【财经日历】 荣耀WIN系列新品发布会 交易提示：港股休市 机构认为，当前市场正处于一轮估值修复与资产轮动驱动的行情。 ►►国家新闻出版署公布2025年12月份国产网络游戏审批信息，12月共144款游戏获批。 ►►据证券时报，市场消息称，12月25日下午，四家头部硅片企业联合大幅上调报价，其中183N硅片报价1.4元/片、210RN报价1.5元/片、210N报价1.7元/ 片，平均涨幅达到12%。记者从多家硅片厂商人士处证实了上调报价的信息，业内普遍反馈，本次硅片涨价主要是上游硅料涨幅较大所致。 ►►国家烟草专卖局公开征求《国家烟草专卖局关于落实电子烟产业政策 进一步推动供需动态平衡的通知（征求意见稿）》意见。其中提出，加强电子烟 产能调控。坚持以市场需求为导向推进电子烟产业供给侧结构性改革，统筹企业装备水平、经营情况及产业态势，按照"公平公开、分类施策、稳妥有序"的 原则，实施电子烟核定产能管理。原则上，核定的电子烟产能应保持基本稳定，电子烟相关生产企业应在核定产能内开展生产经营，严禁超核定产能开展生 产经营，需要调整的应申请重新核定产能并履行许可证办理程序。允许合法合规经营、遵守产业政策和监管政策规定的电 ...

12月24日，回顾2025年的金融市场，主流资产的表现呈现出极大的分化。GTC泽汇资本观察到，尽管市 场此前对比特币寄予厚望，认为其能作为抵御通胀的利器，但其全年的波动表现却差强人意，不仅未能 跑赢传统避险资产黄金，甚至大幅落后于纳斯达克100指数。然而，这种滞后性往往孕育着新的市场机 遇，随着价格与基本面价值的偏离程度达到阶段性高点，反弹的动能正在蓄势。 在宏观金融环境方面，货币信用体制正面临长期的考验。GTC泽汇资本认为，全球主要经济体为了应对 庞大的公共债务与财政开支，对"货币印钞"的依赖度难以在短期内降低，这直接导致了法定货币购买力 的持续摊薄。在这种大背景下，全球资本对于"硬资产"的渴求正从单一品种向多元化扩散。 黄金作为传统硬资产的代表，其表现已印证了这一逻辑。GTC泽汇资本表示，黄金价格在过去一年中展 现了惊人的爆发力，涨幅超过70%，目前已站稳每盎司4492美元上方。随着市场预期金价将在2026年向 5000美元大关发起冲击，这种强势的避险情绪将产生明显的溢出效应，进而带动同样具有稀缺属性的数 字资产进入上升通道。 针对比特币的后续走势，GTC泽汇资本认为，尽管当前的流动性收紧与风险偏好下行压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Greater Bay Area has become a rapidly growing wealth center, with international asset management firms focusing on expanding their presence through various cross-border investment channels like QDII, WMC, and MRF [3][5]. Group 1: Cross-Border Investment Mechanisms - The cross-border investment mechanisms have seen two significant adjustments: the expansion of cross-border wealth management (WMC) to include securities firms and the increase of the Hong Kong mutual fund sales ratio from 50% to 80% [1][8]. - Different frameworks and sales channels cater to diverse customer groups, necessitating international asset management firms to explore suitable product matrices for mainland residents [1][6]. Group 2: Product and Market Insights - The company has two products under the cross-border wealth management scheme, with banks and securities firms each accounting for half of the distribution channels, complementing each other [2][8]. - A mutual fund under the company attracted 1.3 billion HKD in net inflows in November, leading the market, with 11 asset management firms in Hong Kong having launched mutual funds [2][3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - There is a clear trend of asset rotation from fixed deposits to bonds, then to multi-asset and stock markets, with a shift from technology sectors to energy [13][15]. - The company anticipates continued demand for global allocation strategies, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, as investors seek to diversify risks [7][14]. Group 4: Future Product Development - The company plans to increase its mutual fund offerings to three, pending regulatory approval, with a focus on global equity strategies that capture opportunities in energy and infrastructure [10][11]. - The company has established a product matrix that includes global multi-asset, Asian bonds, and global equities, aiming to provide diverse investment options for mainland investors [11][12].

2025 年 12 月 16 日 ， 2026 年宏观对冲策略年度行情展望 ---2026 年宏观对冲策略年报 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2025 年下半年内外政策不确定性情况有所改善。随着全球流动性改善与国内经济企稳，股债商之间的分散化 效果自年中以来明显恢复，资产配置的有效性抬升。海外政策路径逐步明朗，美联储进入降息周期、主要经济体财政扩张发 力，带动全球经济呈现温和复苏迹象并支撑新兴市场需求。在经济和流动性双端改善的背景下，市场风险偏好回升、资产共 振风险下降，宏观对冲策略所处的外部环境较年初显著改善，也在下半年实现盈利。 我们的逻辑：今年宏观对冲管理人整体较为分化。上半年由于宏观波动率较大以及全球宏观不确定因素，风险平价指数的回 撤与波动都大于资产轮动，清明行情中风险平价策略因其净多头的属性，相较资产轮动策略回撤较大，而部分资产轮动类管 理人能实现部分盈利。但在下半年的行情中，由于风险平价类的管理人被动持有资产的特质，因此在权益的牛市和避险情绪 集中释放带来的黄金新高中收益明显，实现较大的收益增幅，表现比资产轮动类管理人更为强劲。 投资展望：2026 年宏观对冲策略的配置性价比提升，风险 ...

