Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is complex and volatile, with expectations of changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics and Trends - The core characteristics of the current market include significant price volatility for certain commodities and a notable premium for safe assets, with continued sector differentiation [2] - The pricing mechanism in the commodity market is undergoing fundamental changes, with a shift from global economic recovery to asset allocation driven by geopolitical conflicts [3] - The demand for strategic metals is being re-evaluated due to the weakening of the dollar's credit, the AI revolution increasing demand for new materials, and countries competing for strategic resources [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, with a forecasted range of 6.8 to 7 against the USD for 2026 [4] - The core support for RMB appreciation comes from a changing global asset allocation logic and a significant trade surplus, which exceeded 1 trillion USD in 2025 [4] - Potential negative factors for the RMB exchange rate include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic export performance [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies - The pricing power of commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macro narratives, focusing on de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [5] - Both industry clients and ordinary traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to asset rotation and management, focusing on optimizing asset quality by disposing of non-strategic or underperforming assets [1]. Group 1 - The company has been actively managing its assets in recent years [1] - It aims to timely dispose of equity and assets that do not meet strategic significance or operational expectations [1] - The strategy is part of the company's broader goal to enhance asset quality [1]

（韩国综指保持强势涨0.9%） 分析认为欧美贸易战警报的暂时解除，显著提振了全球投资者的风险偏好，并加速了一场潜在的、更深层次的资产轮动。 由于对美国政策不可预测性的担忧，资金正逐步从估值高企的美国资产中流出，转向估值更具吸引力且地缘政治风险相对较远的亚洲市场。这一 轮动直接导致美元走弱，并为亚太股市和贵金属等资产提供了强劲的上行动能。 Natixis IM Solutions全球市场策略主管Mabrouk Chetouane表示： （三星电子上涨1.7%） 日经225指数上涨0.34%，澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数一度上涨0.45%。值得注意的是，前一日刚刚历史性突破5000点大关的韩国综合股指继续保 持强势，盘中一度涨至1.4%。 亚洲地区远离美国、欧盟和拉丁美洲等地缘政治中心，这种距离就像一道屏障，使投资者能够分散对风险资产的敞口。 值得注意的是，亚洲市场的焦点将集中在日本央行的利率决议上，预计日本央行将维持政策利率在0.75%不变。此前，首相高市早苗提出的扩大 支出计划曾引发金融市场动荡，因此日本央行的政策表态将受到密切关注。 全球资金正加速拥抱估值更具吸引力且有增长韧性的亚洲市场。亚太地区股市 ...

股市方面，A股18连阳行情强势站上4100点，成交量创下历史新高，逼近4万亿大关，科技与顺周期板块成资金主线，而美股则高位小幅回 调，市场等待1月美联储议息会议结果。 债市方面，中债呈牛平特征收益率曲线下移，而美债则熊陡走弱，收益率上行，市场对美联储降息节奏预期趋谨慎。 大宗商品市场更是冰火两重天，贵金属、有色金属大涨，而能源化工、黑色系则受供需失衡拖累表现低迷。 A股牛市还能上车吗？哪类资产最值得关注？港股与A股怎么选？ 美股2026年还能继续科技AI的牛市狂欢吗？ 1月美联储议息会议传递出哪些新信息？如何前瞻美国通胀形势与降息节奏？ 十五五规划中，有哪些战略新兴产业值得重点关注？ 美国拉斯维加斯CES、英伟达GTC大会上科技行业有哪些新产品、新进展？ 商业航天大热背后的机遇与风险？ 反内卷政策能否推动商品价格持续上涨？ ...... 2026年开年，全球市场分化剧烈： 关于全球大类资产与热点行业，大家在2026年一季度最关心的问题是： 为了帮大家看清2026年一季度大类资产轮动与风向变化、热点行业的前瞻解读，我们一季度预计邀请多位重磅嘉宾来主讲Alpha线上闭门私享会 ——百亿私募敦和资管首席经济学家徐小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing structural differentiation in the market, highlighting the phenomenon where "indices rise but profits do not." It presents Dunhe Asset Management's investment philosophy of "asset rotation based on safety margins" as a solution to enhance excess returns in a challenging investment environment [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dunhe Asset Management, established in 2011, has consistently adhered to its investment philosophy and has received multiple industry awards, including the Golden Bull Award and the Golden Yangtze Award [1]. - In 2022, Dunhe Asset Management proactively entered the quantitative investment sector by establishing the Dunhe Quantitative Anxin Division, which comprises seven specialized teams and nearly 30 professionals with extensive quantitative experience [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of December 2025, the Dunhe Year Wheel Quantitative Index Enhancement Series products have shown impressive performance, with the "Dunhe Year Wheel CSI 1000 Index Enhancement No. 1 A-Class" achieving a full-year return of ***% and excess geometric returns exceeding ***%, with a maximum drawdown of ***%, significantly lower than the CSI 1000 index drawdown [2]. - The "Dunhe Year Wheel CSI 2000 Index Enhancement No. 1 A-Class" also reported a full-year return of ***% since its inception on April 16, 2025, with similar metrics of excess returns and drawdown [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Dunhe Year Wheel Quantitative Index Enhancement Strategy is designed as a balanced enhancement tool covering various indices, aiming to provide both offensive and defensive capabilities [8]. - The strategy employs a three-pronged framework of "factor-model-risk control," integrating human and machine-driven factor discovery, traditional machine learning, and advanced deep learning models to enhance predictive capabilities while mitigating strategy crowding [8][9][10]. Group 4: Team Composition - The investment research team for the Year Wheel series consists of seven core members with backgrounds in mathematics, physics, computer science, and artificial intelligence, combining strong academic foundations with practical experience [7]. - The investment manager, Yao Yifan, has over ten years of quantitative research experience across various prestigious institutions, contributing to the strategy's robust professional foundation [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - As market structural opportunities become increasingly difficult to capture and competition in quantitative strategies intensifies, the article suggests that building a truly balanced and stable investment portfolio will be crucial for future success [11].

