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FICC日报:船司继续尝试推涨7月上半月运价,关注最终落地情况-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Ship companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation [1]. - The supply and demand of the US route have both increased, and the freight rates on the US East and West routes have declined from their highs and may have peaked [3]. - The capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June, and there is an expectation of a price increase in August [4][7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [8]. - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and arbitrage opportunities such as going long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and going long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 90,975 lots, and the daily trading volume was 73,550 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1431.50, 1240.40, 1901.80, 2038.00, 1416.10, and 1611.00 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. As of June 15, 2025, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Europe route in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 279,400 TEU [4]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on oil transportation but a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [6]. - Ship delays dragged down the SCFIS on June 16, and it is expected that the SCFIS on June 23 will still be affected [5]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the freight rates on the US East and West routes have declined from their highs and may have peaked [3]. - The 8 - month period is a traditional peak season, and there is an expectation of a price increase, but attention should be paid to the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of the freight rates [7].
FICC日报:马士基6月最后一周试舱价格开出,关注本周是否有7月份涨-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping industry is experiencing price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances. In June, the US - bound freight rates soared due to supply - demand mismatch, but the US - West rates may have peaked. The European - bound freight rates in June also showed an upward trend, with an expected price increase in July and August. The 06 contract of the container shipping index is supported by the expected delivery settlement price, and there is still a price increase expectation for the European - bound freight in August [3][5]. - The container shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal patterns. Geopolitical tensions may impact shipping routes, and the supply - demand relationship is adjusted by carriers' capacity deployment. The traditional peak season in August may lead to price increases [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes for routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam, GDNASK, etc. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 25 - week price is 1700/2840, and HPL's 7 - month first - half shipping schedule quote is 2635/4435 [1]. - **Price Increases**: Some shipping companies announced price increases in the second half of June. MSC's second - half - of - June price increase letter shows a price of 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first half of June [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Impact - **Geopolitical Factor**: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels, which may lead to potential maritime and air blockades [3]. - **Supply - Demand Mismatch in US Routes**: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific east - bound routes. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, the demand on Sino - US routes increased rapidly, causing a sharp rise in freight rates. Currently, carriers are restoring capacity, and the capacity on Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, the US - West freight rates may have peaked [3]. 3.3 European Route Capacity - The capacity pressure on European routes decreased in June. The average weekly capacity of Shanghai - European routes in the remaining three weeks of June is about 280,600 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July is 279,600 TEU. There are also some blank sailings in June and July [4]. 3.4 Contract and Price Expectations - The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase letter. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is about 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is the traditional peak season, and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August at the beginning of June and July. The 2025 European - bound freight rate peak time is unclear, and the 8 - month contract has a fierce game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [5][6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU, and 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [7]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7].
6月下半月价格坚挺,关注船司7月份涨价函情况
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 03:03
6月下半月价格坚挺,关注船司7月份涨价函情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基上海-鹿特丹25周开出为1680/2800;HPL 6月份上半月船期报价1635/2535,6月下半月 船期报价2235/3535,7月上半月船期报价2635/4435。 MSC+Premier Alliance:MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月上半月船期报价1580/2640;ONE上海-鹿特丹 6月份上半月船期报 价2381/2437,6月下半月船期报价2831/2937;HMM上海-鹿特丹6月上半月船期报价1467/2504,6月下半月上海-鹿 特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance:COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月上半月船期报价2125/3225,6月下半月船期报价2625/4225;CMA上海- 鹿特丹 6月上半月船期报价1635/2845,6月下半月船期报价1835/3245,CMA上海-安特卫普7月份报价挂出 2385/4345;EMC 6月上半月船期报价2305/3260,6月下半月船期报价2555/3610;OOCL 6月下半月报价2200/3800. 部分船司宣布6月 ...
