2025 年 09 月 21 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 长假临近，震荡分化延续 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《颠簸初现，成长风格人气仍高 —策 略周报》2025-09-07 2、《A 股 8 月强势收官，9 月有哪些变 数？ —策略周报》2025-08-31 3、《沪指强势反弹，周期成长轮动 —策 略周报》2025-08-10 4、《沪指表现强势，风格再迎轮动？ — 策略周报》2025-07-27 5、《沪指站上 3500，如何应对？ —策 略周报》2025-07-13 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】债市或延续区间震荡，关注信用债票息收入。当前债市并未出 现实质性利空，经济数据连续回落并未形成有效利好，反映市场情绪依然偏 弱，收益率下行空间尚未打开。债市短期大概率维持震荡走势。10 年期国债 收益率或仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has increased liquidity injections into the market to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos, 1,500 million yuan in treasury cash deposits, and 6,000 million yuan in buyout reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 11,923 million yuan [1] - Next week, there will be 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities of 2,800 million yuan, 2,870 million yuan, 4,185 million yuan, 4,870 million yuan, and 3,543 million yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - Additionally, 3,000 million yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature on Thursday, September 25 [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Industry insiders suggest that the central bank's recent actions to increase liquidity will help maintain a stable financial environment and reinforce the foundation for economic recovery [1] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the market, with a possibility of increasing MLF operations this month and the potential resumption of government bond trading [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that government bonds are a key tool for coordinating monetary and fiscal policies, and increasing the issuance of government bonds is essential under a more proactive fiscal policy [1] - The central bank should enhance open market operations involving government bonds to provide positive guidance to financial institutions and markets [1] - Government bond transactions reflect the central bank's active cooperation with fiscal policy and indicate the characteristics and focus of monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - Government bond yields are determined by competitive behaviors among market participants, reflecting the supply and demand conditions in the bond market and influencing future trading decisions [2] - The active trading of government bonds and the yield curve significantly impact future bond issuance and the pricing trends in various financial markets, making government bonds a crucial tool for policy coordination [2] - It is recommended to improve the regulatory framework for government bond trading to mitigate risks, especially in the context of international financial risks affecting the domestic bond market [2]

分析人士认为，国债持续下跌可能与两大原因有关： 国债市场迎来大抛盘！ 9月10日午后，银行间主要利率债收益率午后加速上行，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。30年期国 债收益率上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%，创3月24日以来新低。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，与今天发布的通胀数据有关。8月PPI同比下降2.9%，为今年3月份以来首次收窄；另一方 面，可能与权益市场持续向好存在关系。 数据显示，截至2024年末，中国国债市场规模为12.4万亿元（年度发行量），托管余额未直接披露但可推算约占债券市场总托管余额177万亿 元的7%。那么，国债在当前格局之下，究竟会如何演绎？ 国债加速下跌 9月10日，国债迎来一轮下跌。午后，国债期货跌幅持续扩大，30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%报114.81元，创3月24日以来新低。银行间30年 期国债收益率上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。10年期国债活跃券收益率亦于午后加速上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。 第一，今天公布的通胀数据。8月PPI同比下降 ...

国债市场迎来大抛盘！ 9月10日午后，银行间主要利率债收益率午后加速上行，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。30年期国债收益率 上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%，创3月24日以来新低。 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，一方面，与今天发布的通胀数据有关。8月PPI同比下降2.9%，为今年3月份以来首次收窄；另一方面，可能 与权益市场持续向好存在关系。 数据显示，截至2024年末，中国国债市场规模为12.4万亿元（年度发行量），托管余额未直接披露但可推算约占债券市场总托管余额177万亿元的 7%。那么，国债在当前格局之下，究竟会如何演绎？ 国债加速下跌 9月10日，国债迎来一轮下跌。午后，国债期货跌幅持续扩大，30年期主力合约一度大跌0.82%报114.81元，创3月24日以来新低。银行间30年期国债收 益率上行逾2BP，创该债券上市以来新高。10年期国债活跃券收益率亦于午后加速上行1.5BP报1.81%，时隔五个月重回1.8%上方。 国泰君安期货认为，市场情绪受政策预期、流动性及宏观经济数据边际变化影响较大，当前宏观数据预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to soon resume government bond trading operations to stabilize bond prices and enhance the flexibility of monetary policy tools [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Conditions and Expectations - The recent meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC has heightened expectations for the resumption of government bond trading operations [1] - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's potential resumption of bond trading is influenced by the recent pressure on bond prices and the need to prevent market turmoil similar to that seen in late 2022 [1][3] - The current tightening of the funding environment, coupled with a peak in government bond issuance, is a significant consideration for the PBOC's decision to restart bond trading [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC's previous bond trading operations, which began in August of last year, effectively maintained a reasonable yield curve and stabilized market interest rates [2] - Following a pause in bond trading operations in January, the PBOC utilized reverse repos to supplement medium- and long-term funding needs, indicating a shift in monetary policy tools [5][6] - The PBOC is expected to combine various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond trading, to ensure liquidity in the financial market [5][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Recent trends show that institutional investors are buying short-term government bonds in anticipation of the PBOC's resumption of trading, which has reduced downward pressure on bond prices [4] - Large state-owned banks have reportedly accumulated significant amounts of short-term government bonds to meet the anticipated demand following the resumption of trading [7]