Market Overview - The current market is undergoing a valuation repair and asset rotation driven trend [1][8] - A-shares are expected to experience a "spring rally" if three conditions are met: reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite [8] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation is set to release the "Food Commissioned Production Supervision Management Measures" to address issues related to commissioned production practices, ensuring food safety responsibilities are clearly defined [3] - A new industry standard for e-commerce platforms regarding mandatory product certification verification has been implemented, aimed at enhancing consumer rights and promoting high-quality platform economy development [3] Industry Specific Updates - Four leading silicon wafer companies have significantly raised their prices, with an average increase of 12%, attributed to substantial rises in upstream silicon material costs [4] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is seeking opinions on a draft notice to strengthen electronic cigarette production capacity regulation, emphasizing a market demand-oriented approach [5] Company Announcements - Dongguan Securities has indicated that the market is currently in a phase of valuation repair and asset rotation [8] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued a letter of concern to Sunflower regarding its acquisition plans, requesting clarification on potential impacts on competition and independence due to legal issues faced by the target company [6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market in 2025 has shown significant divergence in the performance of mainstream assets, with Bitcoin underperforming traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the Nasdaq 100 index, despite initial high expectations [1][3]. Macro Financial Environment - The monetary credit system is facing long-term challenges, with major economies heavily reliant on "money printing" to manage public debt and fiscal spending, leading to a continuous dilution of fiat currency purchasing power [4]. - There is a growing global demand for "hard assets," moving from single asset types to a diversified approach, with gold demonstrating a remarkable price increase of over 70% in the past year, currently priced above $4,492 per ounce [4]. Gold and Bitcoin Outlook - Market expectations suggest that gold prices may approach $5,000 in 2026, creating a strong safe-haven sentiment that could positively impact digital assets with similar scarcity attributes [4]. - Despite current liquidity tightening and declining risk appetite affecting the crypto market, Bitcoin's core growth logic remains intact, with historical sensitivity to liquidity expansion indicating potential for significant performance in 2026 [2][4]. Energy and Raw Materials Sector - The recovery in the energy and raw materials sectors is providing support for the overall hard asset market, driven by a productivity revolution from AI, infrastructure rebuilding, and robotics, leading to a "quiet bull market" in natural resources [5]. - The rise of these physical assets is not only providing foundational economic support but is also contributing to a new asset safe haven alongside digital assets [5]. Future Investment Landscape - Investors are at a critical juncture for asset rotation, with the rise of hard assets seen as an irreversible trend driven by accelerated fiscal depreciation and technological change [5]. - Understanding the interconnectivity across asset classes is crucial for investors, as the company continues to monitor subtle changes in market liquidity to help clients balance between the steady growth of gold and the explosive potential of Bitcoin [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Greater Bay Area has become a rapidly growing wealth center, with international asset management firms focusing on expanding their presence through various cross-border investment channels like QDII, WMC, and MRF [3][5]. Group 1: Cross-Border Investment Mechanisms - The cross-border investment mechanisms have seen two significant adjustments: the expansion of cross-border wealth management (WMC) to include securities firms and the increase of the Hong Kong mutual fund sales ratio from 50% to 80% [1][8]. - Different frameworks and sales channels