FICC日报:马士基6月第一周运价低于预期,6月下半月仍存涨价预期-20250522
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 03:21
FICC日报 | 2025-05-22 马士基6月第一周运价低于预期,6月下半月仍存涨价预期 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基上海-鹿特丹22周船期报价1010/1709,上海-伦敦门户港23周报价开出1200/2000,目 前已经涨至1272/2124;HPL 6月份船期报价1875/3150。 MSC+Premier Alliance:MSC 5月下半月船期报价1130/1890,6月上半月船期报价1580/2640;ONE 5月船期报价 1661/1637,6月上半月船期报价3101/3237;HMM 5月船期报价1067/1704,6月份上半月船期报价1917/3404。 Ocean Alliance:COSCO 6月船上半月期报价2125/3225;CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995,6月份上半月船期报价 1835/3245;EMC 5月份船期报价1505/2160,6月份上半月船期2305/3260;OOCL 6月船上半月期报价1900/3200。 主要船司宣涨6月份价格,MSC 6月份涨价函价格1920/3200,CMA6月份涨价函价格1750/310 ...
FICC日报:MSC以及HPL涨价函发出,关注高运力下6月份涨价函实际落地情况-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - HPL and MSC have issued price increase notices for June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, attention should be paid to the actual price implementation in June. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [1][3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US route. Some ship capacity has overflowed to the European route, but the supply - demand mismatch opportunity in the US route in the short - term may ease the pressure on the European route. The price of the US route has risen significantly, which is beneficial to the European route [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for May and June. For example, Gemini Cooperation's 22 - week shipping schedule (last week of May) is quoted at 932/1571; HPL's May shipping schedule is quoted at 1100/1700, and the June shipping schedule is quoted at 1900/3200 [1] - Price increase announcements: MSC and HPL have announced price increases for the Far East - Europe route in June. MSC's price is 1920/3200 (June 1 - 14), and HPL's price is 1900/3200 (after June 1) [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Geopolitical: On May 14 local time, the Israeli negotiation delegation participated in talks in Doha regarding a cease - fire, the release of detainees, and the end of the Gaza conflict. Hamas participated indirectly [2] - Policy: On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US adjusted its tariffs on China to 20% (fentanyl) + 10% (new benchmark), and the suspension of tariffs will end in 90 days after April 2. China also made corresponding adjustments [3][4] 3.3 Shipping Capacity Analysis - May capacity: The capacity in May has gradually increased. The weekly capacities in WEEK20/21/22 are 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024 [2] - June capacity: The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - to - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Futures market: As of May 14, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 119,581.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 263,372.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices. For example, the closing price of the EC2602 contract is 1518.30 [5] - Spot market: On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates - Arbitrage: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract; go long on the 08 contract and short on the 06 contract [6]
FICC日报:聚焦周末中美关税谈判情况-20250509
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 07:39
FICC日报 | 2025-05-09 聚焦周末中美关税谈判情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基20周价格990/1669,21周报价895/1500;HPL 5月船期报价1100/1700,6月份船期报价 1800/3000。 MSC+Premier Alliance:MSC 5月上半月船期报价1160/1940,5月下半月船期报价1130/1890;ONE 5月船期报价 1661/1637;HMM 5月船期报价1067/1704。YML 线下5月船期报价1000/1600。 Ocean Alliance:COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625;CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995,6月份船期报价1710/2995; EMC 5月份船期报价1205/1960;OOCL 5月船期报价1125/1650。 地缘端:美国和以色列讨论由美国领导加沙过渡政府。美国特使维特科夫将向联合国安理会通报加沙援助计划。 消息人士:阿联酋正在调解以色列和叙利亚之间的秘密会谈。美国副总统万斯:伊朗可以拥有民用核能。但是伊 朗不能拥有一个能让其得到核武器的项目。也门胡塞官员:停火 ...
