6 October 2025 | 8:33PM EDT Commodities Research Precious Comment: Raising Our Gold Price Forecast on Sticky Inflows Lina Thomas +1(212)902-8376 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bc ...

高盛认为，其升级后的黄金价格预测的风险净值仍偏向上行，因为私人部门多元化转向相对较小的黄金 市场，可能将ETF持仓推升至高于其利率隐含估计的水平。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将2026年12月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4,900美元(先前为4,300 美元)，因为自8月26日以来推动其17%涨幅的资金流入。高盛指，西方ETF流入以及可能的央行购买， 在高盛的定价框架中是持续性的，有效抬高了该行价格预测的起点。相比之下，较为波动的投机性持仓 大致保持稳定。 高盛表示，尽管起点较高，其预测到2026年底的23%价格上涨幅度大致不变；仍预期央行购买量在2025 至2026年平均为80吨或70吨，因为新兴市场央行很可能继续将其储备进行结构性多元化转向黄金；随着 联储局在2026年中，将联邦基金利率下调100个基点，西方ETF持仓将上升(到2026年12月贡献5个百分 点)；投机性持仓将逐步正常化(到2026年12月贡献负1个百分点)。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its prediction that gold prices will reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong demand from core buyers, particularly central banks and gold ETFs [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices have increased nearly 48% since 2025 and are expected to record double-digit growth for the third consecutive year [2][5]. - The forecast is supported by two main factors: robust structural demand from central banks and the accommodative policies of the Federal Reserve, which will boost gold ETF demand [5]. Group 2: Buyer Categories - Gold buyers are categorized into two groups: "steadfast buyers" and "speculative buyers." Steadfast buyers, including central banks and gold ETFs, tend to buy regardless of price fluctuations, while speculative buyers, such as household investors in emerging markets, enter the market based on perceived price attractiveness [5][6]. - A rule of thumb indicates that for every 100 tons of gold net bought by steadfast buyers, gold prices increase by approximately 1.7% [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks' gold purchases have slowed in July but are expected to accelerate from September, aligning with seasonal trends [6]. - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have increased their gold buying pace by about five times, indicating a structural shift in foreign reserve management [6][7]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Banks - Emerging market central banks have a significantly lower gold allocation compared to developed market central banks, with estimates suggesting that China's gold holdings account for less than 10% of its foreign reserves, while developed economies have around 70% [7]. - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that approximately 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to raise their gold reserves, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2018 [7]. Group 5: Speculative Positions - Large investors, including hedge funds, show a bullish sentiment towards gold in the derivatives market, with net long positions at the highest level since 2014 [8]. - The increase in speculative long positions may pose a risk of short-term price corrections, as historically, speculative holdings tend to revert to the mean [11].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline of 363 points or 1.35%, closing at 26,544 points after reaching a four-year high earlier in the week [2][3] - The market saw increased trading volume, with total turnover rising to over 410 billion HKD, a 14.7% increase from the previous day [3] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking the first cut since December of the previous year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% [6] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also reduced the base rate to 4.5%, which is expected to have a positive impact on the economy and the property market [7] Company News - HSBC announced a reduction in its Hong Kong dollar prime rate by 0.125%, from 5.25% to 5.125%, reflecting the recent U.S. rate cut [10] - Deutsche Bank predicts that gold prices will average $4,000 per ounce next year, driven by demand from central banks and the recent U.S. interest rate cuts [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious investment approach, focusing on high-quality, dividend-stable stocks in mature markets and Asian markets, while reducing exposure to cash and money market instruments [12] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to support the performance of the Hong Kong economy, although local rates may experience increased volatility due to seasonal factors [11]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2029 from $2850/oz to $3300/oz, maintaining a positive outlook on gold prices with potential risks pushing prices to $4500-$5000/oz [1] - The revision by Goldman Sachs comes after a sustained increase in gold prices and gold stocks, with Newmont rated as neutral but showing positive prospects in production, free cash flow, and capital management [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that margin expansion is a key driver for the strong performance of mining stocks, expecting the current gold stock cycle to continue, outperforming commodities throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - UBS has also raised its gold price forecasts, increasing the 2025 year-end prediction by $300 to $3800/oz and the mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3900/oz, citing expected Fed easing policies and geopolitical risks affecting the dollar [4] - UBS revised its estimate for gold ETF holdings, predicting they will exceed 3900 tons by the end of 2025, close to the record of 3915 tons set in October 2020, maintaining a bullish view on gold [4] - UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong at around 900-950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record levels, while highlighting the key risk of unexpected Fed rate hikes due to inflation [4]

