距离11月1日财政部和税务总局发布《关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》（以下简称黄金税收新规或新规），已经过去半月有余。黄金市场发生了哪些变化？ 《每日经济新闻》记者近日进行了调查，发现三大现象。 第一，税改前后，金饰价格普涨约60元/克，金条价格涨幅不一；第二，重直销的连锁品牌金店在金条价格上更具优势，未发生大幅涨价；第三，大部分银 行渠道的金条价格没有受到影响，包括银行自营金条和代销金条。 深圳水贝市场图片来源：每经记者赵景致摄 多名受访者告诉记者，在新规的影响之下，未来黄金产业链将可能被重塑。一是金条产业链将缩短，场外交易将减少；二是虚开发票等利用黄金税收优惠政 策非法套利的空间将被压缩；三是未来金饰需要进一步提升工艺价值，以增强吸引力。 黄金珠宝市场价格出现三大现象 现象一：金饰价格普涨，金条价格涨幅不一 新规落地后，黄金珠宝市场很快泛起涟漪。 11月3日，记者来到深圳水贝市场，发现黄金首饰较此前涨价约60元/克。记者在现场看见，水贝很多商铺客人仍然络绎不绝，但消费者观望情绪更浓厚了。 店家表示："也不是大家都不买了，只是这两天都在观望。" 对于金饰涨价，水贝一店家对记者表示："黄金是13%的税，以前可以全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in gold tax policy in China have led to significant price discrepancies in the gold market, affecting both retail prices and recovery rates, with a notable increase in costs for consumers [1][7]. Market Phenomenon - The price of gold jewelry has surged to 1268 yuan per gram, while bank investment gold bars hover around 930 yuan per gram, indicating a clear distinction based on purchase intent: consumption versus investment [3]. - Consumers are exhibiting caution in their purchasing decisions, with some opting to delay purchases until after the release of CPI data, reflecting concerns over potential price corrections [3]. - The gold recovery market is active but characterized by significant price gaps, with recovery prices from major brands being substantially lower than retail prices, leading to potential losses for consumers [3]. Data Insights - As of November 8, 2025, international gold prices have stabilized above 4000 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.33% [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 917.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a minor increase, while the price fluctuations indicate a growing divergence between bullish and bearish market sentiments [5]. Policy Impact - The new tax regulations effective from November 1 have increased the tax burden on gold used for investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail prices in various markets [7]. - The policy has caused temporary confusion in market pricing, prompting industry associations to issue guidelines for compliance [7]. Institutional Movements - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with China's central bank holding a record 2304 tons of gold as of October, indicating a strategic shift towards gold accumulation [10]. - Emerging market central banks are becoming the primary drivers of gold demand, reflecting a broader trend towards diversifying foreign exchange reserves [10]. International Factors - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing short-term gold price fluctuations, with market expectations leaning towards a potential interest rate cut [12][13]. - Geopolitical risks have shown a cooling effect on gold prices, as recent developments have reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [13]. Investment Strategies - Current technical analysis suggests that gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key resistance and support levels identified [15]. - The growing popularity of gold ETFs among younger investors highlights a shift towards more flexible investment options that do not require physical storage [15]. - Significant price differences between various purchasing channels indicate that consumers need to be aware of the cost implications when investing in gold [15]. Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a tension between long-term support from central bank purchases and short-term pressures from changing monetary policies and geopolitical stability [17]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could test higher levels in the future, but caution that the market has not yet reached critical thresholds that typically signal a market downturn [17].

