Core Insights - The demand for AI chips is experiencing exponential growth, but the cost and complexity of production limit this technology to a few companies. This situation may soon change [1][2]. Group 1: Demand and Production Challenges - The demand for advanced node chips to support AI applications is rapidly increasing, putting pressure on the industry's ability to meet this demand [2][4]. - EUV lithography technology is crucial for manufacturing these chips, but it requires significant investment and has become a major barrier to scaling production [2][6]. - Currently, only five semiconductor manufacturers are using EUV in mass production, which concentrates EUV capabilities in a few companies [6][9]. Group 2: Technological Developments - The transition to smaller transistor sizes is essential for maximizing power efficiency and computational density in AI accelerators and GPUs [4][5]. - High NA EUV is becoming the only viable method for mass production at 1.8nm and below, increasing the demand for EUV capabilities [4][5]. - Research and development efforts are ongoing to improve EUV technology, including new materials and advanced process controls [2][9]. Group 3: Economic and Infrastructure Considerations - The high costs associated with EUV technology, including the price of masks and the operational expenses of EUV tools, remain significant challenges [12][13]. - Government-supported research centers are working to address these economic challenges by improving EUV mask technology and process control [9][12]. - Alternative business models and infrastructure strategies are needed to make EUV accessible to smaller foundries and companies [24][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The AI chip market is expected to grow at least tenfold in the next 5 to 7 years, indicating a strong future demand for EUV technology [7][8]. - The industry's ability to scale EUV technology will determine the next phase of semiconductor manufacturing [26]. - Innovations in light source efficiency and alternative lithography methods will be critical for expanding EUV's application beyond the largest players in the industry [20][22].

举例来说，假设在2009年11月30日购入100元美股（以标普500指数计），那么到了15年以后的2024年11月30日， 该100元会变成550元 。同样的100元，经过 相同的15年时间，在日本股市（日经225）会变成408元，德国股市（DAX）变成348元，英国股市（富时100）变成159元， 中国A股（沪深300）变成111元 ，在香港股市（恒生指数）则缩水到89元。【注：均以当地货币计，不包括红利。】 换句话说，过去15年， 美股的年回报为12% ，领先于同期的日本、德国和英国股市，更是遥遥领先 中国的A股（年回报不到1%） 和港股（年回报为负）。 回顾过去15年，如果我们单看股市的表现，美国股市可以说是一骑绝尘，遥遥领先。 很自然的，大家比较感兴趣的问题是：为什么美股表现这么好？是美国的经济基本面确实好，还是美股吹出了一个大泡泡？ 要回答这个问题，我们首先需要来做一个归因分析，即剖析一下美股相对于其他国家股市的超额回报，主要来自于哪些因素。有学者（Narayan and Greene, 2024）将过去15年美股和美国以外发达国家股市的美元回报做了一个细致对比，统计得出：美股对美国以外发达国家的股 ...

一个策略执行 9 年，带到海外去。 2000 年 2 月，一场抗议活动在硅谷举行。发起者是刚成立一年的 Salesforce，他们雇了 25 人，举着 "No Software" 的牌子，大喊 "software is over"，在客户关系管理（CRM）软件行业巨头 Siebel 客户大会的会 场外游行。 Salesforce 挑战的不只是 Siebel，还有办公软件行业的既定模式：客户一次性采购软件，安装到自己的电 脑中，再由供应商提供付费的维护、更新服务。Salesfore 不把软件直接卖给目标客户，而是借助云服务按 月或年租赁，客户可以通过浏览器使用，即 SaaS（Software as a service，软件即服务）模式。这也是他们 喊出 "No Software" 口号的基础。 SaaS 有天然优势。它能大幅降低用户采购软件的开销，能省去后续维护的麻烦。软件供应商能获得稳定的 订阅收入，可以迅速得到反馈改进软件等。但 SaaS 要求软件供应商需要投入更多的资源开发产品，而且 客户迁移成本低。一旦满足不了客户需求，客户会迅速流失。 当时没有大公司愿意这么做，再加上有需求的客户大都买了 Siebel ...