华泰期货FICC日报-20250507
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 06:32
FICC日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基20周价格968/1635,21周报价870/1450;HPL 5月船期报价1200/1900,6月份船期报价 1800/3000。 MSC+Premier Alliance,MSC 5月上半月船期报价1160/1940;ONE 5月船期报价1661/1637;HMM 5月上半月船期 报价1067/1734。YML 线下5月22日前船期报价1000/1600。 Ocean Alliance,COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625;CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995,6月份船期报价1710/2995; EMC 5月份船期报价1255/2060;OOCL 5月船期报价1150/1700。 地缘端:在遭到以色列的大规模空袭后,也门胡塞武装"最高政治委员会"主席迈赫迪·穆沙特当地时间6日晚间表示, 无论付出什么样的代价,都不会放弃对加沙地带的支持。胡塞武装还表示,反击将会是毁灭性的、痛苦的,并将 超出美国和以色列的承受范围,任何侵略行为都不能阻止其对巴勒斯坦的支持。 5月份运力逐步上修,5月份 ...
马士基WEEK20周价格继续下调,近月合约承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 05:03
Gemini Cooperation:马士基第18周报价1157/1951,19周报价973/1618,马士基20周价格885/1480;HPL 5月上半月船 期报价1200/1900,5月下半月船期报价1300/2100。 MSC+Premier Alliance,MSC5月上半月船期报价1260/2110;ONE 5月上半月船期报价1661/1637,5月下半月船期 报价1661/1637;HMM 5月上半月船期报价1067/1734。 Ocean Alliance,COSCO 5月上半月船期报价2175/3625;CMA 5月份上半月船期报价1285/2145,5月下半月船期报 价2335/4245;EMC 5月份上半月船期报价1255/2060;OOCL 5月上半月船期报价1200/1800。 5月份报价频频下调,近期主要船司纷纷修正5月份运价,马士基WEEK20运价降至1450美元/FEU,ONE 5月1日-5 月15日线下FAK价格下修至936/1602,MSC 5月上半月线下报价下修至1160/1940,COSCO5月上半月线下报价下修 至1350/1850。1450美元/FEU报价折合盘面10 ...
特朗普关税大棒扰动预期,关注马士基WEEK17周报价-2025-04-08
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 05:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policy has an impact on market expectations, and investors are advised to focus on Maersk's WEEK17 weekly quotes [1] - The geopolitical situation shows that the US and Iran may conduct direct negotiations, which adds uncertainty to the market [2] - In April, the shipping capacity is relatively abundant, while in May, it is currently relatively scarce. Investors need to pay attention to the possible release of more blank sailings in May [2] - Major shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of April, and CMA has officially announced the May quotation from Tianjin Xingang to Rotterdam, indicating that shipping companies are trying to create a price - increasing atmosphere during the off - peak to peak season transition [3] - With the approach of the peak season, shipping companies are expected to issue price - increase letters every month before July, which may lead to a strong short - term trend of the 06 and 08 forward contracts. However, the height of the peak - season prices should be expected to be lower [4] - In May, the price - holding effect is expected to be better than that in March and April. The 06 and 08 contracts are relatively safe for short - term long positions, but investors need to pay attention to the upward height. Due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the predicted pressure on US container imports in the second half of the year, if US - bound ships are redeployed to European routes, it will have a negative impact on European route freight rates. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations, such as going long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [5] - The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of April 8, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 81,272.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 120,506.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2504, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1441.50, 1517.70, 1885.00, 1980.10, 1388.80, and 1609.80 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On April 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1336.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2313.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3306.00 US dollars/FEU. On April 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1422.42 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1129.45 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of March 31, 2025, 23 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 345,000 TEU, and 2 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 47,000 TEU [6] 3.4 Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may affect the shipping market. The shipping capacity in April is relatively high, and in May, it is relatively low. There are currently blank sailings in WEEK15, 18, 19, 20, and 21, and attention should be paid to whether more blank sailings will be released in May [2] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided other than the potential impact of the above - mentioned factors on the shipping market.