美联储主席鲍威尔：政策的影响可能会使美联储偏离其预期目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the RMB is under significant pressure due to the ongoing US-China trade war and Federal Reserve policies, marking the largest strain since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4]. Impact on Import Costs - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD directly increases the import costs of commodities such as oil and iron ore, with a 1% depreciation leading to a cost increase of 0.8-1.2% [4]. - In 2024, China's reliance on foreign oil is projected to reach 73%, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for energy companies, which will compress profit margins in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation [4]. - High-tech product imports, including chips and precision instruments, will also see a cost increase, with companies like SMIC facing a 12% rise in procurement costs for technical equipment [4]. Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to cause the food and consumer goods import price index to rise by 6.3%, with essential items like beef and milk powder experiencing price increases of up to 9.8% [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China is projected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, exceeding the central bank's 3% warning line, complicating monetary policy balancing between growth and inflation control [6]. Debt Implications - The depreciation of the RMB increases the repayment costs for companies and local governments with foreign debt, with a 5% depreciation translating to an additional $140 billion in debt servicing costs for the $2.8 trillion foreign debt [8][9]. - Real estate companies, such as Country Garden and Vanke, are particularly affected, with the proportion of dollar-denominated debt interest payments rising from 12% to 19%, exacerbating cash flow challenges [9]. Capital Outflow Risks - Continuous RMB depreciation poses risks of capital outflow, as foreign investment may decline and domestic capital may seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets, especially given the current high US Federal Reserve interest rates [10]. Export Dynamics - While RMB depreciation theoretically enhances export competitiveness, it may lead to a reliance on low-end manufacturing, with high-tech product export share declining by 2.3 percentage points to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. - The withdrawal of foreign R&D centers and a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia by companies like BMW and Tesla indicate a potential decline in foreign investment attractiveness due to currency volatility [11]. Structural Changes and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that significant currency adjustments often accompany industrial upgrades, and the current low point of the RMB may represent a pivotal moment for China to advance beyond the middle-income trap and into higher value chains [12]. - Short-term challenges are anticipated as the economy adjusts to these changes, necessitating innovation and a robust domestic supply chain to enhance resilience against external shocks [12][13].

有色金属日报 2025-4-14 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价大幅下探后回升，伦铜周涨 5.68%至 9184 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 75710 元/吨。产业 层面，上周三大交易所库存环比减少 3.4 万吨，其中上期所库存减少 4.3 至 18.3 万吨，LME 库存减 少 0.2 至 20.9 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 1.1 至 10.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增加 0.1 万吨。当周铜现 货进口盈亏冲高回落，洋 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low, currently trading around $3042, recovering all losses from the previous night [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%, reaching a high of 4.296%, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns over weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook are dominating short-term market sentiment [1] Trade Policy - U.S. Trade Representative Tai indicated that there will be no easing of tariff policies in the short term, emphasizing the necessity of short-term pain for long-term competitiveness [3] - Tariffs on 57 trading partners have come into effect, reinforcing U.S. trade barriers and contributing to ongoing global trade tensions [3] - The U.S. is engaged in negotiations with over 50 countries, but a hardline stance is maintained, requiring substantial reductions in tariffs from trading partners for any consideration of tariff relief [3] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index fell below 5000, with a cumulative drop of over 12% in four days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $5.8 trillion [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to its highest level since March 2020, indicating widespread market panic [4] - Market expectations suggest a 105 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with over 50% probability for a cut in May [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recovery from recent lows, with potential for significant fluctuations within the range above $2950 [6] - Short-term price movements indicate a challenge around the $3050 level, with key support at $3013 [6] Trading Strategy - Aggressive buying is suggested around $3013, with a stop loss at $2999 and a target of $3053/3076 [7] - For short positions, entry is recommended near $3053, with a stop loss at $3060 and a target of $3033/3013 [7]