Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for the East China LPG market is expected to remain stable, with a possible slight decline in local transaction prices. The internal basis of the LPG market is still weak, and the downside risk for the civil LPG market during pre - holiday inventory clearance is limited due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG. The 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The external market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical factors and cold snaps are key factors that need continuous attention [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Situation - The March - April spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at - 275 (+22) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 89 (-2). Warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The East China market was generally stable, with mainstream transactions ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan per ton. Market transportation capacity is gradually decreasing, and refineries are mainly focused on stabilizing inventory before the holiday, with a cautious attitude and limited willingness to adjust prices [1] Weekly Situation - The futures price fluctuated downward this week, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to - 71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), the 3 - 4 month spread was - 303 (-9), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1,000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4,150 (+30). The monthly spread of overseas paper goods increased, and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates increased. The discount changed significantly due to contract roll - over, but the actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPI spread widened to - 44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, and the number of incoming vessels decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct), and Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increasing their loads. Yantai Wanhua Phase II is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature has slightly warmed up, it is still low, and the rigid demand for combustion is fair. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end. It is expected that transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will focus on inventory clearance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on short - term observation [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall decline of the energy sector was due to the ebb of previous driving factors, including the rebound of the US dollar index and the marginal easing of the Iranian situation. The external propane - butane and PG futures followed the decline [1]. - The relatively weak trend of the PG market was due to the high raw material cost suppressing downstream profit and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas. The warehouse receipt and delivery game also brought disturbances. The future trend depends on the Iranian situation, and the LPG market is expected to have an oversupply if the situation eases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 2, regional prices in different markets were as follows: Shandong 4450 - 4520 yuan/ton, Northeast 3840 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China 4200 - 4530 yuan/ton, East China 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River Basin 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton, Northwest 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, South China 4800 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China decreased by 25 and 20 dollars/ton respectively. The RMB - converted prices decreased by 196 yuan/ton. In South China, propane decreased by 25 dollars/ton and butane by 25 dollars/ton, with RMB - converted prices down 196 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Fundamental and Market Structure - Overseas supply tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia raised the February CP. However, the high raw material cost suppressed downstream profit, and the price inversion and warehouse - receipt issues affected the PG market. The Iranian situation is a key factor for future trends [2]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, with short - term observation as the main approach. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the energy sector has risen as a whole. The PG market has continued to fluctuate strongly, with a firm performance in the external market and continued increases in domestic spot prices. The previously weak ether - post carbon four has also been driven up by the crude oil end. Recently, the LPG market shows a pattern of "strong outside and weak inside", with a marginal tightening of overseas supply and an intensifying geopolitical situation. However, the price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas exerts additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disturbances to the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet still anticipates an oversupply, with limited internal drivers in the market. Potential upward risks come from the geopolitical level. If the conflict in the Middle East further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, so continuous attention to the situation development is needed [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 14, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150 yuan; North China market, 4200 - 4430 yuan; East China market, 4350 - 4550 yuan; Yangtze River market, 4750 - 5080 yuan; Northwest market, 4200 - 4400 yuan; South China market, 4990 - 5100 yuan [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 607 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4647 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China was 599 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 594 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4624 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and butane was 4585 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the market fluctuates strongly. