Core Viewpoint - The euro is rising against the dollar, reaching a nearly four-year high, influenced by a weakening dollar and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariff suspension period of 90 days is set to end on July 9, contributing to the pressure on the dollar [1] - Analysts from Monex Europe suggest that if ECB President Lagarde expresses caution regarding interest rate cuts, it could provide additional support for the euro [1] - There is a potential limitation on the positive impact of Lagarde's comments due to the possibility of Fed Chair Powell also maintaining a cautious stance [1] Group 2 - Both central bank leaders will speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, at 21:30 Beijing time [1]

Key Points Summary Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the global economic outlook, with a focus on the Chinese economy, U.S. economic policies, and the performance of various asset classes, particularly in the context of investment strategies for 2025 and beyond [2][4][18]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Outlook**: The global economy is experiencing structural slowdown, with growth expected to decline from 3.5% in Q4 2022 to 2.5% in Q4 2023, indicating a significant downtrend but not an outright recession [4][6]. 2. **U.S. Economic Challenges**: The U.S. is facing inflationary pressures due to tariffs and other uncertainties, with GDP growth projected to slow to around 1% in Q4 2023. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates this year due to persistent inflation [5][6]. 3. **China's Economic Performance**: China's GDP growth forecast has been adjusted to 4.5% for 2023, with structural deflationary pressures still present. The impact of tariffs on exports is significant, with expectations of a decline in export growth from 6% last year to near zero this year [9][19][21]. 4. **Investment Strategies**: There is a shift in focus towards high-quality fixed income assets, with a neutral rating on equities globally. The U.S. stock market is favored, with a projected rise in the S&P 500 to 6,500 points, while emerging markets are expected to have limited upside [45][48][49]. 5. **Hong Kong Market Dynamics**: The Hong Kong market is seeing renewed interest from global investors, particularly in light of the recent drop in interest rates and the potential for capital inflows due to a weaker U.S. dollar [12][40]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Tariff Implications**: The recently passed 899 clause in the U.S. Congress could impose discriminatory taxes on European companies operating in the U.S., potentially undermining their investment confidence [7][8]. 2. **Consumer Behavior in China**: Consumer spending remains weak, with reliance on policies like "trade-in" programs to stimulate demand. The real estate market continues to struggle, affecting overall consumer confidence and spending [23][24][26]. 3. **Policy Recommendations**: There is a consensus that the Chinese government needs to implement significant reforms in social security and housing to stabilize the economy and enhance consumer spending [26][28]. 4. **Long-term Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term volatility, there is a belief that the Chinese stock market will recover in the long run, particularly in sectors driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [55][58]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economic trends and their implications for investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is currently facing three major uncertainties that are primarily pressuring steel prices [1] Group 1: Market Pressures - The first uncertainty is the trajectory of the US-China "tariff war," with US tariffs on Chinese steel and related products reaching unprecedented levels, including a recent increase to 50% on steel and aluminum imports [2] - The second uncertainty is the global economic growth outlook, which has been negatively impacted by US tariff policies, leading to a pessimistic view of both US and global economic growth [3] - The third uncertainty involves China's steel production release, where despite government policies to control production, there remains a strong incentive for companies to increase output when prices rise, leading to a persistent oversupply situation [4] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite the ongoing impact of the US-China "tariff war," recent negotiations suggest that the situation may be stabilizing, with positive effects from China's counter-cyclical policies, particularly in the real estate market [5] - Industrial value-added output in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, with manufacturing output increasing by 6.9%, indicating resilience in steel consumption [6] - Fixed asset investment in China also showed a year-on-year growth of 4%, suggesting that steel consumption in this sector remains robust despite challenges in the real estate market [6]

