Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.12%, gaining 31 points to close at 26,576 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.62% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 179 billion [1] Group 2: Notable Stock Movements - Gaming stocks saw significant gains, with August Macau gaming revenue slightly exceeding expectations, and strong demand anticipated for the upcoming National Day holiday. Wynn Macau rose by 5.41%, Melco International Development increased by 5.85%, and Sands China gained 5% [1] - Weimob Group surged over 10% as the company plans to raise over HKD 1.5 billion through a share placement, with Wujie Capital becoming the largest single shareholder [1] - Ganfeng Lithium rose over 10%, stating that its energy storage cell production capacity is currently at full capacity [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable increased over 12%, reaching a new high, driven by market enthusiasm for hollow-core fiber, although the related business has not yet significantly impacted financial data [1] - Hongteng Precision surged over 16% after announcing plans to build an electric vehicle charging station factory in Saudi Arabia, with accelerated AI product layout [1] - China Rare Earth Holdings rose nearly 9% as the Mt Bundy project reported increased reserves, and the company plans to spin off its rare earth gold business for a Hong Kong listing [1] - Stablecoin-related stocks mostly rose, as Hong Kong implements a stablecoin issuer system, potentially benefiting third-party payment institutions. Duodian Smart rose by 4%, Yaocai Securities Financial increased by 5.85%, and OSL Group gained 5% [1] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Haijia Medical rose over 6% after founder Zhu Yiwen increased his stake by purchasing 1.6648 million shares [2] - SenseTime-W increased over 3% as Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for the company's ToC business expansion, driven by generative AI innovations [3] - Musk denied rumors of Tesla receiving an order for 10,000 robots, leading to a decline of over 7% in Sanhua Intelligent Controls [4] - Fortior fell nearly 5% as shareholder Shanghai Huaxin plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and its potential to increase its share in global reserves, currently at 2%, by leveraging China's economic growth and expanding foreign investment opportunities in RMB-denominated assets [3][9]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - Since 2009, China's efforts to internationalize the RMB have shown limited progress, with its international usage still less than half that of the British pound and significantly lower than the US dollar [4]. - China's GDP share in global GDP has increased from 6% in 2000 to 19% in 2023, highlighting its growing economic influence [3]. - The RMB's internationalization could be accelerated by emerging market central banks diversifying their assets, especially in the context of geopolitical changes post-2022 [4]. Group 2: Determinants of Reserve Currency Status - Key factors influencing the choice of reserve currency include inertia, economic size, financial market depth, currency credibility, and increasingly, geopolitical considerations [5]. - A panel regression model from 1986 to 2022 reveals that reserve currency status exhibits strong inertia, with adjustments to reserve composition being slow and minimal in the short term [6]. - Economic size is identified as the most significant determinant of reserve currency share, with potential critical points where further GDP increases could lead to disproportionate growth in reserve share [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Insights on Currency Dominance - Historical transitions of currency dominance, such as the shift from the pound to the dollar, illustrate that becoming a dominant currency is a lengthy process, often taking decades [8]. - The policies and actions of both the challenger and the incumbent currency significantly impact the international use of currencies [8]. - Major economic downturns can hinder the internationalization process of a currency, as seen in past instances with the dollar and other currencies [8]. Group 4: Unique Aspects of RMB Internationalization - China's approach to RMB internationalization may focus on expanding the offshore market (CNH) while keeping the onshore market (CNY) relatively stable [10]. - The RMB's internationalization is expected to play a more significant role in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly towards Belt and Road Initiative countries [11]. - The development of a cross-border payment system (CIPS) and RMB-denominated commodity trading is part of China's strategy to enhance the RMB's global standing [12]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - The growing manufacturing strength of China and geopolitical changes present new opportunities for RMB internationalization, but challenges remain in balancing market stability with foreign investor demands [13]. - The rise of stablecoins and financial innovations poses regulatory challenges, necessitating urgent strategies from Chinese authorities to address potential risks and ensure effective oversight [13].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance around 27,200 points, with a projected P/E ratio of approximately 13 times over the next 12 months, as the market reacts positively to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - The market remains active with a risk appetite that is relatively positive, as capital rotates among different sectors [1] Short-term Sector Outlook - The focus is on the US jobless claims and the Bank of England's interest rate decision, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a potential for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with the latest cut being a risk management decision [2][7] Corporate News - Zijin Mining is reportedly set to launch an IPO in Hong Kong, while Alibaba's AI chip development is noted to be competitive with Nvidia's offerings [3] - HSBC is rumored to be seeking to sell a real estate mortgage loan portfolio valued at 7.8 billion [3] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 0.25% aligns with market expectations, with projections for two additional cuts by year-end [3][7] - The unemployment rate in China for youth aged 16-24 has risen to 18.9%, marking a new high [8] Industry Developments - The Chinese government is pushing for leading companies to accelerate the development of self-controlled secure chips, indicating a shift towards risk-driven cybersecurity needs [7] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand service consumption and introduce high-quality development measures for the accommodation industry [8] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,908 points, up 1.78%, with a significant increase in trading volume to 360.3 billion [5] - The performance of various indices shows a year-to-date increase of 34.14% for the Hang Seng Index and 41.77% for the Hang Seng Tech Index [4] Regulatory Changes - The Chinese government has instructed major tech companies to halt purchases of Nvidia AI chips, indicating a focus on domestic chip production capabilities [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on mandatory safety standards for intelligent connected vehicles [7]

Core Insights - A "stablecoin bidding war" is taking place on the rapidly growing trading platform Hyperliquid, which may shape the future of the cryptocurrency industry and determine who will dominate this phase [1] - The core prize of this competition is the right to issue USDH, a new token pegged to the US dollar, native to the Hyperliquid network [1] - Key players in the bidding include major institutions in the crypto payment sector such as Paxos, Agora, Ethena, and the lesser-known startup Native Markets, which has partnered with Stripe's stablecoin division, Bridge [1] - The competition is not just about prestige but also about economic survival, as stablecoin issuers can earn interest income from the assets backing these tokens [1] - For instance, Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, shares interest income with Coinbase through a partnership that helps both companies mitigate market volatility [1] - With market expectations of interest rate declines this week, the urgency to expand market share has intensified [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is reaching new highs ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the ChiNext Index showing a significant increase of over 70% since April 7, outperforming global markets [1]. Market Performance - The ChiNext Index continues to hit new highs, driven by strong performances from individual stocks, particularly from "Ning Wang," which saw an intraday increase of 8% with trading volume exceeding 20 billion [3]. - The semiconductor sector is gaining attention, led by SMIC reaching new highs, as news of testing domestic lithography machines ignites investor interest [3]. - The overall market volume remains robust at 2.4 trillion, with a slight increase of 359 billion compared to the previous day, despite some fluctuations during the trading session [3]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - A 25 basis point rate cut is highly anticipated, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is low. The market is closely watching the dot plot for insights into the Fed's internal stance [5][6]. - The recent appointment of three Fed governors nominated by Trump may influence the voting dynamics within the Fed, making a 50 basis point cut less likely [5]. - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision and Chairman Powell's press conference will be crucial, as he aims to communicate effectively to avoid excessive market volatility [5][6]. Impact on A-shares - The ChiNext Index rose by 2%, with the MACD diff value reaching 152.2, indicating a breakout from previous stagnation levels [12]. - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index will be critical in determining the sustainability of the current upward trend in the market [12]. - The technology sector remains the focal point of market activity, with strong liquidity supporting a localized bull market as long as trading volume stays above 2 trillion [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of stablecoins in the digital finance landscape, highlighting their advantages over traditional cryptocurrencies due to their price stability and regulatory compliance, which makes them increasingly integrated into the mainstream financial system [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Current Status and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are digital assets based on blockchain technology that maintain price stability through a "anchoring mechanism" to fiat currencies. They have evolved from being used primarily in cryptocurrency exchanges to being integral in decentralized finance (DeFi) activities such as lending and staking, as well as in cross-border payments and trade settlements due to their fast settlement speeds and low transaction costs [5][6]. Development History of Stablecoins - The development of stablecoins has transitioned from exploration to regulation. The launch of USDT in 2014 marked the introduction of fiat-collateralized stablecoins, which quickly gained traction. The introduction of DAI in 2017 pioneered decentralized stablecoins. The demand for stablecoins surged during the DeFi boom in 2020, but the collapse of algorithmic stablecoin UST in 2022 raised regulatory concerns. Recent regulations, such as the U.S. GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, have laid a foundation for compliant development [6][7]. Market Characteristics - The stablecoin market is characterized by concentration, with the total market cap exceeding $280 billion as of August 2025, where USDT holds about 60% market share. The majority of stablecoin transactions occur on major public blockchains like Ethereum, Tron, and Solana, with Ethereum alone accounting for over $137 billion in stablecoin market cap [7]. Technical Principles of Stablecoins - The stability and security of stablecoins rely on blockchain and smart contract technologies. They can be categorized into three types based on their anchoring mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins. Each type has distinct technical implementations, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins like USDT and USDC relying on off-chain reserves, while crypto-collateralized stablecoins like DAI use over-collateralization and automated liquidation mechanisms [10][11]. Trust Logic of Stablecoins - The core competitive advantage of stablecoins lies in trust, which is built on reliable anchoring and reserve mechanisms, verifiable technology, and regulatory frameworks. The trust in fiat-collateralized stablecoins is derived from the transparency and liquidity of their reserves, while crypto-collateralized stablecoins depend on over-collateralization and automated liquidation for stability. Algorithmic stablecoins face structural challenges due to their reliance on supply-demand algorithms without actual asset backing [15][16]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Stablecoins face challenges in regulatory technology, price stability, and governance. The lack of a global regulatory framework for stablecoins and blockchain transactions complicates compliance. Additionally, past incidents of reserve opacity have led to market instability. However, the future of stablecoins looks promising, with potential growth in cross-border payments and tokenization of real-world assets, supported by evolving regulatory environments and technological innovations [17][18][19].

