1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy as they are oscillating weakly [2]. - For the black series, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy after a significant drop following continuous rise [2]. - For precious metals, construct a spot hedging strategy as they are oscillating at a high level and have declined [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2509) is priced at 78,800, down 530 or 0.67% with a trading volume of 8.81 million lots and an open interest of 18.08 million lots [3]. - Aluminum (AL2509) is at 20,615, down 135 or 0.65% with a volume of 14.36 million lots and an open interest of 30.20 million lots [3]. - Multiple other metal futures are also presented with their latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - Copper's volume PCR is 0.64 (change: 0.25), and position PCR is 0.64 (change: - 0.04) [4]. - Aluminum's volume PCR is 0.59 (change: - 0.19), and position PCR is 0.78 (change: - 0.13) [4]. - Similar data for other metal options are provided [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper's pressure point is 82,000 and support point is 75,000 [5]. - Aluminum's pressure point is 21,000 and support point is 20,000 [5]. - Pressure and support levels for other metals are also given [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.15%, weighted implied volatility is 18.78% (change: 0.15) [6]. - Aluminum's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.57%, weighted implied volatility is 14.68% (change: - 0.17) [6]. - Implied volatility data for other metals are presented [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Use a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [8][9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Implement a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Build a short - volatility strategy with a bearish bias and a spot long - hedging strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Adopt a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Use a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Construct a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Build a short - volatility strategy with a neutral bias and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Use a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy with a bullish bias, and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: Implement a bull - spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Adopt a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The overall market shows that oil and fat - related agricultural products are in a strong - biased oscillatory state, oils and agricultural by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodity sugar rebounds and rises in an oscillatory manner, cotton shows a bullish upward trend, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation state. [2][8] - Strategies suggest constructing option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The table presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures contracts. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,208, with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.36%, trading volume of 10.13 million lots, and an increase in open interest of 0.29 million lots. [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of volume and open interest for different option varieties are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.53 with a change of 0.19, and the open interest PCR is 0.46 with a change of - 0.00. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4300 and the support level is 4100, which are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, average annual implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.86%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.59% with a change of 0.97%. [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oil and Oilseed Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: - **Fundamentals**: USDA's July report maintains the soybean production in the 25/26 season at about 118 million tons, with an increase in crushing volume and a decrease in exports, resulting in an increase in inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio. - **Market Analysis**: Soybean No.1 shows an oversold rebound pattern. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 4300 and 4100 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: - **Fundamentals**: The purchase volume of soybean meal in different months is provided. - **Market Analysis**: Soybean meal shows a pattern of decline, consolidation, and then rebound. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is slightly above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3100 and 2900 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to decline, and production is increasing. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil shows a bullish upward trend. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility of palm oil is decreasing to below the historical average, open interest PCR is above 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 10000 and 8000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bull - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [10] - **Peanuts**: - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of peanuts in the Northeast is stable, imports are decreasing, and the inventory is still high. - **Market Analysis**: Peanuts show a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 9000 and 8000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread strategy for directional trading; for spot hedging, hold a long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options. [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Hogs**: - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of hogs is falling, slaughter volume is high, and demand is average. - **Market Analysis**: Hogs show a pattern of small - scale upward movement under bearish pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is rising to above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 18000 and 13600 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, hold a long position + sell out - of - the - money call options. [11] - **Eggs**: - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices are rising and then stabilizing, affected by high - temperature weather. - **Market Analysis**: Eggs show a pattern of weak consolidation with upper pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a high level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 4000 and 3400 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread strategy for directional trading; construct a bear - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies. [12] - **Apples**: - **Fundamentals**: The estimated apple production is increasing, and the inventory in cold storage is decreasing. - **Market Analysis**: Apples show a pattern of weak bearishness gradually rebounding. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is slightly above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 8900 and 7000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies. [12] - **Jujubes**: - **Fundamentals**: The arrival volume and price of jujubes in the market are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Jujubes show a pattern of rebound, rise, and then decline. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is rising to above the historical average, open interest PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 11400 and 9000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - biased strangle option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, hold a long position + sell out - of - the - money call options. [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: - **Fundamentals**: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Sugar shows a pattern of oversold rebound. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is around 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 5900 and 5700 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, build a long collar strategy. [13] - **Cotton**: - **Fundamentals**: The growth conditions of American cotton are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton shows a pattern of rebound and then consolidation. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is decreasing to a low level, open interest PCR is below 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 15000 and 13000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bullish spread strategy for directional trading; construct a bull - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies; for spot hedging, hold a long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options. [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: - **Fundamentals**: The price and inventory conditions of corn in different regions are provided. - **Market Analysis**: Corn shows a pattern of bearish downward movement. