Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For coking coal, with the expected continued rise in terminal molten iron and stable demand support, along with improved steel mill profitability and some coke enterprises' limited production due to poor profitability, the current restocking demand remains, but the procurement of raw materials is relatively cautious, and high - priced resources have general transactions. It is expected that the coking coal price may remain stable in the short term [2]. - For coke, with high - stable steel mill开工, increased restocking demand from some steel mills, active purchasing by intermediate speculative traders, smooth coke shipments, and enhanced cost support from the recent price increase of some coking coal, it is expected that coke prices may remain stable in the short term [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Part of the mines are resuming production, but the output has not returned to normal. Downstream restocking demand is gradually released, and the inventory in the production area is decreasing. The online auction performance has improved, and the prices of some high - quality resources and previously oversold coal varieties have increased slightly, with a neutral outlook [3]. - The spot price is 940, and the basis is 125.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [3]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [3]. - The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish signal [3]. Factors - Bullish factors include the increase in molten iron production and the difficulty in increasing supply [5]. - Bearish factors are the slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel prices [5]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - Coke enterprises' production load is basically stable, with some having limited production due to profit losses. With the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of intermediate traders and the continuous warming of steel mill demand, coke enterprises' shipments are smooth, and the inventory has decreased, with a neutral outlook [9]. - The spot price is 1320, and the basis is - 68.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures, a bearish signal [9]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons compared to last week, which is bullish [9]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [9]. - The main position of coke is net short, with a decrease in short positions, a bearish signal [9]. Factors - Bullish factors are the increase in molten iron production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [11]. - Bearish factors are the squeezed profit margin of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [11]. Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons compared to last week [21]. - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons compared to last week [24]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared to last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74%, the same as last week [38]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan compared to last week [42].

Group 1 - The average price of coke in Shanxi region is 1300 CNY/ton, showing a weak performance compared to the same period last week [1] - On June 20, some enterprises in Xinjiang reduced their coke ex-factory prices by 50 CNY/ton [1] - The mainstream dry coke price in Heze market remains stable at 890 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - As of June 23, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1385.0 CNY/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [2] - The highest price reached 1394.0 CNY/ton and the lowest was 1370.0 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 21,314 lots [2] Group 3 - On June 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 90 coke futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Qinhuangdao coal inventory recorded 5.78 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Recent reports indicate that coke profits are continuously shrinking, leading to a decline in independent coke enterprises' output and a reduction in overall supply [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of coking coal may weaken in the short - term due to factors such as stricter environmental and safety inspections leading to a slight decline in coal mine production, weak downstream demand, increasing coal mine shipment pressure, and a decrease in raw material demand caused by more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills during the off - season of finished product consumption [3]. - The report expects that coke will continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term. Although coke production has been cut due to losses and environmental protection factors, steel mills' strategy of controlling purchases remains unchanged, resulting in significant shipment pressure on coke enterprises [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Recently, environmental and safety inspections have become stricter, leading to a slight decline in coal mine production, but it remains at a relatively high level. Downstream demand is weak, with coal - using enterprises purchasing in small volumes, increasing coal mine shipment pressure and causing some mine sites to lower their quotes. The weakening coke price also provides little support for coking coal prices. This situation is considered bearish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 940, with a basis of 145, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 774 million tons, port inventory is 312 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 669.5 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1775.5 million tons, a decrease of 19.3 million tons from last week, which is considered bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut for coke, lowering market sentiment. During the off - season of finished product consumption, more blast furnace overhauls in steel mills and increased control of arrivals by coke and steel plants have further reduced the rigid demand for raw materials. Therefore, the short - term coking coal price is expected to weaken [3]. 3.2 Daily View - Coke - **Fundamentals**: Affected by environmental inspections and profit factors, the enthusiasm of some coke enterprises in the production area has been dampened, leading to voluntary production cuts. As the decline in raw material coal prices narrows, the cost pressure on coke enterprises has increased, and coke supply continues to shrink. This situation is considered bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1300, with a basis of - 84.5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is considered bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 642.8 million tons, port inventory is 203.1 million tons, and independent coke enterprise inventory is 87.3 million tons. The total sample inventory is 933.2 million tons, a decrease of 15.2 million tons from last week, which is considered bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is considered bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The supply - demand contradiction in the current coke market remains unresolved. Although coke enterprises have continuously cut production due to losses and environmental protection factors, steel mills' strategy of controlling purchases remains unchanged, resulting in significant shipment pressure on coke enterprises. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, coke is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Coking Coal - Factors - **Bullish factors**: An increase in molten iron production and limited increase in supply [5]. - **Bearish factors**: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. 3.4 Coke - Factors - **Bullish factors**: An increase in molten iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Bearish factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - **Port inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 million tons, a decrease of 11.1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent coke enterprise inventory**: Independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory is 669.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.4 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel mill inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 774 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from last week [25]. 3.6 Other Data - **Coke oven capacity utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises across the country is 74%, which is the same as last week [36]. - **Average profit per ton of coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping over 3%, indicating a bearish outlook for the market in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 8, coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1465.5 yuan, with the main contract closing at 1466.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 3.04% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains neutral to bearish, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals post-holiday [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures predicts that both coking coal and coke will continue to exhibit weakness, citing limited impact from recent financial policies and a lack of substantial positive news from the real estate sector [2]. - Dayue Futures suggests that the likelihood of further declines in coking coal prices is high due to a continued loose supply environment and weak downstream demand, particularly as steel mills face pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights the importance of monitoring the price range of 1350-1400 yuan, indicating that the failure of the second round of price increases and seasonal demand peaks may lead to a downward adjustment in prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the coking coal futures market is experiencing weakness, with the main contract trading at 1531.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.08% [1] - As of April 16, the price of dry quenching coke in Tangshan, Hebei, has increased by 55 CNY/ton, reaching a range of 1595-1630 CNY/ton [2] - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises has risen to 73.51%, with an average daily output of 524,500 tons, marking a three-month high [2] Group 2 - The overall inventory of coking coal remains high, with a slight decrease in independent coking enterprises' inventory, while steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased by 0.54% to 6.644 million tons [2] - The increase in domestic coking coal prices has made imported coking coal more cost-effective, leading to a significant rise in port inventories, which increased by 163,300 tons to 2.9363 million tons [2] - Institutions suggest that the coking coal price is likely to remain weak in the short term due to various macroeconomic disturbances and reduced trade purchasing enthusiasm [3]