2025.09.12 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 买预期卖事实，一贯的路子了。只不过，我先提前说，这次的卖预期不是想象中的那么容易的。因为情绪和时间打了个偏差，多头的大资金们一旦想出逃， 那就是踩踏状的。届时新旧财年交互里，黄金的感知力也会增加，但埋伏一下，恐怕就得要十月中下旬这样了。 希望这个预期不成立，这样还能不那么多收割机。 黄金：嘻嘻，刷刷更快乐。 虽然我昨天的文章属于虎头蛇尾，是到技术面的描述上有些苍白了。那不是一眼就看到了阻力，加上直播的时候叨叨了一个小时，没啥再次预期的力气了 嘛。但是你说，39—45的区间在数据上是不是还蛮好用的。 所以你看，写那些（辅助指标）的技术类有什么用吗，就基本面+裸K随手一画，就可以了呀。反正当前一时半会儿也不会破位，那就把目光放到极致。极 远和极近，趋势转变之前，小短线玩一玩得了。 面对当前紊乱的技术面，我的唯一劝告是，把眼睛闭起来~对我个人来说，既然已经锚定了9月18日前后会是见顶的时期，那么在此之前，买预期的买盘又 推升了将近三百多个点，那就只有两个选项，即横盘震荡修正和回调修正两种。 借助当前的行情，大跌修正什么的，我是不敢轻易相信啦。毕竟 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation impacts and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America strategist Hartnett warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raises alarms about the potential for the Fed to lower rates in a rising inflation environment, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [12] - Viomi Technology (VIOT.US) anticipates over 70% year-over-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales of home water purification devices [12]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance, with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, indicating potential market corrections [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raised concerns about the potential for the dollar to face challenges if the Fed lowers rates while inflation is rising, a scenario not seen in nearly 20 years [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [11] - Cloud Mi Technology (VIOT.US) expects over 1.4 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, a growth of over 70% year-over-year, driven by increased sales of home water purification devices [12]

Group 1 - The US stock market reached a historical high this week, but there are concerns about a potential pullback if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1] - Investors are heavily investing in high-risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and corporate bonds, betting on interest rate cuts to support a weak job market and alleviate US debt pressure [1] - Michael Hartnett's strategy team emphasizes a preference for international stocks over US equities, a strategy that has been validated by market performance this year [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index recently hit a record high, driven by tech giants and supported by moderate CPI data, with a 92% probability of a rate cut in September indicated by interest rate swap contracts [2] - The S&P 500 index has risen nearly 30% since its low in April, and there was a net inflow of $21 billion into US stock funds in the week ending August 13, reversing the previous week's outflow of $28 billion [2] - Hartnett warns of stock market bubble risks, suggesting that gold, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets will benefit the most as investors seek inflation-hedged assets and hedge against a weakening dollar [2]

黄金市场总是充满戏剧性！刚刚公布的美国 7 月非农数据堪称亮眼：新增就业远超预期、失业率小幅下 降，堪称 "加息利器" 的完美组合。按照常规逻辑，这样的数据理应打压金价，然而市场却上演惊人反 转黄金不跌反涨，最终强势高位收盘，甚至突破关键阻力！这究竟是为什么？金价下周是否已开启新一 轮大涨通道？ 一、 "利空" 不跌反涨？三大关键支撑揭秘黄金韧性 三、实战策略：这周黄金布局方向解析 "买预期卖事实" 效应： 尽管非农数据超预期，但市场对美联储 9 月降息的预期早已部分消化。数据落 地后，投资者反而趁利空出尽积极布局黄金，推动价格反弹。 美元涨势 "熄火"： 非农后，美元指数意外冲高回落，再度失守 105 关键支撑。美元走软是金价最直接 的 "兴奋剂"，国际买家购金成本降低，从而推升国际金价。 中东危局持续发酵： 黎以边境新一轮冲突突然升级，市场避险情绪再度升温。黄金作为 "乱世避险之 王" 的价值重新获得全球资本认可，有效抵消了非农数据的利空压力。 突破回踩买入： 激进者可在 2075-2080 美元附近寻找支撑信号做多，目标看向 2100 美元心理关口，突 破后有望向 2120-2150 区域挺进。 稳健突 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market reactions to news are often driven by expectations rather than the news itself, as illustrated by the recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding interest rate cuts [1][9] - Waller emphasizes that while the employment market appears stable, there are signs of weakness in private sector job growth, and inflation is close to target with limited upward risks [2][9] - The concept of "expectation difference" is crucial in investment, where market movements are influenced by what investors anticipate rather than actual events [2][9] Group 2 - The performance of two companies, Shengtun Mining and Qifeng New Materials, highlights the disparity in stock reactions to earnings forecasts, with Shengtun benefiting from institutional investment while Qifeng did not [5][8] - Institutional investors often leverage retail investors' focus on concepts to influence stock prices, indicating that market movements are not solely based on the underlying concepts but also on pricing power [5][8] - Data analysis reveals that institutional activity precedes positive earnings forecasts, suggesting that early positioning by large funds can significantly impact stock performance [8][9] Group 3 - Waller's call for a rate cut is understood in the context that the market has already priced in the expectation of such a move, with the actual impact depending on the magnitude and timing of the cuts [9][11] - The importance of market interpretation of news is emphasized, suggesting that the real insights are often found in data rather than headlines [9][10] - Investors are encouraged to focus on data analysis and institutional trends rather than chasing news, as this approach can provide a clearer understanding of market intentions [10][12]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $32.27, with a recent price of $32.50, reflecting a 0.14% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $32.57, while the lowest was $32.20, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - The conflict between India and Pakistan has escalated, with India claiming to have struck Pakistan's air defense systems, while Pakistan reported downing 29 Indian drones [2] - The geopolitical tensions have initially driven precious metal prices higher, but market expectations of a controlled situation have reduced the safe-haven premium [2] - Analyst Ole Hansen warns of a potential "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario in the precious metals market, suggesting a cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - Silver prices faced resistance during a recent rebound and are approaching support levels, indicating that the market direction may not have fundamentally changed [3] - The ZZ indicator did not show a top signal during the rebound, suggesting that further observation is needed for potential price movements [3] - The focus will be on whether silver can break through the key high points encountered during the previous rebound [3]