Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.0% to 1.0% while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 2.4% [1] - Slovenia's GDP growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.6% in 2027 [2] Inflation and Employment - Inflation rates are projected to reach 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, both higher by 0.4 percentage points than previous forecasts [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 [2] Private and Public Spending - Private and public spending in Slovenia is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by winter or Christmas bonuses for employees [1] - Public investment is expected to remain high in 2026, supported by the European recovery and resilience fund [1] Wage Growth - Wage growth is projected to be 7.9% in 2025, followed by 5.7% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, influenced by public sector wage increases and labor shortages [2] Trade Balance - The contribution of foreign trade balance to Slovenia's economic growth is expected to remain neutral by the end of 2027, with exports continuing to grow due to increased demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a slower economic recovery than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Forecast - Slovenia's GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%, with a further increase to 2.3% expected in 2027 [1] - The economy experienced a contraction in Q1 of this year but rebounded in Q2 and Q3, with an overall growth rate of 0.8% anticipated for the year [1] Inflation and Long-term Projections - If food and energy price increases slow down, inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% by 2030 [1] - Mid-term GDP growth is expected to stabilize at approximately 2.1% [1] Structural Challenges - The IMF highlights ongoing structural reform challenges, including the need for improved efficiency in the public sector and tax system [1] - Slovenia needs to find additional funding sources for pension and long-term care systems [1] - Key challenges include labor shortages, administrative barriers, enhancing the innovation environment, and providing incentives for promising businesses, necessitating increased investment to boost productivity [1]

Core Insights - The European Commission's autumn economic forecast indicates that Ukraine's GDP growth is expected to decline from 2% to 1.6% due to ongoing attacks on key energy infrastructure and a decrease in agricultural output [1] - The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict is causing supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, leading to a projected GDP growth decline to 1.5% by 2026 [1] - Inflation in Ukraine has seen a rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9% as of September, and the weighted average inflation rate is expected to rise from 6.5% last year to 13.1% this year [1] - Despite an increase in military tax rates, Ukraine's fiscal deficit is projected to rise to 23.8% of GDP this year due to defense procurement and military personnel salary expenditures outpacing revenue growth [1] Economic Projections - Ukraine's defense and security spending is expected to remain high, with a forecasted fiscal deficit narrowing to 21.2% of GDP next year due to measures like enhanced customs management and increased bank income tax rates [2]

Core Insights - Sweden's inflation rate remained stable at 0.9% in October 2025, unchanged from September, while the core inflation rate also held steady at 3.1% [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The inflation rate in Sweden for October 2025 is reported at 0.9%, consistent with the previous month [1] - The core inflation rate is recorded at 3.1%, also unchanged from September [1] Group 2: Price Changes - Significant price increases were noted in food, particularly in candy and ice cream, which experienced the largest price hikes [1] - Transportation service prices rose, including ticket prices for international flights and railway travel [1] - Electricity prices saw an increase, while loan interest rates for owner-occupied homes and rental apartments decreased [1]

Core Insights - The final data from the German Federal Statistical Office indicates that the inflation rate in Germany for October 2025 is 2.3% [1] - Following increases in August and September, where inflation rates were 2.2% and 2.4% respectively, October saw a slight decrease in inflation [1] - Service prices continue to rise at a rate above the average, remaining a primary driver of inflation [1] Inflation Details - In October, service prices in Germany increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with significant price hikes in passenger transport services (11.4%) and social institution services (8.0%) [1] - Energy product prices saw a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, with household energy prices down by 1.7%, electricity prices down by 1.4%, and light fuel oil prices down by 6.0% [1] - Food prices increased by 1.3% year-on-year, showing a noticeable slowdown compared to previous months [1] Core Inflation Metrics - Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate for October stands at 2.5%, while the core inflation rate, excluding both food and energy prices, is at 2.8% [1] - Economists predict that the inflation rate in Germany will remain above 2% in the short term, but some analysts believe the peak of inflation following the Russia-Ukraine conflict has ended [1] - Multiple economic research institutions forecast a relatively moderate inflation rate for Germany this year, estimated at around 2.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Egypt's annual overall inflation rate slowed to 10.1% in October from 10.3% in September, indicating a slight easing in inflationary pressures [1] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Egypt rose from 260.9 points in September to 264.3 points in October, primarily driven by an increase in fuel prices [1] - Prices for vegetables, meat, dairy, clothing, and home appliances saw a slight increase in October compared to September, while prices for fish, fruits, and hotel services experienced a slight decline [1]

Core Insights - Turkey's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 32.87% year-on-year in October, a decrease from 33.29% in September, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 46.5 in October, indicating a continued contraction for the 19th consecutive month [1][2] Inflation and Price Changes - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 34.87% - Housing prices rose by 50.96% - Clothing and footwear prices increased by 7.98% - Household equipment prices rose by 28.9% - Healthcare prices increased by 32.06% - Communication prices rose by 19.35% - Education prices surged by 65.69% - Prices in hotels, cafes, and restaurants increased by 33.78% - Miscellaneous goods and services prices rose by 30.13% - Transportation prices increased by 27.33% - Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices rose by 27.56% - Cultural and entertainment prices increased by 25.32% [1] Economic Activity and Monetary Policy - Output is declining at a strong pace due to weak demand and slowing new orders, with both domestic and export markets showing low performance [2] - The Central Bank of Turkey lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 39.5% on October 23, marking the third rate cut since July [2] - The market anticipates that the policy rate will decrease to 37.5% by the end of 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The Mauritanian government has adopted a "budget-project" approach for fiscal management, enhancing transparency and accountability in budget execution [1] - The 2026 fiscal revenue is projected to reach 128.79 billion Ouguiya, a 10.11% increase from the revised 2025 budget of 116.96 billion Ouguiya [1] - Fiscal expenditure is expected to be 132.18 billion Ouguiya, reflecting a 10.96% increase from 119.12 billion Ouguiya in 2025 [1] - The national economic growth rate for 2026 is anticipated to be 5.1%, up from 4.1% in 2025, driven by increased natural gas production and investments in infrastructure and social projects [1] - Inflation is projected to be around 2% [1] - The government plans to allocate approximately 7 billion Ouguiya for social development projects, including urban development in Nouakchott, medical equipment procurement, employment support, and improving teacher housing [1] - The government is addressing rising prices by promoting local production, achieving self-sufficiency in rice, and significantly increasing vegetable cultivation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Nabiullina, stated that there are no signs of recession in the Russian economy and urged caution regarding such claims [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Over the past 12 months, the inflation rate in Russia has decreased to 8% [1]. - The increase in the key interest rate has facilitated moderate growth in credit and has helped to slow down inflation [1]. - The Central Bank of Russia forecasts that the inflation rate will decline to the target level of 4% by 2026 [1].

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 一图速览>> ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : | | Jan | Feb | 削一 Mar | Apr | May | -轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 75 | | 75 | | 75 | (50) | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 | | 25 | | | | | | | 2024 | | | | | | | | | 50 | | 25 | 25 | | 0000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 鲍威尔打压市场对于 12 月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT ...