黄金市场总是充满戏剧性！刚刚公布的美国 7 月非农数据堪称亮眼：新增就业远超预期、失业率小幅下 降，堪称 "加息利器" 的完美组合。按照常规逻辑，这样的数据理应打压金价，然而市场却上演惊人反 转黄金不跌反涨，最终强势高位收盘，甚至突破关键阻力！这究竟是为什么？金价下周是否已开启新一 轮大涨通道？ 一、 "利空" 不跌反涨？三大关键支撑揭秘黄金韧性 三、实战策略：这周黄金布局方向解析 "买预期卖事实" 效应： 尽管非农数据超预期，但市场对美联储 9 月降息的预期早已部分消化。数据落 地后，投资者反而趁利空出尽积极布局黄金，推动价格反弹。 美元涨势 "熄火"： 非农后，美元指数意外冲高回落，再度失守 105 关键支撑。美元走软是金价最直接 的 "兴奋剂"，国际买家购金成本降低，从而推升国际金价。 中东危局持续发酵： 黎以边境新一轮冲突突然升级，市场避险情绪再度升温。黄金作为 "乱世避险之 王" 的价值重新获得全球资本认可，有效抵消了非农数据的利空压力。 突破回踩买入： 激进者可在 2075-2080 美元附近寻找支撑信号做多，目标看向 2100 美元心理关口，突 破后有望向 2120-2150 区域挺进。 稳健突 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market reactions to news are often driven by expectations rather than the news itself, as illustrated by the recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller regarding interest rate cuts [1][9] - Waller emphasizes that while the employment market appears stable, there are signs of weakness in private sector job growth, and inflation is close to target with limited upward risks [2][9] - The concept of "expectation difference" is crucial in investment, where market movements are influenced by what investors anticipate rather than actual events [2][9] Group 2 - The performance of two companies, Shengtun Mining and Qifeng New Materials, highlights the disparity in stock reactions to earnings forecasts, with Shengtun benefiting from institutional investment while Qifeng did not [5][8] - Institutional investors often leverage retail investors' focus on concepts to influence stock prices, indicating that market movements are not solely based on the underlying concepts but also on pricing power [5][8] - Data analysis reveals that institutional activity precedes positive earnings forecasts, suggesting that early positioning by large funds can significantly impact stock performance [8][9] Group 3 - Waller's call for a rate cut is understood in the context that the market has already priced in the expectation of such a move, with the actual impact depending on the magnitude and timing of the cuts [9][11] - The importance of market interpretation of news is emphasized, suggesting that the real insights are often found in data rather than headlines [9][10] - Investors are encouraged to focus on data analysis and institutional trends rather than chasing news, as this approach can provide a clearer understanding of market intentions [10][12]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $32.27, with a recent price of $32.50, reflecting a 0.14% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $32.57, while the lowest was $32.20, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - The conflict between India and Pakistan has escalated, with India claiming to have struck Pakistan's air defense systems, while Pakistan reported downing 29 Indian drones [2] - The geopolitical tensions have initially driven precious metal prices higher, but market expectations of a controlled situation have reduced the safe-haven premium [2] - Analyst Ole Hansen warns of a potential "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario in the precious metals market, suggesting a cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 3 - Silver prices faced resistance during a recent rebound and are approaching support levels, indicating that the market direction may not have fundamentally changed [3] - The ZZ indicator did not show a top signal during the rebound, suggesting that further observation is needed for potential price movements [3] - The focus will be on whether silver can break through the key high points encountered during the previous rebound [3]