1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Prudent control of the scale of bond net - buying is the most appropriate approach at the initial stage of restarting bond purchases to avoid the superposition and resonance of the two channels affecting bond yields [1][3] - The ideal state is that investors treat information on treasury bond trading operations like daily open - market reverse repurchase operations, and the central bank can flexibly use open - market treasury bond trading tools to inject base money and adjust bank - system liquidity without overly affecting bond yields [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Why did the central bank only purchase 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds? - On January 5, 2026, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection situation of the central bank's various tools in December 2025, showing a net liquidity injection of 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading tools. Compared with the monthly net purchases of 100 - 300 billion yuan from August to December 2024, the monthly net purchases of 20 - 50 billion yuan since the restart of treasury bond trading in October 2025 are relatively small. Prudent control of the purchase scale is appropriate in the initial months after restarting bond purchases [1] Impact of open - market treasury bond trading on bond yields - Open - market treasury bond trading affects bond yields through two channels. The asset - liability - sheet channel is that the central bank's trading of treasury bonds changes market supply - and - demand relations, and the expected channel is that investors trade on the information of the central bank's treasury bond trading, increasing the volatility of bond yields. The decline in yields largely comes from the expected channel [2] Measures to suppress the impact of the expected channel - The way to suppress the second channel is to dilute investors' attention to the central bank's bond purchases and weaken the relationship between the central bank's bond purchases and yields. At the beginning of restarting bond purchases, it is necessary to control the scale of bond net purchases to avoid the superposition of the two channels. When the market no longer overly focuses on the central bank's bond - purchase scale, the central bank can gradually increase the scale [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed overview of various monetary policy tools utilized by the central bank, highlighting their respective amounts in terms of issuance, repayment, and net issuance. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank's adjustment of the statutory deposit reserve ratio is noted, but no specific figures are provided for issuance or repayment [2] - The Standing Lending Facility (SLF) has a total issuance of 100 billion, with 29 billion repaid, resulting in a net issuance of 71 billion [2] - The Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) shows a total issuance of 4000 billion, with 3000 billion repaid, leading to a net issuance of 1000 billion [2] - The Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) has no issuance but 56 billion repaid, resulting in a net decrease of 56 billion [2] - Other structural monetary policy tools have a total issuance of 6389 billion, with 4795 billion repaid, resulting in a net issuance of 1594 billion [2] Group 2: Open Market Operations - The 7-day reverse repurchase agreements have a total issuance of 35361 billion, with 34542 billion repaid, resulting in a net issuance of 819 billion [2] - Other term reverse repurchase agreements show a total issuance of 18000 billion, with 14000 billion repaid, leading to a net issuance of 4000 billion [2] - The open market transactions of government bonds have a total issuance of 500 billion, with no repayments, resulting in a net issuance of 500 billion [2] - Central treasury cash management has a total issuance of 2100 billion, with 2000 billion repaid, resulting in a net issuance of 100 billion [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - Platinum is expected to trade in a narrow range, while palladium may rise as the NYMEX - London price spread widens [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 442.50 with a - 2.02% decline, and the gold - exchange platinum closed at 430.94 with a - 2.50% decline. New York platinum main - continuous dropped 1.05% to 1653.60, and London spot platinum fell 1.36% to 1640.50. Palladium futures 2606 decreased 2.12% to 374.25, and the RMB spot palladium dropped 4.37% to 350.00. New York palladium main - continuous rose 4.31% to 1516.00, and London spot palladium declined 1.61% to 1424.81 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 22,571, a decrease of 23,377 from the previous day, and open interest was 12,265, an increase of 415. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 37,392, an increase of 377, and open interest was 65,112, a decrease of 296. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 9,569, a decrease of 12,680, and open interest was 3,367, an increase of 190. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 8,303, an increase of 3,029, and open interest was 18,613, an increase of 877 [2] - **ETF and Inventory**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces) were 3,102,559, and palladium ETF holdings (ounces) increased by 18,852 to 1,077,508. Guangzhou platinum inventory was 1 kg, NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) was 616,327 with no change. Guangzhou palladium inventory was 1 kg, and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) decreased by 620 to 172,604 [2] - **Spreads**: PT9995 - PT2606 spread was - 11.56, a decrease of 1.94. The spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 2.20 with no change. The cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 5.51, a decrease of 0.11. The spread between the gold - exchange platinum and London platinum was 57.98, a decrease of 5.81. The spread between RMB spot palladium and PD2606 was - 24, a decrease of 7.90. The spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 1.60 with no change. The cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 4.70, a decrease of 0.10. The spread between RMB