Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China is monitoring recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market and emphasizes that the country's foreign exchange reserves are managed with a focus on safety, liquidity, and value preservation, achieving effective diversification in investment portfolios [1] Group 1 - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market has been noted by the People's Bank of China [1] - China's foreign exchange reserves aim for safety, liquidity, and value appreciation [1] - The investment strategy follows market-oriented and professional principles, allowing for effective diversification [1] Group 2 - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited [1]

马来西亚央行：马来西亚4月15日的外汇储备为1184亿美元，3月28日为1175亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has initiated substantive trade negotiations with Japan, aiming to establish Japan as a model case for agreements with other countries following the recent tariff delay announcement [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan is the first country to engage in substantial trade negotiations with the U.S. after the tariff delay, indicating a strategic choice by the U.S. [1][2]. - The U.S. intends to use Japan as a template for future agreements with other nations, highlighting the importance of this negotiation [2]. Group 2: Potential U.S. Demands on Japan - The U.S. may push Japan to set explicit trade surplus targets, which could force Japan to reduce exports and increase imports, impacting its trade balance [3]. - Other potential demands include pushing for yen appreciation, which could harm Japanese export-oriented companies and hinder economic recovery [3]. - The U.S. might also request Japan to extend the maturity of its U.S. Treasury holdings, limiting Japan's foreign exchange reserve flexibility [3]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized the importance of not compromising too quickly for a deal, advocating for a careful approach to negotiations [4]. - The potential U.S. demands could significantly impact Japan's financial markets, with warnings of a rapid depreciation of the dollar and a substantial appreciation of the yen [4]. Group 4: Impact on Japanese Economy and Bond Market - A stronger yen could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese exports, adversely affecting manufacturing firms that rely heavily on exports [5]. - Increased fiscal spending, as suggested by the U.S., would require Japan to issue more government bonds, exacerbating supply pressures in the bond market [5]. - The Japanese long-term bond market is already showing signs of instability, with recent spikes in yields indicating market volatility [5]. Group 5: Global Market Implications - Nomura warns of a global bond market imbalance and tightening liquidity risks, which could lead to broader credit contractions [7]. - The recent fluctuations in global stock markets and the widening of high-yield bond spreads indicate ongoing credit tightening [7].

尽管印尼盾贬值，印尼外汇储备仍创历史新高 金十数据4月14日讯，在全球市场动荡重创印尼盾之际，印尼外汇储备上月增加26亿美元，再创历史新 高。印尼央行周一在一份声明中称，3月份外汇储备攀升至1571亿美元，税收和服务收入以及政府收回 外国贷款提振了外汇储备。从上个月开始，印尼还要求自然资源出口商必须将100%以美元计价的利润 留在国内至少一年。外汇储备的增加为货币当局提供了额外的支持，以捍卫今年受到多种因素严重打击 的印尼盾，包括特朗普的关税。上周，印尼盾兑美元汇率跌至有史以来最低水平，超过了1998年亚洲金 融危机时创下的低点。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信称，日本外汇储备的适当规模没有预设标准。我们持有外汇储备，以备需要时进 行外汇干预。 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restructuring of the global trading system, focusing on the implications of the U.S. dollar's strength and the possibility of a new international monetary framework, particularly in light of recent comments from President Trump regarding currency devaluation by trade partners [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar and Currency Valuation - The U.S. dollar is considered overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency, which imposes costs on U.S. manufacturers and exporters [2][5]. - President Trump has criticized the devaluation of currencies like the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, asserting that such actions create an unfair disadvantage for the U.S. [2][5]. - The actual exchange rate of the dollar has strengthened, with the International Bank for Settlements indicating that the dollar's real exchange rate is at a high level compared to the pre-Plaza Accord period [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to induce a depreciation of the dollar through coordinated intervention by major economies [5][6]. - The scale of the foreign exchange market has significantly increased since the Plaza Accord, complicating any potential coordinated intervention today [6][7]. - The historical context highlights that the intervention during the Plaza Accord involved approximately $10 billion, while recent interventions, such as Japan's, have reached much higher amounts, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Implications - Achieving a new agreement similar to the Plaza Accord would require participation from emerging economies, which presents significant challenges compared to the past [6][7]. - There is speculation that Trump may push for a weaker dollar through tariffs, which could lead to increased pressure on countries like Japan to adjust their monetary policies [7]. - The potential for a new monetary agreement, referred to as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," remains uncertain, but if realized, it could have profound implications for the foreign exchange market and the global economy [1][7].

国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模为32272亿美元，较1月末上升 182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。 中国央行连续第四个月增持黄金，环比增长0.22%。2月外汇储备规模上升。 3月7日周五，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 中国2月末黄金储备7361万盎司，1月末黄金储备为7345 万盎司，环比增长了0.22%。 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年2月，受主要经济体宏观政策和经济数据、主要央行货币政策预期等因素 影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外 汇储备规模上升。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 中信建投 此前表示，短期来看，关税明朗之前，黄金期现溢价波动或难完全平稳，跨市套利行或仍对 金价有支撑；中期来看，助推2024年金价的需求因素（央行购金持续强劲，亚洲私人部门黄金投资需求 扩容）在2025年持续性减弱，故2025年金价或从顺风期走向震荡期。 高盛 认为，通胀担忧和财政风险 ...