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Chlor-alkali Industry**: The PVC market is facing significant challenges due to weak real estate demand and export uncertainties. As of mid-October, the profit from externally sourced calcium carbide for PVC has further declined, reaching below negative 300 yuan, and expanding to a range of negative 350 to 400 yuan [1][3]. - **Soda Ash**: The industry is expected to see new capacity coming online in 2025, maintaining supply pressure. Soda ash prices have slightly decreased to around 2,450 yuan, with ECU profits falling to the range of 200 to 300 yuan, which is an improvement compared to August and September [1][6]. Key Points on PVC Market - **Capacity and Production**: By 2025, PVC capacity is projected to reach 33.94 million tons, with an increase of 2.6 million tons, marking an 8.3% growth, the highest in nearly a decade. However, weak real estate demand and export uncertainties are expected to keep the market fundamentals weak [2][4]. - **Inventory Levels**: PVC inventory levels are significantly higher than in previous years, with the latest inventory at 505,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%. High inventory is attributed to new capacity, reduced maintenance, and insufficient demand [5]. - **Export Outlook**: The export volume is expected to slightly decline in Q4 compared to Q3 due to the Indian anti-dumping policy being a core variable. However, the recent removal of BS certification requirements for PVC by India may reduce export volatility [4]. Key Points on Soda Ash Market - **Production and Supply**: The soda ash industry plans to add 1.5 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. Current production is stable, with weekly output maintaining around 80,000 tons [6][8]. - **Export Performance**: From January to September 2025, soda ash exports reached approximately 3.098 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 46%, primarily to the overseas alumina industry [10]. - **Domestic Demand**: The domestic alumina industry maintains a high operating rate, supporting strong demand for soda ash. The textile and dyeing industry has also seen a recovery, contributing to stable soda ash demand [11][12]. LPG Market Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: In November, delays in port operations reduced LPG imports, but increased pressure is expected in late November. The PDH units' maintenance has led to a temporary decline in demand, but a recovery is anticipated in December [14][15]. - **Import Trends**: Domestic LPG production is expected to be around 40 million tons, with net imports of 19.4 million tons, accounting for 48% of total supply. The impact of U.S. tariffs has significantly reduced the share of U.S. LPG imports [15]. Natural Rubber Market Overview - **Price Stability**: Natural rubber prices have stabilized between 15,000 and 15,500 yuan. Despite concerns about inventory accumulation, current absolute inventory levels are not high, and no significant accumulation has been observed [24][25]. - **Demand Growth**: From January to September, natural rubber imports increased by 20%, indicating strong consumption. The total inventory levels are similar to last year, suggesting that the increased imports have been absorbed by the market [29]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently dominated by short positions, with significant short interest remaining. However, the absence of strong long positions indicates a potential for price volatility [34][36]. Conclusion - The chlor-alkali and natural rubber markets are facing various challenges, including high inventory levels and weak demand. The soda ash market shows some resilience due to strong domestic demand, while the LPG market is adjusting to supply chain pressures. Overall, careful monitoring of export policies and domestic demand trends will be crucial for future market performance.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG's main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news disturbances. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped sharply. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was at 4345 (-39), and South China was at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. The external market prices tumbled; the FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to propylene decreased. Inventory pressure was high, and short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand, and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis turned negative after a sharp drop, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - On 2025/10/17 compared with the previous day, the daily changes were as follows: South China LPG was -40, East China LPG was -24, Shandong LPG was -80, propane CFR South China was -5, propane CIF Japan was -13, CP forecast contract price was -5, Shandong ether - after carbon four was -40, Shandong alkylated oil was -30, and the main basis was -21. On Friday, civil gas prices dropped, with East China at 4345 (-24), Shandong at 4200 (-80), and South China at 4460 (-40). Ether - after carbon four was at 4420 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -20 (-32), and the November - December spread was 137 (+7). FEI and CP dropped to 469 (-5) and 447 (-5) dollars/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250), East