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 2320 and 2300 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread strategy for directional trading; construct a bear - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategies. [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides strategies for different metal options, including constructing seller neutral volatility strategies for non - ferrous metals with a fluctuating and strengthening trend, building bullish option bull spread combinations for the rapidly rising black series, and creating spot hedging strategies for precious metals like gold which is in a high - level consolidation and bullish state [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures are presented, such as copper's latest price of 79,290 with a - 0.69% change, and lithium carbonate's price increase of 7.21% to 76,680 [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options are shown, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, copper's volume PCR is 0.38 with a 0.05 change, and open interest PCR is 0.68 with a 0.01 change [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, copper's pressure point is 82,000 and support point is 75,000 [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.96%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 2.81 [6] 5. Strategies and Recommendations for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Strategies include a bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Similar to aluminum, it involves a bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination with a short delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [10] - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - hedging strategy are proposed [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: For gold, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended. For silver, based on its market conditions, corresponding option strategies are also provided [12] Black Series - **Rebar**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - covered call strategy are recommended [13] - **Iron Ore**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [14] - **Ferroalloys**: A bullish option bull spread combination and a short - volatility strategy are recommended for manganese silicon, and corresponding strategies are also provided for industrial silicon and polysilicon [15] - **Glass**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [16] 6. Metal Option Charts - Charts for different metal options are provided, including price trends, option volume and open interest, option volume and open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels, which visually present the market conditions of various metal options [18][38][57]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. The market trends vary among different product categories. For example, oilseeds and oils show a strong and volatile trend, while grains like corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. [2][8] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For instance, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,221, with an increase of 15 and a rise - fall rate of 0.36%, and the trading volume is 124,500 lots with a decrease of 14,600 lots. [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various agricultural product options are different, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.35, and the open - interest PCR is 0.46. [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open - interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4300, and the support level is 4100. [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options has different characteristics, including the average implied volatility at the money, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.36%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.62% with a decrease of 0.67%. [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand balance of US soybeans. The soybean No.1 market showed a rebound after a sharp decline. It is recommended to construct a neutral selling call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging. [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal in different months is different. The market shows a rebound after a weak consolidation. Similar to soybean No.1, a neutral selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The MPOB June report shows the supply - demand situation of palm oil. The palm oil market is in a bullish trend. A bullish selling call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [10] - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is in a weak consolidation under the bearish pressure line. A bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The pig market is in a weak trend after a rebound. A bearish selling option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended. [11] - **Eggs**: The egg market is in a weak downward trend. A bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish selling option combination strategy are recommended. [12] - **Apples**: The apple market shows a weak rebound. A neutral selling option combination strategy is recommended. [12] - **Red Dates**: The red date market shows a rebound and then a decline. A bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows a rebound after a sharp decline. A neutral selling option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended. [13] - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a rebound at a low level. A bullish spread strategy of call options, a bullish selling option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended. [14] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market is in a weak downward trend. A bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish selling option combination strategy are recommended. [14]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a metal options strategy morning report dated July 24, 2025, covering有色金属, precious metals, and black metals [1][2] - The overall strategy suggestions are to construct a seller neutral volatility strategy for non - ferrous metals, a bull call spread strategy for black metals, and a spot hedging strategy for precious metals [2] Group 2: Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts are presented, such as copper (CU2509) at 79,680 with a - 0.16% change, and aluminum (AL2509) at 20,750 with a - 0.46% change [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] Group 6: Option Strategies for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest constructing a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy and a short - option combination strategy, as well as a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Propose a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Suggest a short - option combination strategy with a short delta and a spot long - position hedging strategy [10] - **Tin**: Recommend a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Propose a short - option combination strategy with a long delta and a spot long - position hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Suggest a short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot long - position covered call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Propose a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot long - position collar strategy [14] - **Ferroalloys**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy and a short - volatility strategy [15] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Propose a bull call spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot long - position hedging strategy [15] - **Glass**: Recommend a bull call spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot long - position collar strategy [16] Group 7: Metal Option Charts - Charts for various metal options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts [18][38][57]

