国内经济迎来良好开局 政策加力应对外部冲击 -- 2025年一季度宏观经济分析及展望 研发部 何金中 郭文硕 宏观研究报告 十年级 anghai Brilliance Rating 摘要: 2025年第一季度,我国经济迎来良好开局。需求方面,全球制造业 景气度回升和"抢出口"支撑下出口维持韧性:"两新""两重"拉动社零消 费和固定资产投资改善。供给方面,服务业和工业生产均加快,其中信息传输 软件和信息技术服务业、租赁和商务服务业、通用设备制造业、电气机械和器 材制造业、计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业、汽车制造业以及化工产业链中 下游行业等表现较为强势。此外,CPI、PPI、GDP 平减指数三大指标指向供需 缺口仍有待收敛;居民就业形势基本稳定,结构性问题仍较为突出:政府债融 资成为社融增量主要支撑,M1-M2 剪刀差显示经济活跃度回升。第二季度以来, 中美"关税战"急剧升温,后续走势存在较大变数,出口将承受一定压力。4月 底召开的中共中央政治局会议要求"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧 变化的不确定性","两新"、"两重"加力扩容下社零消费、固定资产投资增速 有望继续回升,对冲外部不利影响。综合预计,第二 ...

在稳增长和双循环的背景下，地方招商引资和行销本地产品的竞争将更为激烈。在未来一个月的时间 里，多地将密集举办大型展会，通过展会吸引投资和推介本地产品。 从官方公开发布的信息来看，湖北光博会、陕西丝博会、重庆西洽会、四川西博会和云南南博会这几个 大型展会几乎是连着甚至同时举行。不同在于，光博会是光电领域的专业性展会，而其他则是综合性展 会，另外，丝博会和南博会的对外交流属性更强。 重庆综合经济研究院研究员易小光向第一财经表示，地方政府通过举办展会搭建起交流的平台，吸引全 国乃至全球的资金、人才和企业聚集。从全球来看，展会都是城市很重要的功能性平台，以此可以聚焦 要素、产生影响力、建立各种渠道。 根据官方发布的资料，前六届西洽会总签约项目超过1200个，投资金额超过2万亿元，为重庆经济发展 提供了重要动力；武汉光博会自2002年首次举办，2024年光谷GDP突破3200亿元，光电子信息产业规模 达6000亿元，助推全区GDP同比增长7.1%。 易小光表示，因此，各省市都非常重视举办展会，无论是对于宣传自身，招商引资，还是通过办好展会 提升服务功能，改善基础设施和服务生态，营造好的发展环境。另外，各地也是根据自身特 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on enhancing the overall effectiveness of the agricultural technology innovation system in China, with a focus on reforming the agricultural technology system to stimulate innovation vitality [1][2] - The "Implementation Opinions" aim to establish an efficient agricultural technology innovation system by 2035, integrating agricultural technology innovation with industrial innovation, and fostering globally leading agricultural technology enterprises [2] - The report highlights the importance of agricultural security in the context of rising trade tensions between China and the US, which has led to significant changes in the international grain market [2] Group 2 - The agricultural machinery industry in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.8% from 2020 to 2024, with an expected output value of 598 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The government has increased subsidies for agricultural machinery purchases to 20 billion yuan in 2024, with additional incentives for smart agricultural machinery [3] - The restructuring of the agricultural machinery industry is driven by both market forces and policy guidance, leading to a shift in production bases from coastal regions to central and western China [3][4] Group 3 - The restructuring of the agricultural machinery industry has led to the emergence of a "whole machine + supporting" vertical integration system, breaking traditional transfer models and fostering endogenous growth in central and western regions [4] - The spatial restructuring of the agricultural machinery industry is seen as a proactive response to the adjustments in the global economic order, facilitating innovation and regional coordinated development [4]

