Core Viewpoint - Ethiopia is considering adjustments to its coffee export strategy in response to the impact of U.S. tariffs, which are expected to significantly affect its coffee export revenue [1] Group 1: Export Strategy Adjustments - The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority plans to strengthen trade relations with existing markets such as China, Japan, Germany, and Italy [1] - The country aims to expand coffee exports to the Middle East and other regions, targeting a total of 20 countries in the new fiscal year [1] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. government will impose a 10% tariff on coffee imported from Ethiopia, which is projected to reduce the country's coffee export revenue by approximately 35% [1] - The Ethiopian authorities assert that they will not accept any actions that could harm the coffee industry [1] Group 3: Ethiopia's Coffee Production Status - Ethiopia is recognized as the largest coffee producer in Africa and the fifth-largest exporter of Arabica coffee beans globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest tariff threats from President Trump are causing significant anxiety in global markets, with new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% set to be implemented on countries that have not reached trade agreements by July 4 [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The U.S. government plans to send out tariff notifications to approximately 12 countries, with a maximum tariff rate of 70%, which is higher than the previously announced 50% [1]. - The implementation of these tariffs is scheduled to begin on August 1, following a 90-day negotiation window that ends on July 9 [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Challenges - The shift in strategy from complex negotiations to unilateral ultimatums reflects the administration's frustration with ongoing trade talks, particularly with major partners like Japan and the EU [2]. - So far, only a few countries have successfully negotiated agreements with the U.S., such as the UK, which maintained a 10% base tariff, and Vietnam, which reduced tariffs on certain goods from 46% to 20% [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The aggressive trade strategy is creating significant uncertainty in the global economy, with markets closely monitoring the outcomes of the impending tariff notifications and their potential ripple effects [2].

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic signals a prolonged period of high inflation in the U.S., suggesting that businesses may take a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade policies, which provides a basis for the Fed to delay interest rate cuts [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [3] - A structural analysis reveals that the public sector added 73,000 jobs in June, with state and local education contributing 64,000, while the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, indicating a disparity in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Bostic warns that current inflationary pressures differ from traditional models, driven by trade policy adjustments and geopolitical risks, leading to a steady and persistent upward trend in prices [3] - The market's expectations for a policy shift have been impacted, with the probability of maintaining interest rates in July exceeding 95%, and expectations for rate cuts in the year reduced from three to two [5] - The economic landscape is characterized by contradictions, with nominal wage growth at 5.1% supporting consumption, while real wages have experienced negative growth for four consecutive months, eroding purchasing power [5] Group 3 - The Fed's cautious stance reflects the difficulty in balancing policy amid resilient yet fragile economic data, as businesses exhaust their ability to avoid price increases and the long-term effects of trade policy adjustments remain unclear [8] - Market attention is shifting towards the fall, awaiting more signals on inflation trends and the labor market to determine if September could mark a turning point for interest rate cuts [8]

Core Point - Iraq has lifted restrictions on chicken imports from Brazil, which is expected to enhance trade relations and boost Brazil's poultry exports [1] Group 1 - The decision by Iraq to cancel the import restrictions on Brazilian chicken is a significant development for the Brazilian poultry industry [1] - This move is anticipated to increase Brazil's market share in the Middle Eastern poultry market [1] - The lifting of the ban may lead to increased revenue for Brazilian poultry producers, contributing positively to the overall economy [1]

Core Insights - In 2024, China's UCO (Used Cooking Oil) export volume reached a record high of 2,950.79 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.44% compared to 2023 [3] - The United States emerged as the largest destination for UCO exports from China, accounting for 42.94% of total exports, with a significant year-on-year growth of 51.9% [3] - The cancellation of UCO export tax rebates starting December 1, 2024, led to a sharp decline in export volumes, indicating the impact of policy changes on export decisions [3][7] Export Trends - The total UCO export volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2,124.54 thousand tons, reflecting a 54.63% increase year-on-year [3] - November 2024 saw a peak in UCO exports at 434.05 thousand tons, breaking previous records before the tax rebate cancellation [3] - The top six destinations for UCO exports in 2024 were the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, Spain, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] Market Dynamics - Following the U.S. tariff policy changes, Chinese UCO exporters shifted focus to other markets, particularly Europe and Southeast Asia, with exports to the Netherlands and Spain increasing significantly [6] - From January to April 2025, UCO exports to the Netherlands and Spain totaled 237.11 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 63.11% [6] - The U.S. market saw a decline in UCO exports from China, with a drop of 34.04% year-on-year in early 2025 [7] Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic waste oil market is experiencing low trading sentiment, with a 20% decrease in waste oil collection compared to the previous year [7] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has led to increased pressure on domestic UCO enterprises, resulting in profit margins being compressed to a range of 50-100 yuan per ton [7] - The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic waste oil market has cooled significantly compared to 2024, with businesses adopting a cautious approach to avoid potential losses [7]