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3,600 per ounce to $3,800 per ounce, expecting gold to reach nearly $4,000 per ounce by June 2026 [1] Summary by Category - **Gold Price Forecast** - The gold price target for the end of 2025 is now set at $3,800 per ounce, an increase from the previous target of $3,600 per ounce [1] - ANZ Bank anticipates that gold will peak at nearly $4,000 per ounce by June 2026 [1] - **Silver Price Forecast** - The silver price target for the end of 2025 has been raised to $44.7 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of U.S. Treasury holdings to gold could drive prices to nearly $5,000 per ounce [1][5] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a baseline prediction of $4,000 by mid-2026, a tail risk scenario of $4,500, and an extreme case where just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold, pushing prices close to $5,000 [1][5][6] - Gold is characterized as a "store of value that does not rely on institutional trust," making it particularly appealing in the context of concerns over central bank independence [5][6] Group 2 - Recent actions by Trump to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove board member Lisa Cook, have raised concerns about the central bank's independence [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could pose "serious dangers" to the global economy [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish stance on gold, viewing it as the "highest conviction buy" in the commodities sector, with significant price increases expected even under baseline conditions [5][6]

Summary of Gold Market Primer Industry Overview - The document provides an overview of the global gold market, emphasizing its unique characteristics compared to other commodities. Gold is primarily accumulated rather than consumed, with nearly all mined gold still in existence, making traditional supply-demand models inadequate for forecasting gold prices [1][12][29]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is not consumed but stored, with new annual production adding just over 1% to the existing stock, which is stable and price inelastic [1][12][16]. - The gold price reflects the willingness of buyers to hold gold versus those willing to sell it, categorized into two groups: conviction buyers (ETFs, central banks, speculators) and opportunistic buyers (households in emerging markets) [1][32]. - Conviction flows account for 70% of monthly gold price movements, with 100 tonnes of net purchases by conviction holders corresponding to a 1.7% rise in gold price [1][34][39]. Market Structure - The gold market is dominated by two trading hubs: London (physical market) and New York (speculative paper market) [2][4]. - London serves as the core for large transactions, while New York operates through COMEX futures, which are rarely delivered physically [3][4]. - Switzerland acts as a global refining hub, facilitating the flow of gold between London and New York [6][72]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, particularly China and India, are significant retail gold markets. China controls gold inflows through a quota system, while India uses high import duties to manage demand [8][100]. - The UAE is emerging as a trading hub, often trading gold at a discount to London prices due to less stringent provenance standards [9]. Central Bank and ETF Demand - Central banks have shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold, particularly after geopolitical tensions and financial crises, with a notable fivefold increase in purchases following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 [62][68]. - ETF demand is sensitive to US policy rates, with a 25 basis point cut resulting in approximately 60 tonnes of ETF demand over six months [53][58]. Speculative Positioning - Speculative positioning in gold is characterized as "fast money," which reacts quickly to market events and tends to mean-revert, creating short-term volatility [78][80]. - The relationship between gold prices and institutional credibility is highlighted, with gold serving as a hedge during periods of lost confidence in monetary systems [81][82]. Local Market Dynamics - Local market dynamics in China and India create price disconnects from the global benchmark, with premiums or discounts emerging based on local supply-demand conditions [88][100]. - India's Sovereign Gold Bond program aims to reduce physical gold imports and stabilize the currency, but uptake has been limited outside urban areas [107][108]. Other Important Insights - The document emphasizes that high prices do not necessarily cure high prices in the gold market, as the available supply is largely unaffected by price changes [46]. - The analysis of historical events, such as the 1970s inflation crisis, illustrates how gold prices can surge when institutional credibility erodes [47][81]. - The framework for understanding gold price movements is formalized, focusing on the balance between conviction and opportunistic demand [110][111]. This comprehensive overview of the gold market highlights its unique characteristics, the dynamics of demand and supply, and the influence of macroeconomic factors on pricing.

Group 1 - The core sentiment among Wall Street analysts is optimistic regarding gold prices, with all 17 analysts participating in a survey expressing bullish views after gold prices broke through the key short-term resistance level of $3,350 per ounce following weak non-farm data [1] - There has been a reduction in speculative positions in gold and silver, with a decrease of 28,021 contracts in gold net long positions, bringing the total to 142,846 contracts, and a decrease of 1,631 contracts in silver net long positions, totaling 43,633 contracts [2] - The closing prices for gold and silver in the domestic market showed an increase, with gold rising by 1.36% to 781.42 yuan per gram and silver increasing by 1.3% to 9,039 yuan per kilogram [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its gold price forecast for the next 0-3 months to $3,500 per ounce, up from the previous forecast of $3,300 per ounce [1] - The future price expectation range for gold has also been adjusted to $3,300-$3,600 per ounce, compared to the earlier range of $3,100-$3,500 per ounce [1]