来源 | 投资实习所 本文为 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读，原文发布于她的 Substack，本篇为直译 改写。 Altimeter Capital 是硅谷顶级科技投资基金，跨越 VC 与二级市场，曾精准押注软件和 AI 浪潮，重仓 OpenAI。2022 年 底，其股东信《Time to get fit》呼吁 Meta 裁员并全面转向 AI，引发硅谷轰动。 Freda Duan 现任 Altimeter 合伙人，公开资料显示她负责 Disruptive Tech 颠覆性科技领域，主攻 AI。 Prediction Market（预测市场）在 2024 年美国大选之后才进入公众视野。在硅谷，推特已被 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 刷 屏。Kalshi 单个周末的数据能让 Robinhood 和 DraftKings 的股价大幅波动。Polymarket 估值高达 $9B，或为史上最高 的"非 AI、零营收"独角兽，投资阵容包括 Trump Jr.、V 神和 Founders Fund。 正如 Freda 原文所说 ...

本文为 Altimeter Capital 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Prediction Market 的深度解读，原文发布于她的 Substack，本篇为直译改写。 Altimeter Capital 是硅谷顶级科技投资基金，跨越 VC 与二级市场，曾精准押注软件和 AI 浪潮，重仓 OpenAI。2022 年底，其股东信《Time to get fit》 呼吁 Meta 裁员并全面转向 AI，引发硅谷轰动。 Freda Duan 现任 Altimeter 合伙人，公开资料显示她负责 Disruptive Tech 颠覆性科技领域，主攻 AI。 Prediction Market（预测市场）在 2024 年美国大选之后才进入公众视野。在硅谷，推特已被 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 刷屏。Kalshi 单个周末的数据能让 Robinhood 和 DraftKings 的股价大幅波动。Polymarket 估值高达 $9B，或为史上最高的"非 AI、零营收"独角兽，投资阵容包括 Trump Jr.、V 神和 Founders Fund。 科技投资的核心是寻找高速且可持续的增长，而最快往往来自 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hanwang Technology's stock performance and financial metrics indicate a mixed outlook, with a slight increase in stock price but a decline in net profit, suggesting potential challenges ahead for the company [1][2]. Financing Summary - On September 17, Hanwang Technology's financing buy-in amounted to 40.70 million yuan, with a net buy of 9.55 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The total financing balance reached 256 million yuan, representing 4.18% of the circulating market value, which is above the 80th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of financing activity [1]. - No shares were sold or repaid in the securities lending market on the same day, with a balance of 0 shares, suggesting a lack of short-selling interest [1]. Business Performance Summary - As of June 30, Hanwang Technology reported a revenue of 813 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.81% [2]. - The company experienced a net loss of 56.73 million yuan, a decrease of 11.66% compared to the previous period, indicating profitability challenges [2]. - The main revenue sources for Hanwang Technology include intelligent interaction products (58.89%), AI terminals (28.70%), and multimodal big data services (10.89%) [1]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders decreased by 10.72% to 56,100, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 12.01% to 3,700 shares [2]. - The largest shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, increased its holdings by 1.77 million shares, totaling 21.75 million shares [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the appointment of Wang Meng as the new president and deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Hefei University of Technology, replacing Zheng Lei, who has taken a new position as the director of the Jiangxi Provincial Education Department [1][3]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Wang Meng, born in December 1984, is a professor and doctoral supervisor, with both bachelor's and doctoral degrees from the University of Science and Technology of China [1][3]. - Zheng Lei, the former president, was born in January 1975 and served as the president of Hefei University of Technology since July 2022 before his recent appointment [1][3]. Group 2: Wang Meng's Background - Wang Meng joined Hefei University of Technology in August 2011 and has held various positions, including the dean of the School of Computer and Information and the School of Software [2][3]. - He became a member of the university's Party Committee and vice president in July 2023, making him one of the youngest deans when he was appointed in 2017 [3]. Group 3: Research and Achievements - Wang Meng's research focuses on artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, and multimedia information processing, and he has received funding from the National Outstanding Youth Science Fund [3]. - He has led over 20 projects, including national key research and development projects and natural science fund projects, and has received several prestigious awards [3]. Group 4: University Overview - Hefei University of Technology is a key national university directly under the Ministry of Education, co-built by the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Anhui Provincial Government [3]. - The university has been recognized as a key construction university under the "211 Project" since 2005 and entered the "Double First Class" initiative in 2017 [3].

