【冠通研究】 跌至历史低点，盘面小幅反弹 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开高走小幅翻红，现货报价跌势显著，连续下跌之 下，工厂出货压力增加，关注今日翻红后周末成交情况。基本面来看，日产高 位带来的压力尚无改善预期，供应端减弱拐点未至，日产维持在 20 万吨左右， 上游工厂依然以临时检修减产为主，本周目前有三家企业有检修计划。需求 端，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启动；复合肥厂内成品库 存去化受阻，开工负荷连续下调，企业以销定产，对尿素支撑边际继续减弱， 其他工业需求也多以羸弱为主，供需宽松格局明显。库存端出口集港预计在六 月下旬之后进行，出口企业主动累库，且新单成交不畅，供应不减压力下，企 业库存连连增加。整体来说，今日尿素小幅反弹主要系低位盘整，基本面尚无 改善，依然处于宽松格局，盘面向上动能不足，具体高度需关注出口情况及农 需拿货。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1655 元/吨高开高走，最终收于 1661 元/吨， 收成一根阳线，涨跌 0.42%，持仓量 284793 手（-22286 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头- ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250613: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 6月12日 6月11日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1635.00 1740.00 1600.00 | 1647.00 1750.00 1620.00 | -12.00 -10.00 -20.00 | -0.73% -0.57% -1.23% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1664.00 | 1685.00 | -21.00 | -1.25% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1646.00 | 1667.00 | -21.00 | -1.26% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | -1.14% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction of urea persists, and the futures price has reached a new low in the past five months. The downstream agricultural demand is advancing slower than expected, and the industrial demand has decreased. After the inspection information for urea exports is clarified, the export window has opened, but the port inventory has only increased slightly. Some upstream factory inventories are still in the inspection stage, and the factory inventory has accumulated. The urea production facilities have few maintenance activities, and the production remains at a high level, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The prices of upstream raw materials such as coal and natural gas have changed slightly, and the cost has remained stable [1] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, the price of the urea main continuous contract, and the 1-5, 5-9, and 9-1 spreads [7][8][9][12][15] Urea Production - The report shows figures on the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [15] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report presents figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal-based capacity utilization rate, and gas-based capacity utilization rate [17][30][28] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report contains figures on the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic Sea and Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small and large granular urea in China, the price differences, and the export and futures export profits [27][29][33][37][39] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report provides figures on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [46][42][47] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [45][47][50]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250612: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1647.00 1750.00 1620.00 | 1646.00 1760.00 1640.00 | 1.00 -10.00 -20.00 | 0.06% -0.57% -1.22% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1685.00 | 1681.00 | 4.00 | 0.24% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1667.00 | 1678.00 | -11.00 | -0.66% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 1760.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea price is fluctuating at a low level. The supply is stable, but the high daily production restricts the upward space of the price. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak without significant changes in export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower, continuing to hit new lows. The spot price was mainly stable with a downward trend due to the weak futures market. The supply was stable, but the high daily production limited the upward space of the price. The demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1700 yuan/ton and closed at 1667 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. The trading volume was 287,041 lots, an increase of 18,208 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 7,005 lots, and the short positions increased by 18,351 lots [2]. Spot - Affected by the weak futures market, the urea spot market had difficulty in receiving orders, and the price was mainly stable with a downward trend. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][5]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,042, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9 in Puyang Huangfu [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Data - On June 11, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous day [10]. Inventory Data - As of June 11, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 13.69% [13]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 11, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.71 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low on June 10, 2025, with a nearly 2% decline in the afternoon. The market sentiment is expected to continue weakening. Although supply has decreased slightly due to temporary inspections in some factories, the daily output remains around 200,000 tons, limiting the upside of the futures price. The demand is weak, with slow agricultural demand and low operating loads in compound fertilizer factories. After the wheat harvest, agricultural demand is expected to increase, but it may not change the oversupply situation. The current low price may lead to a rebound, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment is expected to weaken. Supply decreased slightly, but daily output is still around 200,000 tons, restricting the upside. Demand is weak, and after the wheat harvest, agricultural demand may increase but has limited support [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,700 yuan/ton and closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, a -1.24% change. The trading volume was 268,833 lots (+2,976 lots). The positions of the top 20 main players showed a decrease of 6,305 lots in long positions and an increase of 955 lots in short positions. On June 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,051, a decrease of 2 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: After a price cut yesterday, orders improved and prices were slightly raised. However, with the decline in futures today, the market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex-factory prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market price was stable, while the futures closing price declined. The basis of the September contract in Shandong strengthened by 19 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On June 10, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day [9].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250610: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 6月9日 6月6日 单位 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1656.00 1695.00 1760.00 | 1669.00 1700.00 1830.00 | -13.00 -5.00 -70.00 | -0.78% -0.29% -3.83% | | | 民素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1697.00 | 1720.00 | -23.00 | -1.34% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1690.00 | -50.00 | -2.96% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1830.00 | -70.00 | -3.83% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 31 元至 1697 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 70 元至 1760 元/吨，多头持仓增加 13605 手至 20.34 万手，空头持仓增加 17897 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 尿素 | 加 震荡偏 | 手至 20.39 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.77 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.27 万吨，较去年同 期增加 3.52 万吨；开工 90.33%，较去年同期 79.64%提升 10.69%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 103.54 万吨，较上周增加 5.48 万吨，环比增 5.59%。尿素港口库存 20.5 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.1 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

| | | 尿素早评20250609:关注后市反弹机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 6月6日 6月5日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1830.00 | 1670.00 1850.00 | -1.00 -20.00 | | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1700.00 | 1701.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | (收盘价) | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1722.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1840.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小額粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1850.00 | 1860.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | | | 东北 ...