2025 年 08 月 28 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16890 | -0.24% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1987 | -0.25% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 49426 | 4245 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6584 | 1465 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 49915 | -931 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 161771 | 859 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -38.74 | 5.26 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -25 | -5 | 进口升贴水（美 | 110 | 5 | | | | | 元/吨） ...

每经AI快讯，周三（8月27日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌6.19个基点报3.611%，3年 期美债收益率跌3.64个基点报3.583%，5年期美债收益率跌3.84个基点报3.700%，10年期美债收益率跌 2.72个基点报4.234%，30年期美债收益率跌0.10个基点报4.919%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed [1][2][3] - Trump's threat to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook has sparked fears of a prolonged legal battle, which could further politicize the central bank [2][3] - If Cook is removed, Trump could gain control over four out of seven Fed board seats, potentially leading to a more dovish monetary policy stance [1][3] Group 2 - The dollar experienced volatility, initially weakening but recovering some losses, with the dollar index fluctuating around 98.47 [2] - Market expectations for faster and deeper interest rate cuts by the Fed are increasing, particularly if Cook is dismissed and replaced by a more dovish candidate [3][4] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since May 1, reaching 3.6540%, driven by market risk aversion and increased bets on Fed rate cuts [4][5] Group 3 - Long-term Treasury yields are rising due to concerns that accelerated monetary easing could lead to renewed inflation, with the 30-year yield hovering around 4.9223% [5] - The political influence on the Fed is perceived to undermine its ability to manage market expectations effectively, potentially leading to a steeper yield curve [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant V-shaped reversal, with prices surging by $45 to challenge the $3400 mark after intense competition between bulls and bears [1][10]. Market Movement - After a volatile session with rapid price fluctuations, gold prices reached a high of $3395 today [3]. - Following this peak, there was a pullback, with prices dropping below the $3380 level [4]. - The next support level is seen at $3373, where a rebound opportunity may arise [5]. - The upward trend continues, with the potential to break above $3400 [6]. - The market is expected to face resistance at $3438 [7]. - However, prices are currently below $3400 and are experiencing another correction [8]. - A drop below $3373 indicates a further decline towards the $3350 support level [9]. Influencing Factors - Recent developments include pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased concerns about U.S. sovereign credit risk and rising U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting gold prices [10]. - Trump's renewed imposition of tariffs, including on furniture, has put additional pressure on the dollar, further supporting gold's upward movement [11]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials are expected to focus on interest rate cut expectations, with the potential for tariff policies to influence the Fed's decisions [12]. Broader Economic Context - Global central bank debt is reaching critical levels, with Japan's central bank setting a record for debt repayment budgets [13]. - A global trend of interest rate cuts is emerging, leading to an increasing burden of debt [14]. - The year 2025 is anticipated to be significant not only for tariffs but also for challenges facing the financial system due to rising debt levels [15].

Group 1 - The majority of U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday, August 26, with the 2-year yield falling by 4.26 basis points to 3.672% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.77 basis points to 3.619% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 4.20 basis points to 3.738% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 0.78 basis points to 4.261% [1] - In contrast, the 30-year Treasury yield increased by 3.56 basis points to 4.920% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound after a brief adjustment, with a notable increase of $35, but faced a subsequent pullback, indicating a volatile trading environment around the $3400 mark [1][10]. Market Trends - Gold saw a minor adjustment of only $15 yesterday, followed by a V-shaped recovery today [3]. - The price surged to $3386 before retreating, suggesting a potential resistance level [4]. - Current focus is on the adjustment and rebound opportunities, particularly around the $3378 level [5]. - A breakthrough above previous highs indicates a target towards the $3400 resistance [6]. Support and Resistance Levels - The market is currently testing the $3378 resistance level, with potential support seen at $3350 [7][8]. - If the price continues to decline, a drop below $3350 could occur [9]. - The overall trend shows a four-month increase followed by a four-month consolidation phase, with the price oscillating around the $3300-$3400 range [10]. Economic Influences - Recent positive U.S. economic data, particularly in housing, has raised inflation expectations, impacting gold prices negatively [11]. - Political pressures from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve have also influenced market dynamics, contributing to gold's volatility [12]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence, are expected to impact both the stock market and gold prices [13]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [13]. - A successful trading strategy involves following experienced traders to achieve higher accuracy and lower risk [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts in September [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll number is below 100,000, a rate cut in September is almost certain [4]. - The market's expectation for a September rate cut has decreased from 65% to 42% following the release of various economic indicators that fell within reasonable expectations [3]. Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the August non-farm payroll increase may only be 80,000, which would lower the three-month average to 35,000, significantly below the previous market estimate of 150,000 [5]. - Concerns about the reliability of employment data are raised, particularly due to the "birth-death model" used in non-farm statistics, which has an estimation bias of 12,000 [5]. - Recent economic indicators show a 0.4% increase in consumer spending and a narrowing decline in business investment to 0.2%, but the trend remains unstable [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that U.S. Treasury yields have collectively increased on August 25, with specific increases noted across various maturities [1][2]. Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 0.82 basis points to 3.715% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield increased by 1.12 basis points to 3.667% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield went up by 1.04 basis points to 3.780% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by 0.78 basis points to 4.269% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 0.41 basis points to 4.885% [1]

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - The global major asset performance from August 18 to August 22, 2025, showed a mixed trend, with US stocks experiencing volatility while other markets performed better[38] - The US stock market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices narrowed their declines amid tech stock volatility[38] Group 2: Commodity Markets - The gold market remains under pressure due to fluctuating investor sentiment and geopolitical risks, impacting demand and pricing[2] - The oil market is influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and global economic recovery signals, with inventory levels affecting price stability[2] Group 3: Bond Market - US Treasury yields are expected to slightly decline in the coming quarters, with current levels facing limited adjustment due to mixed economic signals[18] - The Chinese bond market saw an upward adjustment in yields across various maturities, driven by reduced liquidity expectations and a shift in market sentiment[19] Group 4: Currency Market - The US Dollar Index showed a downward trend, decreasing from 98.15 to 97.72, reflecting a 0.12% decline due to weak retail sales data and market expectations of interest rate cuts[23] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the medium to long term, influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and China's economic recovery signals[37]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collective decline in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities on August 22, with significant drops observed in short-term and long-term bonds [1][2]. Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 7.44 basis points to 3.707% [1]. - The 3-year Treasury yield fell by 8.10 basis points to 3.655% [1]. - The 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 7.18 basis points to 3.769% [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield declined by 5.45 basis points to 4.261% [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.75 basis points to 4.881% [1].