Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which fell by 8% on June 23, and further declines are expected following Trump's announcement of a "full ceasefire" between Israel and Palestine [1] - Since June 11, geopolitical risks have notably increased, but signs of risk reduction were evident on June 23, resulting in a substantial retraction of the oil price premium [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 will address production decisions for August, with expectations that countries like Saudi Arabia may continue to increase production for the fourth consecutive month, intensifying supply pressures [1] Group 2 - Macro sentiment disturbances are expected to influence oil prices, particularly with the impending expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension and the ongoing negotiations regarding "reciprocal tariffs" with the U.S. [2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July will be crucial, as it faces challenges related to "stagflation" risks and debt issues, which could impact oil price trends [2] - The average international oil price is projected to remain supported in Q3 within the range of $60-65 per barrel, but there may be greater downward pressure in Q4 [2]

Group 1 - The price of London gold is experiencing a slight increase, currently reported at $3,370.37 per ounce, with a gain of 0.46% [1][3] - Today's gold price opened at $3,356.79 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,376.49 and a low of $3,351.38 [1][3] Group 2 - The market faces challenges due to rising U.S. government debt, with a significant amount of new debt expected to enter the market in the coming months [2] - A Reuters survey indicates that just over half of strategists expect a new round of selling pressure on long-term bonds by the end of June, primarily due to deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions [2] - The tax and spending plan proposed by President Trump is projected to increase U.S. debt by trillions of dollars before 2034, exacerbating market concerns [2] - Nearly 90% of surveyed forex strategists anticipate a significant decrease in demand for U.S. dollar assets this year, with European markets likely to benefit the most [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Villeroy stated that inflation in France is now under control, but the debt issue remains serious, indicating a need for stable public spending in France [1] Group 1 - Inflation in France has been brought under control [1] - The debt situation in France is still critical [1] - There is a necessity for France to stabilize its total public expenditure [1]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：法国的通胀现已得到控制，但债务问题仍然严重，法国不能再这样下去了。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In China, the economy turned downward in April due to tariff impacts, but the decline slowed in May. With the agreement reached in the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the United States, economic confidence has recovered. The government has ample resources and policies are expected to be implemented intensively in June [1][10][15]. - Abroad, tariff and debt issues continue to disrupt the market. Attention should be paid to whether the tariffs based on IEEPA can remain in effect. Short - term debt is not a problem, but the pressure lies in the medium - and long - term [2][27][31]. - For major asset classes, stocks will fluctuate within a range, bonds will fluctuate while waiting for an opportunity for interest rates to decline, the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.36, and gold will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][32][39] Summaries by Directory I. Domestic: Waiting for Policy Acceleration (1) April economic downturn, slower decline in May - Most economic data showed a decline in April. In May, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, but was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that the economy was still in a downward trend, but at a slower pace. From the perspective of leading monetary indicators, the economy is still at the bottom [1][10][11]. (2) The government has more measures in reserve - Fiscal spending is tilted towards people's livelihoods. The expenditure of public finance and government - managed funds is at a high level in history, but the expenditure on infrastructure has decreased. There are still large balances of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to be issued, and government deposits are much higher than in previous years. Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy are expected to be implemented by the end of June [15][16][23]. II. Abroad: Tariffs and Debt (1) Focus on whether the tariffs based on IEEPA can remain in effect - Tariff disruptions continue, but their impact on the market is gradually weakening. The court's decision on the legality of Trump's tariff measures needs attention. If the appeal fails, Trump may try other ways to impose tariffs, which could have a long - term impact on the US economy [27][28][29]. (2) Short - term debt is not a problem - The US has a large short - term debt rolling pressure, but it is unlikely that short - term debt cannot be renewed. The Fed has the SRF tool. The medium - and long - term debt pressure is controllable in the near term, and the pressure lies in the medium - and long - term [31]. III. Outlook for Major Asset Classes (1) Stocks: Range - bound fluctuations - Due to the smooth Geneva economic and trade talks, the overall tariff situation has returned to that on April 5. The export - rush effect in May is expected to continue, but economic uncertainties are still large, and the macro - economy continues to face pressure. The stock market is likely to fluctuate within a range [32]. (2) Bonds: Fluctuating while waiting for an opportunity for interest rates to decline - A full - process interest rate cut has been implemented. Future reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are likely. However, in the short term, the bond market is likely to remain volatile due to high capital interest rates, supply pressure, and potential deposit transfer issues [35]. (3) RMB exchange rate: Range - bound fluctuations - The weakening US dollar index drives the RMB to appreciate, but the appreciation is expected to be limited. The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.36 [39]. (4) Gold: Short - term range - bound fluctuations - Tariff and debt issues have pushed down the US dollar index and driven up the gold price. However, as these issues are not acute at present, gold is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short term [42].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debt issues of Xu Guangbin are leading to a significant change in the actual controller of Dongfang Materials, with his shareholding being judicially auctioned off, resulting in a decrease from over 12% to 5.44% [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Xu Guangbin's shareholding in Dongfang Materials is being reduced due to judicial auctions, with his personal holding dropping from over 12% to 5.44% after the transfer of shares [1] - Zhu Junfei will become the largest shareholder of Dongfang Materials, while Jiangsu Teliang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. will become the second largest shareholder after acquiring 5.96% of shares [1] - The auction results show that Teliang and an individual buyer bid for 12 million shares and 1.5 million shares, respectively, at prices of 168 million yuan and 24.95 million yuan, translating to per-share prices of 14.02 yuan and 16.64 yuan [1] Group 2: Financial Performance of Teliang - Teliang, primarily engaged in surface treatment processes for products like laptop keyboards, reported a revenue of 385 million yuan and a net profit of 17 million yuan in 2024 [1] - Teliang's acquisition of approximately 6% of Dongfang Materials for nearly 170 million yuan raises questions about its strategic intentions [1] Group 3: Legal and Financial Issues - Xu Guangbin's shares have been subject to multiple judicial executions, reflecting ongoing debt problems, with overdue debts amounting to approximately 45 million yuan in the past year [4] - There are ongoing legal disputes involving Xu Guangbin, with a total amount in litigation or arbitration cases reaching approximately 1.279 billion yuan [4] - Xu Guangbin's shareholding has been continuously decreasing due to forced sales, with his stake dropping to 12.54% after recent announcements [3]

Group 1 - The actual controller of Dongfang Materials, Xu Guangbin, faces judicial auction of 7.0241 million shares, accounting for 3.49% of the total share capital, due to a share transfer dispute [1] - The auction is scheduled for June 3-4, 2025, with a starting price of 84.6686 million yuan and a deposit of 10 million yuan [1] - As of April 30, 2025, Xu holds 24.7669 million shares, representing 12.31% of the total share capital [1] Group 2 - Xu Guangbin's shares are also subject to other judicial auctions and passive reductions, with 4.03 million shares (2% of total shares) undergoing passive reduction and 13.5 million shares (6.71% of total shares) set for auction on May 12-13, 2025 [2] - If all auctions and reductions are completed, Xu's shareholding could drop to 1.34%, potentially changing the company's controlling shareholder [2] - The company is monitoring the situation closely and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations [2] Group 3 - Judicial enforcement reflects underlying debt issues, with Xu having overdue debts of approximately 45 million yuan and ongoing litigation involving around 1.279 billion yuan [3] - Dongfang Materials' main revenue comes from traditional businesses like inks and polyurethane adhesives, with a reported revenue of 436 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.81% [3] - Despite expanding into computing power business, the company's net profit for 2024 was 13.9574 million yuan, a significant decline of 73.17% year-on-year [3]