Group 1 - The practice team from Hefei University of Technology engaged in social practice in Hangzhou and Yiwu, bridging the gap between academia and industry [1] - At Silan Microelectronics, students observed an automated production line that captures nanometer-level parameter fluctuations, highlighting the importance of "closed-loop control" and "signal processing" in ensuring product quality [1] - At Hikvision's exhibition hall, students experienced advanced applications such as millimeter-wave radar and infrared thermal imaging, emphasizing the integration of application and system architecture design as key problem-solving skills [1] - In Yiwu's international trade city, a virtual anchor in an "AI digital person live broadcast room" showcased products, supported by robust data processing and user behavior analysis technologies, demonstrating the relevance of signal processing and pattern recognition in cross-border e-commerce [1] Group 2 - The practice experience was described as a profound lesson, revealing the capabilities of frontline enterprises and the potential for personal development [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The 27th Annual Meeting of the China Association for Science and Technology featured three prominent forums focusing on "Embodied Intelligent Robots," "Frontiers in Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence," and "Complex Systems Control and Decision-Making in the Intelligent Era" [1][3][6] Group 2: Embodied Intelligent Robots Forum - The forum on "Embodied Intelligent Robots" discussed the autonomy and intelligent evolution of these robots, with experts from various fields such as AI, robotics, and control theory participating [3][4] - Key topics included transformative applications in intelligent manufacturing, smart healthcare, autonomous driving, and home services [3][4] - The forum emphasized the challenges and breakthroughs in enabling autonomous effective actions in complex dynamic environments, highlighting the core role of embodied intelligent robots in driving industrial transformation [3][4] Group 3: Pattern Recognition and AI Forum - The "Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence" forum facilitated discussions on the development directions in these fields, aiming to foster new productive forces and interdisciplinary integration [6] - Notable reports covered topics such as embodied intelligent robots, 3D/4D content creation, and visual perception in unmanned systems [6] - The roundtable discussions focused on new trends and challenges in multimodal large models and generative AI, addressing the transformation of research paradigms and talent cultivation in the field [6] Group 4: Complex Systems Control and Decision-Making Forum - The forum on "Complex Systems Control and Decision-Making in the Intelligent Era" brought together experts to explore the latest research and technological breakthroughs in intelligent control and high-end equipment [8] - Key presentations included advancements in edge intelligence applications and guidance, navigation, and control technologies for space vehicles [8] - The forum aimed to provide academic support and insights for building China's core competitiveness in the intelligent era and fostering new productive forces [8]

Group 1 - The forum focused on national strategic needs and technological frontiers in the fields of pattern recognition and artificial intelligence, gathering nearly 20 experts and representatives from renowned universities, research institutes, and leading enterprises in China [1][3] - The event aimed to foster the cultivation of new productive forces and interdisciplinary integration, injecting new momentum into scientific research innovation and the collaborative development of academic journals [1] Group 2 - Various professors presented specialized reports, including topics such as "3D/4D content creation for arbitrary sparse data," "embodied intelligent robots with emotional intelligence," and "visual perception in unmanned systems" [5][7][11] - A roundtable discussion was held, focusing on new trends and challenges in multimodal large models and generative artificial intelligence, addressing the transformation of research paradigms and talent cultivation in the era of large models [15]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that AI does not understand human emotions or social niceties, such as politeness or gratitude, and operates solely on keyword recognition and semantic patterns [2][3][4] - It highlights that AI's responses are based on pattern recognition from vast datasets rather than genuine understanding or emotional engagement [4][10] - The article suggests that effective communication with AI should be clear and concise, avoiding unnecessary polite phrases that do not enhance the quality of interaction [5][6][19] Communication with AI - AI recognizes low-information words like "please" and "thank you" as noise, which do not contribute additional information to the request [5][7] - The effectiveness of AI communication relies on the clarity and structure of the prompts rather than the politeness of the language used [18][20] - Research indicates that while polite language may activate certain response patterns in service-oriented AI, it does not significantly improve the accuracy of the output [15][16] Practical Recommendations - To enhance AI responsiveness, users should provide specific, clear, and structured prompts, detailing the context and desired outcomes [19][20] - The article advises against relying on polite expressions to improve AI performance, emphasizing that clarity and logical structure are more effective [18][20] - Users are encouraged to focus on the content and format of their requests to achieve better results from AI systems [19]

Group 1 - The 27th China Association for Science and Technology Annual Conference will be held from July 1 to July 31 in Beijing, featuring 1 main forum, 98 thematic forums, and 4 parallel forums [1] - The main forum is scheduled for July 6, with notable speakers including five vice presidents of the China Association for Science and Technology, discussing topics such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, deep-sea technology, artificial intelligence, and agriculture [1] - The conference aims to release major scientific issues, engineering challenges, and industrial technology problems for 2025, establishing a "guiding standard" for the continuous output of original and disruptive scientific achievements [1] Group 2 - The "Frontiers in Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence" thematic forum will take place on July 6, focusing on the development of pattern recognition and artificial intelligence, including breakthroughs and governance [2] - The 2025 China Science and Technology Journal Development Forum, one of the four parallel forums, will be held on July 10, highlighting the growth of high-impact journals in China, with 56 journals ranked in the top three internationally and 24 ranked first in their fields [2] - The forum will feature five key experts presenting reports and will include four thematic discussion sections to explore innovative development paths for Chinese scientific journals [2]

Group 1 - SoftBank's investment strategy has been criticized for causing significant damage to the companies it invests in and distorting industry behavior [1][55] - The venture capital industry is experiencing a herd mentality, where institutions and partners are afraid to make unique decisions, leading to decreased industry returns and cyclical volatility [7][56] - The current investment environment in artificial intelligence is seen as a potential super cycle, but there are concerns about how to participate effectively without investing in highly capital-intensive projects [8][9] Group 2 - Early success in an investment career can build credibility but may also lead to skipping important learning experiences [5] - The importance of maintaining discipline in investment strategies is highlighted, as fear and greed often influence decision-making [7] - The relationship between founders and investors is crucial, with successful founders often benefiting from close collaboration with their investors [13] Group 3 - The traditional venture capital model can coexist with large investment institutions, but smaller firms must navigate the challenges posed by large funds like SoftBank [10] - The investment landscape is shifting, with a need for smaller firms to leverage their strengths in early-stage investments while managing relationships with larger funds [10][56] - The importance of having a clear value proposition and understanding the target market is emphasized when evaluating new investment opportunities [22][23] Group 4 - The experience of investing in companies like Snowflake illustrates the risks of underestimating the speed of changes in the venture capital market [26][27] - The need for a balance between price sensitivity and investment confidence is crucial, as overemphasis on price can lead to missed opportunities [34] - The venture capital industry is cyclical, and while there may be periods of lower returns, historical trends suggest that the industry will eventually normalize [46][47]