美联储巴尔：供应链中断或导致通胀上升 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储巴尔表示，美国经济基础稳固，但他警告称，与关税相关的供应链中断可 能导致经济增长放缓和通胀上升。巴尔强调了小企业的重要性，以及它们在供应链和整体经济中的作 用。他表示，贸易政策给前景蒙上了阴影，增加了不确定性。对小企业来说，潜在的供应链中断"尤其 严重"，部分原因是它们获得信贷的机会较少。他补充道，小企业通常提供不易从其他地方获得的专业 投入，而企业倒闭可能会进一步扰乱供应链。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emerging risks of stagflation in the U.S. and global economy, highlighting the potential for a prolonged economic downturn due to various factors, including supply chain disruptions and political influences on central banks [1][4] - It contrasts the current situation with the temporary supply chain issues experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that the current stagflation could have more severe and lasting impacts on the economy and financial markets [1][3] - The article emphasizes the inefficiencies that may arise from the reorganization of global supply chains, which could lead to increased costs and prices globally, undermining the efficiency gains seen over the past decade [2][3] Group 2 - The politicalization of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, is highlighted as a significant concern, with references to former President Trump's criticisms and threats against the Fed's leadership, which could undermine its independence [3][4] - The article draws parallels between the current economic climate and the stagflation of the late 1970s, suggesting that a weak dollar and political pressure on monetary policy could exacerbate inflationary pressures [3][4] - The potential for retaliatory trade actions resulting from protectionist policies, such as tariffs, is discussed, with historical comparisons to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and its devastating impact on global trade [5]

前纽约联储主席杜德利：在某种程度上，供应链中断是不可避免的。 ...

Group 1 - The supply chain disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies may be turning a corner, as some consumer goods companies have received notifications that U.S. customers will bear the tariff costs for shipments [1] - Jiangsu Huating Personal Care Products Co., which produces toothbrushes and dental floss for Walmart and other retailers, has not yet received orders from Walmart but has received orders from other U.S. clients at pre-tariff prices, with customers absorbing the tariff costs [1] - The competitive apparel industry is still facing pressure, with companies receiving emails demanding price reductions for shipments [2] Group 2 - A manager from Jiangsu Airi Apparel Co. reported that importers believe tariffs may be reduced by the end of May, with the burden shared among Chinese factories, importers, and Walmart, potentially requiring the company to absorb 20%-30% of the costs [2] - The company has 4 million pieces of orders on hand, with half currently backlogged due to previous demands for a 50% price reduction, leading to losses on raw materials [2] - Recent reports indicate that major retailers like Walmart have notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments, with tariffs being paid by U.S. buyers [4] Group 3 - The U.S. flower industry is facing challenges due to rising costs of imported flowers and packaging materials, leading to price increases and loss of customers [5] - Major U.S. retailers have expressed concerns to President Trump about the negative economic impacts of the tariff policies, highlighting supply chain disruptions and potential empty shelves in stores [6] - A survey conducted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade revealed that nearly 50% of foreign trade companies plan to reduce their business with the U.S., while 75.3% intend to explore emerging markets to compensate for reduced exports to the U.S. [6]