Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of the year, the issuance of national bonds reached a record high of 7.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 20,547 million yuan or 35.28% year-on-year, with an average issuance interest rate of 1.52%, down 43 basis points [1] - The average bidding multiple for book-entry national bonds was 3.03 times, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Special bonds for state-owned banks' core tier one capital were issued successfully, totaling 500 billion yuan, completed in four phases from late April to early June [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to complete the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support key projects [3] - The issuance of new local government special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 45% increase year-on-year, playing a positive role in infrastructure and public welfare [3] - The management of special bond usage has shifted from a "positive list" to a "negative list," allowing more projects to apply for funding, excluding only non-revenue projects and certain restricted areas [5] Group 3 - The scope for using special bonds as project capital has expanded from 17 to 22 industries, with 191.7 billion yuan issued for this purpose in the first half of the year, a 16% increase [7] - Policies now allow special bonds to be used for land reserves and to support local governments in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing, promoting a stable real estate market [7]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first half of 2025, total revenue growth for the fiscal accounts was -0.6%, an improvement from -1.3% previously, while total expenditure growth increased to 8.9% from 6.6%[2] - The revenue-expenditure gap reached a new high for 2023, indicating a proactive fiscal approach in the first half of the year[2] Structural Improvements in Revenue - General public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to Q1[5] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth rate of -1.2%, improving from -1.6%[5] - Non-tax revenue growth fell to 3.7%, significantly below the five-year average of 10.8%[5] Land Revenue Recovery - Government fund revenue saw a cumulative growth rate of -2.4%, an improvement from -6.9% in the previous period, primarily driven by a rebound in land sales in June[19] - Local land revenue growth narrowed to -6.5%, compared to -11.9% previously, influenced by increased supply of quality land in core cities[19] Special Bonds and Expenditure Support - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 30% for the second fiscal account, up from 16% previously[23] - A total of 2.16 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds were issued in the first half of 2025, marking a 45% increase year-on-year[23]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 11.56 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with tax revenue decreasing by 1.2% and non-tax revenue increasing by 3.7% [1][3] - The fiscal expenditure for the same period reached 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with central government expenditure growing by 9% and local government expenditure increasing by 2.6% [1][4] Revenue Breakdown - Major tax revenues included domestic value-added tax at 3.64 trillion yuan (up 2.8%), corporate income tax at 2.49 trillion yuan (down 1.9%), and personal income tax at 794.5 billion yuan (up 8%) [3][4] - Export tax rebates amounted to 1.27 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 11.6% [3] Expenditure Analysis - Key expenditure categories included social security and employment at 2.45 trillion yuan (up 9.2%), education at 2.15 trillion yuan (up 5.9%), and health spending at 1.1 trillion yuan (up 4.3%) [4][5] - The government accelerated the issuance and utilization of bond funds, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent on various government bonds, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [5] Debt Issuance - The issuance of national bonds reached 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.28%, marking the highest issuance scale for the same period historically [7] - The average issuance interest rate was 1.52%, down by 43 basis points compared to the previous year [7] Special Bonds and Consumption Support - Special long-term bonds issued totaled 555 billion yuan, with a focus on supporting state-owned banks' core capital [7][9] - The central government allocated 300 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds to support consumption, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [8][9] Local Government Debt Management - The issuance of local special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year, with a portion allocated for existing projects [11] - The implementation of a new policy for special bonds allows for greater flexibility and efficiency in fund issuance and usage [11]