这场日内瓦会谈彻底撕破了特朗普"美国优先"的画皮，是美国历史性的关税大溃败，是特朗普被现实打 脸打到清醒的体现。 根据联合声明，美方被迫取消91%的对华关税，暂停24%的对等关税90天，仅保留10%的象征性关税。 这相当于特朗普4月发动的"超级关税战"被中方一拳打回原形。 特朗普4月发起的关税突袭，本质是其"交易艺术"的升级版，试图通过短期高压迫使中国在科技、市场 准入等核心领域让步。 但中国以"你打你的，我打我的"战术，用稀土管制卡住美国军工供应链，以对等关税反制民生商品，最 终让美国财政部长贝森特不得不低头谈判。 这种"边打边谈"的模式，既非全面和解，也非彻底脱钩，而是双方在实力较量后的战术调整。 美国的这次狼狈退让暴露出现三大致命伤： 一是暴露出美国的经济脆弱性，中国商品占美国进口总额的20%，高关税直接推高通胀，引发民众抢购 囤积。加州州长甚至公开反对特朗普政策，称其将导致300万人失业。 二是暴露出美国的政治分裂，共和党内部对关税政策的不满与日俱增，民主党借机攻击特朗普"外交混 乱"，迫使白宫在中期选举前寻求缓和。 美国对中国商品的综合税率从145%暴跌至30%，中国则以对等力度反制，让美方尝到了搬 ...

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年5月12日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 本周主要国家 经济数据公布日程 (1) 中国市场焦点 政策包助力稳市场预期 股票 关注贸易摩擦下的确定性； 阳光电源；恒瑞医药 ETF 华夏沪深300指数ETF (2) 日本市场焦点 贸易战拖累 日本经济增长 股票 关注稳健的高股息股票； 日本高息股列表 ETF NEXT FUNDS日经225 高股息股票50 ETF (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 工党以大比数优势 胜出大选 股票 过往能源及原材料板块在 工党胜选后表现优异; Northern Star； 萊納斯稀土 ETF iShares安硕MSCI 澳大利亚ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 上周环球 股市表现 英美达成贸易协定，中美开启贸易谈判，全球市场情绪向好 | | | | | | 环球主要股票市场表现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Insights - The event "Coordinated Action: Integration of Logistics and Trade" is part of the 2025 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei trade and investment promotion series, highlighting the strategic importance of logistics and trade integration for regional development [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was co-hosted by trade promotion associations and chambers of commerce from Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, emphasizing the collaborative efforts in logistics and trade [1] - Key speeches were delivered by officials and experts, underlining the necessity of modern logistics for the region's development and providing theoretical and practical support for logistics and trade integration [3] Group 2: Project Announcements - Five key projects were announced during the event, with a total cooperation amount of 300 million yuan, showcasing the tangible outcomes of regional collaboration [5] - A partnership was established between the Daxing International Hydrogen Energy Demonstration Zone and the Beijing South Logistics Base to promote low-carbon and green logistics initiatives [5][6] Group 3: Discussions and Future Directions - A roundtable discussion focused on strengthening logistics hub functions and promoting industrial collaboration, addressing both future aspirations and practical challenges in the logistics sector [8] - The Beijing South Logistics Base is enhancing its capabilities through three main pathways: green logistics, smart logistics, and international collaboration, aiming to become a benchmark for zero-carbon logistics [8]

Economic Performance - Zhejiang Province reported a GDP growth rate of 6.0% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations and demonstrating resilience amid uncertainties from the "tariff war" with the U.S. [1] - The province's import and export volume increased by 7.3% year-on-year, contributing 66.4% to the national growth, with exports rising by 11.1% [1][2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is recovering, serving as a necessary counterbalance to external risks and aligning with the goal of building a "dual circulation" development pattern [2] - Consumer spending has shown signs of recovery, with per capita tourism spending during the Spring Festival reaching 1455 yuan, the highest in recent years [2] - The film box office and ticket sales during the Spring Festival increased by 45.3% and 40.5% year-on-year, indicating a resurgence in social consumption [2] - Project investment grew by 11.5% in the first quarter, with nearly 70% of new projects from the 1364 major projects initiated [2] Innovation and Technology - The potential for innovation is a key factor in economic resilience, with high-tech manufacturing investment growing by 12.1% in the first quarter [3] - Investment in manufacturing technology upgrades and equipment purchases increased by 15.9% and 9.2%, respectively [3] External Environment - The external economic environment remains complex, with the IMF projecting global economic growth at 2.8% and trade growth at 1.7% for 2025, both down from previous forecasts [3] - The "tariff war" is expected to persist, necessitating strategic responses to mitigate risks and stabilize economic growth [3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on stabilizing enterprises and exports through personalized support policies and increased financial assistance for foreign trade companies [4] - Encouragement of domestic consumption and investment in public services and employment to stimulate economic activity [4] - Focus on promoting new consumption trends and enhancing logistics infrastructure to support retail [4] Long-term Strategy - The strategy includes advancing technological innovation and fostering a self-reliant economy through initiatives like the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan [5] - High-level openness is prioritized, with plans to leverage free trade zones and pilot cities to align with international trade standards [5]

