Economic Impact - China's travel advisory against Japan has led to a significant decline in Japanese tourism, with Chinese tourists accounting for 21.3% to 35% of total foreign tourist spending in Japan in 2024 [2] - From November 15 to 18, Chinese airlines canceled approximately 500,000 tickets to Japan, representing 32% of the booking volume, potentially costing Japan around 2.2 trillion yen, equivalent to over 100 billion RMB [2] - Japan's cultural and seafood industries are also suffering, with many scheduled events being postponed or canceled, leading to losses in the film industry estimated in the tens of billions of RMB [4] Military Pressure - As of December 4, the number of Chinese vessels in the East Asia sea exceeded 100, creating a significant military presence [5] - Chinese J-15 fighter jets successfully locked onto Japanese F-15s at distances of 50 km and 150 km, indicating a substantial advancement in China's military capabilities [5] Legal and Diplomatic Response - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi utilized international law to counter Japan's claims regarding Taiwan, referencing historical documents and international resolutions that affirm Taiwan as part of China [7] - This legal argument effectively undermines Japan's position on Taiwan, framing any Japanese intervention as a violation of post-World War II international order [8]

特朗普此前公开说，已经授权美国中央情报局在委境内实施秘密行动，不排除对委动武的可能性。 特朗普先前多次威胁，将把针对委内瑞拉贩毒集团的打击行动从海上扩大到陆地，美军将"很快"展开地 面行动。 近期，美国以"缉毒"为由，在委内瑞拉附近加勒比海域部署多艘军舰。9月初以来，美军已在加勒比海 和东太平洋击沉超过20艘美方指称的"贩毒船"，造成80多人死亡。美国宣称实施海上行动的地点都在公 海。 美国缉毒署近年报告则显示，委内瑞拉并非流入美国毒品的主要来源地。委内瑞拉政府多次指责美国意 图通过军事威胁推动委政权更迭，同时在拉美进行军事扩张。 美国近来在加勒比地区部署包括"福特"号航空母舰，总兵力达到约1.5万人。据美联社报道，这是美军 数十年来在加勒比地区最大规模军事部署。美军高官更是密集造访加勒比地区，增加了外界对于美国军 事打击委内瑞拉的担忧。 企图掐断委经济命脉 多名消息人士说，美国10日在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押的一艘大型油轮正驶向休斯敦。由于油轮体积过 大，无法通过休斯敦航道，美方人员将把原油搬卸分装到体形较小的船只，再运到休斯敦港。 新华社北京12月13日电 美国总统特朗普12日再次向委内瑞拉政府发出威胁，宣称 ...

到了2024年，随着反对派的推进加快，政府军的溃败，外汇储备几乎已用尽，最后那点钱估计是用来安排官员撤离或购买机票的。央行官员后来透露，战争 的巨大开支已经消耗殆尽。而黄金为什么一直没有卖掉？因为黄金是叙利亚央行的货币担保，如果把它卖掉，叙利亚镑将完全丧失信任，市场上将没有人愿 意持有叙利亚镑。因此，央行一直将黄金作为支撑货币流通的保障。 到了2025年，新政府上台后，首先进行的工作就是盘点国家资产，黄金成为了最宝贵 的资源。按照当前的金价计算，叙利亚的黄金储备大约值22亿美元，虽然足以让国家喘一口气，但远远不足以支撑国家的重建工作。叙利亚的经济已经萎缩 了85%，从战争前的几百亿GDP下降到现在的几十亿，出口也从180亿美元降到了18亿美元，失业率更是居高不下。幸好，海湾国家伸出了援手，5月时向叙 利亚央行存入了一笔资金，帮助稳定了叙利亚的汇率。6月，SWIFT国际支付系统也恢复了部分转账功能。联合国安理会在7月召开会议，讨论叙利亚的经济 困境，指出叙利亚的经济已经严重混乱。新政府呼吁取消制裁，提出振兴经济的计划，希望吸引难民回国。 黄金储备的具体数据来自世界黄金协会，叙利亚从2011年起的黄金储备量一直稳 ...

