Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is facing regulatory scrutiny due to reported monopolistic practices and price manipulation among leading polysilicon companies [3][4] - A recent meeting with the market regulatory authority emphasized the need for compliance and self-regulation within the industry to address issues of "involution" and unfair competition [3][4] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The main focus of the recent meeting included discussing the industry's consolidation plan and addressing monopolistic risks [3] - Companies involved were instructed to avoid agreements on production capacity, utilization rates, sales volumes, and pricing [3] - The regulatory body has highlighted the importance of addressing low-quality competition and the negative impact of "involution" on profitability and innovation within the industry [4] Group 2: Industry Compliance - Companies are expected to adhere strictly to regulatory requirements and engage in self-regulatory actions as mandated by the authorities [3] - The regulatory body will enhance product quality supervision and enforce laws against unfair competition to maintain a fair market environment [4] - Industry associations are urged to guide companies towards innovation and quality improvement to foster a sustainable industry ecosystem [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is undergoing significant changes and reforms, focusing on high-quality development and addressing issues of overcapacity and unhealthy competition [2][5][8]. Group 1: Industry Regulation and Governance - Since 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has implemented measures to regulate the photovoltaic industry, including capacity control, standardization, and technological innovation [1]. - The photovoltaic industry is responding to national calls to combat "involution" and is working towards self-regulation, achieving some preliminary results [1][4]. - In 2026, the governance of the photovoltaic industry will enter a critical phase, with an emphasis on capacity control and the establishment of price monitoring mechanisms [1]. Group 2: Industry Performance and Financials - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a transformation, with companies showing a willingness to adapt and improve product quality [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue of 31 major photovoltaic companies decreased by 16.9% year-on-year, with a 11.7% decline in Q3 [2]. - Despite revenue declines, the profitability of the main industry chain is gradually improving, with losses narrowing to 31.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, and a reduction of 5.6 billion yuan in Q3 compared to Q2 [2]. Group 3: Product Pricing and Export Trends - As of November 2025, the average factory price of polysilicon increased by 34.4% year-on-year, while the average price of photovoltaic modules saw a slight increase of 1.34% [3]. - The export volume of photovoltaic products has shown signs of recovery, with total exports amounting to 24.42 billion USD in the first ten months of the year, a decrease of 13.2%, which is an improvement from a 34.5% decline in the same period of 2024 [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - The photovoltaic industry is still in a critical adjustment period, facing challenges such as uncertain domestic and international market demand and a complex trade environment [5]. - The industry must focus on self-discipline and collaboration within the supply chain to reshape a healthy industrial ecosystem, emphasizing quality over quantity [7]. - There is a need for technological innovation and intellectual property protection to build core competitiveness, with a focus on high-efficiency batteries and smart photovoltaic solutions [7].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a new development cycle, with China's new installed capacity reaching 277.2 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, and a cumulative installed capacity of 886.7 GW by the end of 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.8% from 2015 to 2024 [18][19] - The penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation in China has increased from 0.4% in 2014 to 9.8% in 2024, surpassing the global average, indicating significant growth potential in the future [20][24] - The industry is currently facing "involution" competition, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and widespread losses among companies, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition driven by technological innovation [3][28] Group 2 - Capital expenditure in the photovoltaic industry is significantly decreasing, with a 46.4% year-on-year decline in 2025, indicating a strategic shift towards focusing on advanced technologies rather than blind expansion [47][48] - The BC technology penetration rate is rapidly increasing, with market share expected to rise to 5.0% in 2024, up 4.1 percentage points from 2023, providing a differentiated and high-margin breakthrough for photovoltaic companies [67][68] - The efficiency of perovskite solar cells has reached new heights, with the potential for further industrialization and cost reduction, making them a strategic focus for the future [9][34] Group 3 - The central economic work conference has emphasized the need to deeply rectify "involution" competition, which is particularly prevalent in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to enhance quality and efficiency rather than scale [32][33] - The market is witnessing a structural adjustment, with leading companies focusing on building long-term competitive advantages through investments in next-generation technologies, such as BC and perovskite cells [48][64] - The recent procurement adjustments by China Huaneng Group for high-efficiency components, increasing the share of components with conversion efficiency of 23.8% and above to 58.3%, signal a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [71]