Core Insights - The article outlines a strategic investment roadmap for the next six years, emphasizing a rotation from bonds to real estate as a means for ordinary investors to capitalize on market opportunities [1] Investment Strategy Overview - In 2022, smart money moved into bonds as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, leading to significant gains in high-dividend "bond-like stocks" [1] - The article predicts a bullish gold market from 2023 to 2026, suggesting that investors should enter now to benefit from anti-inflation gains [1] - A major stock market cycle is anticipated from September 2024 to September 2027, driven by corporate earnings and economic recovery, with growth and cyclical stocks expected to perform well [1] Commodity and Real Estate Outlook - Starting in 2026, commodities are expected to rise significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, with a recommendation to accumulate energy metals for future profit [1] - Real estate is projected to rebound after 2027, with a focus on core cities and essential housing as the ideal investment opportunity at that time [1] Risk Management Strategy - The investment strategy is characterized by a gradual increase in risk: starting with stable bonds, moving to gold for inflation protection, then to growth stocks, followed by commodities, and finally real estate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual performance of various asset classes in 2023, where traditionally opposing assets such as gold, dividends, and growth stocks have shown simultaneous gains, challenging the conventional inflation and deflation asset pricing framework [2][6][7]. Group 1: Asset Performance Analysis - In the first quarter of 2023, gold and growth stocks rose together, followed by a period in the second quarter where dividends and growth stocks also increased, and again in the third quarter where gold and growth stocks performed well together [2][4]. - The traditional asset pricing theory suggests that gold benefits from inflation, dividends are more attractive in deflationary environments, and growth stocks thrive in moderate inflation and risk-on conditions [6][7]. - The article posits that the current market dynamics cannot be solely explained by inflation or deflation, indicating that other factors, such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, are influencing asset prices [7][11]. Group 2: Macro Environment and Credit Cycles - The macroeconomic environment in China is characterized by a decline in overall prices, particularly in PPI, while excess liquidity is causing "scarce" assets to appreciate, reflecting a localized inflation phenomenon [11][15]. - The article emphasizes that the credit cycle framework is a more effective tool for understanding asset rotation in China, as it considers the underlying causes of inflation and deflation rather than just the outcomes [16][17]. - The credit cycle can be influenced by three main factors: new industry trends (e.g., AI), government-led fiscal stimulus, and traditional demand from the private sector [19][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts that the credit cycle in China is likely to shift towards a "fiscal strong + credit weak" or "fiscal weak + credit weak" phase, influenced by high base effects and slowing fiscal stimulus [28][36]. - Key indicators such as the broad fiscal deficit pulse and private sector credit pulse are expected to show downward trends, indicating a potential tightening of credit conditions [30][32]. - The article concludes that without significant policy intervention, the market is likely to continue along its current trajectory, focusing on sectors that remain resilient amid a weakening credit cycle [36][37].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting investment frameworks to changing market conditions, highlighting the need for continuous iteration and flexibility in investment strategies [1][2][3] Investment Framework - The investment approach has evolved from a focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) to a broader perspective that includes cyclical industries, reflecting the changing market dynamics since 2016 [2][12] - The ability to adapt to different market environments and asset rotations is crucial for long-term investment success, as sticking to a single industry can lead to missed opportunities [2][12] Industry Rotation Strategy - The strategy prioritizes mid-cycle indicators and macroeconomic trends, focusing on identifying stocks with strong earnings growth potential and minimal price distortion [3][6] - The rotation cycle is designed to be more gradual, emphasizing medium to long-term gains rather than short-term fluctuations [6][12] Future Value Assessment - Investment decisions are based on a dynamic assessment of future value, considering both macroeconomic conditions and individual stock performance [7][8] - The company aims to identify discrepancies in market pricing to uncover significant investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of thorough research and analysis [8][10] Team Dynamics and Performance - The company places a strong emphasis on team collaboration and skill development, ensuring that team members are well-equipped to identify and act on investment opportunities [16][17] - A structured training and evaluation system is in place to foster talent within the investment team, promoting a culture of continuous improvement and high performance [16][17]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting investment frameworks to changing market conditions, highlighting the need for continuous iteration and flexibility in investment strategies [1][2][3] - The focus is on identifying long-term value and opportunities in industries that may be overlooked by the market, with a strong emphasis on understanding both micro and macroeconomic factors [3][4][5] Investment Framework - The investment approach has evolved from a focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) to a more diversified strategy that includes cyclical and renewable energy