因为这家智库2023年、2024年、2025年连续三年发布了关于台海冲突的兵棋推演，其中2024年 推演的是核武器（核威慑），2025年推演的是围困。 结合其他美国智库的表现，笔者大致点评如下： 第一，面对台湾（问题），美国智库的学者普遍有一种圣母和救世主心态。 美国智库先是开出了武力介入和经济制裁两剂猛药，随着中国 实力的增长，相对温柔的外交斡旋"药方"也出现了。归根到 底，解决台湾问题，中国有自己的策略和节奏，来自美国的干 预，不会实质影响两岸的统一进程。美国智库的推演，不过是 隔靴搔痒而已。 作者：王义伟 封图：视觉中国 对于多家美国智库近些年陆续发布的针对台海局势的兵棋推演（wargame），笔者一直兴趣不 大。原因在于这些智库里那些在其母国土生土长的所谓中国问题专家，对于现代中国的政治、经 济、军事以及中国历史、国共历史、台湾问题由来等基础性知识的储备太薄弱了。基础不牢，发布 的报告就漏洞百出。 之所以还想谈谈这个话题，是因为这几天日本和台湾媒体在炒一盘冷饭。 这盘冷饭就是美国智库战略与国际研究中心（CSIS，下称"战国中心"）于2023年1月发布的一份 报告，题目是"下一场战争的第一场战役：中国入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the recent wargaming reports by American think tanks regarding the Taiwan Strait situation, arguing that the foundational knowledge of these experts about modern China is insufficient, leading to flawed conclusions [2][4]. Group 1: Wargaming Reports - The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report in January 2023 titled "The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan," which outlined 24 battle scenarios, with the US, Japan, and Taiwan winning in 22 of them [4][5]. - The report has been widely circulated and commented on by Japanese and Taiwanese media, indicating a coordinated narrative supporting Japanese Prime Minister's statements on Taiwan [6][7]. - CSIS has conducted wargaming exercises for three consecutive years, with different focuses each year: nuclear deterrence in 2024 and blockade scenarios in 2025, totaling 65 scenarios across all years [8][11][12]. Group 2: American Think Tanks' Perspectives - Analysts from American think tanks exhibit a "savior complex" regarding Taiwan, influenced by historical, political, and financial factors, leading to a biased perspective [9]. - The reports acknowledge the significant military and economic disparity between Taiwan and China, emphasizing that Taiwan cannot face China alone and requires US assistance to maintain its democratic system [10]. - The wargaming exercises are criticized for their limited practical military value, as they primarily serve as a basis for future propaganda rather than actionable strategies [14][15]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - American think tanks have suggested two main responses to potential Chinese military actions: military intervention and economic sanctions, though the latter is seen as beyond their expertise [17][19]. - A new approach introduced by CSIS includes diplomatic mediation, suggesting that the US should provide China with a way to save face, such as allowing international observers in Taiwan's customs and reiterating the "1992 Consensus" [20][22]. - The article argues that ultimately, China's strategy regarding Taiwan will not be significantly influenced by American interventions, rendering the think tanks' wargaming efforts largely ineffective [24][25].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint discusses the recent "28-point" ceasefire agreement proposed by Trump, which requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1][5][6] - The existing political system in Ukraine makes it difficult for many terms of the agreement to be implemented, and the neglect of Europe's strategic position creates uncertainty in future geopolitical situations [5][6] - The report suggests that the path to peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains long and complicated, with limited room for further declines in oil prices driven by news in the short term [5][6] Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to see both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][7] - The report recommends a defensive strategy centered on short- to medium-term credit bonds, while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][7] - The supply side of the city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with financing remaining tight but gradually improving as platforms transition to industrial entities [7][9] Company Analysis: Li Auto-W (02015.HK) - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 27.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, and a net profit loss of 620 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on performance [12][14] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased manufacturing costs from a recall [12][14] - The company is restructuring its management model to focus on user value and efficiency, aiming to build a complete AI system for its vehicles, with expectations for significant performance improvements in future chip designs [12][14]

