（文章来源：新华财经） CPM Group的分析师Jeffrey Christian在一份报告中称，从美国关税和移民政策、政府支出和全球不稳定 相关的经济风险来看，黄金和白银的投资需求都将获得支撑。 ...

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.01% to $3416 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 2.41% [1] - COMEX silver futures increased by 1.07% to $37.11 per ounce, but saw a weekly decline of 3.28% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was significantly below expectations, contributing to heightened market risk aversion alongside trade protection measures and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies [3] - China's gold consumption in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 505.21 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with gold jewelry consumption down by 26% to 199.83 tons, while gold bars and coins increased by 23.69% to 264.24 tons [3] - In Q2, China's gold consumption was 214.71 tons, a slight decrease of 0.06%, with gold jewelry at 65.30 tons, down 24.16%, and gold bars and coins at 126.22 tons, up 17.62% [3] - High gold prices are suppressing demand for gold jewelry, but products with strong design and high added value continue to be favored, leading to better profitability for merchants [3] Group 3 - The World Gold Council's report on global gold demand trends for Q2 2025 indicated that total global gold demand reached 1249 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, driven primarily by strong investment demand [3] - Although global gold jewelry demand decreased in volume, the value of global gold jewelry consumption still increased [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a clear divide regarding the future trajectory of gold prices, which are currently at historical highs around $3,300 per ounce, with expectations of a potential decline due to improved global economic outlook and reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][4][10]. Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, spot gold prices have slightly increased to $3,347.4 per ounce, while COMEX gold prices are around $3,350 per ounce [1][4]. - Since reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, gold prices have stabilized around $3,300 per ounce [4][11]. ETF Flows - In May 2025, global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion, marking the first monthly outflow since November 2024 [4][9]. - North America faced the most significant impact, with ETF outflows of about $1.5 billion, while Asia saw outflows of approximately $489 million, primarily due to reduced demand in China [6][7]. Regional Analysis - Europe recorded a modest inflow of about $225 million, driven by the French market, which offset outflows from Germany and the UK [7]. - The "other regions" category experienced a small outflow of about $27 million, ending a five-month inflow streak, mainly from Australia and South Africa [8]. Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices may decline to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, citing reduced investment demand and improved economic conditions [10][11]. - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, maintain a more optimistic outlook, predicting prices could reach $6,000 and $3,700 per ounce, respectively, by the end of 2025 [12]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent outflows, the World Gold Council notes that global gold ETFs have seen a net inflow of about $30 billion since the beginning of 2025, with total holdings increasing by 322 tons [9][13].

Core Viewpoint - The supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in the third quarter of 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [1] Group 1 - The anticipated peak of the gold market supply gap is projected for Q3 2025 [1] - After reaching its peak, the supply gap is expected to diminish as investment demand declines [1]