一名外籍游客在天津国际邮轮母港客运大厅与演出人员合影。新华社记者 赵子硕摄 国家移民管理局通报，今年"五一"假期全国边检机关共保障1089.6万人次中外人员出入境。朱慧卿作 （新华社发） "五一"假期，小朋友身着汉服在河南省许昌市曹魏古城游玩。牛书培摄（新华社发） 近期，北京地铁8号线王府井站开通货币兑换服务，便利境外游客支付需求与本地居民出境金融需要。 新华社记者 鞠焕宗摄 今年"五一"，是中国实施240小时过境免签政策后的首个"五一"假期。全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比 增长6.4%；1089.6万人次中外人员出入境，同比增长28.7%；外国游客出入境111.5万人次，同比增长 43.1%…… 表现亮眼的2025"五一"数据再次成为全球观察中国的窗口。从"票根经济"到免签政策，从县域旅游到跨 境"双向奔赴"，外媒透过中国"五一"假日样本，关注中国"假日经济"活力。 消费场景创新与下沉市场崛起为境内外游客带来丰富体验 今年"五一"假期，各地创新消费场景，为境内外游客带来丰富体验，同时以县域旅游为代表的下沉市场 潜力得到进一步挖掘。 美国"精奢商业观察"网站发布报道称，中国消费者在首个大假期考验中经受住外部 ...

1.中信证券：聚焦三大不变趋势 中信证券裘翔称，配置上，除短期热点主题轮动，建议聚焦三个大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势；三是中国势必要走通"双循环"，加 速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 【 机构观点综评 】中信证券称，配置上，除短期热点主题轮动，建议聚焦三个大趋势。中金固收团队 称，建议把握二三季度配置窗口，布局债市牛市行情。 一、焦点锐评 1. 降准、降息加增量政策，三部门发力稳预期！ 5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准 0.5个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分 点，设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。金融监管总局将推出八项增量政策，包括加快出台适配 房地产发展新模式的融资制度、再批复600亿元保险资金长期投资试点等。证监会将全力支持中央汇金 发挥好类"平准基金"作用，出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策措施等。 【点评】当前宏观经济面临国内政策变动和经济波动超预期的风险，尤其在中美经贸关系尚未明朗、关 税影响逐步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The deep cooperation between the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is essential for promoting regional strategic integration and enhancing economic development in China, serving as a key driver for national economic transformation and upgrading [2][3]. Group 1: Regional Cooperation Foundation - The regional cooperation foundation is solid, with Guangdong and Shanghai ranking 4th in the national regional linkage index, following Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Beijing [3]. - In 2024, Guangdong's investment in Shanghai is expected to account for 15.08% of the total domestic investment in Shanghai, marking an 8.85% increase from the previous year [3]. - The number of cross-regional mergers and acquisitions between Shanghai and the Greater Bay Area increased by 15.80% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Areas for Deepening Cooperation - Key areas for deepening cooperation include technology innovation, industrial collaboration, financial interconnectivity, talent mobility, port logistics, and green transformation [4]. - The joint application of patents between Shanghai and the Greater Bay Area increased by 35.64%, while the transfer of patents across regions grew by 50.41% [3][4]. - The establishment of a carbon emissions trading market and a carbon accounting standard system is proposed to support green transformation efforts [4]. Group 3: Optimization of Cooperation Mechanisms - The regional strategies should function as an interconnected system rather than isolated entities, promoting collaboration among various stakeholders [5]. - Regular high-level dialogue platforms involving governments, enterprises, universities, and research institutions are recommended to enhance communication and policy coordination [5]. - The establishment of cross-regional think tanks and research platforms is suggested to foster innovation and share best practices in regional cooperation [5].