Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 14,275.00 yuan, closing at 14,395.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.27% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures predicts a weak oscillation in natural rubber prices due to favorable weather conditions in domestic production areas and increasing inventory levels in Qingdao [1] - Ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,200 and 14,800 yuan, influenced by varying weather conditions affecting production in different regions [2] - COFCO Futures anticipates a second round of decline in Shanghai rubber prices, as the market focus shifts away from supply despite strong raw material prices in Thailand [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping, but recent weather conditions in Yunnan have delayed production increases [2] - Domestic tire manufacturers are gradually stabilizing production rates, although some companies are reducing output to manage inventory levels [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate of tire manufacturers is recovering, leading to increased warehouse withdrawals in Qingdao, with the outflow rate significantly exceeding the inflow rate [2]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 5.【4月全球轻型车销量同比增长6%至732万辆】据LMC Automotive最新发布的报告显示，2025年4月全球轻型车经季节调整年化销量为9,200万辆/年，维持 了3月的上升势头。从同比数据来看，当月市场再现强劲增势，销量增长6%达732万辆。中美市场均实现强势同比增长，而西欧市场则持续面临挑战。美国市场销 量在3月提前释放，而这股效应依然存在，4月销量受此推动再创佳绩。中国市场方面，受政府刺激措施的推动，销量依旧保持稳定。与中美市场表现形成反差的是， 由于欧盟消费者信心降至过去17个月以来的最低水平，西欧市场销量出现下滑。 Special report on Guot ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market lacked effective drivers, and rubber prices showed a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. Imported rubber market offers declined, and factory procurement was average. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, with the futures market weakening and the spot market following suit. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously, resulting in average market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. In Yunnan, recent rainy weather has delayed the concentrated supply, keeping raw material prices high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and raw material output has increased but is still lower than the same period last year. Local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas supplies arriving at ports have decreased, and the inbound volume of bonded warehouses has declined month - on - month. However, due to weak buying, the outbound volume is insufficient, and bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted at an accelerated pace. Tire companies' capacity utilization is gradually recovering, driving up the提货 volume from Qingdao warehouses. The outbound rate is significantly higher than the inbound rate, and the total inventory of Qingdao spot decreased last week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization of domestic tire companies continued to increase week - on - week. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some companies have slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market lacked effective drivers this week, with rubber prices fluctuating weakly. Imported rubber offers declined, and domestic rubber prices decreased. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. Yunnan's supply is delayed due to rain, while Hainan's output has improved but is still lower than usual. Overseas supplies to ports have decreased, but bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted. Tire companies' capacity utilization is recovering, but some companies may reduce production or conduct maintenance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,200 - 15,000, and the nr2507 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 2.48% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed down 0.43% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the summary part, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [14][18]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 23, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 785 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 23, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 199,540 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 43,544 tons, a decrease of 26,713 tons from last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of May 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **Shanghai Rubber Basis**: As of May 23, the Shanghai rubber basis was 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of May 22, the 20 - rubber basis was 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of May 22, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 62.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lumps was 54.05 (- 0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of May 23, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Price**: As of May 22, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [43]. 3.3.2 Import - In April 2025, China's natural rubber (including various types) imports were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.93% and a year - on - year increase of 41.64%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 24.25% [46]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [49]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of May 22, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a week - on - week increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some have slightly reduced production to control inventory [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, the cumulative tire exports were 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01%. Among them, the export of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.94%. From January to April, the cumulative export of passenger car tires was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.04%. The export of truck and bus tires was 410,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.43% and a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. From January to April, the cumulative export of truck and bus tires was 1.4897 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.45% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In April 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to April this year, the heavy - duty truck market sold about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [58]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber futures market was concentratedly released. The offer price of the imported rubber market moved up, and the trading atmosphere among traders was average. The price of the domestic natural rubber market also increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the spot price followed the upward trend. Sellers held firm on their offers, while downstream buyers made cautious purchases based on their rigid demand, resulting in average actual trading volume in the market [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting the tapping season. Recently, there has been a lot of rainy weather in Yunnan, resulting in low raw material output and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has disrupted tapping work, leading to low output of fresh latex and a tight supply of raw materials in the market. To ensure normal production, some processing plants are competing more aggressively for latex [9]. - Last week, the total inventory of spot rubber in Qingdao continued to increase slightly. A large amount of previously mixed rubber that was converted to standard rubber overseas arrived at the port and was stored in the warehouse. The bonded inventory increased significantly, while downstream enterprises mainly consumed their existing inventory and made cautious purchases, leading to a decline in the overall outbound rate of Qingdao warehouses [9]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week. Most semi-steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire enterprises is in a recovery phase. Some enterprises are facing increased sales pressure, their finished product inventory continues to grow, and orders are insufficient, resulting in overall production scheduling being lower than the pre-holiday average [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,450 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: Futures market sentiment was positive, with prices rising. Spot market prices also increased, but trading was average [9]. - **Supply**: Global production areas are starting tapping. Yunnan and Hainan are affected by weather, resulting in low raw material output and tight supply [9]. - **Inventory**: Qingdao's spot inventory continued to increase slightly, with bonded inventory increasing significantly and overall outbound rate decreasing [9]. - **Demand**: Tire enterprise capacity utilization increased, but sales were slow, and inventory continued to grow. All - steel tire production was below pre - holiday levels [9]. - **Strategy**: Provide short - term price fluctuation ranges for ru2509 and nr2507 contracts [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures increased by 1.95% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber increased by 2.51% [14]. - As of May 16, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [23]. - As of May 16, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai rubber was 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipt of 20 - grade rubber was 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4,435 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - As of May 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - As of May 16, the basis of Shanghai rubber was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - As of May 15, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 174 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of May 15, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 61.75 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 54.15 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg [41]. - As of May 16, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 69 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - As of May 15, the price of latex in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [44]. - **Import** - In March 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 594,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.07% and a year - on - year increase of 20.64%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.6857 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.68% [47]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons, or 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.28 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1 percentage point; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.94 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [51]. - **Downstream** - As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [54]. - In March 2025, China's tire export volume was 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 1.9487 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [58]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared to March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [61]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.

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