光伏大消息。 近期，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司（下称"光和谦成"）注册成立，中国光伏行业协会确认其就是酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平 台"。这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新举措，被业内视为破解光伏"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键行动 之一。 收储平台在2025年末的成立，为光伏行业自律及"反内卷"画上了一个阶段性句号。但是，行业仍然面临诸多难题，一方面，明年国内光伏 新增需求预计将出现近年来首度下滑；另一方面，硅料价格的率先上涨能否带动产业链下游环节价格回升仍存不确定性。在这一不确定的背 景下，随着银浆等辅材成本飙升，下游电池、组件环节扭亏进程也将被推后。 数据来源：东方证券 多晶硅产能目标降至150万吨 根据光伏协会的介绍，光和谦成所代表的收储平台拟采取"两条腿走路"的模式，实行"承债式收购+弹性封存压产能"的双轨运行模式。其 中，在金融纾困层面，该平台承接数百亿元级潜在债务，可帮助化解银行与供应商危机，推动价格回归合理区间，恢复全产业链"造血"功 能。 隆众资讯分析师高玲向记者表示，此前外界推测收储平台可能以类似国家大宗商品储备的强干预模式出现，通过巨额资金进行实质性采购， ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" by Guanghe Qiancheng is seen as a crucial step to address the "involution" and fierce competition within the photovoltaic industry, with the aim of promoting self-regulation and stabilizing the market [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Establishment and Function - Guanghe Qiancheng's platform will operate on a "dual-track" model, involving "debt acquisition and flexible capacity storage," aiming to alleviate potential debts of hundreds of billions and restore the industry's financial health [2][3]. - The platform is designed to act as a coordinator and information hub rather than a direct market participant, reflecting a cautious balance between market intervention and avoiding excessive administrative control [2][3]. - The focus will shift from whether the platform is established to what specific actions it will take, with the urgency and efficiency of its actions being critical for addressing the underlying issues of overcapacity [2][3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Capacity Adjustments - The target for polysilicon capacity is set to be reduced to 1.5 million tons, aligning with market demand, as the current capacity is around 3.5 million tons [3][4]. - Investment institutions are expected to participate in the acquisition actions, with a proposed structure where enterprises contribute 30% and investment institutions 70% to leverage significant assets [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic market is projected to experience a decline in new installations for the first time, with estimates suggesting a drop in new installations ranging from 35% to 4% in 2026 under different scenarios [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from rapid growth to stable growth, with a need for horizontal collaboration and self-regulation to prevent excessive production [7]. - The industry faces uncertainty regarding the pass-through of rising costs along the supply chain, particularly as prices for key materials like silver paste and silicon rise [8][9]. - Predictions indicate that the overall photovoltaic industry chain may achieve profitability in 2026, contingent on effective capacity integration and market-driven price adjustments [10].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" by Guanghe Qiancheng is seen as a crucial step to address the "involution" and vicious competition within the photovoltaic industry, aiming for self-regulation and capacity adjustment by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Establishment and Functionality - Guanghe Qiancheng's platform will operate on a "dual-track" model, involving "debt acquisition and flexible capacity storage," aiming to alleviate potential debts of hundreds of billions and restore the industry's financial health [2][3]. - The platform is expected to act more as a coordinator and information hub rather than a direct market player, reflecting a cautious balance between market intervention and avoiding excessive administrative control [2][3]. - The focus will shift from whether the platform is established to what specific actions it will take, with the urgency and efficiency of its actions being critical for addressing the underlying issues of overcapacity [2][3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic photovoltaic installation is projected to experience its first decline in new demand in years, with estimates suggesting a drop in new installations in 2026 [6][7]. - The current polysilicon capacity is around 3.5 million tons, with the platform aiming to reduce it to 1.5 million tons to align with market demand [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the market will face significant pressure in the first half of next year, with potential negative growth in new installations, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to stable growth in the photovoltaic sector [6][7]. Group 3: Cost and Pricing Challenges - The rising costs of raw materials, particularly silver paste and silicon, have increased production costs for photovoltaic components, leading to concerns about the industry's ability to pass on these costs effectively [8][9]. - The anticipated price recovery across the industry is expected to be gradual, with projections for polysilicon prices in 2026 ranging from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton, and module prices between 0.88 and 0.99 yuan per watt [10]. - The industry is expected to undergo a restructuring process, with lower-tier companies maintaining low operational rates, which may lead to a gradual exit or reorganization of outdated capacities [10].