农产品期权 2025-07-24 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏强震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖反弹回升震 荡上行，棉花多头上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on energy - chemical options, covering various categories such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkali chemicals. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of different underlying assets and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][8][9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of 17 energy - chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 506, with a price increase of 2 and a growth rate of 0.42% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest Ratio (PCR)**: It shows the volume and open - interest PCR of different option varieties. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.48, with a change of - 0.05, and the open - interest PCR is 0.53, with a change of - 0.02 [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The report identifies the pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640, and the support level is 500 [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: It provides the implied volatility data of different option varieties, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.785%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.57%, with a change of 0.94% [7]. 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil and LPG)**: - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will increase oil supply in August. The market shows a short - term weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: The market is short - term bearish. Strategies involve constructing a bearish short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [9]. - **Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)**: - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak rebound with resistance. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market shows a weak and narrow - range volatile pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [11]. - **Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, Polyvinyl Chloride, etc.)**: - **Polypropylene**: The market is weak with resistance. Strategies include a long - spot collar strategy using a long - spot position, a long - put option, and a short - call option [11]. - **Rubber - related Options**: - **Rubber**: The market shows a low - level consolidation pattern. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [12]. - **Polyester - related Options (P - Xylene, PTA, etc.)**: - **PTA**: The market is weak with resistance. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13]. - **Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, etc.)**: - **Caustic Soda**: The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Strategies include a long - spot collar strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market shows a bullish upward trend. Strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [14]. - **Urea Options**: - The market shows a volatile pattern under bearish pressure. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - spot collar strategy [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market has shifted from a volatile state to a stronger one. The positive domestic policies have led to a rotation and upward movement in the industrial product sector, and the optimistic sentiment is still being digested. For the current rebound of non - ferrous metals, it is regarded as a staged rebound. In operation, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term but avoid over - chasing the rise, and beware of the ebbing of sentiment. Also, continue to pay attention to the resonance between the supply - demand drivers of each variety and the macro - environment, as well as the trend changes of the leading varieties in this round of rise [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend and showed stronger performance. Trade negotiations and tariff impacts were temporarily mitigated. The market focused on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data remained resilient, and the Fed's independent decision - making led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies to counter in - fighting were implemented, and measures to stabilize growth in key industrial sectors were expected. Major projects were initiated, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend of new energy and black metals. Overseas, interest - rate cut expectations were still fluctuating, and trade negotiations were ongoing. Attention should be paid to trade - related information as August 1st approached [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been decreasing recently. The total supply this week is expected to be lower than last week, and downstream consumption is expected to increase. The Shanghai copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, and there are conditions for the price to stop falling and rise. The support area is 77000 - 78000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strengthened recently. The supply is expected to increase further, and the demand is mixed. The zinc market is expected to have a staged rebound. It is advisable to be bullish in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - term. The support area is 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be bullish. For the 09 contract, the support area is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton. The alumina market is also expected to be bullish, with the 09 contract's support area at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton and the pressure area at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum alloy market is also recommended to be bullish in the short - term [5][13]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. Short - term bullish thinking is recommended. The support area is 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Lead**: The lead price has rebounded and then consolidated. The inventory has continued to rise, and downstream demand needs further recovery. The lead market is expected to continue to consolidate. The support area is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has a pattern of overall supply surplus. There are signs of supply contraction in some areas, but downstream demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to have a staged rebound, with the upper target at 123000 - 125000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 115000 - 116000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. The support area is 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided. For example, the closing price of copper futures is 79740 yuan/ton, with a 0.05% increase; the closing price of zinc futures is 22945 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% increase; etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short changes, and influencing factors of different varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 79830 yuan/ton, with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22770 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease; etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are provided, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, aluminum inventory and price trend comparison, etc. These charts help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [22][23][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, including the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, aluminum basis and spot - futures price trend, etc., which are used for arbitrage analysis [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of zinc options, the trading volume and open interest changes of aluminum options, etc., which are used for option analysis [65][67][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. For each sub - sector, the report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, option factors, and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9] - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2509) is 504, down 3 with a decline of 0.55%, and its trading volume is 14.38 million lots, a decrease of 0.66 million lots [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR data of different energy - chemical options are provided, including volume PCR and open - interest PCR and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.53, an increase of 0.04, and the open - interest PCR is 0.56, a decrease of 0.05 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various option underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 28.55%, and the weighted implied volatility is 32.63%, an increase of 1.51% [7] 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil Options**: The OPEC + will increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The crude oil market is short - term weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG Options**: The LPG futures are in a short - term bearish market. It is recommended to construct a bearish short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol Options**: The methanol market shows a weak rebound. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The ethylene glycol market is in a narrow - range, weak - bullish oscillation. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene Options**: The polypropylene market is weak. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber Options**: The rubber market shows a low - level consolidation. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA Options**: The PTA market is weak. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13] 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda Options**: The caustic soda market is bullish. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash Options**: The soda ash market is bullish. It is recommended to construct a bull - spread call option strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.3.7 Urea Options - The urea market oscillates under bearish pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

金属期权 2025-07-23 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属震荡偏强，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系快速上涨，适合构 建看涨期权牛市价差组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整偏多，构建现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) ...