根据新法律，稳定币发行商被要求用美元或其他高质量流动性资产以一比一的比例为代币提供支持，这 实际上将短期国库券定位为首选抵押品。 在美国债务超过37万亿美元并不断攀升之际，美国国债市场正将Tether和Circle等稳定币发行商视为关 键买家。 最近签署的《GENIUS法案》为该行业建立了指导方针和里程碑式的框架，推动了华尔街对这种与美元 挂钩的数字代币的爆炸性采用。 汇丰银行的分析师早些时候表示，"就特朗普总统让美国成为全球加密货币之都的目标而言，一个监管 良好的稳定币市场可以巩固美元在数字金融世界的主导地位。" 上周二，Tether宣布聘请前白宫加密政策高管博·海因斯（Bo Hines）作为战略顾问，以帮助指导其在美 国的扩张。 尽管发行商的大部分储备是短期美国国债的形式，但该行业尚未被视为国库券市场的主要组成部分。 堪萨斯城联储指出，发行商持有约1250亿美元的国库券，不到6万亿美元未偿国库券总量的2%。相比之 下，保险公司持有的数量大约是其五倍，而最大的私人买家共同基金则持有4.5万亿美元，是其36倍。 2024年，Tether是美国国债的第七大买家，排在英国和新加坡之后。Ark Invest的Lor ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department announced a significant increase in net borrowing for Q3 2025, projecting over $1 trillion, up from the previously expected $554 billion, aligning with Wall Street analysts' forecasts [1][3] - This announcement follows the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 4, which raised the total borrowing limit by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue new debt [3] - As of July 3, government cash reserves were only $313 billion, less than half of the amount from the previous year, highlighting the need for increased borrowing [3] Group 2 - The Treasury expects net borrowing for Q4 2025 to reach $590 billion, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. government's ability to service debt and maintain spending [3] - The upcoming financing announcement from the Treasury will detail the structure of this borrowing, including the timing and distribution of bond issuances, which is anticipated to significantly impact the bond market [3] - There is a general expectation that the Treasury will keep long-term bond issuance stable while increasing short-term Treasury bill sales, which may lead to greater volatility in short-term interest rates [3] Group 3 - The tax cuts implemented during the Trump administration have resulted in reduced federal tax revenues, creating long-term pressure on fiscal income [3] - Although recent increases in tariff revenues have somewhat alleviated this pressure, the sustainability of high tariff income remains uncertain due to changes in international trade agreements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet size is influenced by uncontrollable external factors, and a rough benchmark for "adequate reserves" is set at $2.7 trillion [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve agrees that its balance sheet should be reduced, but it may not need to be cut as drastically as some believe [1] - An adequate reserves system contributes to the stability of the financial system [1] - Paying interest on reserves does not impose a cost burden on the Treasury [1] Group 2 - Once reserves reach adequate levels, the Federal Reserve can increase its holdings of short-term Treasury bills [1] - There is a consideration to shift the structure of the balance sheet towards short-term Treasury bills [1]

Group 1 - The Senate has passed President Trump's $5 trillion debt ceiling increase proposal, but there are concerns about its approval in the House of Representatives [1] - If the U.S. government fails to meet its debt obligations, it could severely undermine investor confidence in the largest bond market globally, potentially halving U.S. Treasury prices and disrupting global financial markets [1] - Market participants believe that the U.S. has the ability to print money to cover any shortfalls, reducing concerns about the political standoff affecting the country's debt repayment capacity [1] Group 2 - As of now, the Treasury Department has sufficient buffer time before the next increase, with the "X date" estimated to be around September 2 by strategist Jay Barry and mid-September by Ian Lyngen [1] - The fiscal account balance currently stands at $304.841 billion, slightly above expectations, providing Congress with more time to negotiate [1] - In June, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 0.191 percentage points due to a general rise in bond prices, although there are still market concerns [2] - Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that the borrowing capacity for U.S. debt may peak in August, earlier than most optimistic forecasts [2] - Foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries has increased from $8.3 trillion last summer to $9.013 trillion, accounting for 31.5% of the total [2]

来源 | 华尔街见闻 美国财政部周一在一份声明中表示，已将本季度的联邦借款预估大幅上调，原因是初始现金储备远低于此前预期，这主要是因为美国国会至今 尚未提高联邦债务上限。 现 金 储 备 减 少 举 债 规 模 上 调 分 析 ： D O G E 出 成 效 ， 实 际 借 款 需 求 下 降 美国财政部目前预计，4月至6月期间的净借款将达到5140亿美元，高于今年2月时预测的1230亿美元。按照惯例，财政部此前在做出预测时假定 债务上限问题会被解决（即提高或暂停），但美国国会至今仍在就此议题进行磋商。 此次借款预估比2025年2月宣布的高出3910亿美元，主要是因为本季度初现金余额更低、预计净现金流入减少，部分被量化紧缩（即国债赎回减 少）带来的600亿美元缓解了压力。 而对于7月至9月的第三季度，美国财政部预计净借款将达到5540亿美元，前提仍是假设季度末现金余额为8500亿美元，并假定债务上限问题能 够解决。 | | | | | Sources and Uses Reconciliation Table | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...