动能指标方面，RSI维持在50上方并缓慢抬升，反映出前期回调后，市场情绪逐步趋于平衡。当前并未出现明显的超买或超卖信号，更像是一次震荡整理过 程。 布林带逐渐收窄，也印证了短线波动率下降的特征，价格在中轨附近反复拉锯，显示多空力量暂时处于相对均衡状态。 从市场反应来看，美元走弱并非单一经济数据触发，而是情绪层面的集中释放。美联储与美国政府之间的公开摩擦，使部分交易者对未来政策环境产生疑 虑。 央行是否能够在压力之下保持既有立场，成为影响美元预期的重要变量。在这种背景下，资金更倾向于暂时降低美元敞口，英镑/美元因此出现被动上行。 周一欧洲早盘，英镑/美元在1.3430一线附近获得明显支撑，市场情绪的变化更多来自美元端的波动，而非英镑自身出现了新的驱动因素。 不过，英镑一侧并非完全没有风险。英国经济基本面的变化仍是接下来市场关注的重点。尤其是即将公布的就业相关数据，可能会影响外界对英国央行政策 取向的判断。如果数据显示劳动力市场降温迹象加重，市场对政策前景的预期可能会随之调整，英镑的反弹节奏也可能受到限制。因此，当前的回升更像是 在多空因素交织下形成的阶段性表现，而非单边趋势的确认。 近期围绕美联储主席鲍威尔的争 ...

一、液化天然气浪潮 2026年将开启全球液化天然气(LNG)扩张浪潮，有人将其比作"海啸"式扩张。预计从2026年至2028年，全球将有大量的新的天然气液化产能投 产，成为史上规模最大的一轮液化天然气供给扩张。 天然气交易员将密切关注已进入启动阶段的美国液化天然气项目进展，以及预计于2026年至2027年投产的相关项目。液化天然气的产能扩张意味 着美国原料气需求将大幅增加，而原料气需求的预期增长发生延迟可能对亨利港期货价格形成压力。截至2025年12月，亨利港期货价格已上升至 每百万英热单位4.70美元以上。 预计非欧佩克产油国的原供应量将继续增长，可能对油价产生下行压力 鉴于石油需求、油价与股市之间的强相关性，人工智能可能成为2026年WTI原油价格的关键影响因素 2025年能源市场被频发的贸易紧张局势和地缘政治不确定性所笼罩，这一定程度上掩盖了天然气和石油市场正在发生的结构性转型。2026年是否 仍将延续这一局面？以下是影响2026年能源市场的五大关键因素。 2026年投产的的液化天然气还包括卡塔尔日产达43亿立方英尺的北方气田东部(North Field East)项目。随着北方气田东部项目、美国境内项 ...

当前盘面来看，其实震荡的行情改变不是很大，不管是日线周期还是H4周期，其实都没有太大的技术 改观，日线周期还是在中轨之上，是绝对的强势，只不过现在市场缺少上涨的动力，多头延续可能在本 周美联储利率决议后发生，到时候再看日线强阳的发展情况。H4周期就是标准的震荡区间，布林收 窄，均线粘合，周一的下跌看似要向下破位，但目前连阳的k线还是收高上涨，所以，区间震荡明显， 只要区间不破，就不必过分看多空的破位性行情。那么，今天的行情就先看张后看跌，亚欧盘预计会直 接上涨，4175激进可以做多，上方关注4230高点，不破就短线看，美盘可能会此压制点回落，破位再看 多头力度的延续性。 12月9日，周一现货黄金价格小幅回落，每盎司收报4190.48美元，下跌0.2%，而美国期金结算价则下跌 0.6%至每盎司4217.7美元，市场在美联储政策会议前夕的短暂喘息，投资者们正屏息以待美联储主席鲍 威尔的最新表态，同时地缘政治紧张局势、美元波动以及突发事件如日本地震，都在悄然影响着黄金的 走势。尽管金价短期小跌，但美联储鹰派降息预期、地缘政治紧张、货币波动和债券市场反应，都在为 黄金铺设长期上行路径。专家预测的5000美元目标并非遥 ...

