]