Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the CSI 500 USD Hedged Index, highlighting its recent growth and the methodology behind its construction [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 500 USD Hedged Index reported a value of 5456.48 points, with a decrease of 0.37% in the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. - Over the past month, the CSI 500 USD Hedged Index has increased by 5.47%, and it has risen by 11.37% over the last three months [1]. - Year-to-date, the index has shown a growth of 10.18% [1]. Group 2: Index Methodology - The CSI 500 USD Hedged Index simulates an investment strategy where investors use USD to invest in the index while hedging against exchange rate risks through one-month forward contracts of USD to offshore RMB [1]. - The forward contracts are rolled over automatically at the end of each month, and the index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2010, with a base point of 4936.716 [1]. - The index is not subject to adjustments, maintaining its structure and methodology consistently [1].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and continued to decline, with the Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index reported at 2489.59 points [1] - The Shanghai 50 USD Hedged Index has increased by 4.19% over the past month, 7.88% over the past three months, and 6.42% year-to-date [2] - The index simulates an investment strategy for investors using USD to invest in the underlying index while hedging exchange rate risks through a long position in one-month forward contracts of USD against offshore RMB, with contracts rolled over at the end of each month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current bank gold bar prices are closely linked to the global macro environment, with prices around 770 RMB per gram as of May 20, 2025, reflecting both financial and commodity attributes of physical gold [7]. Group 1: Bank Gold Bar Prices - The price of gold bars varies among banks, with the Agricultural Bank of China offering the highest price at 770.90 RMB per gram, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offers the lowest at 763.2 RMB per gram [4][5]. - Investment gold bar prices are typically based on the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 gold price, with an additional handling fee of 10 to 20 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The London gold price is at 2120 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold AU9999 main contract is priced at 478.5 RMB per gram, indicating a premium for craftsmanship gold bars of about 4.5% [7]. - The strong performance of the RMB has not led to a decrease in domestic gold bar prices, highlighting a contradiction where geopolitical risks in the Middle East increase demand for safe-haven assets [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should consider three key factors: currency hedging to mitigate single currency risk, the current low volatility of gold, and the cultural attributes of craftsmanship gold bars as a new choice for wealth inheritance [9]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation is increasing among domestic residents, with a reported 22% increase in transaction volume for the Industrial and Commercial Bank's gold bars [7].

Group 1 - The event is not limited to Taiwan, as a significant portion of overseas investors' assets in the US remain unhedged against currency fluctuations [2][4] - The Japanese yen depreciated against the US dollar, reaching approximately 146.10 yen per dollar, marking a one-month low [2] - The US and UK have signed a trade agreement, alleviating concerns over high tariff policies, which has led to a recovery in the dollar index to around 100 [2] Group 2 - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated approximately 10% against the US dollar on May 2 and May 5, with the latter date marking the highest increase in 37 years [3] - Speculation arose that Taiwan agreed to currency appreciation in US tariff negotiations, leading to record-high export levels [3] - Investors who had not hedged against currency risk began to sell US assets or engage in hedging transactions due to the sudden market expectations of a stronger TWD [3] Group 3 - The CIO warned of structural issues related to over-concentration in US assets and insufficient currency hedging, which have become critical concerns [4] - Concerns over unpredictable US trade policies are causing overseas investors to feel uneasy, potentially leading to capital outflows from the US [4]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant portion of overseas investors' assets in the US that remain unhedged against currency fluctuations, leading to structural problems that cannot be ignored [1][3] - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciated approximately 10% against the US Dollar (USD) on May 2 and May 5, with the latter date marking the highest increase in 37 years, driven by speculation that Taiwan agreed to currency appreciation in US trade negotiations [2] - Concerns about the "New Taiwan Dollar shock" have made many investors skeptical about the return of previously flowing overseas investment back to the US, despite a recent trade agreement between the US and the UK [1][3] Group 2 - The CIO of a New York-based macro hedge fund noted that investors who had not hedged against currency risks began to sell their US assets or engage in hedging transactions due to the sudden market expectations of USD depreciation and TWD appreciation [2] - High levels of investment in US assets from overseas regions, including Taiwan, have been observed over the past decade, but many of these investments have not been hedged against currency risks due to the recent trend of USD appreciation [2][3] - Concerns over unpredictable trade policies from the Trump administration are causing unease among overseas investors, which may lead to a shift of funds from the US to other countries, potentially contributing to a weaker USD [3]