Group 1 - The Russian military conducted large-scale attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure, including design bureaus, weapon production facilities, and drone assembly plants, in response to what it termed Ukrainian terrorism [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that the Russian attacks covered almost the entire territory of Ukraine, with over 400 drones and more than 40 missiles used in the assault, resulting in casualties [1] - The Central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 20%, marking the first rate cut in over two years, citing easing inflation pressures but ongoing domestic demand exceeding supply [1] Group 2 - The European Union announced the end of trade preference policies for Ukrainian agricultural products, reinstating tariffs and quotas that had been suspended since June 2022, following protests from EU farmers [2] - The EU's decision to terminate the tariff exemptions was due to concerns that low-cost Ukrainian agricultural products were disrupting local markets [2] - Ongoing negotiations are taking place between the European Commission and Ukraine regarding a new agreement on agricultural trade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for May remained stable compared to April, ending a four-month decline, influenced by temporary tariff suspensions that boosted optimism [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index for May was roughly flat compared to April, marking the end of a four-month downward trend [1] - Initial data in early May indicated a decline in confidence, but a recovery was observed in the latter half of the month due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs [1] - Consumers showed improved expectations regarding the business environment after mid-May, likely a direct result of adjustments in trade policy [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - Despite the positive changes in consumer confidence, overall income stagnation led to a decrease in satisfaction with personal financial situations, offsetting the optimistic trends [1] - Generally, consumers do not perceive the economic outlook as worse than the previous month, yet they maintain a high level of concern about the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant consensus reached between China and the United States regarding tariff adjustments, which is expected to positively impact bilateral trade and stimulate economic growth for both nations [1][3][4] - The adjustment of tariffs is seen as a crucial step not only for China and the U.S. but also for global economic stability, as it may influence other countries, including vulnerable economies [3][6] - Canada's response to the U.S.-China agreement indicates a potential shift in its trade policy towards China, suggesting that Canada may seek dialogue to resolve trade issues [4][6][9] Group 2 - The articles emphasize that the trade policy adjustments between China and the U.S. could have a ripple effect on international trade dynamics, necessitating Canada to reassess its trade stance and approach towards China [6][8] - The successful negotiations between China and the U.S. are framed as a model for other nations, encouraging a rational and long-term perspective in trade policy formulation [3][9] - The overall context suggests that the adjustments in trade relations are not merely bilateral events but are interconnected within the framework of global economic interdependence, highlighting the importance of cooperation and dialogue among nations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr highlights the potential risks to the U.S. economy from trade policy adjustments, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions that could lead to both economic slowdown and increased inflationary pressures [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - Despite the current robustness of the U.S. economy, trade policy changes could trigger significant supply chain volatility that warrants close attention [1] - Barr emphasizes that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a critical role in the economic system, serving as essential nodes in supply chains and providing specialized production factors [1] - Historical experiences indicate that supply chain disruptions can have multiplier effects, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, where shortages led to prolonged industry shutdowns and persistent price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Risks to SMEs - SMEs are particularly vulnerable to risks due to limited access to credit and insufficient financial reserves, making them more susceptible to operational pressures in the event of supply chain interruptions [1] - If trade policy uncertainties continue, similar scenarios to those experienced during the pandemic could reoccur, potentially weakening economic growth momentum and exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - While Barr did not specify direct policy measures, he stressed the importance of policy transparency and stable expectations, urging that trade policies should consider their impact on microeconomic entities, especially SMEs [2] - The current economic landscape in the U.S. is characterized by dual challenges of inflationary pressures and slowing growth, reflecting concerns about the spillover effects of trade policies [2] - The trajectory of this policy debate may significantly influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions [2]

Core Point - The UK government has announced a reduction of tariffs on ethanol imported from the United States to zero [1] Group 1 - The decision is expected to enhance trade relations between the UK and the US, particularly in the biofuels sector [1] - This move may lead to increased imports of US ethanol, benefiting American producers and potentially lowering prices for UK consumers [1] - The policy change aligns with the UK government's broader strategy to promote renewable energy sources and reduce carbon emissions [1]