cater to diverse customer groups, necessitating international asset management firms to explore suitable product matrices for mainland residents [1][6]. Group 2: Product and Market Insights - The company has two products under the cross-border wealth management scheme, with banks and securities firms each accounting for half of the distribution channels, complementing each other [2][8]. - A mutual fund under the company attracted 1.3 billion HKD in net inflows in November, leading the market, with 11 asset management firms in Hong Kong having launched mutual funds [2][3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - There is a clear trend of asset rotation from fixed deposits to bonds, then to multi-asset and stock markets, with a shift from technology sectors to energy [13][15]. - The company anticipates continued demand for global allocation strategies, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, as investors seek to diversify risks [7][14]. Group 4: Future Product Development - The company plans to increase its mutual fund offerings to three, pending regulatory approval, with a focus on global equity strategies that capture opportunities in energy and infrastructure [10][11]. - The company has established a product matrix that includes global multi-asset, Asian bonds, and global equities, aiming to provide diverse investment options for mainland investors [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the uncertainty of domestic and foreign policies improved. With the improvement of global liquidity and the stabilization of the domestic economy, the diversification effect among stocks, bonds, and commodities significantly recovered since mid - year, and the effectiveness of asset allocation increased. The overseas policy path became clearer, the Fed entered the interest - rate cut cycle, and major economies increased fiscal expansion, driving the global economy to show signs of mild recovery and supporting emerging market demand. In this context, market risk appetite recovered, and the resonance risk of assets decreased. The external environment for macro - hedging strategies improved significantly compared to the beginning of the year, and profits were achieved in the second half of the year [2]. - In 2026, the allocation cost - performance of macro - hedging strategies will increase. Risk - parity strategies have more bottom - position value in an environment where asset correlations decline, which can balance return acquisition and drawdown control. However, the market may still experience periodic fluctuations, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether the manager has a perfect tail - risk protection mechanism. In the pattern where asset differentiation reappears, moderately increasing the allocation of asset - rotation managers with single - asset alpha - capture ability can enhance the portfolio's return elasticity and optimize the risk - return structure [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Performance of Macro - Hedging Strategies in 2025 1.1 Review of the Performance of Risk - Parity and Asset - Rotation Strategies - The "risk - parity" index of domestic macro - hedging managers had a net value of 1.172 as of November 28, 2025. The weekly average return was 0.36%, with an annualized value of 20.29%, and the weekly volatility was 1.41%, with an annualized volatility of 10.15%. The cumulative maximum drawdown was - 4.09%, reaching the bottom in the week after April 11 (Tomb - Sweeping Festival). The "asset - rotation" index had a net value of 1.101. The weekly average return was 0.21%, with an annualized value of 11.72%, and the weekly volatility was 0.93%, with an annualized volatility of 6.67%. The cumulative maximum drawdown was - 3.73%, reaching the bottom on May 23. Overall, the performance of risk - parity strategies was better than that of asset - rotation strategies in 2025, but the volatility was also greater [6][7]. - For risk - parity macro - hedging managers, the average weekly return was positive in 30 weeks and negative in 16 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025. The highest single - week return was 5.87%, occurring in the week of May 23, mainly due to the sharp increase in gold prices, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.35%, occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. For asset - rotation macro - hedging managers, the weekly return was positive in 25 weeks and negative in 20 weeks. The highest single - week return was 2.57%, also occurring after the Spring Festival in February, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.06%, occurring in the week of November 21, following the stock decline that week [8]. - The performance of macro - hedging strategies was differentiated in the first and second halves of the year, with the second - half performance being significantly better. In the first half, due to high macro - volatility and global macro - uncertainties, the drawdown and volatility of risk - parity managers were greater than those of asset - rotation managers. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the net values of the two strategies diverged significantly. In the second half, the stock - bond bull market and the continuous strengthening of gold after the third quarter led to a significant increase in the returns of macro - hedging strategies. After September, the risk - parity strategies outperformed the asset - rotation strategies due to their passive holding of gold positions, but the overall volatility was also greater [9]. 1.2 Review of the Performance of Subjective and Quantitative Strategies - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative net value of the quantitative macro - hedging index was 1.128, and that of the subjective macro - hedging index was 1.118. The average weekly return of the quantitative macro - index was 0.27%, with a weekly volatility of 0.98% (annualized volatility of 7.06%). The average weekly return of the subjective macro - index was 0.25%, with a weekly volatility of 1.03% (annualized volatility of 7.46%). The single - week maximum return of the quantitative macro - hedging index was 3.36% on May 23, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.47% after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. The maximum single - week return of the subjective macro - hedging index was 3.00% on February 7, and the maximum single - week drawdown was - 2.37% on November 21 [12]. - In terms of return and drawdown, the volatility of the two strategies was similar. In the market in 2025, the return differences between the two strategies were not significant, but the market conditions affecting the returns were slightly different [13]. 2. Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Market Conditions in 2025 2.1 Domestic Macro - Hedging Strategies 2.1.1 Analysis of the Correlation between Macro - Hedging Strategies and Major Asset Classes - In 2025, the negative correlation between bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. Commodities were positively correlated with stock indices, negatively correlated with bonds, and positively correlated with gold. Gold was negatively correlated with equities and had a higher correlation with bonds compared to the end of last year, indicating its status as a primary safe - haven asset. Overall, asset correlations showed further differentiation in 2025 [18]. - The weekly return of the risk - parity index had the highest correlation with the return of the gold ETF, reaching 0.453, followed by the CSI Commodity Index and the SSE 50 Index, reaching 0.441 and 0.230 respectively. So, the returns of risk - parity strategies mainly relied on gold this year. In contrast, the asset - rotation index had the highest correlation with the CSI 1000 Index, reaching 0.641, and a much higher correlation with the SSE 50 Index than the risk - parity strategies, reaching 0.628. Therefore, the returns of asset - rotation managers were more dependent on their equity exposure. The exposure of both strategies to bonds decreased compared to the first half of the year [19]. 2.1.2 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Equity Assets - In 2025, the asset - rotation strategy was more dependent on stocks for returns than the risk - parity strategy. The A - share market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of November 28, 2025, the CSI 1000 Index had a higher increase than the SSE 50 Index, with a net value of 1.304 after normalization at the beginning of the year, while the SSE 50 Index was 1.199. The weekly average return of the SSE 50 Index was 0.40%, with a volatility of 1.66% (annualized volatility of 11.96%), and the weekly average return and volatility increased compared to mid - year. The weekly average return of the CSI 1000 Index was 0.60%, with a volatility of 2.61% (annualized volatility of 18.8%), and the weekly average return increased while the volatility decreased compared to mid - year [21]. - In the first quarter, the stock market fluctuated and differentiated, with risk appetite recovering but volatility also increasing significantly. The market showed an overall upward - fluctuating trend, and the macro - hedging strategies diverged, with the risk - parity index being dragged down by bonds and commodities and performing weakly, while the asset - rotation index benefited from the growth market. In the second quarter, the market was affected by policy disturbances and trade risks, with significant fluctuations. The macro - hedging strategies also showed differentiation. In the third quarter, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the stock market rose strongly, and the macro - hedging strategies generally benefited. In the fourth quarter, the market adjusted, and the macro - hedging strategies faced drawdowns [22][23][24][25]. 