资金方面，该行认为板块在低利率环境下将跟随整体市场流动性，且有更高弹性(Beta)，因主动型基金 的相关配置比重极低。主题投资如AI应用、科技本土化和稳定币等，可能对股价产生显著影响，但目 前该行尚未发现到可以真正扭转行业基本面的主题。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，就内地软件行业基本面而言，该行仍保持谨慎态度，因预 期内地GDP增长将放缓，且通缩压力依然存在，企业对IT投资的信心仍较低，相信要待通缩结束后1至2 年才会恢复。在需求出现实质转折前，任何供应端推动的新技术趋势，都只能够促使现有的预算在市场 中重新分配。 股份方面，该行强烈建议H股多于A股;行业首选为北森控股(09669)，目标价10.3港元，评级"增持"，预 期收入将加速增长;其次为金蝶国际(00268)、中国软件国际(00354)及金山软件(03888)，目标价分别为 14.2港元、6.6港元(原本5.4港元)及38港元，均予"与大市同步"评级。 ...

股份方面，该行强烈建议H股多于A股;行业首选为北森控股(09669)，目标价10.3港元，评级"增持"，预 期收入将加速增长;其次为金蝶国际(00268)、中国软件国际(00354)及金山软件(03888)，目标价分别为 14.2港元、6.6港元(原本5.4港元)及38港元，均予"与大市同步"评级。 资金方面，该行认为板块在低利率环境下将跟随整体市场流动性，且有更高弹性(Beta)，因主动型基金 的相关配置比重极低。主题投资如AI应用、科技本土化和稳定币等，可能对股价产生显著影响，但目 前该行尚未发现到可以真正扭转行业基本面的主题。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，就内地软件行业基本面而言，该行仍保持谨慎态度，因预期内地GDP增长将放 缓，且通缩压力依然存在，企业对IT投资的信心仍较低，相信要待通缩结束后1至2年才会恢复。在需求 出现实质转折前，任何供应端推动的新技术趋势，都只能够促使现有的预算在市场中重新分配。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 95% expectation for this outcome, as employment data shows signs of cooling and core inflation is declining [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The total issuance of major stablecoins USDT and USDC has increased by nearly 3% week-on-week, indicating a rise in demand for stablecoin wallets [3]. - Active addresses for stablecoins have risen for four consecutive days, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite as funds flow from centralized exchanges to decentralized wallets [3][8]. - Recent data shows a 28% increase in newly bound wallet addresses on the XBIT Wallet platform over the past 72 hours, with stablecoin asset inflows up by 35% compared to the previous week [8]. Group 2: Decentralized Wallets - XBIT Wallet emphasizes the importance of private key security for investors during periods of rising liquidity, with a design that allows users to generate and hold their private keys locally [5]. - The wallet's mnemonic phrase, generated during wallet creation, serves as the only proof of control over on-chain assets, highlighting the need for secure storage practices [5][6]. - The platform offers features for easy mnemonic import and multi-device recovery, stressing the necessity of performing these actions in isolated network environments to prevent phishing attacks [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the demand for stablecoin wallets is not only a response to anticipated Fed rate cuts but also indicates an upcoming increase in on-chain economic activity [8]. - Historical data shows that during each Fed easing cycle, both stablecoin issuance and the number of new wallet addresses tend to rise simultaneously, suggesting a potential new expansion phase for on-chain funds [8]. - The shift towards decentralized wallets is seen as a critical infrastructure for supporting on-chain economic activities, with increasing investor demands for security and asset control [8].

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，就内地软件行业基本面而言，该行仍保持谨慎态度。在需求出现实质转折 前，任何供应端推动的新技术趋势，都只能够促使现有的预算在市场中重新分配。资金方面，该行认为 板块在低利率环境下将跟随整体市场流动性，且有更高弹性(Beta)，因主动型基金的相关配置比重极 低。主题投资如AI应用、科技本土化和稳定币等，可能对股价产生显著影响，但目前该行尚未发现到 可以真正扭转行业基本面的主题。 股份方面，该行强烈建议H股多于A股；行业首选为北森控股，目标价10.3港元，评级"增持"，预期收 入将加速增长；其次为金蝶国际、中国软件国际及金山软件，目标价分别为14.2港元、6.6港元及38港 元，均予"与大市同步"评级。 ...