Economic Overview - Canada is on the brink of a technical recession, with a projected annualized economic contraction of 1% in Q2, followed by a further decline of 0.1% in Q3 [1][3] - The economic downturn is attributed to escalating trade tensions with the U.S., leading to a sharp decline in exports, rising unemployment, shrinking household consumption, and a cooling real estate market [1][3] Trade Tensions - The intensification of trade tensions is a primary catalyst for Canada's economic issues, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and adopting a protectionist stance since the Trump administration [3][4] - Canadian exports have plummeted by 7.4% due to U.S. importers depleting inventories earlier in the year, although some analysts anticipate a slight recovery in exports [3][4] Labor Market and Consumption - Unemployment is expected to rise to 7.2% in the latter half of the year, a level not seen in recent years, indicating deepening economic decline [3][4] - The tightening labor market is negatively impacting consumer confidence, leading to cautious spending behavior, which is crucial as consumer spending constitutes a significant portion of the economy [3][4] Real Estate Market - The Canadian real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with both housing prices and transaction volumes declining, and a further reduction in housing starts is anticipated [3][4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is currently above the Bank of Canada's target of 2%, with expected inflation rates of 2.1% and 2.2% for Q3 and Q4 respectively, complicating monetary policy decisions [4][6] - The Bank of Canada faces challenges in balancing growth and inflation control amid uncertainties stemming from trade tensions [4][6] Geopolitical Context - Canadian Prime Minister Carney warns of a shift in U.S.-Canada relations, indicating a move away from deep economic integration towards a more complex relationship [6][10] - The changing U.S. stance from a pro-free trade position to one of protectionism poses significant challenges for Canada, which has historically relied on U.S. exports [6][10] Structural Adjustments - Canada must address internal factors contributing to its economic challenges, such as global economic slowdown, technological changes, and an aging population, while also adapting to external trade pressures [7][9] - The government and businesses need to diversify export markets and enhance self-sufficiency in supply chains to reduce reliance on the U.S. [9][10] Future Outlook - The current economic downturn may signal the beginning of a longer-term challenge, necessitating a reevaluation of Canada's economic model and strategies for sustainable growth [10] - The ability to navigate trade tensions and reshape economic development will be crucial for Canada to secure a favorable position in the evolving global economic landscape [10]

Group 1: Russia's Military and Economic Situation - Russia shows little interest in peace negotiations with Ukraine, despite external pressures and potential new military offensives planned for summer [1] - The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) analyst Jack Watling indicates that Russia's military equipment from Soviet times will be depleted by mid-autumn, limiting its ability to replenish losses [1] - Economic and military pressures within Russia, including sanctions on oil exports and military supplies, may eventually force Russia to negotiate [1] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Russia's economy is under severe strain due to international sanctions and domestic pressures, with inflation reaching 10.2% in April and the central bank maintaining high interest rates at 21% [2] - GDP growth in Russia has sharply declined from 4.5% in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1, indicating a potential technical recession [2][3] - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicts GDP growth will drop from 4.3% in 2024 to 2.5% this year, highlighting a loss of economic momentum [3] Group 3: Oil Prices and Revenue Impact - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude at $64.94 per barrel and Urals crude at $59.97, leading to a projected 24% drop in oil and gas revenues for Russia [4] - The Russian Finance Ministry has revised its oil price forecast down from $69.7 to $56 per barrel, increasing the budget deficit expectation from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP [4] - Analysts suggest that continued Western efforts to weaken the Russian economy could lead to a critical decision for Russia regarding the costs of ongoing military engagement [4]

金十数据5月22日讯，RHB Bank首席经济学家兼市场研究主管Barnabas Gan在一份报告中说，新加坡的 GDP增长势头可能进一步减弱，并在今年上半年进入技术衰退。由于全球关税、贸易关系和美国政策的 不确定性的变化，新加坡的经济前景变得更加不确定。由于全球发展难以预测，新加坡的贸易和制造业 可能会面临更多阻力，尤其是从第二季度开始。预计，经季节性因素调整后，新加坡第二季度国内生产 总值将收缩2.4%，而第一季度的降幅为0.6%。 新加坡上半年可能进入技术性衰退 ...

