Core Logic Analysis - Global stock market decline is driven by weak U.S. economic data, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, indicating a sharp cooling in the labor market and raising recession concerns [3] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some betting on a 50 basis point cut, as officials support further easing [3] - The U.S. dollar index showed volatility, dropping 0.36% to 97.85 on August 15, reflecting risk aversion, but rebounded slightly in subsequent days, indicating insufficient confidence in the U.S. economy [3] A-shares Independent Uptrend - Domestic policy support includes the central bank's implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, along with the issuance of long-term special bonds to stimulate infrastructure investment and consumption [9] - Economic data shows improvement, with July industrial output increasing by 5.7% and retail sales rising by 3.7%, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [9] - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of 35.876 billion HKD on August 15, marking a historical high for single-day net purchases, reflecting foreign investors' confidence in A-shares [9] Key Analysis Dimensions - Global market interconnectivity suggests that continued weak U.S. economic data or inflation figures could lead to a decline in global risk appetite, prompting foreign capital to withdraw from A-shares [13] - The sustainability of domestic policies is crucial, with attention on whether the August LPR will be lowered, as further cuts could bolster market confidence [13] - Upcoming economic data, including August PMI and subsequent industrial output and consumption figures, will validate the recovery trajectory, influencing the sustainability of A-shares' independent trend [13] Data Verification and Action Recommendations - The first step involves collecting data on U.S. August PMI, China's August LPR, and real-time northbound capital flow by 15:30 [19] - The second step includes correlational analysis by 16:00, assessing the implications of U.S. PMI data and LPR adjustments on A-share positions [21] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining core positions while avoiding high-risk entries if A-share indices approach key resistance levels without volume support [21]

Core Insights - Since February 20, global market volatility has increased, with significant declines in US stocks, while A-shares have shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.2% during the same period [1] Fund Flow Perspective - The recent strength in A-shares and increased trading volume is attributed to accelerated inflows of external capital. Domestic capital is shifting from bonds to stocks, with macro liquidity becoming more accommodative since March [2] - As of March 14, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.84%, up 14 basis points from the beginning of the month, indicating a rebalancing of funds from bonds to stocks [2] - Retail investor sentiment has strengthened significantly, with an average weekly net inflow of 161.2 billion yuan over the past five weeks, an increase of 95.7 billion yuan compared to early January [2] - Leverage funds have also seen accelerated inflows, with a cumulative scale approaching 150 billion yuan since early February, particularly benefiting the electronics and computer sectors [2] - Both public and private equity funds have reached historical high positions, with subjective long strategy private equity averaging 79% in positions by the end of February, and public mixed equity funds reaching 83.9% as of March 14 [2] Foreign Capital Outlook - Foreign capital is increasingly optimistic about A-shares, with institutions like Citigroup and HSBC downgrading US stock ratings while expressing confidence in Chinese assets, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and the tech sector [3] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect has increased, with net inflows from passive foreign capital reaching a new high since November of the previous year [3] Market Outlook - The potential impact of continued pressure on US stocks on A-shares is a key concern. If US stocks experience a significant decline, it may be challenging for A-shares to remain unaffected [4] - However, the likelihood of a liquidity crisis in A-shares is currently low, and they may even benefit from liquidity spillover from US stock declines [5] - If US stocks experience moderate declines, A-shares are expected to maintain their independent performance, driven primarily by domestic policies and industry trends [7]