2.1.3 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Treasury Bond Assets - The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the Treasury bond market had entered a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted Treasury bonds, while risk - parity strategies still held bond positions [28]. - In the first quarter, the bond market adjusted at a high level. Most macro - managers actively reduced bond durations, with risk - parity strategies slightly reducing positions and asset - rotation strategies starting to reduce or short bond assets. In the second quarter, the bond market fluctuated at a high level. In May, the risk - parity managers who held Treasury bonds achieved positive returns, while the asset - rotation managers had drawdowns. In the third quarter, the bond market was under pressure, but the macro - hedging managers were not significantly affected. In the fourth quarter, the bond market showed a short - term recovery with limited space. The risk - parity managers obtained some returns from the bond market recovery in October, while the asset - rotation managers had slightly lower returns due to their low bond allocation [28][29][30][31]. 2.1.4 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Commodity Assets - From January 3 to November 28, 2025, the normalized cumulative net value of the CSI Commodity Index was 1.087. The correlation between the risk - parity index and the CSI Commodity Index was 0.441, and that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.506. Commodities had a greater impact on asset - rotation strategies, but the correlations decreased compared to mid - year [33]. - In the first half of 2025, the commodity index trended weakly with high volatility. The asset - rotation managers with short positions in industrial products performed better. In the third quarter, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the commodity market rose and then partially corrected, and many macro - hedging strategies obtained some returns. In the fourth quarter, the commodity market consolidated, and the contribution of commodities to macro - hedging strategies was not significant, but there were some drawdowns in November [33][34][35]. 2.1.5 Review of Macro - Hedging Strategies and Gold ETF Assets - In 2025, gold reached new highs and was one of the strongest - performing assets. The cumulative net value of the gold ETF from January 3 to November 28, 2025, was 1.588. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a much greater impact on risk - parity strategies, and the asset - rotation managers were more willing to participate in the equity market. Compared to mid - year, the correlations of both strategies with the gold ETF decreased, with the asset - rotation strategy showing a larger decrease [37]. - In the first quarter, gold fluctuated strongly. Although it contributed positively to the macro - hedging strategies, the contribution was limited due to low positions. In the second quarter, gold was supported by weak US economic data and geopolitical risks, bringing positive returns to the strategies but being partially offset by the drawdowns of equity and commodity assets. In May, gold entered an adjustment phase, and the risk - parity strategies faced relatively large drawdowns. In the third quarter, gold fluctuated and consolidated, and its contribution to the strategies was limited. In the fourth quarter, gold maintained a strong pattern. In October, the risk - parity strategies benefited significantly from the new high of gold, while the asset - rotation managers had a weaker increase in returns. In November, there were some drawdowns due to the gold price correction [38][39][40][41][42]. 2.2 Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies 2.2.1 Review of Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedging index was 1.088, with a monthly average return of 0.86% (annualized to 10.88%), a monthly volatility of 1.44% (annualized volatility of 4.97%), and a maximum monthly drawdown of - 1.10% in April. The net value of the "subjective" macro - hedging index was 1.129, with a monthly average return of 1.23% (annualized to 15.81%), a monthly volatility of 1.41% (annualized volatility of 4.90%), and a maximum drawdown of - 1.68% in March. The net value of the "quantitative" macro - hedging index was 1.159, with a monthly average return of 19.55%, a monthly volatility of 1.54% (annualized volatility of 5.35%), and a maximum drawdown of - 0.77% also in April. Overall, the quantitative macro - hedging strategy performed the best, followed by the subjective strategy, and the overall returns were similar to those in the domestic market [45][46]. 