Core Viewpoint - The recent debate over "central bank independence" has significant implications for market risk sentiment, capital flows, and asset pricing, particularly affecting forex traders [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence allows monetary policy to focus on long-term goals like price stability and financial stability without short-term political interference [1]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, especially with external pressures for rate cuts, leading to uncertainty in the dollar's performance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market is experiencing a dual pull where potential easing could weaken the dollar in the short term, but fears of long-term inflation and financial stability could increase demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) emphasizing the necessity of central bank independence serve as a signal to the market, highlighting the importance of the Fed's future actions [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Forex traders focus on the dot plot and swap market trends rather than just central bank officials' statements, as expectations of forced rate cuts could lead to lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]. - The core logic in the forex market is influenced by emotional factors, with investors weighing concerns over "policy being hijacked" against confidence in "institutional resilience" [4]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Increased volatility is expected as discussions around central bank independence may lead to more frequent false breakouts and choppy market conditions, making position management more critical than directional bets [5]. - In times of dollar uncertainty, some currencies may benefit from their central banks' credibility, such as the euro and yen, which could provide stability and support during risk-off sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fluctuation range of the US dollar remains limited to recent levels as the market awaits two key data releases [1] Group 1 - The first key data is the non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday [1] - The second key data is the preliminary benchmark revision data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for release next Wednesday [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.25% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.07% as of midday close [1] - The total market turnover reached 137.79 billion HKD [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO Inc. increasing over 4% and BYD Company Limited rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - Power equipment stocks continued their strong performance, with Harbin Electric Company Limited rising over 8% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks were active, with GF Securities Co., Ltd. increasing nearly 4% [1] - Gold stocks saw a general increase, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. rising over 4%, driven by risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [1] Group 3 - Cement and building materials stocks experienced some pullback, with Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. declining over 11% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited rising over 3% while Horizon Robotics fell over 3% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing a resurgence as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty, with current international gold prices surpassing $3,370 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase of the year [1] - The domestic gold price in China has reached 774.42 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of over 5 yuan, which translates to a 0.67% rise [1] - There is a slight discrepancy between domestic and international gold prices, with a difference of 0.24 yuan per gram, influenced by factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and import costs [1] Group 2 - Various banks have set different prices for gold bars, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offering the highest at 794.76 yuan per gram, while other banks range from 787 to 789 yuan per gram [2] - Gold jewelry prices in retail stores are significantly higher, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook priced at 1,012 yuan and 1,008 yuan per gram respectively, indicating a premium due to craftsmanship and brand value [2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar, leading to higher demand for gold as a store of value [4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider gradual purchases of gold to mitigate risk, rather than investing all funds at once, and to wait for price corrections to average out investment costs [4] - The optimal time to sell gold is when domestic and international prices rise simultaneously, particularly when there is a daily increase of 5-10 yuan per gram, to avoid losses [6] - The potential recovery price for gold at retail stores may be lower than the market price, emphasizing the importance of timing in selling gold assets [6]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is cautious ahead of the important US inflation data, with traders delaying large-scale positions for more guidance [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future policy path, impacting the US dollar and gold prices [2] - Gold's performance is highly dependent on interest rate expectations and dollar fluctuations, with safe-haven demand providing solid support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technically, gold remains in a bullish short-term trend, rebounding from the vicinity of the 200-period simple moving average [3] - A breakout above the $3350 resistance zone would confirm further upward momentum, targeting the $3380 area and potentially reaching the $3400 round number [3] - Conversely, if gold falls below the $3320 short-term support, a bearish pattern may establish, with potential declines to the $3245 monthly low or even down to the $3200 area for new support [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are urging to seize the opportunity presented by the fluctuations in the US dollar to enhance the international status of the euro [1][2] - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel highlighted that there are multiple signs indicating global investors are shifting their focus towards Europe, with a positive confidence spillover effect observed [1] - Data shows that since 2025, the US dollar has weakened against all major currencies tracked by Bloomberg, allowing space for the euro as investors sell off dollar assets [1] Group 2 - Spanish Central Bank Governor José Luis Escrivá stated that the dominance of the US dollar in the global reserve currency system may have peaked, and the euro has the opportunity to strengthen its role in international trade [2] - German Central Bank Governor Joachim Nagel supports enhancing the euro's attractiveness but warns that an excessively weak dollar may not align with European interests [2] - ECB officials believe the current situation provides a strategic window for the euro, emphasizing the need to attract more international capital to improve the regional financing environment and mitigate financial fragmentation risks among member states [2]

Group 1 - The core issue facing Asian investors is how to hedge against significant fluctuations in the US dollar, particularly in light of the recent volatility of the New Taiwan Dollar, which surged nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day fluctuation since the 1980s [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies have accumulated approximately $700 billion in US dollar investments over the past decade, seeking higher overseas bond yields to meet policy obligations and attract depositors [1] - The cost of hedging against currency fluctuations has increased significantly, with the cost of using non-deliverable forward contracts to hedge New Taiwan Dollar fluctuations reaching 24%, well above normal levels [1] Group 2 - Some investors believe that as long as trade surpluses continue to generate a need for US dollars to flow back into the market, the risk of a significant currency collapse is low [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened by purchasing nearly $17 billion since May to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from appreciating beyond its pegged range against the US dollar [2] - The Bank of Korea's governor has warned that as long as global trade uncertainties persist, volatility in Asian currencies will continue, driven by unpredictable outcomes in trade negotiations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major sugar - producing areas (except Yunnan) have started to close, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption has supported sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has begun, but due to weather factors, production is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to oscillate and weaken in the short - term. Attention should be paid to domestic sugarcane and beet planting and growth, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to US tariff increases on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons and imports decreasing by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. High temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price Data - From April 12 to April 13, 2025, the price of US sugar remained at $17.83, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton remained at $65.84, with a 0.00% change [3] - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 6160.0 to 6170.0, a 0.16% increase; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 6060.0 to 6025.0, a - 0.58% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.93% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14300.0 to 14000.0, a - 2.10% change [3] Spread Data - From April 12 to April 13, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, sugar 01 basis, sugar 05 basis, sugar 09 basis, cotton 01 basis, cotton 05 basis, and cotton 09 basis all had a 0.00% change [3] Import Price and Profit Data - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased from 78.55 to 78.3, a - 0.32% change; the sugar import profit remained at 1155.0, with a 0.00% change [3] Option Data - The implied volatility of SR505C6100 is 0.1404, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR505 is 10.74; the implied volatility of SR505P6100 is 0.3474. The implied volatility of CF505C12800 is 0.2278, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF505 is 12.01; the implied volatility of CF505P12800 is 0.1399 [3] Warehouse Receipt Data - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained at 27410.0, with a 0.00% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 9380.0 to 9507.0, a 1.35% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [9]