沪铜日评20250725:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量初现下降 | | 变量名称 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-16 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 79890 | 06866 | 77980 | 300.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 161652 | 85686 | 60926 | -11,767.00 - | | | | 持仓量(手) | 181496 | 172895 | 160457 | 8, 601. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 16183 | 15535 | 50242 | 648.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 79795 | 79790 | 78060 | 5.00 - | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 (现货与期货) | 沪铜县差 | -95 | 200 | 80 | -295.00 --- | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -10 | -10 | 60 ...

Group 1 - The Zhongjin Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index (930851) has shown a strong increase of 1.04% as of July 25, 2025, with constituent stocks such as Tuolisi (300229) rising by 5.48%, Wanda Information (300168) by 4.96%, and Wanxing Technology (300624) by 4.17% [1] - The Big Data ETF (159739) has increased by 0.98%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.24 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongjin Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, as of June 30, 2025, account for a total of 51.84% of the index, including companies like iFlytek (002230) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [3] Group 2 - CICC's research report suggests that stablecoins have the potential to become a new type of infrastructure, analyzing the incentive compatibility mechanisms of various participants and exploring the potential impact of stablecoins on financial markets and the international monetary system [2] - The report emphasizes that the emergence phase of infrastructure presents significant development opportunities, with the issuance of offshore RMB stablecoins being a priority for China's participation in stablecoin development [2] - The Big Data ETF closely tracks the Zhongjin Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, which selects 50 listed companies involved in cloud computing services, big data services, and related hardware to reflect the overall performance of these sectors [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for Lianlian Digital Company Overview - Lianlian Digital holds comprehensive payment licenses covering the US, Europe, and China, maintaining good relationships with regulatory bodies. It is the only Chinese company to obtain the VATP license and focuses on cross-border payments among the 11 holders of the VTB license in Hong Kong [2][4]. Core Industry Insights - Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping the global cross-border payment landscape, with the US accelerating stablecoin legislation and China aiming to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi through stablecoins. The global penetration rate of stablecoins is expected to rise quickly [2][5][6]. - Four key catalysts are identified to drive the development of stablecoins: 1. The implementation of the US Genius Act 2. The introduction of the stablecoin legislation in Hong Kong 3. The increasing demand for stablecoins due to the growth of Real World Assets (RWA) 4. Lianlian Digital's potential entry into the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2][7]. Financial Performance and Projections - Lianlian Digital's stock price has increased by 77%, reflecting only part of the market expectations. The stock is expected to see a rebound if it enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect, attracting additional capital [2][8]. - Revenue projections indicate that without contributions from Web3, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2027 will exceed 30%. Profit acceleration is anticipated in 2026-2027. Including Web3 contributions could push revenue growth above 50%, with gross margins increasing to 80%-90% [2][9]. Market Valuation - Based on a 10x valuation for the next year, Lianlian Digital's market capitalization could reach HKD 23.6 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 21.85, indicating a potential growth of 75% [2][9]. Risk Factors - Investors should be aware of several risk factors that could impact company performance and market outlook: 1. The potential delay or underperformance of US and Hong Kong legislation and license issuance 2. The slower-than-expected penetration of stablecoins in the cross-border payment sector 3. Possible tightening of policies regarding stablecoins in both the US and China [3][10]. Competitive Advantages - Lianlian Digital's core competitiveness in cross-border payments includes being one of the three major cross-border payment service providers in China, with 70% of its revenue derived from this sector. It possesses the most comprehensive traditional payment and clearing licenses and has strong relationships with regulatory authorities in the US and Europe [4].

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins have the potential to become a new type of financial infrastructure, bridging the gap between the crypto world and traditional finance, and their development should be strategically considered by China [2][3]. Group 1: What are Stablecoins? - Stablecoins are defined as "the most decentralized among centralized assets and the most centralized among decentralized assets," highlighting their dual nature of being rooted in blockchain technology while also requiring regulatory oversight [3][7]. - They are linked to fiat currencies, which means they must comply with traditional financial regulations, thus acting as a bridge between the crypto and real worlds [3][8]. - The potential applications of stablecoins include cross-border payments, asset preservation, and integration into decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems [3][22]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins can enhance payment efficiency, offering low-cost and fast transactions, particularly beneficial for cross-border payments [38]. - They can improve financial inclusivity, especially in high-inflation economies, by providing a means for asset preservation [41][42]. - However, stablecoins may pose risks to monetary stability and sovereignty in countries with weak financial systems, potentially undermining local currencies and monetary policies [45][46]. Group 3: Influence on International Monetary System - Stablecoins depend on the credit of fiat currencies, primarily the US dollar, and their rise could reshape global capital flows and the international monetary system [54][56]. - They may create new demand in regions with weak financial infrastructure, acting as a substitute for traditional banking systems [55]. - The emergence of stablecoins could challenge the dominance of the US dollar, as they provide alternative payment channels and may facilitate the rise of non-US currencies [56]. Group 4: China's Participation in Stablecoin Development - China should consider issuing offshore RMB stablecoins as a priority to participate in the development of stablecoins, leveraging its position as a major global trade player [5][57]. - The development of stablecoins could enhance China's financial resilience and flexibility in international trade, providing alternatives to traditional payment methods [57]. - However, the potential for stablecoins to bypass capital controls poses significant regulatory challenges for China [4][57].

