最近美国农业部门正面临一个棘手难题——中国买家今年至今未签订任何美国大豆采购合同。这个突如 其来的变化让美国中西部粮仓里堆积如山的大豆面临滞销危机，甚至可能出现丰产不丰收的尴尬局面。 美国大豆协会近日公开发声，向白宫表达强烈担忧：中国市场的需求规模是其他任何地区都无法替代 的。 这场危机背后，是贸易政策调整带来的连锁反应。自中美贸易摩擦升级以来，中国对美国大豆加征的关 税税率已高达97%，这使得每吨美国大豆到岸价比巴西大豆贵出近千元人民币。与此同时，中国正积极 实施进口多元化战略，最新数据显示，2024年中国从巴西进口的大豆已占总进口量的七成以上。更令美 国农业界忧心的是，中国近期已敲定未来两个月1200万吨的大豆采购订单，这些订单全部花落南美供应 商。 值得注意的是，受冲击最严重的美国中西部农业州，恰恰是现任政府的重要票仓。当地豆农的焦虑情绪 持续蔓延，许多世代经营的家庭农场面临破产风险。有调查报告显示，这些农业地区的自杀率已攀升至 全国平均水平的3.5倍，反映出问题的严重性。 美国豆农陷入困境！中国采购转向令库存积压危机加剧 尽管美国政府宣布了约660亿美元的农业补贴计划，但业内人士指出，这难以弥补失去中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that trade policy adjustments and export restrictions on yttrium will not significantly impact its cost advantages or operational performance [1] Group 1 - The company reassured investors that increased tariffs and long-term export bans on yttrium will not alter its cost advantages [1] - The company will continue to monitor policy changes and ensure supply chain security [1]

加拿大政府最初追随美国对华加征关税。2024年，加拿大对中国电动汽车征收了100%的关税，对钢铝产品关税 提高到25%。这些措施覆盖了超过80亿美元的中方商品。加拿大可能希望通过这种方式向美国展示忠诚，以获得 贸易上的回报。 然而事与愿违，加拿大不仅没有得到美国的特殊照顾，反而遭到了中方的强力反制措施。从去年对华出口值260 亿人民币到如今几乎归零，加拿大油菜籽产业遭受了沉重打击。这些数字背后是加拿大无数农民的生计受到影响 和加工厂的裁员减产。 面对农业界的强烈抗议，渥太华表示已派出官员跟随贸易代表团共同访华。麦克唐纳部长表示，加拿大联邦政府 尚未直接获悉中方的具体要求，但正在考虑这个问题。 更令加拿大农民着急的是，在中方实施反制措施的同时，已经找到了油菜籽的替代供应源。中粮集团已与澳大利 亚签署了5万吨新季油菜籽订单，预计10月就能到货。 9月9日，在加拿大联邦和省级农业部长会议后，部长西斯·麦克唐纳在作出表态："我们正在讨论放宽对中国电动 汽车加征的关税。"这位部长刚刚在马尼托巴省首府温尼伯参加完会议，会上油菜籽行业团体详细陈述了生产商 正在遭受的巨大损失。面对国内农业压力，渥太华不得不重新审视其对华贸易 ...

Group 1 - The core issue facing the U.S. retail industry is the uncertainty caused by fluctuating tariffs, which disrupts the planning and ordering processes for holiday merchandise [1][2][4] - Retailers are experiencing significant challenges in managing their inventory and supply chains, with companies like Balsam Hill having to drastically reduce their holiday product offerings due to tariff adjustments [1][2] - The toy industry is particularly affected, with manufacturers delaying production schedules and struggling to stock up on holiday toys in time for the season [2][4] Group 2 - Consumers are likely to face two main problems this holiday season: product shortages and rising prices, as many retailers are cutting back on holiday goods to avoid high tariffs [4][5] - A recent survey by the National Retail Federation indicates that 67% of consumers have started back-to-school shopping, the highest percentage since tracking began in 2018, with many expressing concerns about potential price increases due to tariffs [4][5] - The economic uncertainty is leading consumers to seek out summer promotions and more affordable brands, with over half of respondents in a Deloitte survey planning to cut back on discretionary spending to accommodate rising prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ethiopia is considering adjustments to its coffee export strategy in response to the impact of U.S. tariffs, which are expected to significantly affect its coffee export revenue [1] Group 1: Export Strategy Adjustments - The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority plans to strengthen trade relations with existing markets such as China, Japan, Germany, and Italy [1] - The country aims to expand coffee exports to the Middle East and other regions, targeting a total of 20 countries in the new fiscal year [1] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. government will impose a 10% tariff on coffee imported from Ethiopia, which is projected to reduce the country's coffee export revenue by approximately 35% [1] - The Ethiopian authorities assert that they will not accept any actions that could harm the coffee industry [1] Group 3: Ethiopia's Coffee Production Status - Ethiopia is recognized as the largest coffee producer in Africa and the fifth-largest exporter of Arabica coffee beans globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest tariff threats from President Trump are causing significant anxiety in global markets, with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% set to be implemented on countries that have not reached trade agreements by July 4 [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. government plans to send out tariff notifications to approximately 12 countries, with a maximum tariff rate of 70%, which is higher than the previously announced 50% [1]. - The implementation of these tariffs is scheduled to begin on August 1, following a 90-day negotiation window that ends on July 9 [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The shift in strategy from complex negotiations to unilateral ultimatums reflects the administration's frustration with ongoing trade talks, particularly with major partners like Japan and the EU [2]. - So far, only a few countries have successfully negotiated agreements with the U.S., such as the UK, which maintained a 10% base tariff, and Vietnam, which reduced tariffs on certain goods from 46% to 20% [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The aggressive trade strategy is creating significant uncertainty in the global economy, with markets closely monitoring the outcomes of the impending tariff notifications and their potential ripple effects [2].