此外，截至2025年11月30日，A股136家上市公司（含主产业链31家、辅材33家、设备28家、逆变器14 家、光伏发电30家）与2家港股上市企业总市值逐步提升至29679.6亿元，较4月增幅39.57%。其中，多 晶硅企业市值增长尤为明显，达到283.99亿元，相较4月增长52.1%。整个三季度行业市值环比提升 24.4%，多晶硅企业市值环比提升39.3%。 光伏行业的短期企稳并非终点，而是高质量发展的新起点。协会在文中表示，光伏行业同仁在展望2026 年时，也一定寄望于企业竞争回归到价值本源，从"价格战"转向"价值战"。这一转型的核心动力是创新 驱动。正如中央经济工作会议所部署的，要"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，并强化企业创新主 体地位，以差异化技术构建护城河。 问题的根源在于供需的失衡，需要从需求侧加大提振力度，推动供需在更高水平实现动态平衡。过去一 年，光伏行业为破解困局，展开了一场触及根本的自救与革新。由中国光伏行业协会牵头，建立起了覆 盖全产业链的信息监测与拉通机制，通过建立产业链信息透明化机制，让企业的自主决策对市场的反馈 更迅速、更科学，将行业从无序竞争的"纳什均衡"拉向互利合作的" ...

硅年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 周贵升 从业资格证号： F3036194 投资咨询资格证号： Z0015986 硅年报 2025-12 基本面上看，在当前弱势行情下，工业硅整体开工率处于低位运行，西北 大厂因成本优势开工保持较高水平，同时关注环保天气以及行业自律对开工的 影响，西南地区开工呈现季节性波动，此外一体化龙头企业也保持较高开工， 整体供应压力仍存。需求端，增量较为有限，多晶硅保持高位水平，今年以来 多晶硅企业按行业自律生产，开工率维持 35%左右低位水平，下半年因行业反 内卷价格大幅反弹，叠加西南丰水期开工有所提升，近期多晶硅平台公司落地， 摘要： 整体来看，工业硅方面，目前工业硅仍处于缓慢去化阶段，供应端维持低 位小幅增加，需求端增量有限，因此上方空间有所压制，但下方受成本支撑， 预计工业硅价格维持低位震荡。多晶硅方面，收储平台持续推进，供应水平逐 步贴合需求，光伏装机维持高位震荡，预计盘面维持高位区间震荡，关注光伏 行业反内卷推进情况。 关注：硅企行业自律、光伏收储反内卷政策 未来产能规划将控制在合理区间，而新增光伏装机则受限于新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is in a slow destocking phase, with supply increasing slightly at a low level and limited demand growth. Its price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, supported by cost at the bottom [2][44][47]. - For polysilicon, the storage platform is advancing, supply is gradually matching demand, and photovoltaic installations are maintaining high - level oscillations. The futures price is expected to stay in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry [2][47]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, the silicon energy market had two phases. In the first half, due to deteriorating supply - demand and intensified competition, industrial silicon and polysilicon prices dropped below the cost line. In the second half, with the anti - involution policy, prices rebounded. The industrial silicon weighted index dropped by 36.3% from January 1st to June 4th, then rebounded but faced high - inventory pressure [8]. - Polysilicon's 06 contract rose in the first three months due to pre - Spring Festival restocking and strong terminal demand. After April, it declined because of US tariffs and reduced terminal demand. In the second half, it rebounded strongly and then maintained high - level oscillations [9]. 2. Cost - side Rigid Support and Seasonal Fluctuation of Hydropower - In the first half of 2025, industrial silicon costs collapsed due to weak demand. In the second half, with the anti - involution policy and the arrival of the wet season, raw material prices recovered. Electricity cost is crucial. Xinjiang has low thermal power costs, while Yunnan and Sichuan have seasonal cost fluctuations due to hydropower [11]. 3. Significant Decline in Production and Xinjiang's Largest Production Share - In 2025, the national industrial silicon开工率 decreased significantly. From January to November, the output was 356.98 million tons, a 19.1% year - on - year decrease. Xinjiang is the largest producer, accounting for 52.7% of the national capacity. Inner Mongolia and Gansu had increased output, while Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [11][14]. - In the future, as the dry season raises electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan, production will decrease in the south and increase in the north. In 2026, industrial silicon supply will rely on industry self - discipline, and overall supply pressure remains [15]. 