Group 1 - The current international gold price is $4112.8 per ounce, with various domestic jewelry brands offering different prices for gold and platinum per gram [1][7] - The price of gold per gram ranges from 1086 yuan to 1236 yuan across different brands, while platinum prices vary from 364 yuan to 660 yuan [1][3][4] - The price of gold bars from major banks ranges from 989.3 yuan to 1033 yuan per gram, indicating a competitive market for gold investment products [10][14] Group 2 - The HSBC report predicts that the upward cycle of gold prices may continue until 2026, with a target price raised to $5000 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs also maintains a similar outlook [30] - The volatility in the precious metals market has led to significant losses for leveraged trading groups, with over $2 billion in long positions being liquidated due to margin calls [30] - Silver has shown remarkable performance with a year-to-date increase of over 80%, significantly outperforming gold, but it also exhibits greater price volatility [31]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices fluctuating dramatically around the key support level of $4040, reminiscent of the market conditions before the 2016 gold bull market [1][3][5]. Market Volatility - On October 25, the London gold spot price dropped from $4144.19 to $4044.07, a decline of over 2.3%, before rebounding to $4111.22, indicating a volatile trading session [3][5]. - The recent trend includes a notable drop of 5.31% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 12 years, with prices nearing the psychological barrier of $4000 [3][5]. Historical Comparison - Current market conditions closely mirror those of 2016, where investor sentiment was cautious, awaiting confirmation of a breakout, which was later triggered by the Federal Reserve signaling interest rate cuts, leading to a 14.6% increase in gold prices within a month [5][7]. - Key data comparisons show that the U.S. CPI in September 2025 was 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, similar to the 2016 scenario that ignited rate cut expectations [5][7]. Support Levels and Trading Activity - The $4040 support level has become a focal point for both bulls and bears, with gold prices testing this level multiple times in the past three months and rebounding each time [7][9]. - On October 25, trading volume surged by 27% compared to the previous day, indicating significant market activity around this support level [7]. Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with a net addition of 987 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a solid support for gold prices [7][9]. - The Chinese central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves for 36 months, reaching 2842 tons, which contributes to a hidden safety net for the market [7][9]. Retail Market Dynamics - Retail gold sales reflect changing market sentiments, with gold shops experiencing reduced foot traffic but employing strategies like price guarantee services to attract customers [9]. - Different consumer segments show varied preferences, with wedding-related buyers focusing on branded gold jewelry, while investors lean towards bank investment gold bars [9]. Short-term Trading Opportunities - The increased volatility in gold prices has created short-term trading opportunities, with technical indicators suggesting potential rebounds [11]. - The domestic gold futures market is also experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a decline [11]. Investor Strategies - Investor strategies are diverging, with experienced investors placing long positions around $4040-$4045, while cautious investors are opting for short positions if prices break below $4040 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time in history, is attributed to a lack of confidence in the US dollar and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [2][9][21]. Price Movement - On October 6, gold prices began to rise, breaking through key levels, with London spot gold reaching over $3900 and then $3950 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over $70, or 1.8% [6][11]. - On October 7, gold prices officially surpassed $4000 per ounce during Asian trading hours, with the New York Commodity Exchange reporting a peak of $4014.6 per ounce [7][9]. - By October 8, various gold brands in China saw significant price increases, with some reaching 1176 yuan per gram, reflecting a strong demand in retail [9][11]. Economic Context - The recent government shutdown in the US has led to significant economic disruptions, with 750,000 federal employees losing pay and a daily economic loss of $400 million, contributing to the perception of instability in the dollar [11][13]. - Historical patterns show that gold prices tend to rise during US government shutdowns, as seen in previous instances in 2013 and 2018 [13]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net addition of 15 tons in August alone. China's central bank has been particularly aggressive, increasing its reserves to 7406 million ounces by the end of September [17][19]. - This trend reflects a shift from holding US dollars to gold, as countries seek to secure their wealth against potential dollar depreciation [19]. Investment Strategies - For individuals looking to purchase gold, it is advised to prioritize lower-cost options and wait for potential price corrections before buying [27][31]. - Investors should avoid speculative practices and consider gold as a means of wealth preservation rather than a quick profit opportunity [31][35]. - Those who have previously invested in gold and have seen significant gains are encouraged to consider selling a portion to secure profits while maintaining some exposure [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions that enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of October 9, 2025, international gold prices show a mixed trend, with New York gold futures at $4045.7 per ounce, down 0.61%, while London gold rose 0.44% to $4029.17 per ounce. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold T+D surged 4.79% to 911.5 yuan per gram [1]. - The domestic gold jewelry prices from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have exceeded 1160 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.69% increase [1]. Driving Factors - Short-term upward momentum is attributed to three main factors: a high probability (87.7%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, increased holdings in the SPDR gold ETF reaching a three-year high of 1018 tons, and seasonal demand in China due to weddings and festivals [2][3]. - The recent rise in gold prices is also linked to a significant increase in investment demand, with global gold bar and coin investment up 11% in Q2, while jewelry consumption fell by 14% [6][7]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally continue to increase gold reserves, with a net purchase of 166 tons in Q2 2025, despite a 21% year-on-year decrease. This trend indicates a sustained demand for gold as a strategic asset [5][6]. - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to maintain gold's appeal, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months [5][6]. Investment Strategy - For short-term investors, caution is advised against chasing high prices, as the market shows signs of being overbought. Key support levels to watch include $4000 for international gold and 900 yuan per gram for domestic gold T+D [2][3]. - Long-term investors are encouraged to maintain a strategic allocation to gold, particularly if prices retreat to the $3800-$3900 range for international gold or below 880 yuan per gram for domestic gold T+D, using a pyramid strategy for accumulation [3][6]. Price Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices marks a shift from a single-factor influence to a multi-faceted driving force, with gold now serving as a hedge against currency risk and macroeconomic instability [4][6]. - The correlation between domestic and international gold prices remains strong, but domestic jewelry prices are significantly higher due to factors such as import taxes and seasonal demand [7].