Core Points - Serbian President Vucic stated that the NIS refinery, controlled by Russian enterprises, will cease operations within four days if the U.S. does not lift sanctions, which could lead to significant economic troubles for Serbia [1] - NIS currently faces difficulties due to a lack of crude oil supply, and while Serbia has sufficient fuel reserves for short-term needs, the shutdown of NIS would disrupt the production of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, posing risks to national security [1] - NIS produces approximately 80% of Serbia's fuel market, making it critical for the country's energy supply [1][2] Company Overview - NIS is partially owned by Russian companies, with 44.9% and 11.3% of shares held by Russian oil and gas firms, while the Serbian government holds 29.9% [2] - The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Russian oil industry affecting NIS, with measures taking effect on October 9 [2] - NIS has requested temporary relief from sanctions during negotiations for the sale of Russian-held shares, but has not received a response from the U.S. [2] Government Response - The Serbian government has approved the import of 38,000 tons of gasoline and 66,000 tons of diesel as a national reserve [1] - Vucic proposed that the U.S. grant NIS a 50-day period to sell Russian shares, with the possibility of the Serbian government taking over NIS if the sale is not completed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has begun selling its physical gold reserves to address the national budget deficit amid ongoing war conditions, marking a shift from gold as a safety asset to a liquidity tool [1][5]. Group 1: Changes in Gold Reserves - Approximately 57% of the national wealth fund's gold, equating to 232.6 tons, has been sold, leaving 173.1 tons as of November 1 [1]. - The transition from bookkeeping adjustments to actual physical delivery of gold signifies a change in approach, moving from internal transfers to tangible gold bars exchanged for cash [3]. Group 2: Economic Pressures and Policy Adjustments - External financing pressures have increased due to sanctions freezing foreign reserves and declining oil and gas revenues, leading to an expanding budget deficit [3]. - The Russian government has eliminated VAT on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand, indicating a shift in policy to open gold access to the general public [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical precedents show that countries like Iceland, Greece, and Venezuela have resorted to selling gold during financial crises when external financing was blocked and internal liquidity was constrained [5]. - The current situation in Russia reflects a similar pattern where gold is being utilized not just as a store of wealth but as a means to sustain economic operations [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Strategy - Russia is primarily selling gold bars in the domestic market to avoid price volatility associated with international sales and to manage price expectations [7]. - The sale of gold is seen as a necessary measure to maintain economic stability, with the potential for further sales depending on the ongoing war and its financial implications [7]. Group 5: Future Implications - The continuation of the war will require significant funding, and post-war recovery will also necessitate cash flow for industrial revival and infrastructure repair [9]. - The choice to sell gold rather than print more currency aims to inject liquidity into the market while controlling inflationary pressures [9].

Group 1 - Serbian President Vucic stated that the NIS refinery, controlled by Russian enterprises, will cease operations within four days if the US does not lift sanctions, which could lead to significant economic troubles for Serbia [1][4] - NIS is currently facing difficulties due to a lack of crude oil supply, with Vucic emphasizing that the sanctions imposed on Russia are adversely affecting Serbia [1][3] - NIS produces approximately 80% of Serbia's fuel market, making it critical for the country's energy security, and experts warn that relying solely on imports will not save NIS from potential bankruptcy [3][4] Group 2 - Serbia has sufficient fuel reserves to meet short-term energy needs, with diesel reserves at 55,000 tons and gasoline reserves at 50,000 tons, expected to last until the end of December [3] - The Serbian government has approved the import of 38,000 tons of gasoline and 66,000 tons of diesel as part of national reserves [3] - The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the Russian oil industry affecting NIS, with the sanctions taking effect on October 9, and the US is seeking a complete withdrawal of Russian investment from NIS [4]

Group 1 - Japan's economy is under unprecedented pressure due to China's countermeasures, including the suspension of certain Japanese food imports and beef negotiations, exacerbating an already sluggish economic situation [1][4] - The offshore exchange rate of the US dollar to Japanese yen has surpassed 1:157, indicating a potential breach of the critical 160 mark, reflecting growing market panic [1] - Japanese companies like Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu Chemical derive over 20% of their revenue from China, with some key components having a dependency rate as high as 40%, highlighting the risks of economic sanctions [6] Group 2 - The idea of replicating the successful strategy against South Korea by restricting semiconductor materials to pressure China is fundamentally flawed, as China's semiconductor industry has developed a robust alternative system [4] - China's domestic market for semiconductor materials is projected to reach 120 billion yuan by 2024, with a domestic supply rate increasing from under 15% in 2020 to 25% [4] - The interdependence between Japan and China in the context of economic globalization means that any economic sanctions could backfire, potentially leading to a crisis for Japan [6][8] Group 3 - The current political and economic tensions between Japan and China necessitate a reevaluation of their relationship, with a focus on dialogue and cooperation as a potential path forward [8] - Open communication and mutually beneficial strategies are essential to avoid further economic damage and to seek a win-win situation for both nations [8]