金十数据5月29日讯，巴克莱分析师表示，在美国国际贸易法院裁定撤销特朗普政府的对等关税和与芬 太尼相关的关税后，美国公司可能会在未来两个月内提前大量进口商品。特朗普政府已迅速对该裁决提 出上诉，这意味着该案件可能会先上诉至联邦巡回上诉法院，然后再到最高法院。这位分析师称："这 很可能意味着在4到8周的时间里，关税政策将处于不确定状态。"该行分析师评论说，美国公司可能会 在最高法院审理之前尽可能多地将商品运入美国。他还补充道，这将导致美国上半年的贸易逆差极大。 巴克莱：法院裁定撤销关税 美企或迎进口潮致贸易逆差扩大 ...

Core Points - The U.S. President has postponed the planned 50% tariffs on EU products from June 1 to July 9 to allow for negotiations [1][2] - The U.S. originally intended to impose a 20% "reciprocal tariff" on EU imports, but has retained a 10% "baseline tariff" [2][4] - The EU has expressed that the U.S. government's aggressive stance is unacceptable and emphasized the need to maintain their position without escalating the dispute [4][12] Group 1 - The U.S. government's recent threats and subsequent postponement reflect the uncertainty in its tariff policy, which is seen as a negotiation tactic [7][9] - Experts warn that imposing high tariffs could lead to an economic recession in the U.S., with potential impacts on GDP and inflation [9][11] - The current tariffs on EU products include a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on automobiles and steel, which are already significant burdens [11][12] Group 2 - The EU is committed to reaching an agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline [13] - The EU has stated that it will not concede on key issues and is open to cooperation only if the U.S. is willing to negotiate fairly [17]

Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous value, better than the market expectation of 230,000[7] - The weekly Redbook retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, down from the previous 5.8%[11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 1.90%, with a 13-week moving average of 2.35%[13] Market Sentiment - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) had a weekly moving average of 459, influenced by President Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1[18] - The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Greed' zone, closing at 64 points[16] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets saw a weekly decline of 1.4%, with emerging markets down 0.1% and developed markets down 1.6%[22] - Gold prices increased by 5.3% over the week, while Bitcoin rose by 3.8%[22] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.6%, while the tech giants (the "Seven") dropped by 2.8%[23] - Large-cap value stocks outperformed small-cap value stocks, with large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value) down 2.6% and small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) down 3.8%[23] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio (TTM) for the S&P 500 is 26, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5, indicating a valuation percentile of 75.7%[24] - The highest valuation percentiles among the 11 sectors are Real Estate and Information Technology, both around 89%[24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a barbell strategy, balancing investments in gold ETFs (GLD) to hedge against tariff uncertainties and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) for growth potential[3]

