1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are stocking up moderately at low prices according to their rigid needs, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of the previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased month - on - month, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 5; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 35; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The holding volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 123,959 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,189; the holding volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 29,787 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,914. The net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 29,217, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the net holding of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,229, with a month - on - month increase of 460. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 46,030 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 500; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57,154 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of Thai RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30; the price of Malaysian RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 685 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,806 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 741 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 54 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 59 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.2; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.2. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.51 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.95 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 13.48% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.55% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.34% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.33% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase rate of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a weak consolidation. Overseas peak production periods will increase supply, exerting more pressure on the market than the sentiment of domestic production areas entering the off - season. Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and the off - season of terminal demand, there is no obvious positive driver in the short - term, and rubber prices may remain slightly weak [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Thailand lifted the emergency state in Songkhla Province as flood conditions improved, but relief and restoration work will continue [5]. - ANRPC predicted that in October 2025, global natural rubber production would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, while consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, production is expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, China's national passenger car market retail volume decreased by 7% year - on - year. From January to October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 3% [7]. 3.2 Price 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices declined, with Japanese rubber dropping the most, followed by NR and RU. On December 5, 2025, compared with November 28, RU2605 decreased by 2.46%, NR2605 by 2.47%, Singapore TSR20:2605 by 1.04%, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 by 5.10% [10][12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 5, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 365 yuan/ton, with a 17.98% week - on - week increase and a 66.51% year - on - year increase. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was - 20 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and an 89.74% year - on - year increase [13]. 3.2.3 Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased. Non - standard basis: Imported rubber market offers declined, and domestic natural rubber spot prices also decreased. The whole - milk to Thai mixed rubber spread was stable, while the 3L to Thai mixed rubber spread widened [18][21][24]. 3.2.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the cost side lacked support. Although the mainstream supply price and market offers increased initially, downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in trading volume and a subsequent drop in offers [31]. 3.2.5 Capital Flow - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, while the settled capital increased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - **Weather**: Thailand's southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, and the northeast had higher - than - normal rainfall and lower - than - normal temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39][41]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Overseas floods receded, and rubber tapping and production resumed in Thailand, leading to a decline in raw material prices. In China, raw materials remained firm during the suspension and production - reduction period [43]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The water - cup spread in Thailand widened, while the spreads of Hainan and Yunnan glue entering concentrated latex plants versus whole - milk plants remained stable [47]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices decreased, processing profits generally recovered [50]. - **Delivery Profits**: Hainan's delivery profits continued to recover, while Yunnan's decreased [55]. - **Exports**: In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased. Indonesia's exports decreased, mainly due to a significant drop in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased, with latex having a relatively large month - on - month increase. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month, but exports to China increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [62][65][68][74][76]. - **Imports**: In October, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 510,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Thai standard rubber imports decreased, while Indonesian standard and mixed rubber imports were at a high level year - on - year, and Cote d'Ivoire's standard rubber imports increased significantly [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises recovered, but overall sales pressure remained high, limiting the increase. Tire inventory days continued to decline [83]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck and passenger car sales increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [86]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In October, road freight turnover decreased month - on - month, while passenger turnover improved [89]. 3.3.3 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory showed a seasonal accumulation trend, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation in Yunnan decreased compared to the previous period, while Vietnamese rubber increased slightly [95]. - **Futures Inventory**: On December 5, 2025, compared with the previous week, natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 9.98%, the spot - futures inventory by 8.54%, 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the INE by 11.79%, and the spot - futures inventory by 9.59% [99]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous period. The inventory continued to accumulate [102]. - **Demand**: The resumption of production in maintenance enterprises drove the recovery of capacity utilization, but overall production and sales pressure limited the release of production capacity [102]. - **View**: The increase in overseas supply during the peak production period will put more pressure on the market, and Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand, rubber prices may remain weak [102]. - **Valuation**: On Friday, the spread between RU and NR main contracts was 3020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract was - 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [102]. - **Strategy**: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or a short - selling strategy when prices are high for RU. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread if inventory accumulation continues. 3) For inter - variety trading, observe [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had significant long - short divergence, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to roll and exchange positions. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after the buying volume decreased due to the positive spread arbitrage. