Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - **PDH**: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - **Alkylation**: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - **Shandong**: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - **East China**: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - **South China**: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term PG futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - From May 8 - 14, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: domestic civil gas in Shandong decreased by 30 to 4670, in East China remained stable at 4931, and in South China decreased by 20 to 5000; imported gas in East China decreased by 24 to 5066, and in South China remained stable at 5080; ether - post carbon four remained stable at 4690. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4670. The PG futures price fluctuated, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 314, and the 06 - 07 spread weakened to 86. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Market Conditions Last Week - The domestic civil gas market was weak last week. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four moved down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures price center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened [1] Fundamental Data - The LPG commodity volume was 485,500 tons (-1.06%), and the external supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks; the PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market Conditions - CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, FEI - MB rose slightly, and FEI - CP and CP - MB changed little. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventories were basically flat, exports increased, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. The CP official price is expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes (May 1 - 2, 2025) - In the civil gas market, prices in Shandong decreased by 80 to 4700, in East China by 5 to 4933, and in South China by 70 to 5020. Imported gas prices in East China dropped by 31 to 5105, and in South China by 20 to 5090. The price of ether - post carbon four decreased by 90 to 4710. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4700. The PG futures market was weak, with the basis of the 06 contract at 341 and the 06 - 07 spread slightly weakening to 97. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] Weekly Changes - The domestic civil gas market was weak last week. Prices in South China rose and then fell, those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly, and the center of ether - post carbon four prices moved down significantly. The price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures market center moved down slightly, the 06 basis fluctuated, and the 06 - 07 spread strengthened [1] - Fundamentally, high arrivals led to significant port inventory accumulation. After the holiday, downstream replenishment was average, and factory inventories increased slightly. The LPG commodity volume was 48.55 tons (-1.06%), and external supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks. The PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to increase slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] - In the international market, CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, with FEI - MB rising slightly and FEI - CP, CP - MB changing little. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventories were basically flat, exports increased, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed. OPEC+ reduced production cuts, and PG supply is expected to increase. CP official prices are expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Conditions - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4780, in East China at 4938, and in South China dropped 50 to 5130; for imported LPG, prices in East China decreased 7 to 5136, and in South China decreased 60 to 5140; the price of ether - post carbon four rose 10 to 4810. The lowest price was Shandong civil LPG at 4780. The PG futures market fluctuated weakly, with the basis of the 06 contract at 433 and the 06 - 07 spread at 104. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1] - Last week, the domestic civil LPG market was weak. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four prices moved down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures market center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened [1] Supply and Demand - The LPG commodity volume was 48.55 tons (-1.06%), and the external supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks. The PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and production margins turned profitable, with a small expected increase in operating rate. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market - CP and FEI prices rose slightly, while MB prices remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, with a slight increase in FEI - MB, and little change in FEI - CP and CP - MB. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventories were basically flat, exports increased, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. CP official prices are expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is affected by market sentiment and demand changes. The current fundamentals are weak, with supply pressure increasing as the daily production exceeds 200,000 tons, and demand showing marginal weakness. The market may experience a phased rebound when agricultural demand picks up, but there are risks of market fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea main contract opened and closed lower on the day, and the spot market was affected by the futures market. After the pre - holiday pre - order transactions were completed, the subsequent transactions stagnated due to the futures decline. The fundamentals remained weak, with the supply side having an increased start - up rate and some factories planning to resume production after the May Day holiday. The demand side saw improved transactions after the futures rebounded yesterday, but with the holiday stocking almost over and the decline of the futures today, it is expected that tomorrow's transactions will be weak. Some agricultural dealers started low - price stocking, but the demand from compound fertilizer factories was the main factor. The raw material urea inventory in factories was not under great pressure, and the start - up load declined. The summer fertilizer demand after the holiday would have limited incremental demand for urea. Agricultural demand was expected to relieve supply pressure in May [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened and closed lower at 1770 yuan/ton and finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.09%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 210,028 lots (+4,562 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 3,932 lots and short positions increased by 2,427 lots. Specifically, CITIC Futures' net long positions increased by 7,884 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 2,770 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 7,064 lots, and Galaxy Futures' net short positions decreased by 3,971 lots [2] - **Spot**: On April 29, 2025, the urea warehouse receipt quantity was 4,999, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market transactions improved due to the futures rebound yesterday, but then stagnated. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,750 - 1,780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,680 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of large - particle urea was mostly 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton, and local factories had good order receipts yesterday [3][5] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis widened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 85 yuan/ton (+66 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On April 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,600 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the start - up rate was 87.28% [10]