Group 1 - Wall Street investment banks are adjusting their outlook on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a recession from 35% to 30% over the next twelve months [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1% to 1.25% for this year, indicating cautious optimism about the economy's resilience [1] - A key factor in this shift is the significant reduction in tariff policy uncertainty, supported by recent progress in U.S.-China negotiations [4] Group 2 - The VIX index, which measures market fear, has decreased by 18% from its April peak, and dollar financing costs have fallen to a three-month low, indicating a stabilization in the financial environment [4] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. CPI growth in May was below expectations, suggesting that the impact of previous tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than anticipated [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.95 million, but non-farm payrolls continue to show positive growth [7] Group 3 - Corporate capital expenditures are recovering, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders index expanding for three consecutive months [7] - Retail sales in the U.S. are maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, reflecting consumer resilience [7] - The U.S. housing market is showing unexpected recovery, with new housing starts increasing by 5.7% month-on-month, the highest growth rate of the year [7] Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures easing, inflation risks remain, with concerns that new tariff policies could lead to a resurgence in CPI in the coming months [10] - The increase in import costs due to tariffs on machinery and chemical products is expected to raise intermediate goods prices, while the reshoring of manufacturing may lead to higher domestic production costs [10] - The super core inflation, which excludes housing, remains high at 4.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, influencing Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain a 30% recession probability [10] Group 5 - Market indicators suggest a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the end of a three-week inverted yield curve [10] - However, business leaders remain cautious, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that the economy appears prosperous due to massive fiscal stimulus, while policy uncertainty remains a significant variable [10] - The nearing end of the corporate inventory rebuilding cycle and rising credit card default rates indicate that the economic endurance test is far from over [10]

Group 1 - Spot gold traded around $3,370 per ounce, rising nearly 1% on June 4 due to weak U.S. data and a softening dollar, reaching a high of $3,384.71 [1] - Domestic gold prices reported at ¥781.76 per gram, with a basic gold price of ¥778.1 per gram and retail price for investment gold bars at ¥794.1 per gram [1] Group 2 - Weak U.S. economic data has strengthened the demand for safe-haven assets, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 in May, marking the first drop below the neutral line since June 2024, and the ADP employment increase at only 37,000, the lowest in over two years [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, with the Trump administration doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, is expected to increase inflation concerns and enhance gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to $3,700, emphasizing the combined impact of tariff uncertainty and recession risks [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices closed at $3,372.60, maintaining above the 50-day moving average, with significant resistance at the $3,400 level [7] - Silver prices closed at $34.489, forming a doji pattern, with strong resistance at $34.80 and support from the 20-day moving average [11]

5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，将上调进口钢铝关税至50%。 短短几天内，美国关税政策再度急转弯，而接连三项法院裁决，更是让白宫主导的这场关税博弈愈发失 控。 即便"叫停令"被暂时搁置，案件最终或将递交最高法院裁决。但在这场内部旷日持久的拉锯中，美国政 府想要实现既定目标，恐会越来越难。 据牛津经济研究院估算，本届政府上任前，美国的有效进口关税为2%至3%，而现在为15%左右。若根 据此前美国国际贸易法院的裁决，关税本应降至6%左右，但随后的搁置，又令关税政策再度停滞。 先是，美国国际贸易法院叫停大多数关税措施；接着，美国联邦巡回上诉法院回应政府请求，暂时搁 置"叫停令"；然后，美国一家联邦法院又裁定，总统无权利用"紧急权力"加征关税，裁定对两家公司暂 停执行相关关税。 类似反复，在过去两个月已不止一次上演。 4月初，美国政府宣布征收所谓"对等关税"，转头又主动暂停，声称为谈判创造缓和空间；对欧盟谈判 期间，则先是放话提前终止协商、直接征税，几天后，又"改口"恢复期限。 在关税问题上，混乱似乎成了美国的一种"新常态"。 不少舆论将美国围绕关税的法律诉讼，称作一场"检验总统行政权极限"的攻防战。 美国国际贸易法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling to revoke tariffs may lead to a surge in imports by American companies, potentially widening the trade deficit in the coming months [1] Group 1: Court Ruling and Implications - The court's decision to revoke tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could result in American companies importing goods in large quantities over the next two months [1] - The Trump administration has quickly appealed the ruling, indicating that the case may be taken to the Federal Circuit Court and then to the Supreme Court [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is expected to last for 4 to 8 weeks as the case progresses through the appeals process [1] Group 2: Impact on Trade Deficit - Analysts predict that the influx of imports will significantly increase the U.S. trade deficit for the first half of the year [1]