spot palladium and London palladium was 26, a decrease of 10.63 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.32, a decrease of 0.03%. The US dollar - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.07, a decrease of 0.02%. The US dollar - offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 7.07 with no change. The US dollar - RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 7.00, a decrease of 0.04% [2] Macro and Industry News - Trump stated that the US will soon conduct land - based strikes against drug - trafficking groups [4] - Trump will announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chairman early next year, hinting positively at Hassett as the next chairman [5] - Putin threatened to cut off Ukraine's sea lanes and vowed to intensify attacks on Ukrainian facilities and vessels. He also said Russia cannot accept Europe's modification of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" and is ready for war if Europe wants it. Putin held a nearly 5 - hour meeting with a US envoy, and the Russian side said the meeting was fruitful and both sides agreed not to disclose the details of the negotiation [5] - Trading in precious - metal derivatives surged, and the CME's average daily trading volume in November reached the second - highest record in history [5] - The People's Bank of China net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury - bond transactions in November [5] Trend Intensity - Platinum's trend intensity is 0, and palladium's trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both metals [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the timing and implementation of the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) resumption of government bond trading, as it reflects a reasonable yield point from a short-term central bank perspective [4][13] - The article discusses the potential impact of the PBOC's actions on liquidity management, particularly in relation to the scale of re-lending during the period of government bond purchases [4][14] - It highlights the significance of banks' government bond purchases during the PBOC's operations, indicating that increased purchases could positively affect overall liquidity, while reduced purchases may have a limited impact [4][15] Group 2 - The article presents two considerations regarding the provision of liquidity to non-bank institutions, noting the correlation between non-bank deposits and equity market transaction volumes [6][19] - It suggests that the reduction in volatility of equity assets this year has improved their risk-adjusted returns, enhancing the attractiveness of equity asset allocation [6][21] Group 3 - The article outlines three thoughts on future monetary policy, indicating that the necessity for a short-term reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is low due to the current economic context [7][24] - It also states that the probability of a short-term policy interest rate cut is low, as it could accelerate the outflow of household deposits into financial markets [7][26] - The possibility of a reduction in the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is noted, as it could help lower household debt costs and improve the downward trend in housing prices [7][26] Group 4 - The article analyzes the impact of current policies on capital markets, stating that the strength of the equity market this year is attributed to reduced volatility and drawdown [8][27] - It mentions that the PBOC's resumption of government bond trading sets a framework for short-term interest rates, but the actual rates will still depend on supply and demand dynamics [8][27] - Historical experience suggests that a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds requires sustained liquidity injections from the central bank, with the potential for rapid asset price increases due to shifts in non-bank deposits [8][30]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and implement moderately loose monetary policies, utilizing various monetary policy tools to provide liquidity arrangements in the short, medium, and long term [1] - The PBOC has paused government bond trading earlier this year due to significant supply-demand imbalances and market risks, but will now resume open market operations for government bonds as the bond market is currently performing well [1] - The PBOC is addressing the issue of virtual currencies, particularly stablecoins, which are still in the early stages of development and do not meet basic requirements for customer identification and anti-money laundering, thus exacerbating global financial regulatory gaps [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is researching policies to support personal credit repair, including a one-time personal credit relief policy that will not display certain default records in the credit system for individuals who have repaid loans below a specified amount since the pandemic [2] - This measure aims to help individuals accelerate the repair of their credit records while maintaining the effectiveness of default credit records, and is planned for implementation in early next year after necessary technical preparations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market transactions of government bonds, as stated by Governor Pan Gongsheng at the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting [1] Group 1 - The PBOC's decision to resume government bond trading indicates a proactive approach to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] - This move is expected to enhance market confidence and improve the overall functioning of the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will resume open market transactions of government bonds, as stated by Governor Pan Gongsheng at the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting [1] Group 1 - The resumption of government bond trading is a significant move by the central bank to enhance liquidity in the financial markets [1] - This decision reflects the PBOC's ongoing efforts to manage monetary policy effectively in response to economic conditions [1] - The announcement is expected to influence market sentiment and investor behavior regarding government securities [1]