sectors, adapting to market shifts since 2016 [1][2] - The iterative framework allows for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of not being confined to a single industry [2][3] Industry Rotation Strategy - The company prioritizes mid-cycle industry conditions and long-term trends, aiming for substantial returns rather than short-term fluctuations [3][4] - The strategy involves assessing whether stock prices are overvalued relative to fundamental performance, allowing for timely investment decisions [4][5] Team Dynamics and Performance - The company places significant emphasis on team collaboration and tactical expertise, fostering a culture of rigorous training and performance evaluation among team members [8] - The success of the investment team is attributed to a structured approach to research and a focus on continuous improvement, which has led to the emergence of multiple high-performing funds [8] Market Outlook - The article suggests that the future of active equity investment will increasingly rely on managers skilled in industry rotation, as market dynamics continue to evolve [6][7] - The company believes that passive investment strategies may struggle to keep pace with the rapid changes in market conditions, reinforcing the value of active management [7]

Market Overview - In September, domestic stock market indices showed a comprehensive increase, with the ChiNext Index rising significantly by 12.04%, while the CSI 1000 had a smaller increase of 1.83%. Year-to-date, the ChiNext Index has performed strongly with a gain of 51.20%, compared to a weaker performance of the CSI 300 at 17.94% [1][4]. - In terms of market style, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in September, and growth stocks outperformed value stocks. Year-to-date, the ChiNext Small Cap Index has increased by 28.12%, while the ChiNext Large Cap Index has only risen by 17.64%. The Guozheng Growth Index has shown a gain of 30.64%, while the Guozheng Value Index has only increased by 4.61% [1][5]. - The best-performing sectors in September were Power Equipment and New Energy (+18.64%), Nonferrous Metals (+12.44%), and Electronics (+10.28%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Comprehensive Finance (-8.04%), Banking (-6.65%), and Defense and Military Industry (-6.62%) [1][10]. - In the bond market, the total wealth index for corporate bonds decreased by 0.04%, while the total wealth index for government bonds fell by 0.52%. Year-to-date, corporate bonds have performed better with a gain of 1.46%, compared to a loss of 0.42% for government bonds [1][5]. - In the commodity market, major domestic commodity indices showed mixed results in September, with the Nanhua Gold Index rising by 11.05% and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declining by 2.79%. Year-to-date, the Nanhua Gold Index has increased by 39.76%, while the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index has decreased by 10.57% [1][5]. - In overseas markets, major stock indices showed mixed results in September, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 13.95% and the German DAX Index declining by 0.09%. Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Technology Index has performed well with a gain of 44.71%, while the French CAC40 Index has shown a decline of 6.98% [1][7]. ETF Strategy Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Style Rotation Portfolio has shown outstanding cumulative returns since inception at 118.04%, surpassing its benchmark by 76.98%. The 80/20 Rotation Portfolio has also performed well with a cumulative return of 56.82%, exceeding its benchmark by 16.30% [2][11]. - The Valuation Selection ETF has demonstrated strong performance this year with a cumulative return of 44.33%, exceeding its benchmark by 39.72%. The Global Allocation Portfolio has achieved a cumulative return of 23.66% this year, surpassing its benchmark by 10.01% [2][11]. - The Dynamic Duration Strategy has shown a cumulative return of 19.41% since inception, exceeding its benchmark by 4.01%. The Asset Rotation Strategy has performed well this year with a cumulative return of 25.44%, surpassing its benchmark by 19.87%. The Asset Rotation Strategy 2.0 has also shown a cumulative return of 23.21% this year, exceeding its benchmark by 17.64% [2][11].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is showing signs reminiscent of 2015, with potential for significant price movements driven by similar economic conditions and investor behavior [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, along with a data vacuum caused by the U.S. government shutdown, is creating a favorable environment for gold, similar to the pre-2015 conditions [1][2]. - Economic data disruptions, such as fluctuating employment figures, have historically influenced gold prices, as seen in 2015 when lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data led to a 2.3% increase in gold prices [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in investments in gold ETFs, with SPDR Gold Shares seeing a record inflow of 18.9 tons in a single day, echoing the asset reallocation trends of 2015 [4]. - Central bank gold purchases have shifted from retail-driven to strategic allocations, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons since 2022, compared to less than 600 tons in 2015 [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current technical setup for gold shows a strong upward channel, with significant support around the $3835-$3840 range, indicating enhanced market resilience compared to 2015 [6]. - Silver's performance is positively correlated with gold, as evidenced by a 2.09% increase in silver prices, which could further bolster gold's upward momentum [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical; a disappointing report could trigger a surge in gold prices similar to the events of November 2015 [8]. - Key price levels are crucial for short-term movements; a breakout above $3865 could lead to targets of $3900-$3950, while a drop below $3720 may signal a need for caution [8][10].