Core Points - The U.S. President has postponed the planned 50% tariffs on EU products from June 1 to July 9 to allow for negotiations [1][2] - The U.S. originally intended to impose a 20% "reciprocal tariff" on EU imports, but has retained a 10% "baseline tariff" [2][4] - The EU has expressed that the U.S. government's aggressive stance is unacceptable and emphasized the need to maintain their position without escalating the dispute [4][12] Group 1 - The U.S. government's recent threats and subsequent postponement reflect the uncertainty in its tariff policy, which is seen as a negotiation tactic [7][9] - Experts warn that imposing high tariffs could lead to an economic recession in the U.S., with potential impacts on GDP and inflation [9][11] - The current tariffs on EU products include a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on automobiles and steel, which are already significant burdens [11][12] Group 2 - The EU is committed to reaching an agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline [13] - The EU has stated that it will not concede on key issues and is open to cooperation only if the U.S. is willing to negotiate fairly [17]

Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous value, better than the market expectation of 230,000[7] - The weekly Redbook retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, down from the previous 5.8%[11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 1.90%, with a 13-week moving average of 2.35%[13] Market Sentiment - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) had a weekly moving average of 459, influenced by President Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1[18] - The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Greed' zone, closing at 64 points[16] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets saw a weekly decline of 1.4%, with emerging markets down 0.1% and developed markets down 1.6%[22] - Gold prices increased by 5.3% over the week, while Bitcoin rose by 3.8%[22] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.6%, while the tech giants (the "Seven") dropped by 2.8%[23] - Large-cap value stocks outperformed small-cap value stocks, with large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value) down 2.6% and small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) down 3.8%[23] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio (TTM) for the S&P 500 is 26, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5, indicating a valuation percentile of 75.7%[24] - The highest valuation percentiles among the 11 sectors are Real Estate and Information Technology, both around 89%[24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a barbell strategy, balancing investments in gold ETFs (GLD) to hedge against tariff uncertainties and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) for growth potential[3]

Market Overview - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has put pressure on global risk assets, leading to a decline in major stock indices in the US, with the S&P 500 down 2.61% for the week [1] - The US dollar index fell significantly by 1.84%, ending a four-week streak of gains, while non-US currencies strengthened [2] - Gold prices surged approximately 4.83% to $3358.03 per ounce due to increased risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties [2] Stock Market Performance - Major US stock indices experienced collective declines, with the Nasdaq down 2.47% and the Russell 2000 index down 3.47% for the week [1][4] - The technology sector faced significant pressure, with notable declines in stocks such as Apple, which fell 7.57% due to tariff policy uncertainties [1] - European stock indices mostly declined, with the STOXX 600 index down 0.75% and the DAX index down approximately 0.58% [1][4] Commodity Market Insights - The shipping market is witnessing a rapid recovery, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rising 7.2% to 1586.12 points, driven by increased demand for shipping [3] - Oil prices saw slight declines, with WTI crude oil down 0.34% to $61.76 per barrel, amid concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ production increases [2][4] Currency Movements - The British pound and euro both appreciated against the US dollar, with the pound rising 1.96% and the euro increasing by 1.79% for the week [2][4] - The Japanese yen also strengthened, marking a 2.11% increase against the dollar [2][4] Upcoming Events - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes and the April PCE inflation data will be critical for investors assessing US inflation and future interest rate paths [4] - Nvidia is set to release its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report, with analysts expecting a revenue increase of 66% year-over-year to $43.3 billion [5][6]