新加坡贸易部官员：可能会出现技术性衰退，但不一定会出现全面衰退。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 关税冲击波的影响还未显现，日本经济就呈现萎缩的态势。 当地时间5月16日，日本内阁府公布，日本2025年一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.2%，按 年率下降0.7%，年均下跌幅度远超市场预期的下降0.2%。这也是日本GDP四个季度以来首次呈现环比 负增长。 影响日本经济下滑的原因是，私人消费停滞和出口下降。具体来看，占日本经济产出一半以上的私人消 费在第一季度持平，而市场预期为环比增长0.1%；当季日本出口环比下降0.6%，但同时进口环比上升 了2.9%。这些因素都拖累了当季经济增长。 美国所谓的"对等关税"仍未实施，日本经济似乎已经失去了海外需求的支持，并凸显经济脆弱性。外界 对日本经济的前景越发不乐观。野村综合研究所首席经济学家木内登英在一份报告中指出，在美国于4 月实施关税措施之前，日本经济已显疲软。木内表示，关税的影响可能在二季度更加凸显。这也意味 着，日本正面临着经济陷入技术性衰退的风险。 美日谈判结果尚未明朗，但日本已不可避免受到汽车关税的负面影响。汽车产业是日本第一大经济支 柱，其产值占日本制造业的50%，总产值占到了日本国内生产总值（GDP）的8 ...

日本经济在过去一年首次萎缩，关税、通胀对日本经济造成双重打击。 第一季度数据显示，外部需求（出口减去进口）削减了0.8个百分点的增长，其中出口下降0.6%，进口 则增长2.9%。 随着美国关税损害作为日本主要增长引擎之一的出口，持续的通胀也在损害另一个引擎：私人消费（约 占GDP的一半）。周五发布的数据显示，第一季度私人支出环比持平。 "持续的价格上涨通过削弱消费者信心，对日本经济构成下行风险，"经济大臣Ryosei Akazawa周五在新 闻发布会上表示。 Akazawa表示，关税担忧尚未影响消费，但这位负责与美国进行贸易谈判的部长承诺，在最近的政府调 查显示消费者情绪可能恶化后，将密切关注消费者情绪。 企业投资成为唯一亮点 据日本政府周五发布的初步数据显示，日本一季度实际GDP环比下降0.2%，这是一年来首次经济收 缩，弱于经济学家预测的0.1%萎缩，也与前一季度0.6%的增长形成鲜明对比，一季度日本经济按年率 计算萎缩0.7%。 这一GDP数据发布之际，市场正担忧美国关税可能通过抑制出口和降低企业投资意愿，危及日本来之不 易的经济复苏。 凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant表示： 由于贸易 ...

金十数据5月16日讯，巴克莱银行在周四晚间发布的一份报告中表示，由于美中贸易紧张局势出现缓和 迹象，美国经济今年陷入衰退的可能性已大幅降低，因此该行上调了对美国经济增长的预测。巴克莱目 前预计，美国经济将在今年增长0.5%，2026年增长1.6%，分别高于此前预测的-0.3%和1.5%。与此同 时，随着不确定性下降和整体经济环境改善，巴克莱也上调了对欧元区的增长预期。目前预计欧元区今 年将实现零增长，好于此前预测的萎缩0.2%。不过，欧元区仍可能在今年下半年出现技术性衰退，只 是衰退幅度将小于之前的预期。"总体而言，我们对欧元区的增长前景依然持谨慎态度，因为当前不确 定性仍然很高，欧美之间关于对等关税的谈判仍停留在技术层面，且尚未出现任何进展迹象。" 巴克莱上调美国及欧元区增长预期 但警告风险犹存 ...

