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有色金属行业报告:指标收紧叠加环保督察,钨价继续上涨
China Post Securities· 2025-05-19 02:43
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to consider long positions. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the price difference between New York and London copper is narrowing, which may indicate a loss of arbitrage profits [5] - Tungsten prices have continued to rise, increasing by 14.84% since early April due to reduced mining quotas and environmental inspections, leading to supply constraints [6] - The report suggests that rare earth export controls may be relaxed, and it recommends positioning for potential opportunities as the market remains cautious [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper decrease by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, and zinc by 1.27%. Precious metals experienced a decline in COMEX gold by 1.51% and silver by 1.99% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible copper inventory increased by 28,367 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, and zinc decreased by 3,175 tons [27]
有色金属行业报告(2025.05.12-2025.05.16):指标收紧叠加环保督察,钨价继续上涨
China Post Securities· 2025-05-19 02:17
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market has adjusted adequately, and it is now a good time to go long. The recent U.S. CPI data has influenced gold prices, and the resilience of inflation supports the bullish outlook for gold as long as long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4% [4] - For copper, trade pricing is expected to reverse, with significant inventory accumulation noted in COMEX copper. The report suggests that the demand side remains favorable due to the suspension of tariffs, particularly for aluminum, which is recommended for investment [5] - Tungsten prices continue to rise due to tightened production indicators and environmental inspections, with a 14.84% increase since early April. The report highlights strong demand from the manufacturing sector and potential applications in high-tech industries [6] - The rare earth market is experiencing price stabilization, with potential easing of export controls. The report advises investors to consider buying on dips as the market awaits developments regarding export regulations [6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.5%, ranking 16th among sectors [13] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals prices: LME copper decreased by 1.92%, aluminum by 0.36%, zinc by 1.27%, lead increased by 0.65%, and tin decreased by 0.03%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 1.51%, silver by 1.99%, while palladium rose by 1.15% and platinum fell by 2.37% [20][21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase of 28,367 tons for copper, while aluminum saw a decrease of 2,370 tons, zinc decreased by 3,175 tons, lead decreased by 1,697 tons, and nickel decreased by 3,740 tons [27]