Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1246.0 yuan, with a current price of 1232.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.70% [1] - Institutions predict that coking coal prices are likely to remain strong and fluctuate [2] - The supply of coking coal is currently abundant, with a slight increase in terminal inventory and a significant rise in total inventory, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [2] Group 2 - Coking coal production has slightly decreased, but the recovery of coal mines post-New Year is progressing well, maintaining a high level of Mongolian coal imports [3] - Demand from steel mills is improving marginally, with some mills actively purchasing due to low inventory levels and upcoming holiday replenishment needs [3] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with speculative trading activity increasing, leading to a reduction in the auction failure rate for large mines [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly. The fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, with a cumulative decline of 200 - 220 yuan/ton in four rounds. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Affected by heavy pollution weather, some coking enterprises further limited production, and coal - coke prices were still in a weak bottom - seeking stage. As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity will gradually increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market situation: The domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly this week. The fourth - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, and the cumulative decline in four rounds was 200 - 220 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Some coking enterprises further limited production due to heavy pollution weather, and coal - coke prices were in a weak bottom - seeking stage [2]. - Outlook: As the year - end approaches, winter storage intensity will increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 2156.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.13 million tons (0.47%); the total coke inventory was 915.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04 million tons (0.33%) [4]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 227.43 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons (0.38%) [4]. - **Profit**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton (- 22.22%) [4]. Market Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke main contracts, the average price summary of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coking coal, the summary price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, the first - grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel's metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal and coke, the daily output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills [6][8][11][14][17][19][23][25][27]. All data sources are from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report views the coking coal and coke market as bearish, but does not recommend opening short positions at the current level. Existing short positions can be held for observation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal and coke futures prices hit new lows. With the supply - demand of coking coal remaining loose, the price of coking coal for blast furnaces continues to weaken, and the cost support declines. The market is pessimistic about future demand, and the coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - The Jm2509 contract closed at 827.5, down 1.72% from the previous trading day's close; the J2509 contract closed at 1406.5, down 0.78%. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 825.0, down 0.3% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1413.5, up 0.5% [1] 3.2 Important Information - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,900 tons or 0.5%. The total inventory of five major steel products was 13.9854 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 321,200 tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 9.0456 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0%, with building material consumption up 1.6% and plate consumption down 2.6% [1] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.936 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 6.248 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons. The daily output of clean coal was 0.786 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 4.475 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 371,000 tons [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The coking coal and coke futures hit new lows. With the supply - demand of coking coal remaining loose, the price of coking coal for blast furnaces continues to decline, and the cost support weakens, with further price cuts expected. On the demand side, the apparent demand for five major steel products declined this week, with supply increasing and demand decreasing. The market is pessimistic about future demand, and there is no driving force for a rebound in the coking coal and coke futures, so they are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The coking coal and coke market is still bearish, but opening short positions at the current level is not recommended. Existing short positions can be held for observation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping over 3%, indicating a bearish outlook for the market in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 8, coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1465.5 yuan, with the main contract closing at 1466.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 3.04% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains neutral to bearish, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals post-holiday [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures predicts that both coking coal and coke will continue to exhibit weakness, citing limited impact from recent financial policies and a lack of substantial positive news from the real estate sector [2]. - Dayue Futures suggests that the likelihood of further declines in coking coal prices is high due to a continued loose supply environment and weak downstream demand, particularly as steel mills face pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights the importance of monitoring the price range of 1350-1400 yuan, indicating that the failure of the second round of price increases and seasonal demand peaks may lead to a downward adjustment in prices [4].