Core Insights - The recent loss of the ruling coalition in Japan's upper house elections shifts market focus towards fiscal policy and political developments [1] - Economists highlight the importance of whether future fiscal expansion plans will require funding beyond surplus tax revenues and other sources, potentially leading to new government bond issuance [1] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance has recently adjusted its government bond issuance plan, making immediate alternatives like bond repurchases difficult [1] - The future trajectory of long-term government bond yields may influence the preparation of supplementary budgets, ultimately constraining large-scale spending plans [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance will issue 60 billion RMB in government bonds in Macau on July 16, marking the fourth consecutive year of such issuances in the region [1] - This issuance is the first RMB bond in Macau since the bond market infrastructure between Hong Kong and Macau was connected, indicating a significant step in regional financial integration [1] - The scale of the bond issuance is a historical high, and the optimized maturity structure is expected to enhance the regular issuance mechanism, supporting the development of Macau's bond market and its economic diversification [1] Group 2 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo will open in Beijing on July 16, featuring 1,200 exhibitors, including 651 domestic and foreign enterprises [2] - The expo will cover six major supply chain sectors: advanced manufacturing, green agriculture, digital technology, healthy living, smart vehicles, and clean energy [2] Group 3 - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games will commence on August 14 in Beijing, with an energy transmission event starting on July 15 at the Badaling Great Wall [4][6] - Eight humanoid robot athletes will participate in the energy transmission activity, showcasing technological innovation and interaction with the public [6][7] - The event will culminate at the National Speed Skating Hall, where all energy cubes will form the "Smart Core," symbolizing collaboration and technological advancement [9][11] Group 4 - The 11th batch of national organized drug centralized procurement has been initiated, including 55 drug varieties, while new drugs will not be included to protect industry innovation [12] - Since 2018, the national level has conducted 10 batches of drug procurement, covering a total of 435 drug varieties [12] Group 5 - The new regulations for individual business registration have been officially implemented, allowing individual businesses to transition to enterprises while retaining their social credit codes and other identifiers, thus reducing the cost of transformation [13] Group 6 - The Barkun Airport in Xinjiang officially commenced operations on July 15, with an annual passenger throughput design capacity of 300,000 and a cargo throughput of 700 tons, enhancing the regional air transport network [14] Group 7 - The flow of the Yellow River at the Lijin hydrological station has receded to 725 cubic meters per second, marking the completion of the 2025 Yellow River water and sediment regulation project, achieving multiple objectives including drought relief and ecological replenishment [15]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has announced the issuance of 11 ultra-long-term special government bonds in the third quarter, with specific issuance dates in July, August, and September [1] Group 1: Issuance Schedule - In July, there will be 3 issues, including the first issuance of a 20-year ultra-long-term special government bond on July 14, which is 10 days earlier than originally planned [1] - In August, there will be 4 issues, including a 50-year bond on August 1, and a 30-year bond on August 8, both of which are part of the revised schedule [1] - In September, there will also be 4 issues, including a 50-year bond on September 10, which is 14 days earlier than the original plan [1] Group 2: Comparison with Previous Issuance - The first issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds this year occurred on April 24, which was significantly earlier than the previous year's first issuance on May 17 [1] - The adjustments in the issuance schedule indicate a proactive approach by the Ministry of Finance to manage government debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 57 government bonds in the third quarter of 2025, including 18 key term bonds, 22 short-term discount bonds, 6 savings bonds, and 11 ultra-long-term bonds [1][8]. Group 1: Key Term Bonds - In July, 4 bonds will be renewed and 2 will be newly issued, while 6 bonds will be issued in both August and September, with 2 being new issues each month [1][2]. - The key term bonds include various maturities, with the first issuance scheduled for July 4 and subsequent issuances on July 11, July 24, August 1, August 6, August 8, August 14, August 20, August 22, September 5, September 10, September 12, September 19, and September 26 [2]. Group 2: Short-term Discount Bonds - A total of 7 short-term discount bonds will be issued in July, including 1 each for 28 days and 63 days, 3 for 91 days, and 2 for 182 days [4][5]. - In August, another 7 short-term bonds will be issued, and 8 will be issued in September, with similar maturity structures [4][5]. Group 3: Savings Bonds - In July, 3-year and 5-year electronic savings bonds will be issued, while in August, 3-year and 5-year certificate savings bonds will be issued [6]. - In September, the issuance will return to 3-year and 5-year electronic savings bonds [6]. Group 4: Ultra-long-term Bonds - A total of 11 ultra-long-term bonds will be issued, with new issues for 20-year and 30-year bonds in July, and renewals for 30-year bonds [7]. - In August, there will be renewals for 50-year, 30-year, and 20-year bonds, along with a new 20-year bond [7].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced the arrangements for the issuance of government bonds in the third quarter of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Japanese Ministry of Finance officials indicate that investors generally agree with the plan for issuing Japanese government bonds [1] - Some investors have requested the Ministry of Finance to continue considering the repurchase of government bonds [1]

智通财经6月19日电，日本将在2025/2026财年将预定的国债销售较最初计划削减5000亿日元至171.8万 亿日元，将20年期和30年期国债的发行量分别削减9000亿日元，分别降至11.1万亿日元和8.7万亿日元。 ...