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic signals a prolonged period of high inflation in the U.S., suggesting that businesses may take a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade policies, which provides a basis for the Fed to delay interest rate cuts [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [3] - A structural analysis reveals that the public sector added 73,000 jobs in June, with state and local education contributing 64,000, while the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, indicating a disparity in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Bostic warns that current inflationary pressures differ from traditional models, driven by trade policy adjustments and geopolitical risks, leading to a steady and persistent upward trend in prices [3] - The market's expectations for a policy shift have been impacted, with the probability of maintaining interest rates in July exceeding 95%, and expectations for rate cuts in the year reduced from three to two [5] - The economic landscape is characterized by contradictions, with nominal wage growth at 5.1% supporting consumption, while real wages have experienced negative growth for four consecutive months, eroding purchasing power [5] Group 3 - The Fed's cautious stance reflects the difficulty in balancing policy amid resilient yet fragile economic data, as businesses exhaust their ability to avoid price increases and the long-term effects of trade policy adjustments remain unclear [8] - Market attention is shifting towards the fall, awaiting more signals on inflation trends and the labor market to determine if September could mark a turning point for interest rate cuts [8]

Core Point - Iraq has lifted restrictions on chicken imports from Brazil, which is expected to enhance trade relations and boost Brazil's poultry exports [1] Group 1 - The decision by Iraq to cancel the import restrictions on Brazilian chicken is a significant development for the Brazilian poultry industry [1] - This move is anticipated to increase Brazil's market share in the Middle Eastern poultry market [1] - The lifting of the ban may lead to increased revenue for Brazilian poultry producers, contributing positively to the overall economy [1]

Core Insights - In 2024, China's UCO (Used Cooking Oil) export volume reached a record high of 2,950.79 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.44% compared to 2023 [3] - The United States emerged as the largest destination for UCO exports from China, accounting for 42.94% of total exports, with a significant year-on-year growth of 51.9% [3] - The cancellation of UCO export tax rebates starting December 1, 2024, led to a sharp decline in export volumes, indicating the impact of policy changes on export decisions [3][7] Export Trends - The total UCO export volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2,124.54 thousand tons, reflecting a 54.63% increase year-on-year [3] - November 2024 saw a peak in UCO exports at 434.05 thousand tons, breaking previous records before the tax rebate cancellation [3] - The top six destinations for UCO exports in 2024 were the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, Spain, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] Market Dynamics - Following the U.S. tariff policy changes, Chinese UCO exporters shifted focus to other markets, particularly Europe and Southeast Asia, with exports to the Netherlands and Spain increasing significantly [6] - From January to April 2025, UCO exports to the Netherlands and Spain totaled 237.11 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 63.11% [6] - The U.S. market saw a decline in UCO exports from China, with a drop of 34.04% year-on-year in early 2025 [7] Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic waste oil market is experiencing low trading sentiment, with a 20% decrease in waste oil collection compared to the previous year [7] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has led to increased pressure on domestic UCO enterprises, resulting in profit margins being compressed to a range of 50-100 yuan per ton [7] - The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic waste oil market has cooled significantly compared to 2024, with businesses adopting a cautious approach to avoid potential losses [7]

Group 1 - The Russian military conducted large-scale attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure, including design bureaus, weapon production facilities, and drone assembly plants, in response to what it termed Ukrainian terrorism [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that the Russian attacks covered almost the entire territory of Ukraine, with over 400 drones and more than 40 missiles used in the assault, resulting in casualties [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 20%, marking the first rate cut in over two years, citing easing inflation pressures but ongoing domestic demand exceeding supply [1] Group 2 - The European Union announced the end of trade preference policies for Ukrainian agricultural products, reinstating tariffs and quotas that had been suspended since June 2022, following protests from EU farmers [2] - The EU's decision to terminate the tariff exemptions was due to concerns that low-cost Ukrainian agricultural products were disrupting local markets [2] - Ongoing negotiations are taking place between the European Commission and Ukraine regarding a new agreement on agricultural trade [2]