今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为73.69%增0.24%；焦炭日均产量64.81增0.21，焦炭库存73.62 减6.5，炼焦煤总库存992.73增7.35，焦煤可用天数11.5天增 0.05天。评：供应端，主产区前期部分换工作面及检修等因素 停限产的煤矿恢复生产，虽仍有部分煤矿供给受扰，但整体供 应有所回升。需求端，焦炭产量持稳，但市场观望情绪增加， 成交有所转弱，不过煤矿前期有预售行为，煤矿库存继续去 化。总体来看，国内供给恢复和蒙煤进口增量体现仍需时间， 上游煤矿去库周期仍在持续。情绪退潮后盘面价格回归合理区 间，短期基本面矛盾暂不凸显，预计盘面震荡调整运行。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格54泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格 47.4泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/吨，制浓乳胶价 格14300元/吨；欧洲轮胎和橡胶制造商协会（ETRMA）发布市场 数据显示，2025年二季度欧洲替换胎市场销量同比下降3.5%至 5704.4万条。评：橡胶的整体供求全年预计偏紧。但短期内供 应可能在上量，原料的价格回落便是证明。需求也没有充分给 力。轮胎企业检修， ...

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market experienced a significant rebound in July, with a total of 149 new funds established, marking the highest number for the year, and a total issuance of 882.61 billion units, reflecting a 12.83% increase from June [2][3] Fund Issuance Overview - In July, bond funds led the market with 506.20 billion units issued, accounting for 57.35% of total issuance, while stock funds had 81 new funds with an issuance of 250.88 billion units, representing 28.43% of the total [2][3] - The average issuance per fund in July was 9.59 billion units, an increase of 2.54 billion units compared to June [2] Factors Driving Market Recovery - The recovery in the public fund issuance market is attributed to improved market conditions, favorable macroeconomic data, supportive regulatory policies, and ample liquidity [3] - The launch of innovative products like the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has significantly contributed to the growth in bond fund issuance, with these ETFs accounting for 75% of the total bond fund issuance in July [3][4] Performance of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs - The first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs reached a total scale of 1,082.14 billion yuan by the end of July, representing a growth of over 270% since their launch [4][5] - These ETFs accounted for nearly 21% of the total bond ETF market, which reached a historical high of 5,160.29 billion yuan with 39 ETFs in total [4] Market Dynamics and Ecosystem - The dual fund manager model adopted by some fund managers, such as Penghua Fund, enhances the management of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs by combining expertise in credit bonds and ETF management [6] - The optimization of market-making models has improved liquidity in the bond market, particularly for bond ETFs, creating a positive feedback loop between ETF liquidity and the underlying bond market [7] Private Fund Participation - Private funds are increasingly participating in the ETF market, with a focus on diversifying their asset allocation strategies through products like the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs [8] - The rapid growth of these ETFs has redefined the concept of "explosive growth" in the fund market, indicating a shift in how equity and bond markets can complement each other [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the bond market, with credit bonds experiencing a larger decline compared to interest rate bonds, particularly in the period from July 18 to July 25, where 3Y and above interest rate bonds rose by 7-9 basis points, while credit bonds fell by 8-12 basis points [1][8][11] - The primary reasons for the market decline include a rebound in equity and commodity prices, a tightening of the funding environment, and increased redemption pressure [1][11][21] - Following the market adjustment, the report suggests that the credit market may enter a slow recovery phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect being a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend [2][21][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a seasonal characteristic in credit bond net financing, with supply expected to rise from June to August, followed by a decline in September as corporate financing needs weaken [3][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the credit bond ETF market have led to a slowdown in growth, with some ETFs experiencing a slight contraction in scale [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the current credit market is relatively weak, with significant volatility and limited space for narrowing credit spreads, particularly in the short to medium term [3][27]

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction [2]. - Silver is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation due to the weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The 09 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. - Crude oil should be treated with a volatile and bullish view [5]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. - The rebar futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. - Iron ore is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [7]. - Gold remains volatile and bearish [8]. - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the logic of the bond market itself is unclear [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. - Palm oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. - Short - term pig prices have adjusted, and short - term long positions can be considered; farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. - It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. - Rubber is relatively weak in the short term, and it is recommended to realize profits on short positions on dips [13]. - The L09 contract of LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen Anze increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1500 yuan/ton. The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons week - on - week to 248.3 tons. After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the fifth round started. The market speculation sentiment cooled, and coking coal hit the daily limit down. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction, with a support level of 980 yuan/ton [2]. Silver - The core PCE price index in the US in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. The actual consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation. The short - term interest rate cut expectations weakened, which is bearish for silver. It is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation [2]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1366 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The weekly output decreased by 3.32% week - on - week to 69.98 tons, and the total inventory of manufacturers decreased by 3.69% week - on - week to 179.58 tons. The float glass start - up rate is 75%, down 0.1% week - on - week. