Core Viewpoint - The long-term economic forecast by the Japan Economic Research Center indicates that the GDP scale reversal between China and the US is unlikely to occur, despite potential long-term impacts from policies proposed by former President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - By 2075, China's total fertility rate is projected to drop to 0.8, which suggests that the GDP scale reversal between China and the US will not happen [3]. - The overall real GDP of Japan is expected to decline from $3.5 trillion in 2024 (4th place) to $4.4 trillion by 2075 (11th place), with an average growth rate of only 0.3% from 2071 to 2075 [3]. - The global growth rate is anticipated to average 3.3% from 2021 to 2030, but will slow to 1.3% from 2071 to 2075 due to declining populations in major countries [3][4]. Group 2: Regional Population Dynamics - East Asia's population is projected to decrease by over 600 million, while Southeast Asia and South Asia are also expected to experience population declines [4]. - Africa's population will continue to grow, surpassing East Asia by the mid-2040s [4]. Group 3: GDP Projections and Emerging Markets - If Trump's proposed policies are implemented long-term, there is a possibility that China's GDP could surpass that of the US by 2049 [4]. - In a standard scenario, emerging market countries are expected to gain influence, with India's GDP ranking third and Indonesia fifth by 2075 [4]. - The total GDP of the BRICS nations is projected to be 1.4 times that of the US by 2075, with significant contributions from new members [4]. Group 4: International Cooperation - The Japan Economic Research Center emphasizes the importance of cooperation with the G7, stating that the US cannot confront challenges alone [4]. - The potential formation of a "super free trade zone" involving the 12 CPTPP member countries and the 27 EU nations is highlighted as a significant economic development [4][5].

Group 1 - The core idea of the government work report emphasizes the importance of "investing in people" as a key aspect of modernization, highlighting that human capital is crucial for high-quality development [1][2] - The report advocates for directing more financial resources towards education, healthcare, and elderly care, which are identified as areas needing improvement, to create a virtuous cycle of economic growth and better living standards [1][2] - The focus on human investment aims to enhance employment stability and income growth, thereby improving overall economic performance and addressing the needs of the population [2] Group 2 - The report specifically mentions the issuance of childcare subsidies as a tangible example of "investing in people," reflecting a commitment to support families and enhance human capital [2] - The development philosophy centered on the people is identified as the fundamental stance of China's economic development, emphasizing the need to align policies with the needs of the populace [2] - By fostering human development and maximizing individual potential, the report suggests that this approach will provide sustained momentum for the construction of a modernized China [2]