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices, with prices reaching 1074 yuan per gram for gold jewelry and 845 yuan per gram for ICBC's gold bars, indicates a significant increase from earlier prices of 632 yuan per gram [1][2] - Gold's unique properties, including its chemical stability and resistance to oxidation, contribute to its status as the "king of precious metals," making it a valuable asset over time [2][4] - The global proven gold reserves are limited to 54,770 tons, with an annual production of 3,661 tons, suggesting that at current extraction rates, gold could be mined for only about 12 years [2][3] Group 2 - Gold's versatility in various applications, including electronics and medical fields, enhances its demand, with global technology gold demand reaching 326 tons in 2024, a 7% increase year-on-year [4][6] - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, with global purchases reaching 1,045 tons in 2024, highlighting gold's role as a stable asset not reliant on government credit [6][7] - The unique supply-demand dynamics in the gold market, with a total demand of 4,974 tons against a supply of 4,975 tons, create a tight balance that can lead to significant price fluctuations [7][8] Group 3 - The rising popularity of gold ETFs, with holdings increasing by 86.66% to 114.73 tons in 2024, indicates a growing recognition of gold as a key asset for investment diversification [9] - Gold's historical significance and cultural value, having been a symbol of wealth for over 7,000 years, further solidify its status as a precious commodity [13] - Current economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks are driving the investment value of gold, making it a wise choice for both central banks and individual investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current bank gold bar prices are closely linked to the global macro environment, with prices around 770 RMB per gram as of May 20, 2025, reflecting both financial and commodity attributes of physical gold [7]. Group 1: Bank Gold Bar Prices - The price of gold bars varies among banks, with the Agricultural Bank of China offering the highest price at 770.90 RMB per gram, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offers the lowest at 763.2 RMB per gram [4][5]. - Investment gold bar prices are typically based on the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 gold price, with an additional handling fee of 10 to 20 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The London gold price is at 2120 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold AU9999 main contract is priced at 478.5 RMB per gram, indicating a premium for craftsmanship gold bars of about 4.5% [7]. - The strong performance of the RMB has not led to a decrease in domestic gold bar prices, highlighting a contradiction where geopolitical risks in the Middle East increase demand for safe-haven assets [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should consider three key factors: currency hedging to mitigate single currency risk, the current low volatility of gold, and the cultural attributes of craftsmanship gold bars as a new choice for wealth inheritance [9]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation is increasing among domestic residents, with a reported 22% increase in transaction volume for the Industrial and Commercial Bank's gold bars [7].

2025.04. 29 4月22日，现货黄金价格一度突破3500美元/盎司的历史高位，点燃市场热情，但随后迅速回落，截至4月29日已跌至3324美元/盎司附近。 剧烈震荡下，部分投资者转向白银、铂金等贵金属，并推动其价格同步走强，其中COMEX白银期货近期最高触及35.5美元/盎司创12年新高，NYME铂 金期货冲破1000美元/盎司关口，年内累计涨幅约10%。 投资风向的转变，在消费市场上也有所体现。第一财经在上海看到，多家金店虽然人头攒动，但不少消费者不再只盯着黄金饰品，而是开始在铂金、白银 饰品柜台前驻足挑选。"最近来问铂金、白银首饰的顾客明显多了。"上海市区一家金饰品牌店员说，大家都觉得现在买黄金饰品太贵，相比之下，铂金和 白银首饰不仅价格更实惠，款式也很多样，很适合日常佩戴。 本文字数：1974，阅读时长大约3分钟 导读 ：贵金属市场投资风向转变。 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 封面图作者 | 第一财经 任玉明 价格反转不断，国际金价最近波动加剧。 期货市场的数据方面，截至4月29日收盘，沪金期货小幅收涨0.46%，主力合约2508以786.98元/克收盘。黄金期货全部合约成交759488手，持仓量减 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to a shift in investment focus towards silver and platinum, with silver futures reaching a 12-year high of $35.5 per ounce and platinum futures surpassing $1,000 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 10% [1][2] - As of April 29, 2023, spot gold prices fell to around $3,324 per ounce after peaking at $3,500, indicating a significant market correction [1][2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a slight increase in gold futures, with the main contract closing at 786.98 yuan per gram, while silver futures saw a minor rise of 0.12% [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer interest from gold jewelry to platinum and silver, as consumers find these alternatives more affordable and stylish for everyday wear [1] - Despite a decline in overall gold consumption, demand for investment gold bars remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 29.81% in gold bar and coin consumption [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to increasing industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic and electronic sectors, while platinum prices are recovering due to supply shortages [2][3] - Silver futures inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, indicating tightening supply conditions [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that investors should consider adjusting their precious metal portfolios based on the gold-silver ratio to balance risk and return objectives [3] - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is seen as a key factor supporting gold prices, although individual investors are advised to be cautious about the opportunity costs associated with gold investments [5]