Group 1 - The core issue facing Asian investors is how to hedge against significant fluctuations in the US dollar, particularly in light of the recent volatility of the New Taiwan Dollar, which surged nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day fluctuation since the 1980s [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies have accumulated approximately $700 billion in US dollar investments over the past decade, seeking higher overseas bond yields to meet policy obligations and attract depositors [1] - The cost of hedging against currency fluctuations has increased significantly, with the cost of using non-deliverable forward contracts to hedge New Taiwan Dollar fluctuations reaching 24%, well above normal levels [1] Group 2 - Some investors believe that as long as trade surpluses continue to generate a need for US dollars to flow back into the market, the risk of a significant currency collapse is low [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened by purchasing nearly $17 billion since May to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from appreciating beyond its pegged range against the US dollar [2] - The Bank of Korea's governor has warned that as long as global trade uncertainties persist, volatility in Asian currencies will continue, driven by unpredictable outcomes in trade negotiations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar (USD) has raised concerns about the implications for Taiwan's insurance industry and overall economy, driven by a combination of external pressures and internal financial strategies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - On May 2, the TWD experienced a 3% increase, followed by a 4% rise on May 5, marking the highest level since February 2023 and the largest single-day increase since 1988 [3][5]. - The USD/TWD exchange rate fell below 29, but later rebounded to around 30, indicating volatility in the currency market [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the TWD's appreciation cannot solely be attributed to Taiwan's stock market recovery or economic strength, as external factors like US tariffs and trade negotiations play a significant role [5][7]. Group 2: Impact on Insurance Sector - Taiwanese life insurance companies have significant exposure to USD assets, with a mismatch in their currency holdings leading to substantial risks, estimated at over $460 billion, which is more than 60% of Taiwan's GDP [12][10]. - The surge in the TWD has resulted in considerable losses for these companies, prompting them to hedge their USD exposure aggressively [12][10]. - UBS reports that the imbalance in the market could lead to a potential sell-off of up to $1 trillion if companies adjust their hedging strategies, which could further impact the TWD's value [10]. Group 3: Central Bank's Role - The Central Bank of Taiwan has faced challenges in intervening in the currency market due to external pressures from trade tensions and rising US bond yields [13][14]. - Some analysts believe the Central Bank may be intentionally allowing the TWD to appreciate to mitigate trade surpluses with the US, similar to strategies employed in the 1980s [13][14]. - The ongoing volatility in the currency market is seen as a precursor to broader financial restructuring globally, with potential long-term implications for Taiwan's export competitiveness and the insurance sector's solvency [13][14].

（文/陈济深 编辑/张广凯） 台湾蓝绿双方也就汇率问题展开了唇枪舌剑，台湾地区领导人赖清德5日称，美台贸易谈判没有提及汇 率，并"甩锅"表示汇率波动是部分政治人物误导市场和操弄心理预期。 对此国民党主席朱立伦则反驳称，赖清德对美国未战先降，是"跪族冠军"，抨击赖清德对美妥协的政策 将使台湾电子业陷入全行业亏损的境地。朱立伦表示，新台币升值10%，台积电的利润就要下滑4%， 代工厂则下降7%，统统都不要赚钱了。 而台湾的金融业也存在大量的海外资产。据统计，台湾保险公司有约7000亿境外美元资产，至少2000亿 美元资产没有做任何汇率对冲，而新台币兑美元一旦持续升值，台湾保险公司持有的美债等资产将面临 大量亏损的境地。 受美国关税政策影响，新台币汇率近日突发暴涨。 5月2日，新台币对美元单日升值4.37%，报收31.064创15个月新高；5月5日，新台币对美元继续大涨升 值4.92%，最高升至29.59。两个交易日对美元升值超过10%，创下台湾外汇交易历史第三大交易量。 尽管市场对于新台币暴涨原因众说纷纭，但特朗普和他的关税政策普遍被认为是这轮风暴的导火索。 在特朗普对等关税政策中，中国台湾地区被征收了32%的对 ...