针对关税谈判，日本又有最新表态！ 当地时间周一，日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表 示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日 本消费税税率表示谨慎。截至发稿，美元兑日元上涨2%，至148.31，创4月初以来新高。 日本首相：将进行额外经济刺激 周一，日本首相石破茂在日本国会会议上表示，面对美国提高关税带来的经济压力，日本政府已准备好采取额 外措施，来缓解其对国内经济的影响。 石破茂说，日本政府"将毫不犹豫地采取额外措施"，以缓解美国提高关税给经济带来的痛苦。不过，在被一名 反对党议员问及政府是否会考虑降低食品消费税税率时，石破茂表示，"重要的是帮助受冲击最严重的民众， 而不是采取一刀切的措施。" 石破茂指出，虽然一些国家已经采取了侧重食品的减税措施，但日本的税率相对较低，同时面临快速老龄化社 会带来的财政挑战。他补充道："谈论减税很容易。但如果不在讨论中涉及如何支付日本不断上升的社会福利 和养老金成本这样的困难问题，那就是不负责任的。" 日本的公共债 ...

Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is projected to contract in the first quarter of this year, with economists forecasting a 0.3% annualized decline in GDP adjusted for inflation, marking the first quarterly negative growth in a year [1][4] - The economic contraction raises concerns over the Bank of Japan's policy normalization process and Prime Minister Kishida's prospects ahead of the summer elections [1][5] Contributing Factors - Multiple factors are contributing to the expected GDP decline, including a surprising drop in imports last quarter, which diminished the net export boost, and continued weak consumer spending amid high inflation [5] - Analysts suggest that Japan currently lacks growth drivers, with a significant possibility of consecutive quarters of contraction [5] Trade Negotiations and Policy Implications - The deadlock in US-Japan trade negotiations exacerbates the pressure on policymakers, as any signs of economic weakness could complicate efforts to reach an agreement [7] - The recent data may reinforce the Bank of Japan's cautious stance, with the policy committee delaying the timeline for achieving stable inflation targets by a year and halving growth expectations for the current fiscal year [7][8] Corporate Earnings and Economic Sentiment - Major Japanese corporations are beginning to lower profit forecasts due to tariff impacts, with Toyota predicting a profit decline of about one-third for the current fiscal year [8] - Concerns are growing regarding the sustainability of Japan's "inflation-wage" cycle, as real wages have been declining due to rising living costs, leading to subdued consumer spending [9] Political and Economic Risks - Japan is experiencing a domestic version of stagflation, with insufficient consumer spending to support a moderate recovery [10] - The weak GDP data could trigger a new round of political maneuvering for economic stimulus plans ahead of the summer elections, especially as Prime Minister Kishida's approval ratings have dropped to their lowest since taking office [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market is experiencing a downturn due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with the S&P 500 index down 0.47%, Nasdaq down 0.27%, and Dow Jones down 0.16% over the past week [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the high-level economic talks between China and the US, with recent meetings indicating a continued stance against excessive tariffs from the US [1][2] - The US economy is showing signs of strain, with a contraction in Q1 GDP and a potential technical recession if uncertainties persist [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US labor market is cooling, and consumer confidence has dropped to 52.2, with inflation expectations rising from 5.0% to 6.5% for the next year [2] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, with concerns that tariffs could lead to rising unemployment and inflation [3] - Upcoming economic data, including April CPI and retail sales, are critical for assessing the risk of stagflation, which could pressure the stock market [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Large-cap stocks are viewed as more defensive compared to small-cap stocks in the current economic cycle, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality companies with low debt and stable earnings [7] - There is a significant risk of a further decline in the US stock market, with estimates suggesting a potential drop of nearly 20% due to economic recession concerns [7] - Recent capital flows indicate a shift away from US equities, with $8.9 billion exiting the market while European and Japanese markets saw inflows [6]