Market Overview - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has put pressure on global risk assets, leading to a decline in major stock indices in the US, with the S&P 500 down 2.61% for the week [1] - The US dollar index fell significantly by 1.84%, ending a four-week streak of gains, while non-US currencies strengthened [2] - Gold prices surged approximately 4.83% to $3358.03 per ounce due to increased risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties [2] Stock Market Performance - Major US stock indices experienced collective declines, with the Nasdaq down 2.47% and the Russell 2000 index down 3.47% for the week [1][4] - The technology sector faced significant pressure, with notable declines in stocks such as Apple, which fell 7.57% due to tariff policy uncertainties [1] - European stock indices mostly declined, with the STOXX 600 index down 0.75% and the DAX index down approximately 0.58% [1][4] Commodity Market Insights - The shipping market is witnessing a rapid recovery, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rising 7.2% to 1586.12 points, driven by increased demand for shipping [3] - Oil prices saw slight declines, with WTI crude oil down 0.34% to $61.76 per barrel, amid concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ production increases [2][4] Currency Movements - The British pound and euro both appreciated against the US dollar, with the pound rising 1.96% and the euro increasing by 1.79% for the week [2][4] - The Japanese yen also strengthened, marking a 2.11% increase against the dollar [2][4] Upcoming Events - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes and the April PCE inflation data will be critical for investors assessing US inflation and future interest rate paths [4] - Nvidia is set to release its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report, with analysts expecting a revenue increase of 66% year-over-year to $43.3 billion [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies is causing significant concern within the home furnishings industry, impacting both importers and domestic manufacturers reliant on imported components and materials [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Importers - The U.S. imports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of furniture and home goods annually, with over $10 billion in imports recorded in the first quarter of this year [1]. - Increased tariffs have led to rising costs for home brands, forcing them to either pass on costs to consumers or seek alternative markets [1]. - Companies like the Italian lighting and home brand Gaspare Asaro Design are facing a 10% additional tariff on products exported to the U.S., which they must transfer to consumers [1]. Group 2: Effects on Domestic Manufacturers - The trend towards customization in the U.S. home industry is increasing local production, yet many components still rely on imports, making domestic manufacturers vulnerable to tariff impacts [2]. - Companies such as Juniper Design Group report that tariffs affect not only manufacturing but also project costs and overall industry operations [2]. - HBF Textiles, which sources metal parts from Canada and textiles from Europe, is directly impacted by the tariffs imposed by the government [2]. Group 3: Decision-Making Challenges - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is creating a challenging environment for companies to make informed decisions, as highlighted by the CEO of Heller, who emphasizes the detrimental effect of indecision on business [2]. - Companies are closely monitoring policy developments, as seen with LaCava, which imports significant amounts of wood from Canada and components from China [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the Sino-US trade truce boosting the market, with both sides suspending and canceling most tariff measures. Subsequently, the market digested the optimistic sentiment, and there was uncertainty about the tariff policy after 90 days. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, leading to concerns about US stagflation risks and global supply chain disruptions affecting both developed and developing economies, causing downward pressure on exports and economic slowdown. Domestically, in April, the social financing structure favored government bonds, but the negative scissors gap widened, and the central bank's financial incremental policies released positive sentiment. Fundamentally, the spot TC remained at a negative value of -$40, global inventories rebounded from a low level, the Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premium was high, and the near-month B structure of the futures market narrowed [2][7]. - Overall, the market has digested the positive sentiment of the Sino-US truce and is worried that tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, dragging down the global economic growth outlook. Domestically, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut have been implemented, and social financing in April maintained stable growth. Fundamentally, the production capacity of major overseas mines is sustainable, the tight balance cycle of refined copper in China is shifting to marginal relaxation, and social inventories are rebounding from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high-level volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the global trade pattern [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 9 to May 16, LME copper rose by $1.00 to $9440.00 per ton, a 0.01% increase; COMEX copper fell by 6.25 cents to 459.15 cents per pound, a 1.34% decrease; SHFE copper rose by 690 yuan to 78140 yuan per ton, an 0.89% increase; international copper rose by 600 yuan to 69350 yuan per ton, an 0.87% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.21 to 8.28. The LME spot premium dropped by $17.74 to $31.45 per ton, a 36.06% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium increased by 365 yuan to 445 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 16, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 528,663 tons, with a net increase of 5451 tons or 1.04% compared to May 9. Specifically, LME copper inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,375 tons, a 6.47% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 9414 short tons to 169,664 short tons, a 5.87% increase; SHFE inventory increased by 27,437 tons to 108,124 tons, a 34.00% increase; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 71,500 tons, a 20.99% decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino-US economic and trade talks issued a joint statement to relieve pressure on the global economy. Both countries maintained a relatively low tariff of 10%, and the US suspended the additional 24% tariff on China for 90 days. China also suspended or canceled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. The UN report shows that although the global tariff war is easing, tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties continue to disrupt the supply chain, pushing up production costs and slowing down corporate investment. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.4% in 2025. Domestically, China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan at the end of April, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, indicating an improvement in the economic credit structure [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: This week, the spot TC remained at -$43 per ton. The Antamina copper mine in Peru had a temporary shutdown due to a mine accident, and the President of Panama refused to sign a new agreement with First Quantum for the Cobre Panama project, leading to a long - term tight supply at the global mine end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper capacity utilization rate was generally high. In mid - May, imported supplies began to decline, and the blockage at some African ports was resolved. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects started one after another, the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%, driving the operating rate of refined copper rod production back to 75%. The domestic social inventory rebounded to 130,000 tons, and the near - month B structure in the domestic market narrowed after the inventory bottomed out and rebounded [9]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Reports**: Glencore's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 168,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. MMG's copper production (electrolytic copper + copper concentrate) in the first quarter was 118,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76%. MMG raised its 2025 production guidance to 466,000 - 522,000 tons [11][12]. - **Project News**: First Quantum's closed Panama copper mine, if still in operation, would contribute over $1.7 billion to Panama's economy. However, the President of Panama refused to provide a new mining contract [13]. - **Processing Fee**: According to Mysteel research, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China last week rose to 750 - 950 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 200 yuan per ton. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China will continue to recover in late May [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded area inventory, etc., to visually display the market situation of copper [15][18][23].

日本央行审议委员中村豊明：美国关税政策带来更大不确定性，可能对日本构成严重挑战。 ...

近期，中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。美国多家企业迅速启动"抢运模式"，试 图在窗口期内完成补库存。美国桌面游戏出版商斯通迈耶游戏公司就是其中之一。斯通迈耶游戏公司联 合创始人兼总裁斯特格迈尔表示，虽然目前迎来了暂时的"窗口期"，但美国关税政策的不确定性、运输 价格以及库存保障仍是他们面临的最大问题。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The proportion of U.S. stocks held by institutional investors has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and economic concerns, leading many investors to shift their funds to Europe and other regions [1]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Survey Findings - The survey conducted by Bank of America (BofA) from May 2 to May 8 indicates that the net allocation of U.S. stocks has turned negative, with a difference of -38% between investors who are overweight (bullish) and those who are underweight (bearish) [1]. - Among various regions, only Europe saw an increase in asset allocation from institutional investors during this period [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategy - BofA Securities' Chief Japan Equity Strategist, Masashi Sato, noted that the end of U.S. reciprocal tariffs is not yet in sight, and there is a perspective that funds previously concentrated in the U.S. may diversify, making European stocks a target for investors [1].

这种不确定性正持续削弱美国市场信心。Katharine Neiss警告称，即使不考虑政策恶化可能带来的尾部 风险，市场信心疲弱本身就会引致延迟投资决策从而抑制经济增长。投资延滞不仅遏抑当前经济表现， 更严重的情况是，如果其他条件不变，将削弱经济体的未来产能潜力。政策的不确定性，特别是关税的 不确定，也对美国家庭的信心带来影响。历史经验表明，当情绪陷入低迷时，消费水平也会紧随其后下 降。 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在Katharine Neiss看来，市场信心疲弱体现在诸多数据指标当中，比如由于关税上调以及对失业的担 忧，通胀预期会出现变化。失业担忧可能与美国政府效率部（DOGE）的裁员计划有关，据估计，每1 个公共部门工作岗位与私营部门的0.7个工作岗位相关联。因此，尽管DOGE裁员计划对整体就业情况 的直接影响可能相当有限，但其引发的市场情绪所带来的间接影响可能产生更大冲击。即使劳动力市场 自身没有出现显著疲软，但人们对劳动力市场日益增长的担忧也可能导致家庭消费的收缩。 美联储降 息预期是缓解衰退风险的关键变量。 据央视新闻报道，美国商务部日前表示，主要受进口大幅增加等因素拖累，2025年第一季度 ...