近日，美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简称《天 才法案》），标志着美国首次正式确立稳定币监管框架。与此同时，香港也在加快监管落 地。8月1日，《稳定币条例》将正式生效。 有数据显示，自2023年以来，稳定币的种类已经拥有170多种，全球稳定币的总市值已达到 约2550亿美元。 在这场变革中，专家如何看待稳定币的实际价值？稳定币是否具备进入主流社会生活的可 能？ 在与新浪金融研究院对谈时，上海新金融研究院副院长、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院兼 聘教授刘晓春指出，稳定币说到底是代表"钱"的一种工具。加密资产交易之所以能越做越 大，很大程度上是因为有了锚定法币的稳定币的介入。立法之后，会在稳定币领域划出一条 清晰的界线：哪些属于合规范畴，哪些明确不被允许。 他指出，技术的价值不光体现在"能不能用"，还体现在"能不能被规范地用"。稳定币未来应 用可能是更多的还是在链上支付，或者说在一些特殊场景内的支付。 稳定币并非终点，而是数字金融的一块拼图 新浪金融研究院：8月1日香港稳定币条例就要生效了，一些机构人士觉得港府跟进得非常迅 速且坚决，您怎么看待香港的速度？ 刘晓春：我认为这反映了香 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, with the CSI 300 also increasing by 0.7%, the STAR Market 50 up by 1.2%, the CSI 1000 up by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.5% on Thursday [5][6] - The best-performing sectors included beauty care (+3.1%), non-ferrous metals (+2.8%), steel (+2.7%), retail (+2.6%), and non-bank financials (+2.1%), while the worst performers were banks (-1.4%), telecommunications (-0.2%), utilities (-0.1%), oil and petrochemicals (0.0%), and home appliances (+0.1%) [5][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.8447 trillion yuan, with net inflows of 3.72 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][6] Key Recommendations Company: Guoquan (02517) - Guoquan is the largest in-home meal brand in China with 10,150 stores as of 2024, driven by a high-density store model and standardized supply [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 21.5% from 2020 to 2024, with over 51% of its stores located in lower-tier cities [7][8] - The penetration rate of prepared foods is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7%, reaching 15.0% by 2028, enhancing single-store revenue potential [7][8] Company: Lianlian Digital (02598) - Lianlian Digital is a leading global cross-border payment service provider with a focus on Web3 and the only company to obtain a VATP license [10][11] - The company is expected to see a revenue CAGR exceeding 30% from 2024 to 2027, with potential for growth to over 50% due to Web3 developments [10][11] - The current price corresponds to a PS ratio of 7.7x for this year, decreasing to 5.7x by 2026, with global stablecoin-related valuations ranging from 10-15x [10][11] Company: Jack Sewing Machine (603337) - Jack Sewing Machine is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the sewing equipment industry and the shift of the textile industry to Southeast Asia [12][13] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7,113 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 16.73%, and a net profit of 1,080 million yuan [12][13] - The introduction of humanoid robots in the garment manufacturing sector could create a market space exceeding 600 billion yuan [12][13] Important Commentary Company: Hanyi Co., Ltd. (301270) - Hanyi Co., Ltd. announced the acquisition of a 39% stake in Shanghai Pidong for 67.3 million yuan, with an overall valuation of 262 million yuan [15] - This acquisition marks a strategic shift from a tool software provider to a cultural consumption ecosystem platform [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the surge in interest surrounding stablecoins in Hong Kong, particularly with the upcoming implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" on August 1 [1][6] - The company Jingwei Tiandi announced its entry into the crypto payment sector with the launch of its stablecoin payment platform "Fopay," which has led to a significant increase in its stock price, rising over 18% on July 22 and continuing to rise by 4% on July 23 [1][2] - Since its listing in January 2024, Jingwei Tiandi's stock price has increased by over 400%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2] Group 2 - "Fopay" is a one-stop payment platform based on stablecoin technology, offering services such as stablecoin custody and prepaid card payments through licensed partners, marking Jingwei Tiandi's formal entry into the multi-trillion-dollar crypto payment market [2][3] - The stock price of Jingwei Tiandi experienced a dramatic increase of 87.46% on January 7 following the announcement of a significant share sale to a group of influential investors, which included notable figures from various sectors [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has indicated that it will only issue a limited number of licenses for stablecoin issuers, with several institutions expressing interest in applying for these licenses, reflecting a cautious but optimistic regulatory approach [6]