Report Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate as it awaits further confirmation of monetary policy. Subsequently, it is expected to break through the downward space and approach the low point. Although the liquidity in July may remain relatively loose, from the perspective of coordinating fiscal policies and managing market expectations, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur during this window period. The amplitude and rhythm of the curve opening up space require reasonable assessment [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Suppression, Bond Market First Weak then Strong, Curve Slightly Steepened - This week (June 23 - June 27), the cross - quarter and the stock - bond "seesaw" were the main factors influencing the bond market. The stock market's strength in the first half of the week suppressed the bond market, but the central bank's increased liquidity injection and insurance replenishment provided some support. In the second half of the week, the bond market recovered as the stock - bond linkage effect weakened and the stock market declined, along with uncertain industrial enterprise profit data [1][8]. - On a daily basis, the bond market showed different trends each day. By June 27, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds changed by - 1, + 0.4, + 0.7, and + 1.2 BP respectively compared to June 20, and the curve steepened slightly. Most yields of major - term certificates of deposit (CDs) increased [8]. 2. Cross - quarter Overall Secure, Bank Liability - side Pressure Controllable - This week, the overall funding situation was stable, with increased fluctuations approaching the quarter - end. The 7 - day funding rate rose significantly, and the government bond issuance scale was large in the first half of the week. However, the central bank's intention to support was obvious, with reverse repurchase injections exceeding 2 trillion yuan. CD issuance rates fluctuated slightly, and large - bank lending remained stable around 4 trillion yuan, indicating that cross - quarter funds were generally secure and bank liability - side pressure was relatively controllable [2][13]. - The 7 - day funding rate center increased, and the DR001 still ran below the policy rate. As of June 27, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 changed by - 0.53 and + 0.58 respectively compared to the previous week, while those of DR007 and R007 changed by + 12.75 and + 24.03 BP respectively. The phenomenon of funding stratification became more prominent, and the funding pressure on non - bank institutions increased during the cross - quarter period [13]. 3. The "Actions" and "Inactions" of Central Bank Monetary Policy - In June, market discussions about whether the central bank would restart treasury bond trading intensified. Since June, large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds (especially 1 - 3Y) increased year - on - year and month - on - month, which made the market more likely to associate this with the restart of treasury bond trading operations [19]. - The central bank suspended treasury bond purchases in 2025 mainly due to the improvement of the government bond supply - demand relationship and to avoid creating strong market expectations. After the market adjustment in the first quarter, an expert view in the Financial Times on April 13 suggested that the central bank might buy new treasury bonds in the secondary market if the interest - rate increase pressure from expansionary fiscal policies weakened policy effectiveness [3][25]. - In the first half of 2025, the bond market's funding situation was volatile. Monetary policy showed more characteristics of dynamic equilibrium and contingency decision - making among multiple goals. The central bank's shift from "restraint" to "support" in liquidity injection corresponded to the change in policy goal priority from "risk prevention" to "stable growth" [4][29]. - Currently, the central bank's "inactions" may include: improved flexibility and precision in liquidity regulation in 2025, with June smoothly passing multiple liquidity tests; large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds may not directly equal the central bank's purchases; the central bank is still concerned about bond market interest - rate risks; and the government bond supply pressure decreased in June, with the next peak likely in August - September. Therefore, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur in July, and the market may fluctuate in the short term [30][35]. 4. Next Week's Focus - June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI for June, Eurozone's M1/M2/M3 for May, Germany's CPI for June. - July 1: Eurozone's CPI for June, US ISM manufacturing PMI for June. - July 2: US ADP employment for June. - July 3: US non - farm payrolls for June, US ISM non - manufacturing PMI for June. - July 4: EU PPI for May [38][39].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing over 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1] - The PBOC also lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which has led to a significant decrease in interbank funding rates [1][3] - Following these adjustments, the interbank 7-day reverse repurchase rate (DR007) dropped from approximately 1.7% on May 6 to around 1.5% by May 12 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Reactions - The bond market has shown a divergence in pricing, with short-term bond yields decreasing while long-term yields have increased, indicating a rational market response to the "double reduction" policy [3][4] - Specifically, the yield on 1-year government bonds fell from 1.4625% to a low of 1.4%, while the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.61% to 1.6825% during the same period [1][4] - On May 12, the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.6825%, and the yield on 30-year government bonds rose by 7.40 basis points to 1.9500%, reflecting significant volatility in long-term bonds [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The PBOC's first-quarter monetary policy report highlighted the need to prevent herd behavior and unilateral market fluctuations that could lead to interest rate risks [2][6] - There is ongoing market speculation regarding the potential resumption of government bond purchases by the PBOC, which could significantly influence the future trajectory of the bond market [9][11] - Analysts are divided on the likelihood of the PBOC restarting bond purchases, with some suggesting that the current market conditions do not necessitate such actions, while others remain optimistic about the possibility depending on future market developments [9][10]