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 1285 for the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. Crude Oil - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on a large number of individuals, entities, and vessels related to a shipping network. Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the oil market situation. The US crude oil production in May increased by 24,000 barrels per day, breaking the previous record. The market is concerned about the possible significant production increase by OPEC+ in September, and the international oil price corrected. The overall situation is volatile and bullish [5]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 8.26 tons week - on - week to 80.84 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.53 tons week - on - week to 32.45 tons. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 2425. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Rebar - As of July 31, the weekly output decreased by 0.42% to 211.06 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.12% to 162.15 tons, the social inventory increased by 2.99% to 384.14 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% to 203.41 tons. Affected by bad weather, the terminal demand is low, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - From July 21 to July 27, the global iron ore shipment volume increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 203.9 tons week - on - week to 2755.9 tons. Affected by the policy expectations and market sentiment, the current fundamentals are neutral to strong, and it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [7]. Gold - The US will resume collecting "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1. The tariff negotiations are ongoing, but the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak. Gold remains volatile and bearish, and attention should be paid to the US dollar trend [8]. Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The economic sentiment declined, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be increased. The stock market's short - term upward momentum weakened, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is favorable for the bond market. The bond market's own logic is unclear [8]. Short - Term Treasury Bonds - On July 31, most money market interest rates rose. The increase in money market interest rates is bearish for short - term bonds. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw effect is the main logic of the bond market [9]. Rapeseed Meal - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.78% week - on - week to 5.51 tons. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are relatively low, but the demand is weak, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. It is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. Palm Oil - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. Pig - On July 31, the national average pork price decreased by 1.1% to 20.45 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the slaughter of farmers decreased, and the price - support intention increased. The short - term price adjustment is in place, and short - term long positions can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. PTA - The polyester market inventory is concentrated in 16 - 26 days. The PTA supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream polyester load may continue to decline with limited space. The PX spot tension has eased, and the PX futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. Rubber - The Thai raw material prices continued to fall. The Hainan raw material output increased seasonally. The annual natural rubber supply and demand are expected to be tight, but the short - term supply may increase, and the demand is not strong. The short - term situation is relatively weak [13]. LLDPE - The mainstream price in North China decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 7363 yuan/ton. The weekly output decreased by 1.08% week - on - week to 27.25 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 17.44% week - on - week to 14.25 tons. The L09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 7385. It is recommended to wait and see [14].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in value and trading activity, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing macroeconomic policy adjustments by the government [3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 31, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.45%, with a latest price of 111.18 yuan, and has accumulated a 9.42% increase over the past year [3]. - The ETF has a trading volume of 26.49 billion yuan, indicating active market participation, with an average daily trading volume of 43.08 billion yuan over the past week [3]. Policy Insights - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on effective implementation and maximizing policy effects [3]. - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while maintaining a neutral stance on interest rate cuts [4]. Fund Metrics - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has reached a new high in size at 14.988 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 1.35 million [4]. - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan, totaling 6.061 billion yuan in average daily net inflows [4]. Historical Performance - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved a net value increase of 9.47%, ranking 7th out of 414 index bond funds, placing it in the top 1.69% [5]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and saw an expanded decline, while the ChiNext Index reversed its early 1% gain, indicating a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Huachuang Securities believes that there are no signs of a trend reversal in the economic fundamentals, and the central bank's stance remains supportive, suggesting no trend adjustment risk in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The Credit Bond ETF (511200) includes large-scale, AAA-rated bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with 245 underlying bonds covering a maturity range of 0-30 years, reflecting a comprehensive yield curve [2] - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF (551550) selects AAA-rated and above bonds from technology innovation companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, indicating a strong quality of underlying assets, with state-owned enterprises accounting for about 99% of the issuance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the ten-year government bond ETFs (511260) and government bond ETFs (511010) experienced a certain degree of increase on July 30, signaling a slowdown in the recent downward trend [1] - The bond market is currently under pressure from market factors, with a "stock-bond seesaw" effect where stock performance is strong while the bond market is under pressure, although the macroeconomic reality still favors the bond market [3] - The nominal economic pressure primarily lies in prices, with PPI showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% in the first half of the year, which is lower than the expected full-year central tendency of -2.2% for 2024 [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic state is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, suggesting that there may be significant allocation opportunities in the bond market compared to the stock market [5] - The ten-year government bond ETFs (511260) and government bond ETFs (511010) are recommended for continued investor attention due to the mismatch between strong expectations and weak realities [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.62% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears weak in the short term, with over 3500 stocks declining [1] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and plan for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policies [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [1] Bond Market Performance - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) and government bond ETF (511010) showed some degree of increase, indicating a stabilization after several days of decline [2] - The bond market is currently under pressure due to stock market performance, but macroeconomic realities still favor the bond market [3] Industrial Insights - The chemical sector has been under pressure due to weak downstream demand and continuous price declines, with major chemical products experiencing negative year-on-year price changes [7] - The recent fire at Covestro's plant in Germany has disrupted TDI production, which may impact the chemical supply chain [9] Profitability Trends - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 1.1% year-on-year in the first five months, marking the fourth consecutive year of negative growth [5] - There is a notable divergence in profitability across sectors, with equipment, non-ferrous metals, and essential consumer goods showing stronger profit growth compared to sectors like real estate and automotive [5]

Group 1 - The equity market has recently reached new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, leading to disturbances in the bond market due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen sharply to 1.73% as of July 25, marking a year-to-date high, driven by rising inflation expectations and changes in the funding environment [1] - Citic Securities attributes the recent bond market pullback to increased inflation expectations, high previous market congestion, and marginal changes in the funding environment [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities predicts that the bond market may have already passed its most challenging phase, with expectations of improved funding conditions supported by the central bank's actions [1] - The central bank's proactive measures, including a net injection of 100 billion yuan through MLF and a significant reverse repo operation, indicate a commitment to stabilizing the funding environment [1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the central bank's continued support, particularly for mid-to-short-term and credit bonds [1] Group 3 - Huian Fund's research team notes that after significant redemptions, the central bank's large net injection has stabilized market sentiment, leading to cautious short-term expectations for interest rates [2] - Investors are advised to consider short-duration bond funds, which are less affected by interest rate fluctuations, as a preferred option for managing liquidity needs [2] - Specific funds, such as Huian Yongli 30-day holding period short bond fund and Huian Yongfu 90-day holding period medium-short bond fund, have consistently achieved positive returns since their inception [2] Group 4 - For investors looking to participate in equity markets while managing risk, the Huian Quality Selected Bond Fund, which focuses on high-quality central enterprise credit bonds and dividend-quality stocks, is recommended [3] - This fund has a unique performance benchmark designed to balance returns from quality credit bonds and stocks, aiming for stable growth [3] - The fund is currently available for subscription across major channels, appealing to investors seeking steady progress [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and a general decline in net asset values [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [2]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, prompting adjustments in net asset value precision, compared to 19 and 14 funds in June and May, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to a recovery in risk appetite, with preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products contributing to market disturbances [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China's large liquidity injections have alleviated market tension, leading to a slight decline in the yield of the 10-year government bond, indicating a potential turning point in redemption trends [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with potential short-term recovery opportunities [4]. - Factors such as the end of the "anti-involution" trend and the recent monetary policy adjustments may provide a basis for a rebound in the bond market [4][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market sentiment and performance [4].