Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants are making inventory purchases based on rigid demand. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the downstream delivery has improved in the short term. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be further evaluated. In the medium to long term, under the dual pressure of weakening real estate demand and increasing port inventories, the log spot market still faces challenges [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended that aggressive investors short against the previous high for single - side trading, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options trading [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. The price of 4 - meter medium - A logs in Taicang is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% [5]. - **Supply**: In April 2025, China imported 5.34 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to April, the import volume was 19.245 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [5]. - **Demand**: From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. Last week, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports was 71,600 cubic meters, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Import Cost**: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 108 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: The overall spot prices are stable but weak, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are also generally loose. Aggressive investors can short against the previous high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [6]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India in March 2025 was 2.0025 million cubic meters, an increase of 390,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships was 66, an increase of 8 from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.79% [14]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - In April, the average inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.55 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2,500 cubic meters from the average inventory of 3.5525 million cubic meters in March, a decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the average inventory of radiata pine increased by 30,000 cubic meters, North American timber decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and spruce decreased by 20,000 cubic meters [17]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 national ports remained at 71,600 cubic meters, the same as last week, indicating stable market demand but lack of short - term upward momentum. The daily delivery volume in Shandong decreased by 7.80%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.12% [23]. - As of May 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.95%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% [30]. - In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70% [30]. - In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1060 yuan per cubic meter, remaining unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19% [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan per cubic meter [33]. - The spot price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in both the Shandong and Jiangsu markets is 1670 yuan per cubic meter [33]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the quoted price range of New Zealand's radiata pine in the outer market is 105 - 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, about 7 - 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter lower than in April [40]. - In April 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 spruce logs is 120 euros per JAS cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous month [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log spot price continues to decline, the new round of FOB quotes is lowered, there is still supply pressure in April, and demand support is insufficient. The current futures price is at a neutral - low level with strong cost support, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. Meanwhile, the tariff upgrade during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival has led to weak macro sentiment, and market sentiment disturbances should be watched out for [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price Changes**: On April 3, compared with April 2, the price of log 2507 increased by 1.0 yuan to 829.0 yuan, with a 0.12% increase; log 2509 decreased by 3.0 yuan to 840.0 yuan, a - 0.36% decrease; log 2511 decreased by 3.5 yuan to 845.5 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [2]. - **Spread and Basis Changes**: The 7 - 9 spread increased by 4.0 to - 11.0; the 9 - 11 spread increased by 0.5 to - 5.5; the 7 - 11 spread increased by 4.5 to - 16.5. The 07 contract basis decreased by 1.0 to - 49.0; the 09 contract basis increased by 3.0 to - 60.0; the 11 contract basis increased by 3.5 to - 65.5 [2]. - **Spot Price Changes**: Spot prices at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on April 3 compared with April 2. The FOB price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 6 dollars to 115 dollars per JAS cubic meter, a - 4.96% decrease, while the FOB price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 120 euros per JAS cubic meter [2]. - **Cost Changes**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 to 7.306 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 38.64 yuan to 825.35 yuan, a - 4% decrease [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: As of February 28, port freight volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters compared with December 31, a 50.98% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, an 18.37% increase [2]. Inventory - **Weekly Inventory**: As of March 28, the log inventory in major ports in China was 360 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a - 1.10% decrease. In Shandong, it was 189.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.5 million cubic meters, a - 1.30% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 128.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.0 million cubic meters, a - 2.30% decrease [2][3]. Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of March 28, the average daily log outbound volume in China was 6.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a 4% increase. In Shandong, it was 3.30 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters, a - 2% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 2.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters, a 15% increase [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of logs in the market. It shows that the supply of New Zealand logs is relatively stable, with a certain number of ships departing and arriving in March and April. The demand in some ports has increased slightly, while the overall inventory has decreased slightly. The spot prices of some log varieties have declined, and the shipping and exchange rate factors have also shown certain fluctuations. Section Summaries 1. Overview - **Spot price trends**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 790 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 785 yuan/cubic meter, down 20 yuan/cubic meter from last week. Other varieties also showed different price changes [4]. - **Supply**: As of March 30, there were 51 ships departing from New Zealand in March, 44 of which were bound for China and 7 for South Korea with reduced loads. It is estimated that 1870,000 cubic meters will arrive in March [4][7]. - **Demand and inventory**: As of the week of March 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.39 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.49 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.19 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.5006 billion cubic meters, a slight decrease of 2.76 million cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. - **Other factors**: The Baltic Dry Index fell again this week. As of the week of April 4, the BDI recorded 1489 points, down 113 points (-7.1%) from last week. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the New Zealand dollar also changed [5][56]. 2. Supply - As of March 30, 51 ships departed from New Zealand in March, with 44 going to China and 7 to South Korea with reduced loads. It is estimated that 21 ships will arrive in March and 30 in April, with an expected arrival volume of 1.87 million cubic meters in March. A detailed list of ship schedules is provided [7]. 3. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: As of the week of March 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.39 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.49 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.19 million cubic meters) [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2748 billion cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2.2 million cubic meters, +1.8%), Taicang Port was about 606,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 cubic meters, -0.08%), Xinminzhou was about 329,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 505,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 289,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 140,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports decreased slightly [5][12]. 4. Market Trends - As of April 3, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 829 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.5% from last week. The market continued to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [15]. 5. Price and Spreads - **Spot price**: The prices of various log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets showed different degrees of decline compared with previous periods [19][21]. - **Regional spreads**: The report shows the price spreads of different log varieties between Shandong and Jiangsu regions through charts [22][23][29]. - **Species and specification spreads**: The price spreads between different species and specifications of logs in the Shandong market are presented [41][43][45]. 6. Other - **Shipping and exchange rates**: The Baltic Dry Index fell, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB and the New Zealand dollar changed. The shipping and exchange rate factors are presented in a table [55][56].