回头看，为何会出现股债"跷跷板"？ 从历史数据来看，股债之间的关系常常像"跷跷板"一样，呈现出涨跌反向关系。 春节以来，股债两市走势分化，"股债跷跷板"效应再度成为投资者热议的话题。 股市迎来"小阳春"：在DeepSeek的带动下，A股市场发起"春季攻势"，从AI板块占主导到科技领域百花 齐放，市场风险偏好明显提高； 债市持续震荡：债市却在去年大牛市后进入盘整期，受资金面边际收紧、风险偏好抬升以及央行降息预 期回摆等因素影响，10年国债收益率从最低点最多上行约30bp。（时间范围：2025/1/1-2025/3/24） 数据来源：Wind，中泰 证券研究所，统计区间2002/01/01-2024/10/28，历史业绩不代表未来表现 这种负相关关系主要是由以下几个因素造成： 风险偏好变化： 当投资者对风险感到担忧时，可能会将资金从风险较高的股票市场转向相对稳定的债券市场，导致股票 价格下跌而债券价格上涨。相反，当投资者对风险持乐观态度时，可能更愿意投资于股票市场，这可能 导致股票价格上涨而债券价格下跌。 经济周期和市场预期： 在经济衰退或市场预期不佳的情况下，企业盈利和股票市场或面临压力，可能导致股票价格下跌而 ...

Core Insights - Since February 20, global market volatility has increased, with significant declines in US stocks, while A-shares have shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.2% during the same period [1] Fund Flow Perspective - The recent strength in A-shares and increased trading volume is attributed to accelerated inflows of external capital. Domestic capital is shifting from bonds to stocks, with macro liquidity becoming more accommodative since March [2] - As of March 14, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.84%, up 14 basis points from the beginning of the month, indicating a rebalancing of funds from bonds to stocks [2] - Retail investor sentiment has strengthened significantly, with an average weekly net inflow of 161.2 billion yuan over the past five weeks, an increase of 95.7 billion yuan compared to early January [2] - Leverage funds have also seen accelerated inflows, with a cumulative scale approaching 150 billion yuan since early February, particularly benefiting the electronics and computer sectors [2] - Both public and private equity funds have reached historical high positions, with subjective long strategy private equity averaging 79% in positions by the end of February, and public mixed equity funds reaching 83.9% as of March 14 [2] Foreign Capital Outlook - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about A-shares, with institutions like Citigroup and HSBC downgrading US stock ratings while expressing confidence in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and the tech sector [3] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect has increased, with net inflows from passive foreign capital reaching a new high since November of the previous year [3] Market Outlook - The potential impact of continued pressure on US stocks on A-shares is a key concern. If US stocks experience a significant decline, it may be challenging for A-shares to remain unaffected [4] - However, the likelihood of a liquidity crisis in A-shares is currently low, and they may even benefit from liquidity spillover from US stock declines [5] - If US stocks experience moderate declines, A-shares are expected to maintain their independent performance, driven primarily by domestic policies and industry trends [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that since February 20, global market volatility has increased, with significant declines in US stocks, while A-shares have shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.2% during the same period [1][2]. - The report indicates that the recent independent performance of A-shares is largely attributed to the accelerated inflow of external funds, with retail investor sentiment improving significantly, as evidenced by a weekly net inflow of 161.2 billion yuan from February 10 to March 14, an increase of 95.7 billion yuan compared to early January [2][3]. - It notes that leverage funds have also been flowing into the market, with a cumulative inflow of nearly 150 billion yuan since early February, particularly benefiting technology sectors such as electronics and computers [2][3]. Group 2 - The report discusses the outlook for A-shares in relation to the performance of US stocks, suggesting that if US stocks continue to face downward pressure, A-shares may benefit from liquidity spillover rather than being negatively impacted [4][5]. - It emphasizes that the current probability of a liquidity crisis in A-shares is low, and the market may actually gain from the decline in US stocks, as external funds are increasingly focused on Chinese assets, particularly in the context of AI and technology sectors [5][7]. - The report concludes that while A-shares are currently in a favorable trading phase driven by domestic policies and industry trends, prolonged declines in US stocks could eventually lead to concerns about external demand weakening and corporate profitability being pressured [7].

今天A股有两波跳水，第一波是上午一路走高后，11点左右跳了一波，幅度相对较小，第二波跳水是下午13点30开始，幅度相对大一点，也使得 日终的时候，上证和沪深300都转跌了。 但更重要的，还是股债跷跷板的现象，我拉了一个图，下面这个， 上半部分是沪深300的走势 ，绿色框框是下午跳水的区间； 而下半部分，是 今天债券的机构买卖力量 ——解释一下， 债券有买也有卖，买卖匹配才能最终成交 ， T代表Taken，如果是Taken成交，意味着是买方主动， 说明债市买盘力量更强；而G代表Given，意味着卖方接受买方的报价成交，说明买盘比较弱，卖方往往要"让利"才能卖得出去；D表示Deal，指 买卖双方通过协商达成中间价成交，数量少，可以忽略。 那么，可以看到， 下午13点30之后，股债跷跷板现象非常明显 ——股市跳水，伴随着债市的买盘，开始加速买入，也就是蓝色的Taken（T）， 斜率大幅向上。 回过头来看，今天A股的表现和股债跷跷板效应，可能交易了三个信息。 第一层，开盘的时候， 交易周末较好的官方制造业PMI的数据 ，上午9点45的时候，财新制造业PMI数据也披露了，也创近三个月新高，这个时 候，股市走高，而债市的 ...