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range following the market. The willingness of holders to quote was average, and the terminal buyers restocked in moderation at low prices, with light actual transactions [8]. - In the near future, raw materials in Yunnan's production areas were mostly stable with relatively sufficient supplies. In Hainan's production areas, the weather was okay, but yellowing and leaf - falling phenomena appeared in the central and eastern regions, which restricted the overall raw material output. Local processing plants faced high production costs and mainly purchased raw materials as needed. Recently, the cumulative inventory increase at Qingdao Port has expanded month - on - month, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remained at a high level, but downstream enterprises were mainly in a wait - and - see mood and had low inventory - building willingness, which led to a large increase in the total inventory at Qingdao Port [8]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance this week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to recover, but some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of this month and the beginning of next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market had long - short divergence this week, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market focused on position rolling and exchanging. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened. The futures market was volatile, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly. The trading volume was light [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw materials were stable, while Hainan's output was restricted. Qingdao Port's inventory increased significantly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance this week, and full - steel tire enterprises resumed work. Next week, the capacity utilization rate will recover but be limited by future maintenance plans [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2601 contract between 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.12%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decrease of 0.08% [11]. - **Spread**: As of November 28th, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [23]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 28th, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 41400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 51307 tons, an increase of 1108 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 27th, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 27th, the 20 - rubber basis was 789 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 27th, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.95 (+0) Thai baht/kg. As of November 28th, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 27 US dollars/ton, compared with 4.5 US dollars/ton last week [44]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 27th, the latex price in Yunnan was 14100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [47]. 3.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [51]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of November 23rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63 tons, or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 7.19 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 39.7 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [54]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 27th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, China's cumulative tire exports were 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 22.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 272.66 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 39.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 402.65 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [60]. - **Domestic Demand**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no information about option market analysis in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reduction and suspension season, and rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam continues to cause disruptions. The upstream raw material prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the cost side still has strong support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments shows a seasonal increase trend, and the inventory accumulation of natural rubber remains unchanged, suppressing spot prices. There are still differences between bulls and bears in the market, and there is a lack of positive drivers [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 996.421 million pieces. China's rubber tire exports from January to October reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [5]. - The Ghana Rubber Processors Association (RUPAG) supports the government's decision to restrict raw rubber exports in the "Revitalization Industry Plan" of the 2026 budget statement. The association plans to increase the country's dry rubber production from the current 100,000 tons to 250,000 tons by 2035 [6]. - The Malaysian government aims to increase natural rubber production to at least 400,000 tons of cup lump rubber and 20,000 tons of latex, which is expected to save 4 billion ringgit by reducing import dependence [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic natural rubber market rose, while the overseas market was divided. SGX TSR20 slightly declined, and JPX RSS3 rose. On November 21, 2025, the closing price of RU2601.SHF was 15,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%; the closing price of NR2601.SHF was 12,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 170.90 cents/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 333.30 yen/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [10][12]. 3.3 Price Spreads - **Base and Monthly Spreads**: The spread between whole - milk rubber and RU01 was - 390 yuan/ton on November 21, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 16.13% and a year - on - year increase of 52.44%. The 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.88% and a year - on - year increase of 68.00% [17]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR and RU - BR spreads increased, while RU - JPX RSS3 and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased. In the non - standard base spread, the import rubber market had trader rotations. At the beginning of the week, the monthly spread of imported mixed rubber was close to par, and holders were active in selling, but the buying sentiment was weak. At the end of the week, arbitrageurs added long positions, and factories replenished stocks cautiously. The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai - mixed rubber and the spread between 3L rubber and Thai - mixed rubber widened [22][25]. - **Substitute Price**: The price of butadiene rubber increased slightly due to good buying at the raw material end and the postponement of the restart of some Korean cracking units. However, due to sufficient supply and good production profits, downstream resistance to price increases is rising, and intermediate trading has weakened significantly [35]. 3.4 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased, and the settled funds decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, and the settled funds also decreased. On November 21, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 46.62, a week - on - week increase of 162.67% and a year - on - year increase of 51.19%; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.75, a week - on - week decrease of 7.98% and a year - on - year increase of 63.92%. The settled funds of RU were 5.075 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 32.27%; the settled funds of NR were 2.212 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23% [38][40]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - **Weather**: In Thailand, the southern region has entered the rainy season with a rapid increase in rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast is seasonally decreasing. In China, the rainy season in Hainan is about to end, and Yunnan is at the end of the rainy season [43][45]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Weather factors have accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, and overseas raw material prices are high, providing strong support for rubber prices. On November 21, 2025, the cup - lump price in Thailand's Songkhla Province was 52.95 baht/kg, and the latex price was 57 baht/kg [47][48]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The spread between latex and cup - lump in Thailand decreased. The spread between the price of latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production in Hainan decreased, while the spread in Yunnan increased [51]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: As raw material prices rise, processing profits generally decline. On November 21, 2025, the theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 741 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 36950.00% [54][56]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profits in Hainan and Yunnan continued to recover. On November 21, 2025, the delivery profit of dry rubber (SCRWF) in Hainan was - 2420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 369.49%; the delivery profit in Yunnan was - 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 5100.00% [59][64]. - **Exports**: In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally. In October 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, but the exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [65][71][75][79]. - **Imports**: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. The imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, while the imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and the imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [82]. 3.5.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Some full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises had maintenance during the period, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The main reasons for maintenance were insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment transformation in some sample enterprises. Both full - steel and semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory this week. On November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97%. The inventory days of full - steel tires were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% [87]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, the exports of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while the exports of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month in October, but the growth rate decreased slightly [88]. - **Road Transport Turnover**: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [92]. 3.5.3 Inventory - **Spot Inventory**: China's natural rubber inventory slightly increased this period, with the dark - colored rubber inventory continuing to increase and the light - colored rubber inventory basically remaining stable, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The sample tire enterprises had a small amount of replenishment of dark - colored rubber, but the overall volume was limited, and the outbound volume in Qingdao decreased by 17%. On November 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.0619 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%; the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 669,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%; the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 392,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [98][101]. - **Futures Inventory**: On November 21, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.00%; the spot - and - futures inventory was 78,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.61%. The futures inventory of 20 -号 rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 50,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.76%; the spot - and - futures inventory was 53,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.18% [103].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Natural Rubber Market Weekly Report [3] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - In the near future, the weather in Yunnan has improved, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. Driven by winter storage demand, concentrated latex factories have raised prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, the weather is fair, but the temperature has dropped, leading to a decline in the dry content of latex. Local processing plants have entered the winter storage phase and continue to offer higher prices for raw materials [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouse is experiencing destocking, while the general trade inventory continues to rise. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level. Factories replenished their stocks earlier, and most of the out - bound goods from the general trade warehouse are for previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and there are few new orders [9]. - In terms of demand, tire companies' orders are insufficient. Some companies have scheduled maintenance, and others are operating at reduced capacity, dragging down the tire production capacity utilization rate. As the production of maintenance companies gradually resumes, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited, and companies will continue to control production [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and winter storage demand has led to price increases for raw materials. In Hainan, the temperature has dropped, and local processing plants are in the winter storage phase. Qingdao Port's total inventory continues to increase, with the bonded warehouse destocking and general trade inventory rising. Tire companies' orders are insufficient, but production capacity utilization may recover slightly next week [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets 4.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16%, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber also closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific position analysis results are provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 21, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 39,600 tons, a decrease of 68,870 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [27]. 4.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 20, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of November 20, the 20 - rubber basis was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 4.3 Industry Situation 4.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 21, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 52.95 (+0.85) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.6 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 20, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. 4.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [47]. 4.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points [50]. 4.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In October 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year and a significant year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas raw material prices are slowing down in their upward trend, and with the external macro - positive news being fully priced in, the rubber price center is adjusting downward. However, in the short term, concentrated rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas affects rubber tapping and output release, and the Yunnan production area in China is transitioning to the production - reduction stage due to a decrease in "dry content", which strongly supports the rubber price from falling. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate around 15,000 yuan/ton [110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In the first three quarters of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year, with a 17.7% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month increase in September [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 26% year - on - year [6]. - Myanmar is implementing a plan to increase rubber yield per acre to over 1,000 pounds, which may increase export revenue by about $1 billion [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic and foreign rubber markets showed a differentiated trend. The domestic NR led the decline, while the foreign market rose slightly. On October 31, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,085 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,240 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 485 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, up 23.62% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 27.27% [18]. - The RU - NR and RU - BR spreads increased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased [22]. - The import rubber market offer rose this week. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly with the market. The downstream maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [25]. - The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and the 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread increased [28]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - The price of the raw material end of substitutes decreased, and the market bearish sentiment increased. The offer of some brands of two - oil butadiene rubber was firm, but the negotiation center of private resources decreased. The supply price of two - oil butadiene rubber was under pressure to decline [35]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased, and the settled funds decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, and the settled funds decreased [38]. 3.6 Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - In the Thai production area, rainfall in the south improved compared with last week, and rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In the domestic production area, rainfall in Hainan increased in the second half of the week, and rainfall in Yunnan decreased seasonally [43][45]. - Affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, raw material release in overseas and domestic production areas was blocked, and raw material procurement prices were high [47]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole milk factory increased [55]. - Due to the increase in raw material prices, processing profits decreased. The delivery profits in Hainan and Yunnan decreased [56][61]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a large year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a large increase in smoked sheet exports [67]. - In September 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, while exports to China decreased month - on - month [73]. - In August 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly [77]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow strongly, and exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [80]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, up 14.41% month - on - month and 20.92% year - on - year [84]. 3.6.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's tire enterprises decreased slightly this week. The inventory of all - steel tires stopped accumulating, and the inventory of semi - steel tires decreased slightly [89]. - In September 2025, exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but all - steel tire exports were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales and passenger - car sales continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month [90]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [93]. 3.6.3 Inventory - This week, the inventory of natural rubber continued to decline in both dark and light varieties, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The inventory reduction in Qingdao slowed down [101]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber in the previous period decreased, while the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber in Shanghai International Energy increased [107]. 3.7 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Overseas raw material prices have slowed down in their upward trend. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [110]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly this week [110]. - View: The rubber price center is expected to adjust downward, but it is strongly supported from falling. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000 yuan/ton [110]. - Strategy: Wait patiently for low - buying opportunities for single - side trading; observe for inter - period, inter - variety trading; consider selling 14,000 put options and building positions in batches for options trading [111].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market had a cluster of positive factors, and rubber prices rose strongly. The import rubber market's offer prices increased, but the factory's inventory - building sentiment was weak. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the upward trend. The downstream purchasing willingness was fairly weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average, with actual transactions being light [9]. - Globally, natural rubber - producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, tapping is normal, and raw material supply is okay. Driven by the strong futures and spot markets, raw material purchase prices remain firm. In Hainan, continuous rainy weather has disrupted tapping operations, with limited fresh latex output and low raw material purchase volume by local rubber processing plants [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are seeing inventory reduction, with the reduction in general - trade warehouses exceeding expectations. After the holiday, tire companies' capacity utilization has recovered, leading to an increase in提货 volume from general - trade warehouses. Coupled with the improved restocking sentiment due to falling rubber prices, the overall warehouse outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume [9]. - In terms of demand, domestic tire companies' production schedules have mostly returned to normal levels this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Semi - steel tire companies' production schedules are mostly stable, and with concentrated snow - tire orders, production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. Full - steel tire companies' shipments are stable, and most companies' production schedules are expected to remain stable, with overall capacity utilization expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,620 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market had positive factors this week, with rubber prices rising strongly. The import rubber market's offer prices increased, but factory inventory - building sentiment was weak. The futures market was strong and volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber - producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has normal tapping and okay raw material supply, while Hainan has limited raw material output due to weather. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization has recovered, and demand is expected to keep overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,620 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: The main contract price of Shanghai - traded rubber futures rose by 4.36% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - numbered rubber futures rose by 2.29% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the changes in the top 20 positions of Shanghai - traded rubber and 20 - numbered rubber [15][17]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 24, the spread between the January and May contracts of Shanghai - traded rubber was - 55, and the spread between the November and December contracts of 20 - numbered rubber was - 15 [23]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 24, Shanghai - traded rubber warehouse receipts were 124,020 tons, a decrease of 10,980 tons from last week; 20 - numbered rubber warehouse receipts were 42,640 tons, an increase of 2,521 tons from last week [28]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - numbered Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of October 23, the basis of 20 - numbered rubber was 818 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of October 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 52.4 (+2.2) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.6 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of October 23, the price of latex in Yunnan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [45]. - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [48]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded - area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general - trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [52]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of October 23, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [55]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw the exhaustion of previous positive factors, leading to a continued decline in rubber prices. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, with traders rotating and restocking, and tire factories making necessary restocks. The futures market maintained a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the downward trend. The enthusiasm of inventory holders to offer prices was average, and downstream restocking was coming to an end, with low inquiry enthusiasm and only moderate restocking at low prices, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the increasing output in the producing areas, combined with the decline in futures and spot prices, has led to a slight weakening of raw material prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has affected tapping operations, with fresh latex output hindered. Due to poor orders and profit margins, local processing factories have limited enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse has continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments have arrived at the port and been concentrated in storage, with the inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Previously, the orders of downstream tire factories were gradually shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels this week to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory, with overall operating rates making small adjustments. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will significantly drag down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's previous positive factors were exhausted, with rubber prices falling. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the futures market was weakly volatile. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the decline. Downstream restocking was ending, and trading was dull [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices weakened slightly, while Hainan's fresh latex output was affected by weather. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate. Tire enterprises' operating rates were slightly adjusted, and some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15150 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.42%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.1% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of September 26, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 15 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 24, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, an increase of 920 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons, an increase of 303 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 24, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 24, the 20 - rubber basis was 847 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.8 (- 0.82) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 24, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Imports**: According to customs data, in August 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Operating Rates**: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain their previous operating levels [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw a decline in prices due to weakened raw material and macro - driving forces. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the spot market for domestic natural rubber also adjusted downward with cautious trading [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is gradually normalizing, while Hainan's production has recovered despite potential typhoon impacts. Qingdao port inventories continue to decline, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations and a slight increase in general trade inventory. Demand from downstream tire enterprises shows mixed performance, with semi - steel tire production having some support and full - steel tire demand lacking improvement [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Raw material and macro - driving forces weakened, causing rubber prices to fall. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the domestic spot market adjusted downward with limited real - order follow - up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is normalizing, and Hainan's production has recovered. Qingdao port inventories are declining, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations. Downstream tire enterprises' capacity utilization may slightly decrease [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The main contract of Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.8% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.03% week - on - week [14]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in summary, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [15][17]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 5, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was 0 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, an increase of 1,980 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a decrease of 2,023 tons from last week [28]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Price**: As of September 18, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 18, the 20 - rubber basis was 706 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand Raw Material Price**: As of September 18, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg, and cup lump was 51.05 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of September 18, the Yunnan latex price was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the Hainan fresh latex price was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [43]. - **Import Quantity**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.95%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [50]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No content related to option market analysis was provided in the report. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Export**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market gradually weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. The offer price of imported rubber rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down compared to the previous week. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for domestic natural rubber significantly increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market warmed up [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, local rainfall has affected tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in new rubber supply [9]. - Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the decline rate has widened compared to the previous period. However, as tire manufacturers' risk - aversion sentiment towards high prices rises, the decline rate of general trade inventory may narrow [9]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased. Most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule next week to stock up inventory around the "National Day" and make up for previous order gaps [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. Imported rubber prices rose and then fell, while domestic rubber trading warmed up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply in Yunnan is increasing, and in Hainan, rainfall affects tapping. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing, but the decline in general trade inventory may narrow. Tire enterprise capacity utilization has increased and is expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,300, and the nr2511 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 3.09% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell by 4.42% [14]. - **Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 [24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, a decrease of 9,290 tons from the previous week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, an increase of 202 tons from the previous week [29]. - **Spot Market** - **Price**: As of September 11, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 11, the 20 - rubber basis was 629 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton from the previous week; the non - standard basis was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [41]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of September 11, the field glue price in Thailand was 56.2 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 (+0.15) Thai baht/kg. As of September 12, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.4 US dollars/ton from the previous week [44]. - **Domestic**: As of September 11, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [47]. - **Import**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [50]. - **Inventory**: As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66% [54]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [58]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [61]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [64]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information about the options market analysis is provided in the report.