2.2.2 Analysis of the Correlation between Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies and Major Asset Classes - In 2025, from January to October, the S&P 500 and the GSCI Commodity Index had a positive correlation, while they were negatively correlated with the US Treasury bond index and New York gold. The US Treasury bond index was negatively correlated with the commodity index. The return of gold had a low correlation with stocks, bonds, and commodities, and its correlation with the S&P 500 changed from positive to negative compared to mid - 2025 [49]. - The return of the unidentified macro - hedging index had a more balanced correlation with major asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedging index had a high correlation with the S&P 500 (0.792) and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the overall performance of the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedging index also had a high correlation with the S&P 500 (0.627) and the GSCI (0.300), but a negative correlation with US Treasury bonds and gold, suggesting that its returns were also more related to the US stock market, and overseas macro - hedging managers' returns did not seem to rely much on the gold market this year [50]. 2.2.3 Review of Overseas Macro - Hedging Strategies and US Assets - The S&P 500 was the asset most correlated with the subjective and quantitative macro - hedging strategies. The overseas equity market performed well in 2025, and the S&P 500 index rose by about 16.7% during the year, bringing significant returns to overseas macro - hedging strategies [52][53]. - The US Treasury bond market was mainly traded around interest - rate cut expectations. The short - term interest rates declined, while the long - term interest rates remained relatively high, resulting in a bull market in US Treasury bonds and bringing returns to some overseas macro - hedging strategies [55]. - The GSCI index was more correlated with the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedging indices and negatively correlated with the subjective macro - hedging index. The GSCI index performed weakly and was volatile, and its decline in April affected the net values of some overseas macro - hedging managers [59]. - Only the unidentified macro - hedging strategy had a positive correlation with New York gold, while the subjective and quantitative macro - hedging strategies had negative correlations. The strong performance of gold this year seemed to have a weak correlation with the returns of overseas macro - hedging strategies. Although gold reached new highs in April and October, the increase in April did not offset the losses of overseas macro - hedging strategies [62]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Judgment on Macro - Hedging Strategies in 2026 - Since the transition from mid - year to the fourth quarter, the correlation between assets has decreased significantly compared to mid - year, and the diversification effect among stocks, bonds, and commodities has gradually recovered. With the stabilization of the domestic economy and the improvement of the global liquidity environment, the three major asset classes have shown more differentiated performance, and the effectiveness of asset allocation has increased [64]. - In 2026, the overseas policy path will be clearer, with the Fed entering a continuous interest - rate cut cycle and major economies increasing fiscal expansion, driving the global economy to show signs of mild recovery. The domestic policy will focus on "anti - involution" and structural optimization. Under the improvement of the economy and liquidity, market risk appetite will recover, and the resonance risk between assets will decrease. The external environment for macro - hedging strategies will improve significantly compared to the beginning of the year [64][65]. 3.2 Investment Outlook - In 2026, the allocation value of macro - hedging strategies will increase, and the overall return cost - performance will rise. In the market environment where both gold and equities are at relatively high levels but still have continuous allocation value, macro - hedging strategies can balance return acquisition and drawdown control. Some investors are

Core Insights - The article outlines a strategic investment roadmap for the next six years, emphasizing a rotation from bonds to real estate as a means for ordinary investors to capitalize on market opportunities [1] Investment Strategy Overview - In 2022, smart money moved into bonds as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, leading to significant gains in high-dividend "bond-like stocks" [1] - The article predicts a bullish gold market from 2023 to 2026, suggesting that investors should enter now to benefit from anti-inflation gains [1] - A major stock market cycle is anticipated from September 2024 to September 2027, driven by corporate earnings and economic recovery, with growth and cyclical stocks expected to perform well [1] Commodity and Real Estate Outlook - Starting in 2026, commodities are expected to rise significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, with a recommendation to accumulate energy metals for future profit [1] - Real estate is projected to rebound after 2027, with a focus on core cities and essential housing as the ideal investment opportunity at that time [1] Risk Management Strategy - The investment strategy is characterized by a gradual increase in risk: starting with stable bonds, moving to gold for inflation protection, then to growth stocks, followed by commodities, and finally real estate [1]