Group 1: Spot Gold Fundamentals - The announcement of a significant tariff adjustment agreement between China and the U.S. on May 12, 2025, led to a sharp decline in the spot gold market, with prices dropping nearly $80 to a weekly low of $3245.85 per ounce [2] - Following the agreement, COMEX gold futures fell below the $3200 mark, reaching a one-month low of $3180.70 per ounce, indicating a market reaction to reduced trade risks [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, which diminished gold's safe-haven appeal, as investors shifted their risk appetite towards equities and other risk assets [2] Group 2: Physical Gold vs. Financial Market - There is a noticeable divergence between physical gold and financial markets, with brands like Chow Tai Fook showing less price volatility compared to the financial market, reflecting stable consumer purchasing decisions [3] - In Q1 2025, global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% to 380 tons, while investment demand surged by 170%, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching 124 tons, marking the second-highest quarterly level in history [3] Group 3: Spot Gold Technical Analysis - The spot gold market in Asia continued to decline, breaking the key support level of $3201.00, with current market quotes around $3185.00 per ounce [4] - Technical analysis suggests a high probability of further price declines, with a trading strategy recommending short positions if prices rebound to the resistance level of $3215.40, with stop-loss set at $3245.40 and take-profit at $3170.00 [4] Group 4: Spot Silver Technical Analysis - The spot silver market also followed expectations, breaking below the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $32.510, reaching the target of $32.110, with current quotes around $32.200 per ounce [6] - Technical indicators suggest a continued likelihood of price declines, with a recommendation to short if prices rebound to the resistance level of $32.510, setting stop-loss at $32.950 and take-profit at $31.950 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, marking a 1% year-on-year increase and the highest level for a first quarter since 2016 [1] - Global gold investment demand surged to 551.9 tons, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 170% [1] - The demand for gold bars and coins was 325.4 tons, up 3% year-on-year, exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 15% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow into global gold ETFs was 226.5 tons, a substantial increase from 18.7 tons in the previous quarter, making it the primary driver of investment demand in Q1 [1] - In April alone, gold ETF inflows in Asia surpassed the total for the entire first quarter, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Despite the growth in ETF holdings, they remain 10% below the peak levels seen in 2020 [1] Group 3 - Global gold jewelry consumption fell by 21% year-on-year to 380.3 tons, the lowest level since 2020, despite a 9% increase in spending on gold jewelry [1] - Demand for technology gold remained stable at 80 tons compared to the same quarter last year [1] Group 4 - Central banks globally continued to increase their gold reserves, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of net gold purchases [2] - Although this demand was down 21% year-on-year, it remained consistent with the average levels of the past three years [2] Group 5 - Total gold supply in Q1 was 1206 tons, with gold mine production at 855.7 tons, remaining flat year-on-year, and recycled gold totaling 345.3 tons, down 1% [2]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, driven by record gold prices surpassing $3000 per ounce [1][2] - Investment demand for gold surged, particularly through ETFs, with a total of 552 tons in Q1, marking a 170% increase year-on-year and the highest quarterly level since Q1 2022 [1][2] - Central banks continued to purchase gold for the 16th consecutive year, adding 244 tons to official reserves, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in this demand [1] Investment Demand - Gold ETF demand rebounded significantly, with inflows totaling 226 tons in Q1, reflecting a strong shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - Retail investment in gold bars and coins in China increased by 3% year-on-year to 325 tons, marking the second-highest quarterly demand for these products [1] Jewelry Demand - Despite high gold prices negatively impacting jewelry demand, the consumption expenditure on gold jewelry grew by 9% year-on-year to $35 billion, with all markets outside of China showing growth [2] Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply remained stable at 1206 tons in Q1, with record gold mine production offset by a slight decline in recycled gold supply [2] Market Outlook - The current market environment remains uncertain, with gold investment demand reaching its highest level for a first quarter since 2016, suggesting potential for further price increases [2]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's Q1 2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1, a 1% year-on-year increase, despite gold prices surpassing $3000 per ounce [1] - Gold ETF demand has rebounded significantly, leading to a more than doubling of gold investment demand to 552 tons, a 170% year-on-year increase, marking the highest quarterly level since Q1 2022 [1] - Retail investment in China has surged, contributing to a 3% year-on-year increase in demand for gold bars and coins, totaling 325 tons, which is the second-highest quarterly demand on record for this category [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant increase in international gold prices, which have returned to around $2900 per ounce, while also noting a recent sharp decline from near $3000 per ounce. The volatility is attributed to various economic and political factors, including U.S. tariff policies and central bank demand for gold [1][10][21]. Price Movements - As of March 4, 2023, the London gold spot price was reported at $2919.15 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.24% [2]. - The COMEX gold futures price was at $2928.60 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 10.96% [2]. - Domestic gold prices in China have also seen fluctuations, with brands like Chow Tai Fook reporting prices above 880 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 7 yuan per gram [3]. Market Reactions - The article notes a significant drop in gold prices, with a decrease of 20 yuan per gram over three days, leading to a decline in consumer purchasing activity [4][6]. - Some gold retailers reported zero sales for several consecutive days, indicating a shift in consumer sentiment due to price volatility [8][9]. Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in gold purchases by central banks, driven by geopolitical tensions and a desire to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [18][21]. - The article suggests that the current gold bull market, which has lasted over two years, is primarily driven by central bank purchases rather than private investment [18][20]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a strong possibility of gold prices breaking the $3000 per ounce mark within the year, supported by ongoing central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainties [22][23]. - The potential for increased investment demand, particularly from private investors, is seen as a key factor that could further drive gold prices upward [21][22].