Economic Data Impact - Pre-market futures are up following the release of important economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims, indicating market participants are optimistic about equities [1] - The Dow is up by 158 points, S&P 500 by 19 points, and Nasdaq by 80 points, following all-time closing highs for both the S&P and Nasdaq [2] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims reached 263K, the highest in almost four years, significantly exceeding the expected 235K and the previous week's revised figure of 236K [4] - Continuing Claims have dropped below 1.94 million for the first time in nearly three months, currently at 1.939 million, suggesting potential upward movement in the coming weeks [6] Inflation Metrics - The August CPI report shows a headline increase of 0.4%, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and doubling the previous month's 0.2% [7] - Year-over-year CPI stands at 2.9%, up 20 basis points from July, while Core CPI is at 3.1%, aligning with expectations and indicating inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2.0% [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting is high, with discussions centered on a potential cut of either 25 or 50 basis points [10] - If rate cuts occur as anticipated, interest rates could end 2025 between 3.25% and 3.50%, a significant shift from previous years [11]

（原标题：克罗地亚8月通货膨胀率4.1％） 据克商业日报9月2日报道，欧盟统计局发布的首份估算数据显示，克罗地亚8月份以协调消费者物 价指数（HICP）衡量的年通胀率为4.6%。较去年同期上涨4.1% ，与7月份持平，打破了连续三个月同 比通胀加速的趋势，但仍率在欧元区位居前列，仅次于爱沙尼亚。 ...

Group 1 - The Thai Research Center has revised its inflation forecast for Thailand in 2025 from 0.3% to 0.1% [1][2] - In August, Thailand's inflation rate was recorded at -0.79%, marking the fifth consecutive month of negative inflation and the lowest level since January 2024 [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to a broad range of products, with 183 items (approximately 40% of the inflation basket of 464 items) showing price decreases compared to July [1] Group 2 - Core inflation in August 2025 remains positive at 0.81%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about high living costs despite some price reductions [1] - Prices for certain goods, such as instant food, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials, continue to rise, contributing to a decrease in consumer confidence index to 47.9 [1] - The forecast for the third quarter indicates negative inflation slightly below expectations, while the fourth quarter is expected to turn positive but still below previous forecasts due to factors like falling domestic fuel prices and reduced domestic demand [2]

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's Ministry of Finance predicts an inflation rate of 5.4% for the year 2025, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the April forecast of 5.1% and 0.8 percentage points higher than the initial prediction of 4.6% [1] - The increase in inflation is attributed to changes in the prices of imported commodities and adjustments in tax rates for specific goods and services [1] - The Ministry forecasts that by the beginning of 2026, Azerbaijan's external debt will reach $4.87 billion, domestic debt will amount to $11.84 billion, and the total public debt will be $16.71 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has revised its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the economy [1] Economic Forecasts - The inflation rate forecast for Brazil in 2025 has been lowered from 5.05% to 4.95% [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2026 has been adjusted down from 4.41% to 4.4% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 2.21% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 is maintained at 1.87% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The market predicts that the benchmark interest rate for Brazil will remain at 15% in 2025 [1] - The interest rate forecast for 2026 is set at 12.5% [1] - The exchange rate forecast for the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 1 USD to 5.6 BRL [1] - The exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026 is also unchanged at 1 USD to 5.7 BRL [1]

Core Viewpoint - Uzbekistan's government is implementing measures to ensure that annual increases in wages, pensions, and allowances exceed the inflation rate, aiming to enhance residents' real income and social security levels [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The "Uzbekistan 2026-2028 Fiscal Strategy" outlines a series of measures to raise wages, pensions, and allowances above the inflation rate each year [1] - The Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to tighten social tax benefits to supplement the pension fund [1] Group 2: Taxation and Budget Allocations - Service industry taxpayers will continue to pay a reduced social tax rate of 1% until 2028, applicable only to salaries exceeding 3 million soums (approximately 235 USD) and for individuals under 30 years of age [1] - It is projected that the national budget will allocate over 20 trillion soums (15.8 billion USD) to the pension fund by 2025, increasing to 26 trillion soums (20.5 billion USD) by 2028 [1]

Core Insights - Brazil's National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose by 0.26% month-on-month in July, up from 0.24% in June, indicating a slight increase in inflation pressures [1] - The annual inflation rate for the 12 months ending in July is 5.23%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous month's 5.35% [1] Inflation Drivers - The primary driver of inflation in July was residential electricity prices, which have been a consistent factor since May and June [1] - The red flag pricing mechanism for electricity remains in effect, with an additional charge of 4.46 Brazilian Reais for every 100 kWh consumed [1] - Residential electricity prices have increased by 10.18% in the first seven months of the year, the highest increase for this period since 2018, compared to 13.78% in the same period of that year [1] Price Movements - Food and beverage prices decreased by 0.27% in July, while clothing and communication prices fell by 0.54% and 0.09%, respectively [1] - Household food prices saw a month-on-month decline of 0.69%, with significant drops in prices for potatoes (down 20.27%), onions (down 13.26%), and rice (down 2.89%) [1] - Prices for dining out increased by 0.87% [1] Additional Consumer Price Index Data - The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose by 0.21% month-on-month in July, with a year-to-date increase of 3.30% and a 12-month cumulative increase of 5.13% [1]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to lower the three key interest rates in the Eurozone by 25 basis points, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year [2] - Following this decision, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate are now set at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2] - The ECB forecasts that the Eurozone's overall inflation rate will be around 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and return to 2.0% in 2027 [2] - The projected average GDP growth rates for the Eurozone are 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [2] - The ECB acknowledges that short-term trade policy uncertainties may continue to suppress business investment and exports, but increased real income and labor market resilience will support household spending [2] - Improved financing conditions are expected to enhance the Eurozone's ability to withstand external shocks, with government investments in defense and infrastructure anticipated to drive economic growth [2]

Core Insights - Croatia's consumer price index for July shows an inflation rate of 4.1% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of accelerating annual price increases [1] - Croatia's inflation rate is the highest in the Eurozone at 4.5%, compared to the Eurozone average annual inflation rate of 2% for July [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jordan's economy has shown a growth rate of 2.7% in both the last quarter of the previous year and the first quarter of this year, with expectations to maintain this growth rate throughout the year [1] Economic Performance - Inflation rate in Jordan for the first half of the year is recorded at 2% [1] - Tourism revenue has reached $3.7 billion [1] - Foreign exchange reserves stand at $22 billion, sufficient to cover 8.4 months of import needs [1] - Bank deposits in May amounted to 477 billion Jordanian Dinars [1] Economic Vision Progress - The Central Bank of Jordan has completed 90 out of 94 initiatives outlined in the 2023-2025 economic vision, with the remaining initiatives progressing smoothly [1]