China at 4345 (-39), and South China at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. External prices dropped significantly; FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price differences changed: PG - CP reached 132 (+27), PG - FEI reached 112 (+14), FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. CP propane and butane arrival discounts in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, US Gulf - Japan was 108 (-18), Middle East - Far East was 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open at -71 (-12). PDH to propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Despite large spot supply pressure and a sharp drop in the PG basis turning negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The PG main contract oscillated strongly, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the Oct-Nov spread was 49 (-20), and the Nov-Dec spread was 62 (+3). The external market prices rose, the internal-external price difference decreased slightly, and the US-Asia arbitrage window closed. Freight rates continued to rise, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened. The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. Inbound shipments decreased, external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand declined, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). Shandong is the most cost-effective delivery location, with sufficient supply from inbound resources and declining chemical demand. The overall market is expected to remain weak [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Data - **Price Changes**: On 2025/09/15, compared with the previous day, the prices of LPG in East China decreased by 3 to 4504, in Shandong increased by 30 to 4530, and in South China decreased by 10 to 4540. The price of etherified C4 increased by 30 to 4790. The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The internal market rose significantly, with the basis at 15 (-66) and the Oct-Nov spread at 51 (+2). FEI and CP were 558 (+8) and 550 (+4) dollars per ton respectively, with the FEI monthly spread unchanged at -4 and the CP monthly spread unchanged at -10. The arrival cost decreased slightly, with the October arrival prices of propane in East China and South China at 4707 and 4652 respectively [1]. Weekly View - **Contract Performance**: The PG main contract oscillated strongly, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the Oct-Nov spread was 49 (-20), and the Nov-Dec spread was 62 (+3). There were 13002 (-6) warehouse receipts, with 1 less from Shanghai Yuchi and 5 less from Donghua [1]. - **External Market**: External market prices rose. The FEI monthly spread increased by 1, the MB monthly spread remained unchanged, and the CP monthly spread decreased by 2.5. The internal-external price difference decreased slightly, with PG-CP at 75 (-3), PG-FEI at 67.6 (-9.3), and FEI-CP at 7.5 (+6.5). The US-Asia arbitrage window closed. The AFEI discount was -6.5 (+3), and the CP South China arrival discount was 43 (+0). Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI-MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - **Profit and Demand**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. Inbound shipments decreased, external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand declined, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Shandong is the most cost-effective delivery location, with sufficient supply from inbound resources and declining chemical demand. The overall market is expected to remain weak [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The burning season is gradually ending, but demand remains weak. The cheapest delivery location is in East China, where supply is expected to be tight, demand to improve, and import costs to rise, leading to an overall stable and upward trend [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7) [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Price and Spread Changes - On September 3, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: South China LPG -20, East China LPG 0, Shandong LPG +20, propane CFR South China +2, propane CIF Japan +7, MB propane spot 0, CP forecast contract price +2, Shandong alkylated oil +20, and paper import profit -38, with the main basis -15 [1]. - The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI, CP monthly spreads fluctuate, MB monthly spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external spread fluctuates, PG - CP reaches 106, PG - FEI reaches 85, FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and closes [1]. - FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventories are being depleted, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and refinery inventories increase but are generally controllable [1]. - PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), with Wanhua Phase II under maintenance and Quanzhou Guoheng restarting at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. Alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0) [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda -55, Wuzhongda -65, and Donghua +440 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for LPG, indicating that the expected price fluctuation is within plus or minus one standard deviation [4]. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of LPG continues, and the cracking spread is running weakly. The internal market commodity sentiment has weakened, and the decline in coal prices has dragged down olefin prices, causing PG to follow suit. The impact of oil prices on the PG market has weakened recently. The pressure of associated gas in the US and the Middle East continues to suppress the overseas market. Although the US propane production has declined slightly, it remains at a high level. The operating rate of domestic refineries has slightly decreased, while the operating rate of major refineries remains at a high level for the same period. The supply pressure is difficult to refute. Overall, the current supply of PG is relatively loose. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cracking spread will run weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG: Weekly View - **Supply**: Domestic major refineries have an operating rate of 81.55% (a month - on - month increase of 0.34%), independent refineries have an operating rate of 56.85% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%), the commercial volume of LPG is 52.65 tons (a 0.3% increase), the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons (a 0.3% decrease), and the arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons (a 65.3% increase). Overseas, the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels per day (a 1.7% decrease) [4]. - **Demand**: In the domestic market, the price of gasoline in Shandong is 7799 yuan/ton (a 0.3% decrease), the cracking spread of Shandong gasoline against Brent is 10.16 dollars/barrel (a 22.3% decrease). The operating rate of MTBE is 65.89% (a 4.6% decrease), the operating rate of alkylated oil is 46.5614% (a 0.4% increase), and the operating rate of PDH plants is 72.63% (a 0.7% decrease). Overseas, the US propane exports this week are 1629 thousand barrels per day (a 22.2% decrease), and the inventory is 83477 thousand barrels (a 1.4% increase) [4]. - **Valuation**: The price of civil gas in Shandong is 4550 yuan/ton (a 1.5% decrease), and the price of ether - after C4 in Shandong is 4580 yuan/ton (a 3.4% decrease). Brent is at 71.27 dollars/barrel (a 4.1% increase), the CP price is 534.31 dollars/ton (a 1.9% increase), the MB price is 400.7 dollars/ton (a 2.6% increase), and the FEI price is 547.31 dollars/ton (a 2.8% increase) [4]. - **Basis**: The main basis of civil gas in Shandong is 340 yuan/ton (a 3% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is 18.08 tons (a 1.9% decrease), the port inventory is 313.44 tons (a 3.1% increase), and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary LPG stations is 60.33% (a 0.3% decrease) [4]. LPG: Price - Volume Performance - **Futures and Paper - Futures Prices**: As of August 1, the main LPG contract is at 3965 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 82 yuan/ton (- 2%); the FEI first - line contract is at 547.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 14.92 dollars/ton (2.8%); the CP first - line contract is at 534.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.9 dollars/ton (1.9%); the MB first - line contract is at 379.3 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.5 dollars/ton (2.6%) [8]. - **Cracking Spreads**: The first - line LPG cracking spread is - 209.1701 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 21.5916 yuan/barrel (- 11.5107%). The MB propane first - line cracking spread is - 38.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 3 dollars/barrel (- 8.4%); the CP propane first - line cracking spread is - 28.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2 dollars/barrel (- 7.8%); the FEI propane first - line cracking spread is - 27.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 1.6 dollars/barrel (- 6.4%); the NWE propane first - line cracking spread is - 33.73 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/barrel (- 8.9%) [8][13]. - **Other Spreads**: As of August 1, the PP - 1.2*PG main contract spread is 2340 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 24.6 yuan/ton (- 1%); the MOPJ naphtha and Cash Diff cracking spread is - 3.43 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of 0.1 dollars/barrel (3.1%); the MOPJ naphtha is at 596.25 dollars/ton, and the PN spread is - 48.94 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/ton (- 6%). The PG - FEI first - line spread is 16.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 220.8384 yuan/ton (- 93.0746%); the PG - CP first - line spread is 110.2 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 184.2971 yuan/ton (- 62.5759%) [19][28]. - **Freight and Related Data**: As of July 31, the freight from the Middle East to Japan is 85 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0.3 dollars/ton (0.4%); the freight from the US Gulf to Flushing is 76.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 1.5 dollars/ton (- 1.9%); the freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 137.667 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 3.4 dollars/ton (- 2.4%). The Panama water level is 86.3 feet, with a weekly change of - 0.1 feet (- 0.1%). The number of ships waiting to pass through the Panama Neopanamax lock is 25, with a weekly increase of 3 (13.6%); the number of ships waiting to pass through the Panamax Plus lock is 41, with a weekly increase of 13 (46.4%); the total is 66, with a weekly increase of 16 (32%) [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of the week of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Chinese LPG futures are 48975 lots, with a change of 955 lots (1.9888%) from last week. In July, the delivery volume of Chinese LPG futures is 1783 lots, with a change of + 1391 lots (+ 354.85%) from last month [34]. LPG: Supply - Demand Progress - **Supply**: In the week of July 1, the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.29%) from last week. The commercial volume of Chinese LPG is 52.65 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons (+ 0.3%) from last week. The weekly arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons, an increase of 32 tons (+ 65.31%) from last week [40]. - **Demand**: - **MTBE**: As of August 1, the MTBE market price is 5040 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.7%); the MTBE plant profit is - 94 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 2.3 yuan/ton (2.3%); the MTBE plant operating rate is 65.89%, with a weekly change of - 3.2% (- 4.63%) [44]. - **Alkylated Oil**: As of August 1, the alkylated oil market price is 7899 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 37 yuan/ton (- 0.5%); the alkylated oil plant profit is - 3.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 125.93%); the alkylated oil plant operating rate is 46.5614%, with a weekly change of + 0.2% (+ 0.43%) [48]. - **PDH**: As of August 1, the MTO - made propylene profit is - 737.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 157.8 yuan/ton (+ 27.22%) from last week; the naphtha - made propylene profit is - 86.6 dollars/ton, a change of - 15.2 dollars/ton (+ 21.29%) from last week; the PDH - made propylene profit is - 454.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 9.6 yuan/ton (+ 2.16%) from last week. The PDH plant operating rate is 72.63%, with a change of - 0.5% (- 0.68%) from last week [55]. - **Inventory**: - **Refinery Inventory**: As of August 1, the Chinese refinery inventory is 18.08 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons (- 1.9%) from last week. The Shandong refinery inventory is 1.6 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons (+ 4.58%) from last week; the East China refinery inventory is 2.63 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons (- 12.91%) from last week; the South China refinery inventory is 2.58 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons (+ 0.39%) from last week [59]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory remains at a high level [61]. - **Downstream Storage Capacity Utilization Rate**: The downstream storage capacity utilization rate shows differentiation but remains relatively stable overall [64]. - **US Situation**: As of July 25, the US propane inventory is 83477 thousand barrels, an increase of 1150 thousand barrels (+ 1.4%) from last week; the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels, a decrease of 49 thousand barrels (- 1.71%) from last week; the US propane exports are 1629 thousand barrels, a decrease of 466 thousand barrels (- 22.24%) from last week; the 4 - week average of US implied demand is 875 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 130 thousand barrels per day (+ 17.45%) from last week [69]. - **Monthly Data**: In July, the monthly production of Chinese LPG is 440 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.7199%), and from January to July 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese LPG is 3065.2 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.6271%). In June, the monthly import volume of Chinese LPG is 267.4 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 21.1%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of Chinese LPG is 1767 tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.5%). In June, the monthly export volume of Chinese LPG is 8.8 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese LPG is 54.5 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.8%). In June, the monthly apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 694.5 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 4337.6 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%) [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate. Currently, prices have fallen to relatively low levels, with high chemical demand, but high temperatures and weak terminal demand will limit subsequent price increases. Domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates are expected to increase slightly, and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise due to partial device restart plans. Different regional markets have different trends: the Shandong market is expected to fluctuate, the East China market is expected to remain weak, and the South China market will continue to be dragged down by weak terminal demand [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Changes - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4494. FEI and CP increased, CP discount was basically flat, PP strengthened, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP worsened. The PG futures price strengthened, and the monthly spread increased, with the latest 08 - 09 spread at 104. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened. The daily changes showed that prices of some items remained unchanged, while some such as MB propane increased. The basis changed little, and the 8 - 9 monthly spread strengthened slightly. The import cost decreased significantly, and the external monthly spread weakened sharply, with the oil - gas ratio rising [1]. Weekly View - In terms of fundamentals, the PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05 pct) but the profit improved, and it is expected to increase slightly. The alkylation operating rate remained flat and is expected to rise due to partial device restart plans. The Shandong civil gas price first fell and then rose. The domestic gas supply is at a low level, arrivals are abundant, combustion demand is weak, and chemical demand provides support, so it is expected to fluctuate. The East China civil gas price declined, and the market is expected to remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season. The South China civil gas price oscillated downward due to falling import costs and weak combustion demand, and weak terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].