Core Viewpoint - The third-party payment platform Kuaiqian has been acquired by China Ruyi for 240 million yuan, marking its entry into the fintech sector after a series of strategic acquisitions in the entertainment industry [2][3][11]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Ruyi announced the acquisition of a 30% stake in Kuaiqian Financial Services for 240 million yuan, with the payment structured in three installments [3][11]. - The seller, Wanda Group, previously acquired a controlling stake in Kuaiqian for 315 million USD in 2014, holding 30% post-acquisition [3][11]. - Kuaiqian has been operating independently under Wanda's ownership, with limited management involvement from Wanda in recent years [4][11]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move for China Ruyi to diversify into the fintech sector, leveraging its existing entertainment and content ecosystem [5][11]. - China Ruyi aims to enhance its platform capabilities by integrating payment solutions into its various business lines, including gaming and cinema [7][11]. - The company has a significant user base, with over 500 million users across its platforms, which could provide substantial growth opportunities for Kuaiqian [7][11]. Group 3: Future Collaboration - China Ruyi plans to maintain Kuaiqian's independent operations while participating in major decisions, including board appointments and strategic direction [7][11]. - There is potential for developing payment products tailored to entertainment scenarios, such as cinema payments and membership wallet solutions [7][11]. - Kuaiqian has initiated overseas expansion efforts, and the partnership with China Ruyi may accelerate these initiatives by providing additional resources [7][11]. Group 4: Market Context - The third-party payment license has become increasingly valuable, with multiple acquisitions in the sector, highlighting the competitive landscape [3][11]. - Kuaiqian, as one of the earliest licensed payment institutions in China, has established a foothold in various sectors, including insurance and finance [6][11]. - The acquisition aligns with regulatory encouragement for compliant and resourceful institutions to participate in the payment industry [5][11].

Group 1: Company Highlights - Vailizhibo-B (HK09887) listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 25, with a significant dark market performance, reaching a peak of HKD 82.00, up over 134% from the IPO price of HKD 35.00, closing at HKD 69.75, a 99.29% increase [1] - SenseTime (HK00020) announced a placement to raise approximately HKD 2.5 billion by issuing about 1.667 billion Class B subscription shares at a subscription price of HKD 1.50, a discount of about 6.25% from the last closing price of HKD 1.64 [2] - Juzi Technology submitted a new prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a second time, focusing on the baby electronic products sector, with projected sales of nearly 1.4 million baby monitors in FY2024, marking a historical high [3] - Zhonghui Biotechnology-B submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on innovative vaccines, with core products including a quadrivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine and a rabies vaccine under development [4] Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,667.18, with a gain of 0.51% on July 24 [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index stood at 5,743.00, experiencing a slight decline of 0.05% [5] - The National Enterprises Index reached 9,257.62, with an increase of 0.18% [5]

Group 1 - The global financial market is increasingly focused on digital assets, with significant growth in investment demand for crypto assets, particularly driven by the ongoing trend of stablecoins [1] - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" will officially take effect on August 1, providing a clear legal framework and regulatory guidance for the stablecoin market [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges are accelerating the expansion of virtual currency ETF products in response to the growing demand for these assets [1][2] Group 2 - Aird Financial has positioned itself as a key player in connecting traditional finance with the digital future, becoming one of the few brokers in Hong Kong to participate in all listed virtual asset spot ETFs [2][5] - As of now, there are seven virtual asset spot ETFs listed in Hong Kong, all of which can be traded through Aird Financial's flagship trading app, Eddid ONE [2] - These ETFs retain the growth potential of digital assets while being subject to strict regulation by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, significantly reducing funding risks for investors [2] Group 3 - Aird Financial holds a full license and has a significant first-mover advantage in the digital asset investment wave, having obtained all necessary regulatory licenses for various financial activities [5] - The company has a deep understanding of the industry and has made long-term investments, allowing it to exceed the capabilities of ordinary institutions in areas such as digital asset custody and settlement [5] - Aird Financial has been approved to provide digital asset deposit services, covering multiple cryptocurrencies, thus becoming a key infrastructure connecting investors with traditional financial markets [5][6] Group 4 - With the countdown to the implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation," Aird Financial's business layout is expected to accelerate, focusing on providing professional market-making services for mainstream stablecoins and other digital assets [6] - The company aims to expand its distribution of stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets (RWA), establishing itself as a benchmark in the Hong Kong digital asset market [6] - Aird Financial's innovative capabilities, empowered by technology, and its licensed compliance will contribute to building a more mature and vibrant stablecoin ecosystem in Hong Kong [6]