4. Polysilicon Industry Chain - From January to November 2025, polysilicon output was 119.48 million tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. In December, a platform company was established, planning to limit the capacity to 150 million tons [18]. - Polysilicon prices fluctuated greatly in 2025. They rose in the first quarter, declined from April to June, and rebounded in the second half due to the anti - involution policy [19]. - In 2025, from January to October, China imported 1.61 million tons of polysilicon (a 52.4% year - on - year decrease) and exported 2.02 million tons (a 33.3% year - on - year decrease). The export market is under pressure due to US sanctions [24]. - In the photovoltaic industry, although the anti - involution policy improved the situation in the second half, downstream over - capacity still exists. In 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations are expected to reach 275GW, similar to last year, with a significant slowdown in growth. Overseas, different countries have different demand situations, and future global new installations may grow weakly [29][34]. 5. Silicone Industry Chain - In 2025, silicone prices first rebounded and then declined. After the industry's joint production - cut meeting in November, prices rose to 13,700 yuan/ton. The production profit also fluctuated accordingly [34]. - As of November 2025, the silicone DMC capacity was 344 million tons with no new capacity. Downstream demand is diversified, with traditional construction demand decreasing and emerging fields increasing. In the future, terminal demand growth is limited, and the industry plans to cut production by 30% [35]. 6. Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain - In 2025, aluminum alloy prices were relatively stable, oscillating around a high level. From January to May, the output was 15.76 billion tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicles are the main growth point for silicon - aluminum alloy demand, but future growth is limited [39]. 7. Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Exports - From January to October 2025, industrial silicon exports were 607,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. Overseas procurement is demand - based, and exports are expected to remain high - level oscillating next year [43].

Group 1 - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. by leading silicon material companies marks a significant step towards "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1] - The average transaction price for N-type recycled silicon material is 53,200 CNY/ton, while N-type granular silicon is at 50,500 CNY/ton, both remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - Despite some positive news in the industry, self-discipline and production control are still pending, leading to limited market stimulation and a continuation of previous market conditions [1][2] Group 2 - Inventory levels for silicon material manufacturers are rising, with individual companies holding nearly 290,000 tons, indicating a persistent oversupply situation [2] - The mainstream transaction price for 183N silicon wafers is 1.18 CNY/piece, while 210RN wafers range from 1.20 to 1.23 CNY/piece, showing signs of price stabilization after previous declines [3] - The average price for battery cells of 183N and 210N has decreased to 0.28 CNY/W, with 210RN maintaining stability at 0.275 CNY/W, reflecting a price divergence among manufacturers [4]