由于市场参与者在几项关键的美国宏观经济数据发布之前削减了敞口，在周一稳步上涨之后，白银价格 有所回落。 周三(12月3日)亚洲时段，现货白银震荡走高后突然回调，白银价格日内跌幅超1.00%，报57.76美元/盎 司；由于交易员在即将到来的美国关键数据发布前获利了结，白银多头失去动能，本交易日关注美国 ADP就业变动和ISM服务业PMI数据。 【要闻速递】 地缘政治仍是推动避险需求的背景因素。即使白银的看涨势头暂时停止，但围绕俄罗斯和乌克兰局势的 不确定性将有助于维持一定程度的风险厌恶情绪。 【最新白银行情解析】 周二白银收锤子阳线，逼近前高，徘徊于日线布林上轨附近，4小时回踩56.60一线企稳，短线预计现货 银将继续上探59。白银走势下方关注58.10美元或57.70美元支撑；上方关注59.00美元或59.70美元阻力。 美元的温和复苏和美国国债收益率的走强给贵金属市场带来了压力，这种模式在之前的避险情绪中曾出 现过。 尽管如此，由于白银继续受益于广泛支撑的宏观环境，下行空间仍然受到控制。投资者预计美联储最早 将在下周的会议上放松政策，目前市场预计降息25个基点的可能性很大。这种鸽派倾向支撑了对无息资 产的需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent debate over "central bank independence" has significant implications for market risk sentiment, capital flows, and asset pricing, particularly affecting forex traders [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence allows monetary policy to focus on long-term goals like price stability and financial stability without short-term political interference [1]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, especially with external pressures for rate cuts, leading to uncertainty in the dollar's performance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market is experiencing a dual pull where potential easing could weaken the dollar in the short term, but fears of long-term inflation and financial stability could increase demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) emphasizing the necessity of central bank independence serve as a signal to the market, highlighting the importance of the Fed's future actions [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Forex traders focus on the dot plot and swap market trends rather than just central bank officials' statements, as expectations of forced rate cuts could lead to lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]. - The core logic in the forex market is influenced by emotional factors, with investors weighing concerns over "policy being hijacked" against confidence in "institutional resilience" [4]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Increased volatility is expected as discussions around central bank independence may lead to more frequent false breakouts and choppy market conditions, making position management more critical than directional bets [5]. - In times of dollar uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from their central banks' credibility, such as the euro and yen, which could provide stability and support during risk-off sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fluctuation range of the US dollar remains limited to recent levels as the market awaits two key data releases [1] Group 1 - The first key data is the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday [1] - The second key data is the preliminary benchmark revision data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for release next Wednesday [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.25% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.07% as of midday close [1] - The total market turnover reached 137.79 billion HKD [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO Inc. increasing over 4% and BYD Company Limited rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - Power equipment stocks continued their strong performance, with Harbin Electric Company Limited rising over 8% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks were active, with GF Securities Co., Ltd. increasing nearly 4% [1] - Gold stocks saw a general increase, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. rising over 4%, driven by risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [1] Group 3 - Cement and building materials stocks experienced some pullback, with Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. declining over 11% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited rising over 3% while Horizon Robotics fell over 3% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing a resurgence as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty, with current international gold prices surpassing $3,370 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase of the year [1] - The domestic gold price in China has reached 774.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 5 yuan, which translates to a 0.67% rise [1] - There is a slight discrepancy between domestic and international gold prices, with a difference of 0.24 yuan per gram, influenced by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and import costs [1] Group 2 - Various banks have set different prices for gold bars, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offering the highest at 794.76 yuan per gram, while other banks range from 787 to 789 yuan per gram [2] - Gold jewelry prices in retail stores are significantly higher, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook priced at 1,012 yuan and 1,008 yuan per gram respectively, indicating a premium due to craftsmanship and brand value [2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to higher demand for gold as a store of value [4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider gradual purchases of gold to mitigate risk, rather than investing all funds at once, and to wait for price corrections to average out investment costs [4] - The optimal time to sell gold is when domestic and international prices rise simultaneously, particularly when there is a daily increase of 5-10 yuan per gram, to avoid losses [6] - The potential recovery price for gold at retail stores may be lower than the market price, emphasizing the importance of timing in selling gold assets [6]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the important US inflation data, with traders delaying large-scale positions for more guidance [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future policy path, impacting the US dollar and gold prices [2] - Gold's performance is highly dependent on interest rate expectations and dollar fluctuations, with safe-haven demand providing solid support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technically, gold remains in a bullish short-term trend, rebounding from the vicinity of the 200-period simple moving average [3] - A breakout above the $3350 resistance zone would confirm further upward momentum, targeting the $3380 area and potentially reaching the $3400 round number [3] - Conversely, if gold falls below the $3320 short-term support, a bearish pattern may establish, with potential declines to the $3245 monthly low or even down to the $3200 area for new support [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are urging to seize the opportunity presented by the fluctuations in the US dollar to enhance the international status of the euro [1][2] - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel highlighted that there are multiple signs indicating global investors are shifting their focus towards Europe, with a positive confidence spillover effect observed [1] - Data shows that since 2025, the US dollar has weakened against all major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, allowing space for the euro as investors sell off dollar assets [1] Group 2 - Spanish Central Bank Governor José Luis Escrivá stated that the dominance of the US dollar in the global reserve currency system may have peaked, and the euro has the opportunity to strengthen its role in international trade [2] - German Central Bank Governor Joachim Nagel supports enhancing the euro's attractiveness but warns that an excessively weak dollar may not align with European interests [2] - ECB officials believe the current situation provides a strategic window for the euro, emphasizing the need to attract more international capital to improve the regional financing environment and mitigate financial fragmentation risks among member states [2]